It's always a small sample size problem, but let's look back at the past few seasons (teams in Bold are Super Bowl entrants, teams underlined are in the conference championship game):
2020
KC - (14-2 overall, 4-1 after 12/1)
BUF - (13-3, 5-0 after 12/1)
PIT - 12-4, 1-4 after 12/1
TEN - 11-5, 3-2 after 12/1
BAL - 11-5, 5-1 after 12/1
CLE - 11-5, 3-2 after 12/1
IND - 11-5, 4-1 after 12/31
GB - 13-3, 5-0 after 12/1)
NO - 12-4, 3-2 after 12/1
SEA - 12-4, 4-1 after 12/1
WAS - 7-9, 3-2 after 12/1
TB - 11-5, 4-0 after 12/1
LAR - 10-6, 3-2 after 12/1
CHI - 8-8, 3-2 after 12/1
2019
BAL - 14-2, 5-0 after 12/1
KC - 12-4, 5-0 after 12/1
NE - 12-4, 2-3 after 12/1
HOU - 10-6, 3-2 after 12/1
BUF - 10-6, 1-3 after 12/1
TEN - 9-7 - 3-2 after 12/1
SF - 13-3, 3-2 after 12/1
GB - 13-3, 5-0 after 12/1
NO - 13-3, 3-1 after 12/1
PHI - 9-7, 4-1 after 12/1
SEA - 11-5, 2-3 after 12/1
MIN - 10-6, 2-3 after 12/1