What appears to be a big mistake

[nazaquad]

The statistics show that because about 10 times more QBs are drafted after the first round than in the first. Numbers are easy to twist. This stat means squat.

Exaclty correct. So the experts advise not to draft a QB in round one becasue it is too risky for the value. Exaclty the point and thank you.

 

[CardinalChris]

No, it doesn't mean anything unless you know the avwerage number of QBs drafted. In fact, if 90% of the QBs are drafted rounds 2-7, and 5 out of 40 SB winners were first round picks (mind you those are skewed because of primitive scouting practices early in the league), then 10% of the QBs drafted (those in the first round) are responsible for 13% of the SB wins.

Also skewing the numbers of multiple win QBs. If a guy like Brady wins 3, then that means those 3 wins were the product of one great pick, not 3 seperate GMs picking lower round guys who won SBs.

Your logic is flawed. You are making the number match what you want to find.

 

[nazaquad]

This does not say that Matt Lienhart has no talent to win a Super Bowl. He does that. But the odds for him to do it with the Arizona is very, very slim. That's all the statistics say.

 

[RedForeman]

It is strictly a statistical analysis. One used by insurance companies to divulge policy.

Another potential candidate for the Bill's front office.

 

[jmr667]

is by taking Matt Leinhart in this year's mock draft. I have thoroughly researched this situation and have become alarmed by the statistical.

It seems as if only 5 quarteback player positions have won a Supper Bowl while being with the team that drafted them in the first round. Ever since the merger of the NFL and AFL.

That statistical evidence indicates we should have taken a lineman perhaps. Odds are opposed to the team.

So what are the percentages of undrafted QB's going to the Super Bowl? Should we have stayed with Warner? Or does his draft status not matter because he was free agent signing?
What round would be the best to pick a QB to give the highest percent chance of winning the Super Bowl?

If you think your stats are going to help us determine who will or won't win the Super Bowl then you need to be able to make predictions. I myself promise to take your stats seriously if you can correctly predict the Super Bowl winners for 3 of the next 5 years before the regular seasons start

 

[football karma]

len Dawson and Namath before merger. My analysis said since merger. Joe Namath was drafted in NFL by Cardinals too!

A few things --

The topic is SB winning QB's drafted in the first round-- I included both the QB's pre merger who have won as compared to all SB's -- apples to apples.

more importantly:

your analysis is simplistic to the point of misleading by comparing a very limited population (QB's picked in the first round) against a very broad population (ALL other ways to acquire a QB).

It suggests that a team needs to get its QB from somewhere other than the first round -- but how and where? Is the second round better? The third? The fourth? Trade? Free agency?

For your analysis to have any meaning at all you have to look at all SB winning QBs, list how their teams acquired them, and then rank each method.

What you will find is that more SB winning QBs came from the first round of the draft than any other individual round in the draft or from undrafted free agency.

 

[nazaquad]

A few things --

The topic is SB winning QB's drafted in the first round-- I included both the QB's pre merger who have won as compared to all SB's -- apples to apples.

more importantly:

your analysis is simplistic to the point of misleading by comparing a very limited population (QB's picked in the first round) against a very broad population (ALL other ways to acquire a QB).

It suggests that a team needs to get its QB from somewhere other than the first round -- but how and where? Is the second round better? The third? The fourth? Trade? Free agency?

For your analysis to have any meaning at all you have to look at all SB winning QBs, list how their teams acquired them, and then rank each method.

What you will find is that more SB winning QBs came from the first round of the draft than any other individual round in the draft or from undrafted free agency.

The topic is not SB winning QB's drafted in the first round. The topic is QB's that won the SB with the team that drafted them in the first round. I know, because I STARTED THE TOPIC. Big, big difference.

You can take your view point and expound on it in your own thread to be sure, but it is not of relevant here for this discussion.

 

[AzCards21]

So basically when we get to the Super Bowl either Lienart or Navarre will be our QB. Bases covered. That Denny is one smart SOB.

 

[vinnymac]

is by taking Matt Leinhart in this year's mock draft. I have thoroughly researched this situation and have become alarmed by the statistical.

It seems as if only 5 quarteback player positions have won a Supper Bowl while being with the team that drafted them in the first round. Ever since the merger of the NFL and AFL.

That statistical evidence indicates we should have taken a lineman perhaps. Odds are opposed to the team.

in the words of ron white

"The next time you have a thought. Let it go"

 

[CardLogic]

The topic is not SB winning QB's drafted in the first round. The topic is QB's that won the SB with the team that drafted them in the first round. I know, because I STARTED THE TOPIC. Big, big difference.

You can take your view point and expound on it in your own thread to be sure, but it is not of relevant here for this discussion.

Go away NEM!!!

 

[Pariah]

The topic is not SB winning QB's drafted in the first round. The topic is QB's that won the SB with the team that drafted them in the first round. I know, because I STARTED THE TOPIC. Big, big difference.

Okay, but you still haven't answered the question--what's a better way to get a QB? How many Superbowls were won by these 6 QBs--certainly more than 6 (Aikman won multiple SBs, so did Bradshaw...was Montana a 1st rd pick?). As a percentage of SBs played, I bet QBs drafted in the first round by the team they took to the SB have more wins than any other such narrow slice of QB-acquisition category.

And, you might want to think about including Elway in you analysis. Even though he was drafted by Indy, he was never part of their organization.

 

[joeshmo]

Drafting a 1st round QB.

60% of the time it works everytime.

 

[BACH]

It is strictly a statistical analysis. One used by insurance companies to divulge policy.

If you want to do it right , then include more factors...

Make an analysis where you factor in the talent level of every team that drafted a QB in the first.

The numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the truth either. QB is the marque position in football, so teams are always looking for the next great QB and when a crappy team has a shot at getting a top QB they take him. So you end up having a guy playing the hardest position in football usually without fetting much help from his teammates.

In the last 10 drafts only one (Two including Leinart) "can't miss franchise" QB has landed on an established, talented team. That guy is now the youngest QB ever to win a SB.

 

[Pariah]

I did the math for you. Of the 40 Super Bowls, 12 have been won by QBs that were drafted by the Championship team (Bradshaw: 4, Griese: 2, McMahon: 1, Simms: 1, Aikman:3, Roethlisberger: 1...if you add-in Elway's 2, then these numbers go up, obviously). That's 30% of the Championships since the merger.

I'll lay down the challenge once again--by your own benchmark of effectiveness (.300)--what's a better way to acquire a championship quarterback?

 

[nazaquad]

If you want to do it right ...

I did do it right. I stated a statistical report fo what it is - QB's that have won a Supper Bowl with the team that drafted them in the first round. It is nearly cut and dried.

If you would like to some thing else and different, please do so and I look forward to its content.

My report is done as it is and it right. Right on, also!

 

[CardLogic]

I did do it right. I stated a statistical report fo what it is - QB's that have won a Supper Bowl with the team that drafted them in the first round. It is nearly cut and dried.

If you would like to some thing else and different, please do so and I look forward to its content.

My report is done as it is and it right. Right on, also!

Does anyone else smell clam chowder or is it just me!

 

[Pariah]

Does anyone else smell clam chowder or is it just me!

I don't think so. Style's different.

 

[nazaquad]

I did the math for you. Of the 40 Super Bowls, 12 have been won by QBs that were drafted by the Championship team (Bradshaw: 4, Griese: 2, McMahon: 1, Simms: 1, Aikman:3, Roethlisberger: 1...if you add-in Elway's 2, then these numbers go up, obviously). That's 30% of the Championships since the merger.

I'll lay down the challenge once again--by your own benchmark of effectiveness (.300)--what's a better way to acquire a championship quarterback?

Do you try to intentionally skew my report to make it look foolish? Because as I have stated (and overstated), QB's drafted in first round by teams that they won the Supper Bowl with since the merger. Griese was drafted in 1967, before the merger. If I add in Elway it wouldn't make my report valid.

The concept is the risk involved for the value by team. Colts took risk drafting Elway. Backfired. bad value. So don't count him!

Perhaps my lack of command of writing skills is making people misundstand this simple concept.

 

[Pariah]

Do you try to intentionally skew my report to make it look foolish? Because as I have stated (and overstated), QB's drafted in first round by teams that they won the Supper Bowl with since the merger. Griese was drafted in 1967, before the merger. If I add in Elway it wouldn't make my report valid.

The concept is the risk involved for the value by team. Colts took risk drafting Elway. Backfired. bad value. So don't count him!

Perhaps my lack of command of writing skills is making people misundstand this simple concept.

Perhaps.

Or, perhaps we're perplexed as to why you're so married to the subjective parameters you set up. Seems like you're more interested in the method than getting to the end-goal of an accurate assesment.

Who are the 6 QBs, then, in your ever-so-rigid "report?"

 

[CardLogic]

I don't think so. Style's different.

You think so...

A newbie that starts two threads, one of which tell the admins how to better run the site, the other dissing Cards # 1 pick as a big mistake. Then on top of that refusing to see the validity of the logical reasoning of the posts opposing his viewpoint.

Seems oddly familiar...

But what the heck, I don't care either way... I found NEM amusing in a sick sort of way!

 

[nurnay]

in the words of ron white

"The next time you have a thought. Let it go"

 

[nurnay]

I did do it right. I stated a statistical report fo what it is - QB's that have won a Supper Bowl with the team that drafted them in the first round. It is nearly cut and dried.

If you would like to some thing else and different, please do so and I look forward to its content.

My report is done as it is and it right. Right on, also!

I bet you're a real hoot at parties.

 

[nazaquad]

Perhaps.

Or, perhaps we're perplexed as to why you're so married to the subjective parameters you set up. Seems like you're more interested in the method than getting to the end-goal of an accurate assesment.

Who are the 6 QBs, then, in your ever-so-rigid "report?"

THERE


ARE


ONLY


FIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Crazy Canuck]

is by taking Matt Leinhart in this year's mock draft. I have thoroughly researched this situation and have become alarmed by the statistical.

It seems as if only 5 quarteback player positions have won a Supper Bowl while being with the team that drafted them in the first round. Ever since the merger of the NFL and AFL.

That statistical evidence indicates we should have taken a lineman perhaps. Odds are opposed to the team.

Irrelevant: We're planning on winning the SUPER Bowl...

 

[football karma]

This has to be the silliest exercise is psuedo analsysis. I will add to it:

The Cards are in big trouble because:

1. No QB taken at #10 in the draft has ever won the SB
2. No QB from USC has ever won the SB
3. Left handed QBs have only won 2 SBs out of 40
4. Teams that have red as a primary jersey color have only won 25% of the Superbowls