What is the plan?

[Cheesebeef]

On at least a dozen different occasions in the 16 months prior to the Eric deal, various media types reported that we were trying to trade Bledsoe. Maybe they were all wrong but I suspect they knew what some of us refused to believe (and by some of us, I mean me at the time). There was no market, or rather there was no return acceptable to McD. But Bledsoe's style of play, his knees and his agent apparently made him a less than desirable trade target.

Personally I think the front office knew we were going to have to tank. I don't think they intended to do it until after the trade deadline but I can't believe they were stupid enough to truly believe that team could compete for a playoff spot. I just think they were walking the line between trying to sell seats and trying to become a true contender.

fair enough.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The Suns are on their fourth year of being bad. This seems more than enough.

I prefer the Suns keep their draft pick in the 2019 draft because they have more than earned it, however, if they protect it and trade it, I'm not going to get upset either because the Suns are not invested in scouting this season.

When you say a certain number of years of being bad is “more than enough” you’re essentially admitting that you don’t understand how the hinkie plan works or Steve’s (and my) position in it.

 

[Mainstreet]

I don't know what the Suns are doing for scouting, no one here does. Maybe they're going to use a scouting service, maybe they have some scouts in mind already, maybe they are promoting from within, maybe they could care less and will be trading the picks regardless? We just don't know. But I don't know what to say about the 4 bad years because I can't figure out why anyone expected anything different once we decided to bottom out for draft position.

You can't control how the lottery goes and you have no control over the quality of the draft class. The Hinkie plan was based on losing and losing and losing until you get the superstar(s) you're in search of. Had Embiid's injuries derailed him and had Hinkie been allowed to continue and had the NBA not changed the lottery rules, I'm quite confident Philly would be in a dogfight with us for Zion this season. IOW, it was never a 1 year or 2 year or even a 5 year plan, it's tank until you get what you need to compete at the highest level. If we weren't prepared to do that we should have never tanked.

Johns Shumate scouted the ASU vs Kansas game for what it is worth.

In regard to Hinkie, this is why they changed the lottery odds.

As to the four bad years, the moves the Suns made in the 2016 draft doomed them. It was not only selecting Bender and Chriss but trading the rights to Bogdon as well. This left the cupboard bare along with the slow development of Jackson.

Also McDonough did not make the right moves in free agency, e.g., Chandler and Ariza.

 

[elindholm]

When you say a certain number of years of being bad is “more than enough” you’re essentially admitting that you don’t understand how the hinkie plan works or Steve’s (and my) position in it.

There are three problems with the Hinkie plan:

1. You have to get really lucky in the lottery. I can't remember the numbers, but the Sixers' chance of drafting as high as they did, even given their lottery positions, was something like 20%.

2. You have to be in drafts that have generational players and have the wisdom (or luck) to take them. The Sixers hit on Embiid and Simmons, but whiffed on Okafor and Fultz. Fortunately for them, they had such a surplus of top picks -- and Embiid and Simmons are good enough -- that they'll get away with it.

3. The new lottery rules specifically discourage a Hinkie-like prolonged tank. The league decided that it was bad for the game, so they've put a stop to it.

We go through this every time a new league power emerges. A few years ago, it was all about how to become the next Warriors. Now it's about how to become the next Sixers. Each franchise's path is different, and the Suns will have to figure out their own way to succeed. If trying to copy the latest success model was all that it took, you'd see every bad team in the league doing it.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Johns Shumate scouted the ASU vs Kansas game for what it is worth.

In regard to Hinkie, this is why they changed the lottery odds.

As to the four bad years, the moves the Suns made in the 2016 draft doomed them. It was not only selecting Bender and Chriss but trading the rights to Bogdon as well. This left the cupboard bare along with the slow development of Jackson.

Also McDonough did not make the right moves in free agency, e.g., Chandler and Ariza.

In addition we’ve had cracks lottery tix with 1st or 2nd picks in the second round and have come up empty with Ulis and Reed and who knows about okobo at this point. Certainly no surprise homeruns.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

There are three problems with the Hinkie plan:

1. You have to get really lucky in the lottery. I can't remember the numbers, but the Sixers' chance of drafting as high as they did, even given their lottery positions, was something like 20%.

2. You have to be in drafts that have generational players and have the wisdom (or luck) to take them. The Sixers hit on Embiid and Simmons, but whiffed on Okafor and Fultz. Fortunately for them, they had such a surplus of top picks -- and Embiid and Simmons are good enough -- that they'll get away with it.

3. The new lottery rules specifically discourage a Hinkie-like prolonged tank. The league decided that it was bad for the game, so they've put a stop to it.

We go through this every time a new league power emerges. A few years ago, it was all about how to become the next Warriors. Now it's about how to become the next Sixers. Each franchise's path is different, and the Suns will have to figure out their own way to succeed. If trying to copy the latest success model was all that it took, you'd see every bad team in the league doing it.

Never said the hinkie plan is flawless. No plan is. A lot of luck is involved in almost all contenders (other than LA).

But if you recall I’m not a hinkie-come-lately guy. I didn’t wait until the sixers started winning to espouse support of this rebuild program. Initially I was really skeptical, like when they traded Michael carter whatshisname for picks. But I quickly around to that when I realized that our front office wasn’t going to attract free agent talent or be particularly good at drafting late (book notwithstanding). I jumped on the tank full throttle early. Not because I thought it was a sure thing. But rather because I read the writing on the wall and relying on luck instead of this front office seemed literally the more likely path to success.

 

[hcsilla]

I hate the Hinkie plan,

Hate or not (I actually don't, moreover I do think it uses unquestionable logic), I'm eager to hear any other healthy alternative to rebuild.

 

[taz02]

I do not follow the Sixers and have no idea what their situation is or was, with either players or coaches.

By irreparable damage I am referring specifically to our rookie coach losing the team and most importantly Booker. We have a max, star player in Booker who is beyond frustrated and yelling at the coach on tv.

I agree that winning will cure all. I'm just not convinced that an average PG will cause the team to win enough games to fix the current problems, maybe it will. If it does it would be great.

By drastic move, I mean parting with our pick and a quality player or two to bring in a top PG or even PF.

I guess the patience question is up to Booker in the end. If he is willing to be patient for a couple more seasons it will probably work ok. What we don't need is to wake up one day and read that Booker has demanded a trade.

 

[Proximo]

With the new lottery system your ability to rebuild is heavily dependent on luck.

I think it will succeed in stopping intentional tanking.

But it may backfire making bad teams bad for a really long time.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

With the new lottery system your ability to rebuild is heavily dependent on luck.

I think it will succeed in stopping intentional tanking.

But it may backfire making bad teams bad for a really long time.

I agree with both points.

 

[taz02]

The 76er's won 28 games Embiids rookie season and 52 his second. Simmons won 52 games his rookie season.

Booker has been on a team that won 23,24,21, and is on pace to be worse this season. IMO there is little to no chance Booker is willing to lose for a couple more seasons.

What happened to the 76ers star player or players and coach during their losing streak?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The 76er's won 28 games Embiids rookie season and 52 his second. Simmons won 52 games his rookie season.

Booker has been on a team that won 23,24,21, and is on pace to be worse this season. IMO there is little to no chance Booker is willing to lose for a couple more seasons.

What happened to the 76ers star player or players and coach during their losing streak?

They didn’t have any. Once they got them those star players started leading to wins. I believe in book long term, but he doesn’t seem to be leading to more wins.

 

[hcsilla]

There are three problems with the Hinkie plan:

1. You have to get really lucky in the lottery. I can't remember the numbers, but the Sixers' chance of drafting as high as they did, even given their lottery positions, was something like 20%.

We had a long debate about that and I did suspect that I could not convince you, but I still think that you wrong.

You can call it luck as long as you wish that the Sixers had 20% of chance of getting those picks but the fact that you keep missing is that this is still higher than any other team had because of the chances that the Hinkie-plan did accumulate for the Sixers.

You do not compare Sixers' chances to the field, you do it to other single team's.

2. You have to be in drafts that have generational players and have the wisdom (or luck) to take them. The Sixers hit on Embiid and Simmons, but whiffed on Okafor and Fultz. Fortunately for them, they had such a surplus of top picks -- and Embiid and Simmons are good enough -- that they'll get away with it.

Drafts usually have generational players and it doesn't take rocket science to take Ben Simmons. Embiid was also a generational talent, taking him at #3 was a tough decision because of his injury history, Hinkie took the (calculated) risk and (till now) it seems that he won.

And again, it was not a fortune that they had such a surplus of picks. It was exactly the result of the Hinkie-plan that they had more chance of picking high than any other team did.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I'm surprised you found it interesting. IMO Dave King is an idiot and always has been. And once again he talks about players such as Goodwin and Ulis as part of our youth movement through draft picks? We didn't tank for second round picks or even for the number 4 pick. It's just nonsense to paint it as 3 separate rebuilds under McD.

Due to financial pressures, we initially tried to rebuild without actually tanking. When that fell apart and the news started leaking out about the huge TV contract (relieving the financial pressures), Sarver finally agreed to a full rebuild using a similar approach as Hinkie. The biggest mistake we've made since then (other than our horrible 2016 draft decisions) is in acting like the rebuild was complete after we selected Ayton and then announcing that we were abandoning our timeline. You follow Hinkie down this road until you get a Lebron or two, not when you get a bunch of 4's and 5's.

In truth, we don't have the patience for this kind of rebuild, few franchises do. So we shouldn't have gone down this road in the first place. But abandoning it now is an even worse decision than starting it in the first place IMO. And when we draft Zion or Morant or whoever at the end of this season, I imagine King will be calling it our 4th rebuild in 4 or 5 years.

Dave King is far from an idiot. He is someone that leans maybe a little too much on the optimistic side of the spectrum, but he typically comes across as pretty well grounded and logical.

 

[BC867]

Yeah, everybody expecting an “average” point guard to solve all our problems is living in a dream world.

Time to develop our young players is the main thing needed.

Then let's not say "average" Point Guard.

Let's say a mid-career Point Guard with NBA starter experience to make the rest of the team better and return DBook to the position at which he can excel -- Shooting Guard.

As others have pointed out, it is no different than a football team without an experienced quarterback. Both positions affect the rest of the team more than any other.

That Point Guard is out there. It is up to Jones to be astute and ready when one is available. The sooner the better.

 

[Mainstreet]

With the new lottery system your ability to rebuild is heavily dependent on luck.

I think it will succeed in stopping intentional tanking.

But it may backfire making bad teams bad for a really long time.

Personally I'm keeping my eye on the Nets as showing a new way forward. They are playing way beyond my expectations without much help from draft picks. The question is can they keep improving.

 

[BC867]

I don't know what the Suns are doing for scouting, no one here does. Maybe they're going to use a scouting service, maybe they have some scouts in mind already, maybe they are promoting from within, maybe they could care less and will be trading the picks regardless? We just don't know. But I don't know what to say about the 4 bad years because I can't figure out why anyone expected anything different once we decided to bottom out for draft position.

You can't control how the lottery goes and you have no control over the quality of the draft class. The Hinkie plan was based on losing and losing and losing until you get the superstar(s) you're in search of. Had Embiid's injuries derailed him and had Hinkie been allowed to continue and had the NBA not changed the lottery rules, I'm quite confident Philly would be in a dogfight with us for Zion this season. IOW, it was never a 1 year or 2 year or even a 5 year plan, it's tank until you get what you need to compete at the highest level. If we weren't prepared to do that we should have never tanked.

Do you think that perhaps, considering Sarver's low basketball IQ and his insistence on making player personnel decisions, he is taking the easy way out now? Such as ... since we are overloaded with young players, who needs scouts? Not looking beyond the end of his nose.

While I am a proponent of obtaining or signing an experienced Point Guard rather than a rookie PG, you don't sh*tcan your scouting department. The overall goal should still be a balanced roster at the other positions. Time will tell what Sarver's hit-or-miss philosophy is this time.

Without getting too political, isn't Sarver's performance of constantly hiring and firing, and considering himself to be an expert in all aspects, isn't he doing exactly what Trump is doing?

No GM. No scouting department. IMPEACH SARVER! Yeah, that's the ticket.

 

[hcsilla]

Personally I'm keeping my eye on the Nets as showing a new way forward. They are playing way beyond my expectations without much help from draft picks. The question is can they keep improving.

Except Jarrett Allen and maybe Dinwiddie I don't really see the potential in Nets' current roster but they will have a ton of cap space this summer.

They did a remarkable job to turn-around the franchise after the disaster that Billy King left behind him and Kenny Atkinson's work is especially impressive.

 

[Mainstreet]

Then let's not say "average" Point Guard.

Let's say a mid-career Point Guard with NBA starter experience to make the rest of the team better and return DBook to the position at which he can excel -- Shooting Guard.

As others have pointed out, it is no different than a football team without an experienced quarterback. Both positions affect the rest of the team more than any other.

That Point Guard is out there. It is up to Jones to be astute and ready when one is available. The sooner the better.

The best opportunity to acquire a point guard is between now and the trade deadline and this summer. I think the Suns are biding their time to keep from overpaying.

 

[taz02]

They didn’t have any. Once they got them those star players started leading to wins. I believe in book long term, but he doesn’t seem to be leading to more wins.

That makes the situation between the 76ers and the suns a bit different. If we didn't have our star players, Booker and Ayton in place, then patience would make more sense.

I guess none of us really knows what the the plan is or needs to be to fix this mess.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Hate or not (I actually don't, moreover I do think it uses unquestionable logic), I'm eager to hear any other healthy alternative to rebuild.

I think, at the time we started this, the Hinkie plan made a lot of sense if your primary goal was to compete for a championship at some point. I don't think you can do that without multiple stars, at least one of which needs to be in the conversation for best player in the game. And in today's NBA, with the way the cap and the rules have changed, getting a superstar through the draft is just about the only way to become a championship contender for most franchises.

But I love watching the Suns play. I look forward to each game and playing well in each of those games means a lot to me. The losses that go with the Hinkie plan are very difficult to deal with. Winning a championship would be great but it really wouldn't mean as much to me as playing well throughout the season. Don't get me wrong, I very much want a championship but I want to enjoy those 82 games even more.

Once we decided to be bad, I wanted to see us do it the right way (IOW, the Hinkie way) so I jumped on the tanking bandwagon fairly early. And once the 76ers openly tanked as they did without interference or consequences from the league, it became almost a necessity because it was the only way to keep up with the other rebuilding teams. But I believe the NBA is better off without tanking and I know I'd be better off if the Suns had found another way to rebuild.

 

[BC867]

They didn’t have any. Once they got them those star players started leading to wins. I believe in book long term, but he doesn’t seem to be leading to more wins.

If he weren't carrying the weight of the team on his shoulders by being worn thin physically and emotionally by not being fed by a Point Guard, he would be leading to more wins. And, more importantly, solid growth for the future. Devin Booker is a great scorer and young team leader. But he is not The Man of Steel.

He is not a Point Guard. He is not a good defender. It is up to management to recognize the positives he brings to the table (and the same thing with Ayton) and build a balanced team around them. I don't blame either the young almost-superstar Shooting Guard (who did not plan on missing the All Star roster this season) or the rookie Center for what is going on.

Basketball certainly is not like bowling, where a team's individual scores are added together. It is a team sport every moment on the court on offense and defense. The Suns chemistry absolutely sucks. And that is not on the players. Especially our young players.

 

[Raindog]

The Suns "plan" still is what it has always apparently been under Sarver, which is as follows:

Phase One - Get Underpants
Phase Two - ???
Phase Three - Profits

 

[AzStevenCal]

With the new lottery system your ability to rebuild is heavily dependent on luck.

I think it will succeed in stopping intentional tanking.

But it may backfire making bad teams bad for a really long time.

Yeah, I think it will stop the season long tanking like Philly and several other of us have done but the late season tanking will continue (and it should).

 

[Mainstreet]

Except Jarrett Allen and maybe Dinwiddie I don't really see the potential in Nets' current roster but they will have a ton of cap space this summer.

They did a remarkable job to turn-around the franchise after the disaster that Billy King left behind him and Kenny Atkinson's work is especially impressive.

I would include D'Angelo Russell in there and I liked Caris LeVert before he got injured.

I'm not saying saying they are going to be the next big thing but it shows a team can build without a lot of top draft picks.