What present Suns player has the highest upside?

[Errntknght]

When have you EVER seen good defense in summer league? That's not what the league is. Like it or hate it, it's about auditioning for the NBA for 85% of the participants. And it's sloppy and inefficient basketball, impossible to play even decent defense.

It looked to me like Archie was auditioning for a seat on the bench. One reason I was so disappointed with his D, is that he can defend quite well when he focuses on it. What better place to play good defense than one where you'll definitely stand out from the crowd if you do it.

 

[Phrazbit]

When have you EVER seen good defense in summer league? That's not what the league is. Like it or hate it, it's about auditioning for the NBA for 85% of the participants. And it's sloppy and inefficient basketball, impossible to play even decent defense.

Agreed. My thoughts on all these guys is based on what I've seen of them in actual basketball games, not the worthless trash heap that is the Summer League.

IMO virtually nothing can be gleaned from those exhibitions.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Suns system? What system? It's not like they have a championship machine in place. When you have a player with the offensive skills that TJ has, you make the system fit him.

Horny is not McD. He is flexible enough to do this.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Suns system? What system? It's not like they have a championship machine in place. When you have a player with the offensive skills that TJ has, you make the system fit him.

seriously... you make a system fit a guy... who's never done anything in the league and his style of play is a throwback that's not really in line with today's NBA? You guys talk about TJ's "offensive skills" like he's Kobe Bryant or Shaq. Even if he's a Ceballos (which is what his game looks like) you make a system to fit that guy in.

I really hope TJ is as good as you guys think he's going to be, but the hyperbole about his offensive game is off the charts for someone who wasn't drafted high and has barely seen any game action in the league.

 

[Mainstreet]

Warren reminds me of Ceballos to some degree in regards he knows how to score around the basket in a variety of ways. However, Ceballos was quicker. He could put the ball in the basket faster than most players I recall. Cedric was a good rebounder in college. He relied on his quickness for rebounding and scoring around the basket which helped carry over to the NBA. As Warren uses more guile than quickness (contrasted to Ceballos) to score this should help him in the long run to expand his game if he adds a 3 point shot.

If Warren is like Ceballos, he will fit into most any system because he will score a lot of garbage baskets. He will not need a system to be built around him to be effective.

 

[Phrazbit]

Warren reminds me of Ceballos to some degree in regards he knows how to score around the basket in a variety of ways. However, Ceballos was quicker. He could put the ball in the basket faster than most players I recall. Cedric was a good rebounder in college. He relied on his quickness for rebounding and scoring around the basket which helped carry over to the NBA. As Warren uses more guile than quickness (contrasted to Ceballos) to score this should help him in the long run to expand his game if he adds a 3 point shot.

If Warren is like Ceballos, he will fit into most any system because he will score a lot of garbage baskets. He will not need a system to be built around him to be effective.

That is more my line of thinking. Warren seems like the garbage gobbler type. A guy who scores without set plays. One of those guys who doesn't blow you away and dominate but at the end of the night you at the box score and they've put in 18 points but you can't really remember any of them.

 

[Chaz]

If Warren is like Ceballos, he will fit into most any system because he will score a lot of garbage baskets. He will not need a system to be built around him to be effective.

I agree, he doesn't need a system to score points. He is just a natural scorer. For now I see him as consistent points off the bench. Which they have needed since Kieff moved to the starting lineup and Thomas was traded.
Until he shows more improvement on defense I don't see him as a starting sf.

 

[JCSunsfan]

seriously... you make a system fit a guy... who's never done anything in the league and his style of play is a throwback that's not really in line with today's NBA? You guys talk about TJ's "offensive skills" like he's Kobe Bryant or Shaq. Even if he's a Ceballos (which is what his game looks like) you make a system to fit that guy in.

I really hope TJ is as good as you guys think he's going to be, but the hyperbole about his offensive game is off the charts for someone who wasn't drafted high and has barely seen any game action in the league.

You make your system fit the players you have. Its really pretty foolish to stick to a system that doesn't fit your talent. Also, the Suns really don't have a discernable system at this point. With Goran, it was a one man fast break system, but with Eric, well, he does not run nearly as much.

 

[Errntknght]

You make your system fit the players you have. Its really pretty foolish to stick to a system that doesn't fit your talent. Also, the Suns really don't have a discernable system at this point. With Goran, it was a one man fast break system, but with Eric, well, he does not run nearly as much.

In practice coaches (and their GMs) try to get players that fit their system. If they had to acquire players more or less at random then they'd have to fit a system around them but they have lots of choices. But even Phil Jackson has to adjust his system to some extent - in Chicago he had a sequence of centers that didn't score much and usually on face up shots while in LA he had Shaq playing low post with a back to the basket game. I recall him saying many years later that was the easiest adjustment he ever made. (I thought it would have interesting to see what Phil would have done with a healthy Steve Nash - that would have been a major clash with the triangle offense, but they'd have probably made it work somehow.)

The Suns have system, the broad parameters of which are: high tempo, 2 PGs to facilitate the fastbreak (though they obviously settle for combo guards), quick plays like the pick and roll/pop to get into the offense before the defense is set. That much they've said publicly and they've both said recently that is still their plan. They haven't been as direct about saying they want PGs that are good at dribble penetration but that's pretty clear. One of them said this summer that they wanted to improve their 3pt shooting to keep the middle of the floor more open for the guards to drive.

Phrazbit said recently that he took the drafting of Booker to mean they were not totally committed to this plan - he being a prototypical shooting guard. That thought passed through my mind when they drafted him but after seeing how poised he was on the floor it occurred to me that they might see him as a good candidate for a combo guard - they have encouraged Archie in that direction and he's a less likely candidate than Booker.

Chaplin averred that TJ would fit in any system - I'd go along with that if the system included a Nash-like PG. Nash would see when and where TJ was maneuvering to come open and have the ball there in a timely fashion. He'd be a scoring machine.

 

[Sunburn]

Chaplin averred that TJ would fit in any system - I'd go along with that if the system included a Nash-like PG. Nash would see when and where TJ was maneuvering to come open and have the ball there in a timely fashion. He'd be a scoring machine.

You should go along with it regardless. He'd fit in any system because he doesn't need plays run for him to be offensively effective. Indeed, he would excel with a Nash-like pg, but everyone excels with a Nash-like pg. Playing for Phoenix was great for career highs during the Nash era.

 

[Chaplin]

Interesting thing here is in all these posts, I keep equating TJ with Shawn Marion. If TJ improves his rebounding, we pretty much have the "next" Marion.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Interesting thing here is in all these posts, I keep equating TJ with Shawn Marion. If TJ improves his rebounding, we pretty much have the "next" Marion.

Its fun trying to equate one player with another. TJ is not the athlete that Marion was, and he will never be the rebounder Shawn was. But TJ's body control and smarts in the mid-range are much greater. I do like that he is talking about defense alot. That seems to be a common theme with the younger players on this team. Marion was a stellar defender. TJ is average at this point. I do think that TJ has the potential to be a go to scorer at the end of games though, Marion was never that.

As I think of Suns players like that, the only player I can think of is Tom Chambers. Tom was bigger, but he seemed to have the same strengths as weaknesses as TJ.

 

[Errntknght]

You should go along with it regardless. He'd fit in any system because he doesn't need plays run for him to be offensively effective. Indeed, he would excel with a Nash-like pg, but everyone excels with a Nash-like pg. Playing for Phoenix was great for career highs during the Nash era.

If he fits in any system then he automatically must fit with our system - but he didn't appear to last year. For example his scoring rate was 14.3/36min and league average for all players is 14.9/36min. This is a guy who relies on his scoring to get on the floor.

Hornacek says we are going to run the same system this year and we're adding 3 pt shooting to make it work better - I don't see how that caters more to TJ's game than last year - less well if anything. Thats not say Jeff couldn't make some adjustments to better accomodate TJ but that seems unlikely. I think it could pay off to do so but Jeff has not done anything along that line before.

 

[JCSunsfan]

If he fits in any system then he automatically must fit with our system - but he didn't appear to last year. For example his scoring rate was 14.3/36min and league average for all players is 14.9/36min. This is a guy who relies on his scoring to get on the floor.

Hornacek says we are going to run the same system this year and we're adding 3 pt shooting to make it work better - I don't see how that caters more to TJ's game than last year - less well if anything. Thats not say Jeff couldn't make some adjustments to better accomodate TJ but that seems unlikely. I think it could pay off to do so but Jeff has not done anything along that line before.

Add three point shooting at the 2 and the 4, then the driving lanes open for Bledsoe and the midrange game opens for TJ.

What was clear last year was that Goran seemed to be lost unless the ball was in his hands. He typically camped out at the corner and watched Bled. If the ball went to Markieff, then everyone stood around and watched while he made a 1-1 move and shot a contested two (which he made with remarkable regularity).

The running games was not nearly as effective as before except when Goran got the ball. Bledsoe does not run the fast break instinctively. He tends to walk the ball up and runs only off long rebounds and steals.

It will be interesting to see how this team is improved this year. I think with the addition of Chandler, that the defense will be alot better. YOu not only have a huge rim protector and rebounder on the floor at all times. Chandler quarterbacks the D calling out defensive assignments. This team has never had a defensive leader like that.

The key to the offensive will be Knight. If he is willing to be more creative than Dragic was without the ball, the whole thing will run smoother. To a lesser extent, the stretch 4's (Leuer and Tele) will open the middle some. If Kieff doesn't work hard, I could see one of these guys taking the starting job from him--not because they are better players, but because they fit better.

The ability of both Weems and Booker to come off the bench and shoot will also open up the offense for Bledsoe (or Knight) as well.

Its not guaranteed to work, but the pieces are there. Horny has to put together the system and get guys to buy in to their roles.

As an aside, it might be that the easiest starter to replace right now might be Kieff. While he is a good player, he is not a good fit. There are basketball reasons to trade him as well as off court reasons. But they must get a good player in return.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Anyone know who led the league in offensive rating last year? Number of points produced per 100 possessions.

 

[Errntknght]

Anyone know who led the league in offensive rating last year? Number of points produced per 100 possessions.

Do you have a certain formula for possessions you're interested in? For example you may want to only consider possessions when the player was on the floor instead of all the teams possessions - that would require the tracking data. Or you could approximate it by calculating total team possessions and then using (players minutes / team minutes) to get an estimate of the number of possessions the guy was on the floor.

Once I found some player ratings by point per play - they were given for plays in a number of categories but I'm not sure they gave a sum total of points per play for all plays - it makes sense they would but I don't remember. That would be a better efficiency rating than points per possession, I would think. It was somewhere in the tracking data but I just made a quick tour and didn't rediscover it.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Do you have a certain formula for possessions you're interested in? For example you may want to only consider possessions when the player was on the floor instead of all the teams possessions - that would require the tracking data. Or you could approximate it by calculating total team possessions and then using (players minutes / team minutes) to get an estimate of the number of possessions the guy was on the floor.

Once I found some player ratings by point per play - they were given for plays in a number of categories but I'm not sure they gave a sum total of points per play for all plays - it makes sense they would but I don't remember. That would be a better efficiency rating than points per possession, I would think. It was somewhere in the tracking data but I just made a quick tour and didn't rediscover it.

I had this in mind.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/off_rtg_season.html

 

[Errntknght]

okay, you were guessing at points per possession but if Tyson Chandler is at the top it can't be anything resembling that. No doubt it uses points, offensive rebounds, assists, -TO's, and -missed shots and probably per 48 minutes or something along that line. I calculate a similar offensive efficiency but I put the positive things in the numerator and the negative things in the denominator - assists to TOs is calculated that way. The nice thing is no time enters into so its doesn't need to be pace corrected - and it works for a team just like it does for an individual.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Interesting thing here is in all these posts, I keep equating TJ with Shawn Marion. If TJ improves his rebounding, we pretty much have the "next" Marion.

Seriously? For his career, Marion averaged almost 35 mins per game, 15 puts per game and almost 9 boards, while shooting 33% from behind the arc.
At this point, I just don't see TJ coming close to anything that would resemble those numbers...

 

[Chaplin]

Seriously? For his career, Marion averaged almost 35 mins per game, 15 puts per game and almost 9 boards, while shooting 33% from behind the arc.
At this point, I just don't see TJ coming close to anything that would resemble those numbers...

Which point would that be? Heading into his 2nd season? I'm not sure you understood my point about improvement.

 

[Mainstreet]

I can understand wanting to compare Warren to Marion but Marion was off the charts athletically. He was the human pogo stick. If Warren wants to achieve stats like Marion, he will have to find another way to do it.

 

[Chaplin]

Forget I said anything. The talk about not having to run plays for him led to my comparison, but not once did I make a one-to-one similarity.

 

[leclerc]

I'd like to change my vote from Booker to Knight with Big A as a close second. Knight is the only one close to being an All-Star (age 23?) and I'm not convinced Booker (or anyone else on the team except maybe Alex) will ever be an All-Star.

 

[BC867]

I'd like to change my vote from Booker to Knight with Big A as a close second. Knight is the only one close to being an All-Star (age 23?) and I'm not convinced Booker (or anyone else on the team except maybe Alex) will ever be an All-Star.

Welcome to the club. Now there are 3 of us out of 44 who have voted for Knight. I am shocked at that low number.

Of course, Knight would have to clearly be our Point Guard for that to happen and that is up to the coaching staff to realize who is best at each position.

I do disagree, though, about Len. If his health takes a turn for the good and he can stay out of foul trouble, I have come to believe that his ceiling is as a role playing Center on a good team. And he is nowhere near that yet. He has a lot to learn and experience.

 

[95pro]

To me...upside means which player will make the most gains in their basketball skill sets.

Knight and Bled are almost to their ceiling which is why I didn't vote for either.