What present Suns player has the highest upside?

[Chaz]

Ironically Archie would be deadly with a midrange game like TJ already has.


TJ is a flat out scorer. He isn't a creator, he is a slasher and finisher. As others have mentioned it is the other aspects of his game (defense/rebounding) that are question marks. He reminds me of Ceballos, one of my all time favorite Suns, in that he is unconventional but effective at putting the ball in the basket.

 

[Errntknght]

I should point out that in his limited minutes, in his first year, TJ was not a poor rebounder for a SF, according to his stats - 5.0 per 36. Maybe it was fluke being based on only 600 minutes of PT, but if its an accurate measure then its not a problem. The average for all SFs is 5.3/36. Other SFs with comparable numbers are: Caron Butler, Danny Granger, Jeff Green, Matt Barnes, Gordon Hayward, Corey Brewer, Chandler Parsons. Heck, Lebron James only gathered 6.1/36. We're used to seeing PJ Tucker and Shawn Marion before that, who are/were outstanding rebounders for SFs.

Another way to view it is that Markeiff is 1.6reb/36 below average for PFs and TJ is .3reb/36 below average for SFs.

 

[Phrazbit]

I should point out that in his limited minutes, in his first year, TJ was not a poor rebounder for a SF, according to his stats - 5.0 per 36. Maybe it was fluke being based on only 600 minutes of PT, but if its an accurate measure then its not a problem. The average for all SFs is 5.3/36. Other SFs with comparable numbers are: Caron Butler, Danny Granger, Jeff Green, Matt Barnes, Gordon Hayward, Corey Brewer, Chandler Parsons. Heck, Lebron James only gathered 6.1/36. We're used to seeing PJ Tucker and Shawn Marion before that, who are/were outstanding rebounders for SFs.

Another way to view it is that Markeiff is 1.6reb/36 below average for PFs and TJ is .3reb/36 below average for SFs.

That actually does make me feel somewhat better about him.

 

[Phrazbit]

I think Archie is incredibly gifted - physically. But unless he develops a legit outside game/threat, his production will be limited...
Yes, that sounds familiar doesn't it...

IMO Archie has a lot farther to go and I think its MUCH more likely that Warren's shooting ability gets extended deeper than that Archie will develop a deep shooting touch when he hasn't shown it from any range.

Archie and Warren, beyond just their physical traits and positioning, are very different. What gives me hope for Warren is that he seems to have a strong understanding of positioning, angles, movement without the ball. He seems to have really good instincts and a high bball IQ.

What I think is going to hold Archie back is his ability to learn. Calipari found him to be uncoachable; so far here he made very little development as a player in two years.

 

[82CardsGrad]

IMO Archie has a lot farther to go and I think its MUCH more likely that Warren's shooting ability gets extended deeper than that Archie will develop a deep shooting touch when he hasn't shown it from any range.

Archie and Warren, beyond just their physical traits and positioning, are very different. What gives me hope for Warren is that he seems to have a strong understanding of positioning, angles, movement without the ball. He seems to have really good instincts and a high bball IQ.

What I think is going to hold Archie back is his ability to learn. Calipari found him to be uncoachable; so far here he made very little development as a player in two years.

Just curious... what do you see as TJ's max upside? How many minutes per game? How many points per game? Rebounds per game? What other player(s) do you see as a comp for TJ?

 

[SirStefan32]

Just curious... what do you see as TJ's max upside? How many minutes per game? How many points per game? Rebounds per game? What other player(s) do you see as a comp for TJ?

I know question wasn't directed at me, but I would say he gets as many minutes as he earns. I'd start him off with 10 minutes and then increase that if he plays well. I'd be thrilled to have him play 15-20 minutes per game and get 6-8 points in his second season. I would not be surprised if he averages double digits though. He can score and he can get open. If the two half-PGs find him half the time he's wide open, he'll average double digits.

 

[Mainstreet]

For anyone who wants to read it, there is an article at RealGM dated 7-28-15 by Jonathan Tjarks.


http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/238890/Finding-Minutes-For-The-Unorthodox-Game-Of-TJ-Warren

 

[Errntknght]

Phrazebit, "What I think is going to hold Archie back is his ability to learn. Calipari found him to be uncoacheble; so far here he made very little development as a player in two years."

In fact he did improve his three point shooting from year 1 to year 2 - he doubled his success rate from .139 to .293. Its still not in the right ballpark but if can just increase it 33% this year, he'll be okay in that regard.

I think you're basically right but its also true that almost anyone can be taught if the right approach for them is used. Presumably, Archie has been taught the same way the other players have been and it may be that he requires more intensive coaching than they do. Of course that may not work either, but it's certainly worth a try.

There are people you can pay to help players with their shot mechanics, people who specialize in that and have a history of success. I can't look at his shot and even say that its wrong is some way - it looks pretty good to me, to tell the truth. But there might be a half dozen minor mistakes and his shot won't improve until all of them are corrected. He could, for example, work on them one a time and reject them all since little happened. I would guess that such shooting coaches are used to working with players who don't learn quickly with normal coaching.

Hornacek is no slouch as a shooting coach according a number of players, which means that he may not be the best person to decide that another approach could work better for Archie.

IMO, Jeff missed a great opportunity with Archie last year by not keeping him the whole season with the Bakersfield Jam. With goals regarding turn overs, assists and mid-range shots. If it meant assigning an assistant to work with him there, that would not be an inordinate expense. The main thing, though, was for Archie to get invested in helping the team win - why bother to make a good pass if all that matters is your own scoring. He's probably learned over the years that the best way to help his team win is to score as much as possible but he's at level now where that is rarely true for the best scorers in the world.

 

[Errntknght]

For anyone who whats to read it, there is an article at RealGM dated 7-28-15 by Jonathan Tjarks.

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/238890/Finding-Minutes-For-The-Unorthodox-Game-Of-TJ-Warren

Indeed, a good article. I do think he erred in one regard - while the Suns 3 pt shooting was subpar last year I think every effort will be made to fix that. And it will hurt TJ's playing time. If Booker or Weems or even Goodwin can hit them around 40% or better they will play the wing slots ahead of him. On the other hand if Leuer and/or Teletovic are keeping the floor spread, PJ and Weems will probably be on the floor for defense and rebounding. To top it all off we don't have a PG who will be looking for him - the article did make note of this, so he's aware of this problem.

 

[SirStefan32]

Indeed, a good article. I do think he erred in one regard - while the Suns 3 pt shooting was subpar last year I think every effort will be made to fix that. And it will hurt TJ's playing time. If Booker or Weems or even Goodwin can hit them around 40% or better they will play the wing slots ahead of him. On the other hand if Leuer and/or Teletovic are keeping the floor spread, PJ and Weems will probably be on the floor for defense and rebounding. To top it all off we don't have a PG who will be looking for him - the article did make note of this, so he's aware of this problem.

Wouldn't Weems be the Bledsoe and Knight backup primarily? I would think he plays the Green's role, while TJ steps in for Marcus Morris. Of course, with Chandler and Len taking care of the middle, not sure how you play Teletovic and Leuer significant minutes.

 

[Phrazbit]

Just curious... what do you see as TJ's max upside? How many minutes per game? How many points per game? Rebounds per game? What other player(s) do you see as a comp for TJ?

I think trying to pinpoint exact numbers is fruitless but as play style comparison I think his absolute MAX would be something like a poor man's Carmelo or Paul Pierce, or a less athletic Ceballos. That interior ability is real, and I don't see what he can't add range too it. Tons of guys do and he has already displayed a soft touch and high IQ.

But those comparisons are tough, its hard to think of a contemporary player because not many wing guys have that kind of interior scoring ability.

I think there are decent odds that he becomes a solid starter at SF, a guy who can score between 14-18 a night depending on the system he is in and do it with solid efficiency.

I don't think its all that outlandish given the hyperbole fans frequently attach to young players.

Just FYI, he didn't get my vote as our highest potential guy. I don't think the player I just described is as good as Bledsoe is right now.

 

[Mainstreet]

Indeed, a good article. I do think he erred in one regard - while the Suns 3 pt shooting was subpar last year I think every effort will be made to fix that. And it will hurt TJ's playing time. If Booker or Weems or even Goodwin can hit them around 40% or better they will play the wing slots ahead of him. On the other hand if Leuer and/or Teletovic are keeping the floor spread, PJ and Weems will probably be on the floor for defense and rebounding. To top it all off we don't have a PG who will be looking for him - the article did make note of this, so he's aware of this problem.

I think these two quotes were the most interesting.

The question is how his game will translate to the NBA since almost no one plays like he does anymore. The only guy in recent years whom I’d compare him too is Antawn Jamison. After spending a lottery pick on him, the Suns need to find out what they have in Warren, which was one of the reasons for the salary dump that saw them send Marcus Morris and Reggie Bullock to the Detroit Pistons for a future second-round pick. Just as important as clearing salary cap space for LaMarcus Aldridge was clearing playing time for Warren at SF and PF.

It’s unclear exactly how the fit will work itself out. Since he’s not a great three-point shooter, he would probably be best as a small-ball PF in a spread floor. A line-up with Markieff Morris at the 5 and Warren at the 4 would make a lot of sense but the Suns have invested too much in Tyson Chandler and Alex Len at C to go small too often. Phoenix doesn’t have a ton of three-point shooting on the perimeter either so Warren won’t have that much space to operate in. The good news is that he’s a guy who can sliver through cracks and find his way to the rim.

Clearly the writer sees Warren getting time at the PF position in a small ball lineup. I'm just not seeing Warren as a PF. The Suns have PFs that can spread the court in Markieff, Mirza and Leuer who should be able to go small without a center. I see Warren more as a SF if he is going to get minutes. Also I do not see why Warren cannot develop a three point shot.

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/238890/Finding-Minutes-For-The-Unorthodox-Game-Of-TJ-Warren

 

[Errntknght]

Wouldn't Weems be the Bledsoe and Knight backup primarily? I would think he plays the Green's role, while TJ steps in for Marcus Morris. Of course, with Chandler and Len taking care of the middle, not sure how you play Teletovic and Leuer significant minutes.

My thinking is that Weems will start out the season as the first SG off the bench, so yes, the backup for Bledsoe and Knight. But if, say, Booker shoots near 40% from 3, Weems might get pushed up to SF a fair amount - especially if he's a decent 3 pt shot from the corner. In small ball I'd say he's a likely candidate for SF. You say TJ steps into Marcus' role but Marcus' role was to spread the floor from the arc as much as anything, or you could say to keep his brother from drifting out there too much.

The way Teletovic or Leuer get significant minutes is backing up Markeiff and taking some of his minutes. I think its unlikely they both get significant minutes. If Teletovic is on target from 3, I would not be surprised to see him get some minutes at SF.

It looks like to me, that one of our aims this year was to ramp up the use of 3 point shots and to raise our percentage. 1) Knight is our best returning shooter from 3 at .389 last year and McD took no chances on letting get away. 2) drafted the best shooter in the draft 3 & 4) signed two PFs that have shot the 3 near 40% in a recent year. Weems may be a fifth prong but I have no recent stats on him. In his 2nd year in the league (2009-10) he shot .133 on 3's, 3rd year(2010-11) .289 so he could be pretty good at it now.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I know question wasn't directed at me, but I would say he gets as many minutes as he earns. I'd start him off with 10 minutes and then increase that if he plays well. I'd be thrilled to have him play 15-20 minutes per game and get 6-8 points in his second season. I would not be surprised if he averages double digits though. He can score and he can get open. If the two half-PGs find him half the time he's wide open, he'll average double digits.

Of course his mins will be determined by his play. But that's why I asked the question to you guys who are clearly much higher on him than I am.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I think trying to pinpoint exact numbers is fruitless but as play style comparison I think his absolute MAX would be something like a poor man's Carmelo or Paul Pierce, or a less athletic Ceballos. That interior ability is real, and I don't see what he can't add range too it. Tons of guys do and he has already displayed a soft touch and high IQ.

But those comparisons are tough, its hard to think of a contemporary player because not many wing guys have that kind of interior scoring ability.

I think there are decent odds that he becomes a solid starter at SF, a guy who can score between 14-18 a night depending on the system he is in and do it with solid efficiency.

I don't think its all that outlandish given the hyperbole fans frequently attach to young players.

Just FYI, he didn't get my vote as our highest potential guy. I don't think the player I just described is as good as Bledsoe is right now.

I believe the odds are greater that he fails to develop a legit outside game (outside the paint). And at 6'8" and a very slim 215, he will not be able to be a consistent contributor playing more than 15 mins a game.
I think the odds are greater that he never reaches double-digit PPG. And I definitely don't ever see him approaching the shooting levels of guys like Carmelo or Pierce.
Again, I really hope I'm wrong...

 

[Phrazbit]

I believe the odds are greater that he fails to develop a legit outside game (outside the paint). And at 6'8" and a very slim 215, he will not be able to be a consistent contributor playing more than 15 mins a game.
I think the odds are greater that he never reaches double-digit PPG. And I definitely don't ever see him approaching the shooting levels of guys like Carmelo or Pierce.
Again, I really hope I'm wrong...

I think people get waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too hung up on measurements. I don't care if a guy weighs 90 pounds, so long as they can contribute. There are plenty of guys as skinny as him all over the league anyway. And he scores on the inside without banging anyway, the guy has an amazing floater.

And I said a poor man's Carmelo or Pierce. I don't see him dropping 25+ a game either. I was more referring to the play-style, the ability to score from angles a lot of guys can't, which he already showed last year.

I think his skill set is being under valued. If a guy like with the proverbial sex appeal of Archie was converting like Warren around the hoop then people would be losing their minds about his potential. There is REAL value to having a guy who can convert at a near 70% rate on the interior, regardless of position. I don't know if he will ever become a long term starter, but Warren will likely have a long career even if he only improves marginally.

Archie on the other hand... right now I'd say we'd be lucky if he became the next Iman Shumpert.

 

[JCSunsfan]

My thinking is that Weems will start out the season as the first SG off the bench, so yes, the backup for Bledsoe and Knight. But if, say, Booker shoots near 40% from 3, Weems might get pushed up to SF a fair amount - especially if he's a decent 3 pt shot from the corner. In small ball I'd say he's a likely candidate for SF. You say TJ steps into Marcus' role but Marcus' role was to spread the floor from the arc as much as anything, or you could say to keep his brother from drifting out there too much.

The way Teletovic or Leuer get significant minutes is backing up Markeiff and taking some of his minutes. I think its unlikely they both get significant minutes. If Teletovic is on target from 3, I would not be surprised to see him get some minutes at SF.

It looks like to me, that one of our aims this year was to ramp up the use of 3 point shots and to raise our percentage. 1) Knight is our best returning shooter from 3 at .389 last year and McD took no chances on letting get away. 2) drafted the best shooter in the draft 3 & 4) signed two PFs that have shot the 3 near 40% in a recent year. Weems may be a fifth prong but I have no recent stats on him. In his 2nd year in the league (2009-10) he shot .133 on 3's, 3rd year(2010-11) .289 so he could be pretty good at it now.

Weems shot 37% from the three over 4 years in the Euro leagues. He improved his shot significantly.

 

[Errntknght]

Heck, if Archie had a decent pullup jumper from 10-12 feet and used it at the right times, he'd be much improved. He'd probably get into the rotation.

I think both he and TJ will make it to the level of rotation player, with TJ a near certainty, but not likely with the Suns. TJ is just not a good fit with Jeff's offense and Archie is a slow learner, as you said - he may have to bounce around awhile before he finally gets it.

 

[82CardsGrad]

I think people get waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too hung up on measurements. I don't care if a guy weighs 90 pounds, so long as they can contribute. There are plenty of guys as skinny as him all over the league anyway. And he scores on the inside without banging anyway, the guy has an amazing floater.

And I said a poor man's Carmelo or Pierce. I don't see him dropping 25+ a game either. I was more referring to the play-style, the ability to score from angles a lot of guys can't, which he already showed last year.

I think his skill set is being under valued. If a guy like with the proverbial sex appeal of Archie was converting like Warren around the hoop then people would be losing their minds about his potential. There is REAL value to having a guy who can convert at a near 70% rate on the interior, regardless of position. I don't know if he will ever become a long term starter, but Warren will likely have a long career even if he only improves marginally.

Archie on the other hand... right now I'd say we'd be lucky if he became the next Iman Shumpert.

I think for a guy who prefers to stay inside and who might be limited to operating within the paint, TJ's size is an issue. Unless you are totally ok with TJ forever going 15 MPG, with 6-7 PPG, I would say that he could end up being characterized as a disappointing lottery pick...

 

[Mainstreet]

I think Archie showed flashes of a mid-range and a 3 point shot in summer league. At least he seemed improved in this area. However, a problem Archie has, he must balance when he goes to the basket as the next step. One thing Archie could learn from Warren is that floater. I don't understand why Warren cannot expand his shooting to outside the paint. Really, the two players have a lot in common, adding a 3 point shot to keep defenses honest.

I think both Warren and Goodwin will have solid NBA careers once they find their niche but it may not be with the Suns. The main hurdle for both players is getting minutes to improve their game.

 

[Phrazbit]

I think for a guy who prefers to stay inside and who might be limited to operating within the paint, TJ's size is an issue. Unless you are totally ok with TJ forever going 15 MPG, with 6-7 PPG, I would say that he could end up being characterized as a disappointing lottery pick...

He was already able to put up those stats on good shooting efficiency as a rookie on a dysfunctional team. I think your view that he will for some reason not improve at all from where he was last year is less realistic than most of the other thoughts tossed around in here.

 

[82CardsGrad]

He was already able to put up those stats on good shooting efficiency as a rookie on a dysfunctional team. I think your view that he will for some reason not improve at all from where he was last year is less realistic than most of the other thoughts tossed around in here.

Time will tell... But of course, if I'm right I can already hear the gripes about how the other players are getting him the ball, or they're getting him the ball in the wrong spots, or the Suns' system is not the proper fit for TJ...

Man I would love nothing more than to see him develop into a consistent threat outside the paint - which would only make him that much more effective in the paint/down low, where he already excels. We'll see...

 

[Joe Mama]

Time will tell... But of course, if I'm right I can already hear the gripes about how the other players are getting him the ball, or they're getting him the ball in the wrong spots, or the Suns' system is not the proper fit for TJ...

Man I would love nothing more than to see him develop into a consistent threat outside the paint - which would only make him that much more effective in the paint/down low, where he already excels. We'll see...

I'd be even more interested in seeing him become a really solid defender. I can handle him being a below average outside shooter or a below average defender but not both. Supposedly defense was the #1 thing he was focusing on in summer league and if so from what I saw he failed. He and Goodwin looked like the exact same players they were last year to me. Same goes for Alex Len except his shot looked a little better in the few attempts I saw him take.

Joe

 

[sunsfan88]

I'd be even more interested in seeing him become a really solid defender. I can handle him being a below average outside shooter or a below average defender but not both. Supposedly defense was the #1 thing he was focusing on in summer league and if so from what I saw he failed. He and Goodwin looked like the exact same players they were last year to me. Same goes for Alex Len except his shot looked a little better in the few attempts I saw him take.

Joe

Yea I said it in the summer leage thread but if you look around, there are not many starting SFs on any half decent teams who can't defend or shoot well and I expect the Suns want the lottery pick Warren to eventually work his way to starting over a guy like PJ Tucker.

Goodwin's lackluster defense during summer league was a pretty big disappointment for me as well. He gambles too much and doesn't focus himself.

Len just picked up where he left off...fouls, fouls, and some rim protection with few blocks then more fouls.

 

[Chaplin]

When have you EVER seen good defense in summer league? That's not what the league is. Like it or hate it, it's about auditioning for the NBA for 85% of the participants. And it's sloppy and inefficient basketball, impossible to play even decent defense.