Whisenhunt says Kolb vs. Skelton

[Stout]

FWIW, Kolb's accuracy is deeply overstated by his apologists. Kolb completed 57.7% of his passes in this offense last season, and 59.4% in his career. Skelton completed 54.9% of his passes with very little professional coaching ever in his career. Is the 5% completion percentage difference really worth facing 2nd and 14 every other series? Kolb completes more passes because he gets sacked more often.

There isn't a QB competition unless Kolb falls completely on his face in the preseason. Because it's preseason and there isn't really a schemed pass rush, Kolb is going to look fine. Of course, Kolb only competed 55% of his passes last preseason.

If you want to win now, then Kolb should start until he gets hurt. But is Kolb going to lead you to the playoffs? Is Kolb going to keep you competitive in the division? I know that a lot of people still think this is an open question, but I'm ready to say no.

Can Skelton do those things? I'm not ready to say yes, but I think that it actually is an open question with Skelton. Mainly this is because Skelton remains so limited that the coaching staff is more willing to do things that help the team win--like run the ball more often.

I'd rather pass 53% of the time with Skelton than pass 60% of the time with Kolb, because I think the results are going to be essentially the same. It's just a shame we have such a pig-headed offensive staff.

Thank you! Saved me the trouble, and said it better than I would have.

 

[JeffGollin]

If I had to roll dice on it - I'd bet on the competition being 100% about who can best help the team and 0% about who's contract is biggest. Every sign so far points to a management philosophy that the investment in players is a Total (Big Picture) thing where some guys are expensive mistakes and others fantastic bargains. Obviously you shoot for more bargains than screw-ups, but once you sign a guy (for better or for worse) whoever can best help you win earns the start.

Going into Camp this preseason - I believe Kolb has an edge in experience, techniques and game-savvy. But Skelton enjoys an edge in size, arm-strength and ability to improvise.

One thing that works to Skelton's favor is that, as time wears on, the experience/knowledge gap between the two should narrow; whereas the differences in physical ability will remain a Skelton advantage.

In the end, I think it will all boil down to which QB learns the nuances of the game quickest and best (& there's no absolute guarantee that either QB will get there).

 

[Duckjake]

FWIW, Kolb's accuracy is deeply overstated by his apologists. Kolb completed 57.7% of his passes in this offense last season, and 59.4% in his career. Skelton completed 54.9% of his passes with very little professional coaching ever in his career. Is the 5% completion percentage difference really worth facing 2nd and 14 every other series? Kolb completes more passes because he gets sacked more often.

Kolb was 24th in accuracy last season. Skelton was 27th. Joe Flacco was 25th and the Ravens were 12-4. That's who we have to copy. Baltimore.

Interesting side note. How many of you knew that Double Deuce was 12th in passing attempts per game last season? Was that just because the Cards were behind and throwing more? Could be but Drew Brees and Tom Brady were 2 and 3 respectively. I was surprised to see Brady averaged 38 passes a game.

 

[Duckjake]

I think that if the battle through OTAs and TC is somewhat close, the team will go with Kolb to try and get return on investment and since they have Skeleton under control for reasonable money.

But if Skeleton outplays Kolb?? I have full faith Wiz will go with JS. He has to win this year and can't afford to start Kolb just because of what they have paid him so far.

I hope they both have improved dramtically and have no horse in this race personally.

I think that's about the best assessment of the situation.

I also think Darkside has a good angle on it as well and Double Deuce may not have to outplay Kolb by much.

My thought is this: I think Whis takes the pulse of the team, who they rally around, who they respect. While also taking into account his own grade of the player. When Whisenhunt says he grades both players equally I believe that. What that means to me is how they grade in the locker-room. Who do the players respect and listen to. (Think Leinart).

I have a feeling that Whisenhunt is torn on both these guys and it's going to come down to who the players in the locker-room respond to and listen to and respect. I have a feeling it won't be Kolb.

 

[kerouac9]

People who think that Whis decides that the Best Player Plays seem to forget the counter-examples of Joey Porter's Stinking, Rotting, Re-animated Corpse and Bryan Robinson For Some Reason Still Starting, as well as Tim Hightower's Palms Oozing Butter.

Give me a break.

 

[Duckjake]

People who think that Whis decides that the Best Player Plays seem to forget the counter-examples of Joey Porter's Stinking, Rotting, Re-animated Corpse and Bryan Robinson For Some Reason Still Starting, as well as Tim Hightower's Palms Oozing Butter.

Give me a break.

Thank God he doesn't have Bernard Wilson on the roster. Hard to believe that guy played 77 games and started 59 of them over 5 years in Arizona. We used to swear he had incriminating pictures of Bill Bidwill.

Another contemporary of Bernard was Jerry Drake. He played for Arizona for 5 or 6 years! I think he made a tackle once. But I'm not sure.

Fred Wakefield 6 years. Bernard Wilson 5 years. Jerry Drake 6 years. No wonder they only sold 17,500 season tickets in 2003. There should be a statue/monument erected outside the UPS of a group of fans wearing sweat stained Cardinal shirts or jerseys of players who left 3 years before holding a beer in one hand and pulling their hair out with the other in honor of those of us who stuck by the team through those dark days.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

People who think that Whis decides that the Best Player Plays seem to forget the counter-examples of Joey Porter's Stinking, Rotting, Re-animated Corpse and Bryan Robinson For Some Reason Still Starting, as well as Tim Hightower's Palms Oozing Butter.

Give me a break.

Blame him for Hightower, if need be, as the defacto O-coordinator. But - it's the D-coordinator who decides the starting lineup on "D".

 

[Duckjake]

I have a new QB Intangible rating system. % of come from behind wins X QB rating X the number of favorable mentions in Darnell Dockett tweets. The higher # the better.

Double Deuce QIR is 68.9. Kolb's 20.275. Skelton wins.

 

[Krangodnzr]

FWIW, Kolb's accuracy is deeply overstated by his apologists. Kolb completed 57.7% of his passes in this offense last season, and 59.4% in his career. Skelton completed 54.9% of his passes with very little professional coaching ever in his career. Is the 5% completion percentage difference really worth facing 2nd and 14 every other series? Kolb completes more passes because he gets sacked more often.

Either way, he's more accurate considering all the empirical data (Eagles/Cardinals stats). Skelton is atrocious on the short to intermediate passes. He's Kent Graham bad. If Skelton can improve here, he's head and shoulders better than Kolb.

A problem with both QBs is that there are A LOT of open receivers. Last season I constantly saw Roberts, Housler/King/Heap, and Doucet open, and neither QB looked like they were capable of consistently hitting the open man.

There isn't a QB competition unless Kolb falls completely on his face in the preseason. Because it's preseason and there isn't really a schemed pass rush, Kolb is going to look fine. Of course, Kolb only competed 55% of his passes last preseason.

You give Skelton the benefit of the doubt on lack of practice time, but you won't do the same for Kolb? At least Skelton had been in the program for over a year and had access to the playbook. He also got more reps in the shortened offseason program than Kolb. According to all accounts, the Eagles offense and what they ask a QB to do so is vastly different than what Kolb was asked to do with the Cards. I think he at least needs more time to show what he can do

I think you're right here, and with the cash money invested in Kolb, the team kind of has to see what he can do with an actual offseason.

If you want to win now, then Kolb should start until he gets hurt. But is Kolb going to lead you to the playoffs? Is Kolb going to keep you competitive in the division? I know that a lot of people still think this is an open question, but I'm ready to say no.

And this is where I'm torn; was the late season charge (improved oline play, better defense, etc.) based on what Skelton did for the team, or was it the team finally coming together/maturing? We'll find this out real quick once the games start.

As much as I want to see Kolb succeed, I still don't believe in the end that he will work out, but I don't think Skelton will either. I've seen enough of Skelton to believe he's a limited QB.

Can Skelton do those things? I'm not ready to say yes, but I think that it actually is an open question with Skelton. Mainly this is because Skelton remains so limited that the coaching staff is more willing to do things that help the team win--like run the ball more often.

Run the ball more with Skelton? Not true. We actually ran the ball equally; we averaged 24.4 carries when Skelton started and 24.5 when Kolb started. If you include the Niners game that Kolb started, but Skelton finished, it would actually drop Skelton's numbers in favor of more rushing attempts under Kolb.

We also scored more points with Kolb under center, though not by much 20.44 vs. 18.75.

I'd rather pass 53% of the time with Skelton than pass 60% of the time with Kolb, because I think the results are going to be essentially the same. It's just a shame we have such a pig-headed offensive staff.

The offensive staff would obviously like to pass more than run, but that's not anything outside of the norm from the majority of the NFL.

Even if we have a winning record, I'm willing to bet we walk away from the 2012-2013 season looking for a QB. I just don't think the answer is on the roster right now.

 

[Phrazbit]

I still dont get what skill Kolb possesses that makes him seem like a remotely appealing long term option. Does he do ANYTHING at an above average level for an NFL QB? He is awful in the pocket, he stinks on deep throws, his accuracy is mediocre, he does not pick up yards on the ground, he cant extend plays, he fumbles frequently.

He can throw short routes... thats his "strength" and even that he does not do exceptionally well. And his talents in the short passing game are negated because he will likely take a 10+ yard sack at some point during a drive and render short passes useless.

Having sustained drives with a QB who has a high turnover rate, a high sack rate, who cant throw long and who frequently puts himself in long yardage situations is virtually impossible. And this is not a young QB we are talking about.

I do not see the physical or mental skills to make up for his boatloads of deficiencies. And this does not even touch on his injuries. He reminds me of Jon Kitna. You'll look at him on a box sheet and think "this guy isnt too bad", then you see him on film and he is freaking awful.

 

[Duckjake]

You mentioned something in Houseler and TE's in general I think is key. Housler was open so many times early in the year for TD's and they missed him. And it wasn't just Kolb, who missed him, Skelton did too. Houseler was wide freaking open. If those passes are completed it changes coverage in the future, completely changes it, but since we never completed anything decent over the middle then no, they don't even have to guard it.

I don't know who wins the QB duel, but they have to learn to throw to wide open TE's, those are the easiest passes to make!! They are the easiest by far!! Right in front of your face, wide open. If they can't make those, then every corner and LB is going to cheat to the WR's like they did last year.

Here's an odd stat. According to profootball-reference Skelton never missed Housler on a Deep Middle pass which I thought he had. Skelton did miss Housler deep right in the last game of the season and overall was 3-6 throwing to him. Another odd thing about Double Deuce. He had his best game of the season and his worst game of the season vs the 49ers. QB rating of 10.5 in game one and 106.5 in game two.

Kolb was 0-4 throwing to the TEs deep middle. 5-9 overall throwing to Housler. And 2-7 overall on deep targets to TEs.

Not wanting to be left out Bartel missed Housler deep middle vs the Vikings.

One thing that I learned from looking at those stats, and this goes along with what you are saying, is that the Cards, Skelton or Kolb or Bartel, were't worth a dang at throwing the ball over the middle. Deep or short.

 

[Darkside]

Here's an odd stat. According to profootball-reference Skelton never missed Housler on a Deep Middle pass which I thought he had. Skelton did miss Housler deep right in the last game of the season and overall was 3-6 throwing to him. Another odd thing about Double Deuce. He had his best game of the season and his worst game of the season vs the 49ers. QB rating of 10.5 in game one and 106.5 in game two.

Kolb was 0-4 throwing to the TEs deep middle. 5-9 overall throwing to Housler. And 2-7 overall on deep targets to TEs.

Not wanting to be left out Bartel missed Housler deep middle vs the Vikings.

One thing that I learned from looking at those stats, and this goes along with what you are saying, is that the Cards, Skelton or Kolb or Bartel, were't worth a dang at throwing the ball over the middle. Deep or short.

Interesting stat about double-deuce, I thought he missed Housler more than that. Especially over the middle. Seems like everyone missed Housler over the middle, which is weird, it's probably the easiest pass to make (though hard to see or throw over the DT's).

If they (whoever the QB is) start completing those passes to Housler it changes everything. Dudes won't cheat to the sidelines so much. But then again, I thought Beanie would cause them not to cheat and they still did even though he had a good year. We definitely need some TE play to keep the LB's honest, there's no doubt about that.

 

[THESMEL]

Hmm I missing something?

yes we climbed up to 24th in attempts and yards last year, and I applaud that, Our Qb's had alot of rushes, LSH had 30 some? over the last 5 years we are well behind any team in history in rush attempts and yardage ranking.

I guess that explains the Packers demise now doesn't it?

The 20 attempts per game average with DA, Max, Skelton and Bartell, in 2010 is by far the lowest I ever heard of? Hell even being last the 2 prior years with Kurt we averaged 21 or 22 rush attempts per game.

that aint on the players -that is stupid coaching and lack coaching fundementals? Lots of QB's want to throw every down, few surviving HC's allow it.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...efensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=true

we weren't last this last year FYI (28th). And had only 6 less rush attempts than the #1 regular season team (Packers)...

 

[Krangodnzr]

I still dont get what skill Kolb possesses that makes him seem like a remotely appealing long term option. Does he do ANYTHING at an above average level for an NFL QB? He is awful in the pocket, he stinks on deep throws, his accuracy is mediocre, he does not pick up yards on the ground, he cant extend plays, he fumbles frequently.

He can throw short routes... thats his "strength" and even that he does not do exceptionally well. And his talents in the short passing game are negated because he will likely take a 10+ yard sack at some point during a drive and render short passes useless.

Having sustained drives with a QB who has a high turnover rate, a high sack rate, who cant throw long and who frequently puts himself in long yardage situations is virtually impossible. And this is not a young QB we are talking about.

I do not see the physical or mental skills to make up for his boatloads of deficiencies. And this does not even touch on his injuries. He reminds me of Jon Kitna. You'll look at him on a box sheet and think "this guy isnt too bad", then you see him on film and he is freaking awful.

And yet statistically Kolb played better than Skelton.

 

[52brandon]

I guess that explains the Packers demise now doesn't it?

lol. Demise? They lost what? 1 regular season and 1 playoff game? Even without taking home a ring, I could hardly call that a "demise". And who beat em? The Giants? The worst rushing team in the NFL? Who also beat everybody else they faced in the playoffs... 32 teams played, only 1 takes home the trophy, and that is the team they lost to. Nothing to be ashamed about

 

[Garthshort]

I'm sure that after the first day of OTA's, we'll be asking which QB has the lead? Which is "Bodemeister", and which is "I'll Have Another"?

 

[JeffGollin]

One thing that I learned from looking at those stats, and this goes along with what you are saying, is that the Cards, Skelton or Kolb or Bartel, were't worth a dang at throwing the ball over the middle. Deep or short.

Just wondering, but - was it because all three couldn't throw over the middle or because the interior protection broke down giving them no open passing lanes over the middle?

 

[Krangodnzr]

Just wondering, but - was it because all three couldn't throw over the middle or because the interior protection broke down giving them no open passing lanes over the middle?

From the eyeball test, I saw lots of missed opportunities. As bad as the protection was at times, there were also many times where are QBs flat out missed open receivers.

 

[THESMEL]

yep

Don't confuse results, the "worse" rushing team didn't stop rushing, and it worked out pretty good for them. that pass game does not get off the ground without stubborn Coughlin running- You didn't have to play run against the Packers? that matters alot

lol. Demise? They lost what? 1 regular season and 1 playoff game? Even without taking home a ring, I could hardly call that a "demise". And who beat em? The Giants? The worst rushing team in the NFL? Who also beat everybody else they faced in the playoffs... 32 teams played, only 1 takes home the trophy, and that is the team they lost to. Nothing to be ashamed about

 

[Duckjake]

And yet statistically Kolb played better than Skelton.

Well except for the most important stat of all, wins and losses.

The 2nd SF game when Double Deuce came in for Kolb makes me believe Skelton can become a really good QB. I know SF was without that LB what's his name but still a 106.5 QB rating against a top NFL defense and one of only 3 QBs to beat the niners in the regular season. And he was 3-4 for 124 yards and 2TDs throwing over the middle!

Double Deuce the hope for the future.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

From the eyeball test, I saw lots of missed opportunities. As bad as the protection was at times, there were also many times where are QBs flat out missed open receivers.

BIM: our

 

[kerouac9]

Either way, he's more accurate considering all the empirical data (Eagles/Cardinals stats). Skelton is atrocious on the short to intermediate passes. He's Kent Graham bad. If Skelton can improve here, he's head and shoulders better than Kolb.

A problem with both QBs is that there are A LOT of open receivers. Last season I constantly saw Roberts, Housler/King/Heap, and Doucet open, and neither QB looked like they were capable of consistently hitting the open man.

I'd like to see some statistical evidence of this on Skelton. The Football Outsiders Almanac comes out in July--I'll see what they have to say about this. I honestly don't remember it being an issue.

You give Skelton the benefit of the doubt on lack of practice time, but you won't do the same for Kolb? At least Skelton had been in the program for over a year and had access to the playbook. He also got more reps in the shortened offseason program than Kolb. According to all accounts, the Eagles offense and what they ask a QB to do so is vastly different than what Kolb was asked to do with the Cards. I think he at least needs more time to show what he can do

I think you're right here, and with the cash money invested in Kolb, the team kind of has to see what he can do with an actual offseason.

Yup. Kolb doesn't get any benefit of the doubt. The entire reason that we gave up two valuable assets and a fair-sized guaranteed salary figure is because he was expected to be a finished product when he came into camp. That's why we paid for him--not so that we could develop him over two or three years. And, no, systems are not that different around the NFL. Jim McNulty said as much when he was hired, and Kolb said the same thing.

Compared to Skelton, who was the 4th QB through his rookie camp, then was the 3rd QB during the season (who gets little to no attention or development), then the backup to a QB who was expected to come in as the starter and then got injured in the preseason? Between that and a fifth-year veteran from what is by all accounts one of the best quarterback coaching franchises in the NFL? It's not even close.

And this is where I'm torn; was the late season charge (improved oline play, better defense, etc.) based on what Skelton did for the team, or was it the team finally coming together/maturing? We'll find this out real quick once the games start.

As much as I want to see Kolb succeed, I still don't believe in the end that he will work out, but I don't think Skelton will either. I've seen enough of Skelton to believe he's a limited QB.

I kind of feel the same way. I don't think tha tthe team finally coming together/maturing is independent of Skelton becoming the guy. Kolb was supposed to be the offensive savior (as was Derek Anderson), and you can't just import those guys and have them suck. When limited Skelton came in, no one thought that he was going to be able to put up 28 PPG, and so the unit rallied around him.

Run the ball more with Skelton? Not true. We actually ran the ball equally; we averaged 24.4 carries when Skelton started and 24.5 when Kolb started. If you include the Niners game that Kolb started, but Skelton finished, it would actually drop Skelton's numbers in favor of more rushing attempts under Kolb.

We also scored more points with Kolb under center, though not by much 20.44 vs. 18.75.

I thought I'd check this out. It's not just attempts. To me, it's about pass calls and the ratio of pass to run. So when I say "ATT" below, I mean "attempts + sacks + QB rushes". Only rushing attempts by backs or receivers count as called runs.

I'm also going to exclude both San Francisco games from this analysis, since one game didn't have a game plan made with Skelton in mind, and the other didn't feature Skelton for the whole game:

CAR (Kolb) - 33 ATT/21 RU
@WAS (Kolb) - 33 ATT/15 RU
@SEA (Kolb) - 45 ATT/25 RU (Beanie's out in this game, so there was really nothing to work with on offense)
NYG (Kolb) - 40 ATT/30 RU
@MIN (Kolb) - 54 ATT/22 RU
PIT (Kolb) - 38 ATT/17 RU
@BAL (Kolb) - 28 ATT/29 RU
STL (Skelton) - 42 ATT/13 RU
@PHI (Skelton) - 48 ATT/25 RU
@STL (Skelton) - 29 ATT/35 RU
DAL (Kolb) - 33 ATT/22 RU
CLE (Skelton) - 52 ATT/21 RU
CIN (Skelton) - 53 ATT/14 RU
SEA (Skelton) - 47 ATT/26 RU

Wow. I was wrong about that. It's baffling that we would pass the ball that much with Skelton.

Kolb's starts: 304 passing plays, 181 rushes. We passed 62.6% of the time with Kolb under center.
Skelton's starts: 271 passing plays, 134 rushes. Passed 66.9% of the time when Skelton was the expected starter.

As I said, utterly baffling.

The offensive staff would obviously like to pass more than run, but that's not anything outside of the norm from the majority of the NFL.

Even if we have a winning record, I'm willing to bet we walk away from the 2012-2013 season looking for a QB. I just don't think the answer is on the roster right now.

If we have a winning record, where do you look for a QB? If we have a winning record with Kolb, then we'll pay him his $10 million 2013 salary happily. If we win with Skelton, he takes the starting job and we draft an OLB with the 22nf overall pick.

The nightmare scenario for me remains what happens if we go .500 plus or minus a game and Kolb puts up a QB rating between 78 and 83? Do you want to pay Matt Cassel $10 million a year?

 

[Duckjake]

I'd like to see some statistical evidence of this on Skelton. The Football Outsiders Almanac comes out in July--I'll see what they have to say about this. I honestly don't remember it being an issue

profootball-reference.com has targets short and deep, right, middle and left in their boxscores. So if you have insomnia some night or like me do research while you are eating lunch you can check the games.

They also have play by play now so you don't have to put up with wading through all the pages on nfl.com for those.

 

[Phrazbit]

And yet statistically Kolb played better than Skelton.

Who cares? Like I said in the previous post; Kolb looks average in a box score, but horrific on film. If he loses games, cant sustain drives and is awful when it matters does it matter if he has a middling QB rating?

A QB who has a strong likelihood of completing an 8 yard pass on 3rd and 15! Where can I sign up?!?!

 

[AzStevenCal]

Wow. I was wrong about that. It's baffling that we would pass the ball that much with Skelton.

Kolb's starts[/B]: 304 passing plays, 181 rushes. We passed 62.6% of the time with Kolb under center.
Skelton's starts[/B]: 271 passing plays, 134 rushes. Passed 66.9% of the time when Skelton was the expected starter.

As I said, utterly baffling.

Don't you think some of that (most of that) is a function of Beanie's declining health as the season progressed?

Steve