Whisenhunt says Kolb vs. Skelton

[Krangodnzr]

Don't you think some of that (most of that) is a function of Beanie's declining health as the season progressed?

Steve

I know the question was aimed at Kerouac, but the answer is definitely yes.

One fact that I found funny, was according to a piece by Mike Sando on his NFC West blog, Beanie Wells was by far the worst RB in the division at getting yards after contact by a strong margin, and yet his ypc was .1 worse than Steven Jackson and .1 better than Marshawn Lynch.

What this would mean to me, is that our offensive line isn't as bad run blocking as a lot of the fans believe. I know Beanie was hurt, but he wasn't getting the most out of every run.

I'm seriously concerned about the health of our RBs after last year, and I'm a bit miffed that we didn't bring in a veteran/draft pick to bolster our backfield.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I'd like to see some statistical evidence of this on Skelton. The Football Outsiders Almanac comes out in July--I'll see what they have to say about this. I honestly don't remember it being an issue.

I know Joeshmo pulled out the chart a few times of where Skelton completes his passes, and he has been horrible in this area. I

Yup. Kolb doesn't get any benefit of the doubt. The entire reason that we gave up two valuable assets and a fair-sized guaranteed salary figure is because he was expected to be a finished product when he came into camp. That's why we paid for him--not so that we could develop him over two or three years. And, no, systems are not that different around the NFL. Jim McNulty said as much when he was hired, and Kolb said the same thing.

Well that (the differences between the offenses) is a departure from what was said early last year, and I noticed that they flip flopped on that statement.

Last year was the perfect storm for Kolb to fail; with little time to practice and not too many starts of his own, Kolb was destined to struggle. But I'll give him at least through the preseason and first few games before I stick a fork in him.

Compared to Skelton, who was the 4th QB through his rookie camp, then was the 3rd QB during the season (who gets little to no attention or development), then the backup to a QB who was expected to come in as the starter and then got injured in the preseason? Between that and a fifth-year veteran from what is by all accounts one of the best quarterback coaching franchises in the NFL? It's not even close.

Say what you will, but Skelton was with the Arizona Cardinals (including actual starts his rookie year) longer than Kolb had been. He wasn't learning a brand new playbook as the season progressed, and if he was, then we have some things to worry about with his (Skelton's) mental capacity.

I kind of feel the same way. I don't think tha tthe team finally coming together/maturing is independent of Skelton becoming the guy. Kolb was supposed to be the offensive savior (as was Derek Anderson), and you can't just import those guys and have them suck. When limited Skelton came in, no one thought that he was going to be able to put up 28 PPG, and so the unit rallied around him.

Where I see that it (the team coming together because of Skelton) wasn't really the case, is that it was the defense that started playing better, not the offense. Like I stated earlier we average less points under Skelton. And last I checked, Skelton didn't log any snaps at LB.

I thought I'd check this out. It's not just attempts. To me, it's about pass calls and the ratio of pass to run. So when I say "ATT" below, I mean "attempts + sacks + QB rushes". Only rushing attempts by backs or receivers count as called runs.

I'm also going to exclude both San Francisco games from this analysis, since one game didn't have a game plan made with Skelton in mind, and the other didn't feature Skelton for the whole game:

CAR (Kolb) - 33 ATT/21 RU
@WAS (Kolb) - 33 ATT/15 RU
@SEA (Kolb) - 45 ATT/25 RU (Beanie's out in this game, so there was really nothing to work with on offense)
NYG (Kolb) - 40 ATT/30 RU
@MIN (Kolb) - 54 ATT/22 RU
PIT (Kolb) - 38 ATT/17 RU
@BAL (Kolb) - 28 ATT/29 RU
STL (Skelton) - 42 ATT/13 RU
@PHI (Skelton) - 48 ATT/25 RU
@STL (Skelton) - 29 ATT/35 RU
DAL (Kolb) - 33 ATT/22 RU
CLE (Skelton) - 52 ATT/21 RU
CIN (Skelton) - 53 ATT/14 RU
SEA (Skelton) - 47 ATT/26 RU

Wow. I was wrong about that. It's baffling that we would pass the ball that much with Skelton.

Kolb's starts: 304 passing plays, 181 rushes. We passed 62.6% of the time with Kolb under center.
Skelton's starts: 271 passing plays, 134 rushes. Passed 66.9% of the time when Skelton was the expected starter.

As I said, utterly baffling.

It's a function of RB health, honestly. Skelton's first start, Beanie Wells breaks Cardinals single game rushing record. Whisenhunt was forced to pass more since Beanie wasn't healthy (and still isn't).

If we have a winning record, where do you look for a QB? If we have a winning record with Kolb, then we'll pay him his $10 million 2013 salary happily. If we win with Skelton, he takes the starting job and we draft an OLB with the 22nf overall pick.

The nightmare scenario for me remains what happens if we go .500 plus or minus a game and Kolb puts up a QB rating between 78 and 83? Do you want to pay Matt Cassel $10 million a year?

If we had a winning record but neither QB distinguished themselves, I would base my decision on how Acho/Schofield have developed. If both are at least competent OLB passrushers, then I trade a future pick to move up and select one of the top QBs.

Yeah that is a nightmare scenario but a plausible one unfortunately. But I could see Skelton or Kolb fitting that bill.

What would be ideal is if Kolb plays amazingly, we lock up an early playoff game, and then Skelton gets a few starts and tears it up. Then we trade Skelton for a pick to a QB needy team.

 

[Duckjake]

Where I see that it (the team coming together because of Skelton) wasn't really the case, is that it was the defense that started playing better, not the offense. Like I stated earlier we average less points under Skelton. And last I checked, Skelton didn't log any snaps at LB.

However, Double Deuce did log a lot of 4th quarter snaps at QB and led 4 game winning drives. Our defense didn't score and didn't really play much better than they did vs Redskins and Seahawks1, games the Cards lost. We can throw out our elbows patting ourselves on the back with how good we think our defense got but the reality is they simply played weaker teams, although we do have the best FG defense in the NFL which was critical in at least two wins. There is no hiding from going 1-5 versus playoff teams last season.

I'm also still concerned about the Cards getting gouged for 463 rushing yards combined the last 3 games of the season and giving up 150+ yards rushing 7 times and nothing was done to shore up the ILB position.

No matter how people try to spin it, with the exception of Rams1, Double Deuce was QB when the Cards put the points on the board that allowed us to win the games. I don't recall Daryl Washington or Darnell Dockett playing any snaps at QB.

As for the team coming together I'd say winning 7 of 9 had a lot to do with it.

Finally we will find out what Kolb's made of this season. Is he one of the guys posters are always claiming only play well in a contract year and then check it in once they get the big money or is he determined to prove people like me wrong? Kolb is set for life now financially. What's he made the last 2.5 seasons over $30 million? He doesn't have to sit behind that Cardinals line and get hammered and risk serious injury. Let's hope he has the fortitude to do what Massie said he's going to do and show all the naysayers they were wrong.

 

[52brandon]

Don't confuse results, the "worse" rushing team didn't stop rushing, and it worked out pretty good for them. that pass game does not get off the ground without stubborn Coughlin running- You didn't have to play run against the Packers? that matters alot

you understand that 21 teams ran the ball more than NYG right? 9 of the other 11 playoff teams ran the ball more than they did as well. Why didn't any of them win?

 

[JCSunsfan]

I don't doubt what Whis says is true.

The money thing cuts both ways: Skelton would be cheaper going forward then Kolb. The $7mm paid to him is a sunk cost. Think of it as buying a very expensive option

This. It is not in Whiz interest to play the lesser qb. They already knew they were not getting Manning when they gave Kolb the bonus. They knew Kolb and Skelton were neck and neck but the were not ready by any means to put all their eggs in the Skelton basket.

Good on them for ponying up the money.

If Skelton wins it, Kolb could be traded.

 

[Duckjake]

This. It is not in Whiz interest to play the lesser qb. They already knew they were not getting Manning when they gave Kolb the bonus. They knew Kolb and Skelton were neck and neck but the were not ready by any means to put all their eggs in the Skelton basket.

Good on them for ponying up the money.

If Skelton wins it, Kolb could be traded.

The one thing that concerns me about this is that we are talking about the same people who put all their eggs in the DeWreck Anderson basket.

So we still have to wonder if they know what the heck they're doing.

I will say this: My biggest knock on Whisenhunt was that in 4 years in Arizona he hadn't been able to put together a decent defense. Now he has done that. At least I hope he has and last season's turn around wasn't just a result of playing weaker teams the last half of the season. Seattle had more yards and more points in game 2 and the D blew a 20-13 lead by giving up a 61 yard TD pass with 7:56 left. But they did hold the Seahawks to a 3 and out after Seattle had a 47 yard kickoff return to start Overtime.

And then Double Deuce drove the Cards from their own 19 to the Seattle 10 for the game winning FG in OT going 4-4 for 51 yards including converting a 4th and 1.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

And yet statistically Kolb played better than Skelton.

Agreed. That is because 75% of the time he plays like poop.
But the 25% of the time that Double Deuce is on his game is when it counts the most and the proof of that is backed by his win loss record.

Lot easier to a develop a guy that wins while he is developing.

Sent from Rugbymuffin's Super Phone

 

[Krangodnzr]

Agreed. That is because 75% of the time he plays like poop.
But the 25% of the time that Double Deuce is on his game is when it counts the most and the proof of that is backed by his win loss record.

Lot easier to a develop a guy that wins while he is developing.

Sent from Rugbymuffin's Super Phone

It's also a whole easier to win when your defense is playing better. Skelton had an improved defense over what Kolb had in his starts.

 

[Phrazbit]

It's also a whole easier to win when your defense is playing better. Skelton had an improved defense over what Kolb had in his starts.

Yeah, because against Washington, Seattle, Baltimore and New York Kolb clearly took advantage of late game situations with a chance to win. Blaming the defense for Kolb is a nice idea but the facts dont support it. He never exactly gave the defense a hand, and against Seattle, Baltimore, Minnesota and even Washington to an extent (the offense ran five total PLAYS in the entire 4th quarter over 3 drives) he really screwed the defense over.

In Kolb's 2 wins owes a fair amount of credit to good special teams play (Cards vs Panthers) and bad special teams play (Cowboys vs us) for giving him the chance to get a W on the board. So on one hand you can try to say "his record would have been better if not for the D", it can easily be said "he was 2 special teams plays away from being 0-8 this season".

 

[RugbyMuffin]

It's also a whole easier to win when your defense is playing better. Skelton had an improved defense over what Kolb had in his starts.

Sorry, that is a lame excuse, still gotta get the job done. I will give you the "defense" excuse to a point. It is not like the defense shut out EVERY team when Skelton was playing. And regardless of defense, when the game was on the line, Skelton came out on top and performed better in the clutch then Kolb.

Kolb did nothing to help the Cardinals win against the Vikings, Seahawks, and Ravens, IIRC.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Sorry, that is a lame excuse, still gotta get the job done. I will give you the "defense" excuse to a point. It is not like the defense shut out EVERY team when Skelton was playing. And regardless of defense, when the game was on the line, Skelton came out on top and performed better in the clutch then Kolb.

Kolb did nothing to help the Cardinals win against the Vikings, Seahawks, and Ravens, IIRC.

There would have been little opportunity for Skelton to perform in the 'clutch', if not for a 'D' that gave up 17 points a game in the last half of the season and kept the Cards in the game through the 3 and outs and turnovers at the 50 yard line or better.

 

[AzStevenCal]

There would have been little opportunity for Skelton to perform in the 'clutch', if not for a 'D' that gave up 17 points a game in the last half of the season and kept the Cards in the game through the 3 and outs and turnovers at the 50 yard line or better.

Quite true but does that really mean much in the context of Kolb vs Skelton? The ability to lead your team to a clutch win isn't all that typical among NFL quarterbacks.

Steve

 

[Duckjake]

Yeah, because against Washington, Seattle, Baltimore and New York Kolb clearly took advantage of late game situations with a chance to win. Blaming the defense for Kolb is a nice idea but the facts dont support it. He never exactly gave the defense a hand, and against Seattle, Baltimore, Minnesota and even Washington to an extent (the offense ran five total PLAYS in the entire 4th quarter over 3 drives) he really screwed the defense over.

In Kolb's 2 wins owes a fair amount of credit to good special teams play (Cards vs Panthers) and bad special teams play (Cowboys vs us) for giving him the chance to get a W on the board. So on one hand you can try to say "his record would have been better if not for the D", it can easily be said "he was 2 special teams plays away from being 0-8 this season".

Against Seattle with the game on the line in the 4th quarter after the D got the ball back for the Cards with 2:57 to go Kolb hits two passes and then goes 1-5 plus a sack and a fumble recovered by Brandon Keith on his next 6 attempts. Against Seattle after the D gets the ball back in overtime Double Deuce goes 4-4 during a 71 yard drive for the game winning FG.

 

[Mainstreet]

There would have been little opportunity for Skelton to perform in the 'clutch', if not for a 'D' that gave up 17 points a game in the last half of the season and kept the Cards in the game through the 3 and outs and turnovers at the 50 yard line or better.

Another way to look at it, the defense needed a reason to play clutch... the hope of winning which Skelton provided. I think the defense believed in what Skelton could do.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Sorry, that is a lame excuse, still gotta get the job done. I will give you the "defense" excuse to a point. It is not like the defense shut out EVERY team when Skelton was playing. And regardless of defense, when the game was on the line, Skelton came out on top and performed better in the clutch then Kolb.

Kolb did nothing to help the Cardinals win against the Vikings, Seahawks, and Ravens, IIRC.

Look, I'm not defending Kevin Kolb; I see shades of Jake Plummer when I watch John Skelton. Plays poorly for 3 1/2 quarters then turns it out in final part of the game.

I think it should be an open competition between the two in training camp/preseason. And after the season we need to draft a QB. That's my stance.

 

[chickenhead]

Even if all Skelton does is win, even if the team rallies around him, and even if he wins the job outright: he still needs to make a significant step forward if the Cardinals are going to truly compete. I'm pulling for the guy, and love the story--and will be the first to give him credit--but he has benefited from being compared favorably to Kolb and DA.

 

[Duckjake]

Even if all Skelton does is win, even if the team rallies around him, and even if he wins the job outright: he still needs to make a significant step forward if the Cardinals are going to truly compete. I'm pulling for the guy, and love the story--and will be the first to give him credit--but he has benefited from being compared favorably to Kolb and DA.

This is the glimpse of the future with Double Deuce:

19-28-282 yards and 3 TDs. Cold off the bench. Down 19-7 in the 3rd quarter leads a 75 yard scoring drive followed up later with a 73 yard scoring drive in the 4th to take the lead for good. 6-6 passing in the 4th quarter. Versus a team that was 10-2 coming into Arizona, one of the top defenses in the NFL and our #1 rival.

Jump on while there's still seats available.

 

[Chopper0080]

I believe Skelton will end the season as the starting QB purely because he plays better in the "muck" than Kolb. I don't see our offensive line making such strides to where Kolb isn't having to move around to find throwing lanes. Skelton's size allows him to hang in, see the field, and make a pass despite players around him.

The real question for me is if Skelton will play well enough for this team to forgo drafting a QB in the first round of next years draft.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

There would have been little opportunity for Skelton to perform in the 'clutch', if not for a 'D' that gave up 17 points a game in the last half of the season and kept the Cards in the game through the 3 and outs and turnovers at the 50 yard line or better.

100% agreed.

I know Kolb was given a few opportunities like you describe at the beginning of the year to perform in the clutch.

He didn't seem to have the same success. The record at the beginning of the year indicates as much.

 

[john h]

lol, wow, guess my memory is worse than I thought. I thought Matty had a fat contract. Thanks for clarifying

All this talk about $$$ is making my head spin. You start the best QB regardless of what he is paid. Do you want the best pilot to be the Capt of your aircraft or the highest paid one. Believe me the highest paid one is not always the best one. The highest paid one is generally the one with the highest time paying union dues.

 

[Duckjake]

All this talk about $$$ is making my head spin. You start the best QB regardless of what he is paid. Do you want the best pilot to be the Capt of your aircraft or the highest paid one. Believe me the highest paid one is not always the best one. The highest paid one is generally the one with the highest time paying union dues.

Doesn't apply in the NFL. There is no allowance for seniority in the CBA.

Pro Sports is about money. Teams aren't going to jettison guys they've paid huge amounts of money until they see what they have. This year that means Kolb starts.

Normally you would be able to tell who is going to be the starter by who didn't play much in the pre season games. I don't know if that will be the case this year because both QBs need more work than normal.

 

[AzStevenCal]

All this talk about $$$ is making my head spin. You start the best QB regardless of what he is paid. Do you want the best pilot to be the Capt of your aircraft or the highest paid one. Believe me the highest paid one is not always the best one. The highest paid one is generally the one with the highest time paying union dues.

It's just not that simple. The coaching staff talked the organization into pursuing Kolb. If Kevin fails it can't help but reflect poorly on Whiz. I think he's done more than enough here to survive a flop such as this now and then but add in the DA fiasco and questions arise.

Steve

 

[Crazy Canuck]

100% agreed.

I know Kolb was given a few opportunities like you describe at the beginning of the year to perform in the clutch.

He didn't seem to have the same success. The record at the beginning of the year indicates as much.

True enough. I do recall, however, a fumble by Stucky when were moving towards a winning score against Washington, and a tip ball interception against Seattle. I take nothing away from Skelton's "pulling it out of the fire", but note that it came with the vast improvement of our "D" and better communication on our "0" line.

 

[Phrazbit]

True enough. I do recall, however, a fumble by Stucky when were moving towards a winning score against Washington, and a tip ball interception against Seattle. I take nothing away from Skelton's "pulling it out of the fire", but note that it came with the vast improvement of our "D" and better communication on our "0" line.

The Seattle pass wasnt tipped. He threw it straight into coverage. I recall a nice breakdown of how bad Kolb's pass was posted in a thread last year...

here it is.



And the fumble against Washington was on the 1st play of the drive and on our own 20... while that particular play was not Kolb fault, to also say he was "moving towards a winning score" is giving him a lot of undue credit.

 

[Duckjake]

The Seattle pass wasnt tipped. He threw it straight into coverage. I recall a nice breakdown of how bad Kolb's pass was posted in a thread last year...

And the fumble against Washington was on the 1st play of the drive and on our own 20... while that particular play was not Kolb fault, to also say he was "moving towards a winning score" is giving him a lot of undue credit.

The Kolb Excuse Book gets more pages every day.