With the 4th pick, the Phoenix Suns Select

[Sunburn]

His first three seasons his career shooting percentage is 42% and he took a TON of shots. He was a second round pick until his senior year where he vaulted to 50% shooting but it is such a statistical jump you know it's coming back down.

He isn't particularly athletic. He isn't a good defender. He had a career shooting year taking a big volume of shots then looked like crap the moment he played a real team in the tournament.

Add in his age and his inability to pass. Terrible player to even consider in the top 10.

I am not advocating drafting Hield. However, your numbers are misleading. He was a high volume three point shooter in college, taking more threes in his career than twos. In 2012-13, he shot 48% from two and 24% from three. In 2013-14, he shot 51% from two and 39% from three. In 2014-15, he shot 47% from two and 36% from three. In 2015-16, he shot 55% from two and 46% from three. With a player like Hield, you can't just look at combined field goal percentage. The data becomes skewed relative to player's that shoot a higher proportion of two point shots. Steph Curry was a career 47% shooter in college with Hield ending up at 45%. JJ Reddick was a career 43% shooter. In contrast, Eddie House took almost twice as many two point attempts as 3 point attempts in college, while still averaging just 43% overall for his career.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/buddy-hield-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/stephen-curry-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jj-redick-1.html

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/eddie-house-1.html

 

[Hoop Head]

I'm not sold on Hield at #4 for many of the reasons already mentioned like his passing/assist numbers, he's a ball stopper, has only had 1 really good year in college, and we have Booker and Knight plus potentially Bogdanovic at SG already. I'm not sure I'd pick him at #13 either if he was there because part of the luxury of having multiple 1st round picks, not just that but multiple lottery picks, means they can go for BPA with #4 and try to fill a need at #13, whether a project or a player that can contribute right away. They can gamble more than usual at #13 because who they get at #4 should be either more of a sure thing, at least a better prospect with more potential if not able to make an immediate impact.

If I'm the Suns I'm thinking, is the #4 pick really best spent on a player who at best will play backup to our current rookie will be sophomore next season? Not just that but he's already 3-4 years older than the player he'll be backing up, who also happens to be the brightest piece of the team's future and a potential franchise player. I say no. You'd like to think if the #4 pick can't get you a future starter it would get you a quality 6th man type of player and looking at players who were in the running this year for the award it's almost all players who can play multiple positions, mainly a combination of SG, PG, and SF, at least 2 of the 3. I don't think Hield can play more than SG in the NBA. We would need a better backup PG if Hield were the 6th man also, I don't think sliding Booker or Knight over to PG with Hield at SG to keep the offense moving or flowing very well.

Based on how much talent the team has at SG I'd pass on him at #13 also since he doesn't seem to be a multi-positioned player and arguably our best shot at a superstar right now shares the same natural position as him, is much younger, and has shown more potential than Hield has talent.

If you're picking a college senior that high in the draft they should be more of a sure thing at the next level and stand out with a couple of skills that should translate well to the pro game, Hield only has shooting. His size means his scoring might not translate that well since he'll be a smaller SG. His only quality/standout year statistically was his senior year, which is when he had 4 years to learn the system he played in, the collegiate competition, and game. By game & competition I mean he was older & more experienced at that level of competition than his teammates and opponents. All of that will be much different in the NBA. Since he's already 23 years old he also doesn't really have much, if any, untapped potential. For better or worse he's who he'll be throughout his career, which is a smaller shooting guard who isn't a good passer or playmaker which to me indicates a low basketball IQ. His ball handled isn't very good for a guard either. Sure his wingspan measured good but he's still not big enough to play SF regularly without giving up a lot of size and strength. His ceiling is JJ Redick and his floor is probably someone like Brandon Rush, a fairly decent 4th guard in the rotation but that's all he is.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Ok. Just some thoughts on Hield.

1. We all want a guaranteed player at #4. This draft doesn't have one.

2. LOTS of players continue to develop dramatically after 22 years old--even guards. Curry, Nash both come to mind. Even though they were a little older when drafted, their games improved through their 20's. Many players do not really improve after 18 or 19 even though they have huge potential. You really have to get inside a players head to figure that out.

I understand the concerns about redundancy, but I don't want to be the team that passed on a star player because we THOUGHT we already had one. I don't want to pass on Michael Jordan because we already have Clyde Drexler. And no, I am not saying Hield will be an MJ, just referencing a scenario.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Ok. Just some thoughts on Hield.

1. We all want a guaranteed player at #4. This draft doesn't have one.

2. LOTS of players continue to develop dramatically after 22 years old--even guards. Curry, Nash both come to mind. Even though they were a little older when drafted, their games improved through their 20's. Many players do not really improve after 18 or 19 even though they have huge potential. You really have to get inside a players head to figure that out.

I understand the concerns about redundancy, but I don't want to be the team that passed on a star player because we THOUGHT we already had one. I don't want to pass on Michael Jordan because we already have Clyde Drexler. And no, I am not saying Hield will be an MJ, just referencing a scenario.

but the scenario is in no way shape or form close to the situation here. Jordan was an absolute, sure-fire stud. Heild is a big question mark. Going redundant at the SG position for anything but a sure-fire stud doesn't make sense considering what we have in Booker.

And before you say "all drafted players are question marks", that's true to an extent but Heild isn't even in the same class comparison-wise as sure-fire drafted player like Michael was.

 

[JCSunsfan]

but the scenario is in no way shape or form close to the situation here. Jordan was an absolute, sure-fire stud. Heild is a big question mark. Going redundant at the SG position for anything but a sure-fire stud doesn't make sense considering what we have in Booker.



And before you say "all drafted players are question marks", that's true to an extent but Heild isn't even in the same class comparison-wise as sure-fire drafted player like Michael was.

Nor is Booker in the same class with Drexler. They took Sam Bowie instead. People thought Jordan would be good but no one knew he would be that good. No one.

 

[sunsfan88]

Ok. Just some thoughts on Hield.

1. We all want a guaranteed player at #4. This draft doesn't have one.

2. LOTS of players continue to develop dramatically after 22 years old--even guards. Curry, Nash both come to mind. Even though they were a little older when drafted, their games improved through their 20's. Many players do not really improve after 18 or 19 even though they have huge potential. You really have to get inside a players head to figure that out.

I understand the concerns about redundancy, but I don't want to be the team that passed on a star player because we THOUGHT we already had one. I don't want to pass on Michael Jordan because we already have Clyde Drexler. And no, I am not saying Hield will be an MJ, just referencing a scenario.

Hield isn't a star player. He doesn't have anywhere close to the talent or ceiling of Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram. If he did, sure maybe I would say that he's too good a prospect to pass on even while we do have Booker.

I think if Devin Booker was in this draft, he would go higher than Hield would. Hell I think maybe even Bogdanavic would.

Drafting a player at the same exact position after having spent a lottery pick on that same position is not a good idea. It's a luxury that the Suns don't have, the Suns have far too many holes on the roster to keep trying to stockpile the backcourt. If you don't believe me, ask the 76ers who spent picks on Noel, Embiid and then Okafor. The GM who made those picks is no longer in the league.

 

[Chaplin]

Hield isn't a star player. He doesn't have anywhere close to the talent or ceiling of Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram. If he did, sure maybe I would say that he's too good a prospect to pass on even while we do have Booker.

I think if Devin Booker was in this draft, he would go higher than Hield would. Hell I think maybe even Bogdanavic would.

Drafting a player at the same exact position after having spent a lottery pick on that same position is not a good idea. It's a luxury that the Suns don't have, the Suns have far too many holes on the roster to keep trying to stockpile the backcourt. If you don't believe me, ask the 76ers who spent picks on Noel, Embiid and then Okafor. The GM who made those picks is no longer in the league.

Agree with most of what you say, except the bolded. That's crazy talk. Bogdan would be AT BEST worthy of the #13. MAYBE.

 

[sunsfan88]

Agree with most of what you say, except the bolded. That's crazy talk. Bogdan would be AT BEST worthy of the #13. MAYBE.

Yea maybe that's stretching it a bit. But with the experience that he's had playing in Europe professionally since being drafted, I certainly think he's more NBA ready than Hield and personally I think he will be as good if not better than Hield even if he doesn't have the same hype surrounding Hield.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So, while everyone says "BPA is the way to go" they really do not mean it.

Listen. I am not sure Hield is the BPA at the 4. Individual workouts and interviews are necessary, not just with Hield but also with other players. But if it ends up that he is clearly the BPA, you take him and figure the rest out later. Trades are going to happen anyway.

I would not count his age against him. His shooting, which is the most desirable NBA skill today, is otherworldly. It also seems to me that Buddy's shooting is so good, people assume the rest of his game is bad. For instance, people are concerned about his handle and passing, yet NBAdraft.net ranks Hields ball-handling an 8 (Murray is a 7), and passing an 8 (Murray a 7).

I know. NBAdraft.net does not matter to many. But if it was that different in Murray's favor, I doubt it would read this way.

I am just pleading for open minds here.

 

[Mainstreet]

The Suns do not have a power forward under contract. Leuer and Teletovic are minimally backup power forwards should one be re-signed. I have increasingly become concerned that the Suns will need to address the power forward position with their first pick to get someone they prefer. They cannot count on the best option falling to #13.

If the Suns could trade the #4 pick for a young PF, I might go that route. However, if the Suns stay at #4 they need to get a power forward here. Just who that may be is debatable. The Suns will know more after team workouts. However for now, I have the Suns drafting Henry Ellenson.

Here is a part of a March 17, 2016 scouting report by Jonathan Givony from DraftExpress.

At 20 points per-40 minutes, Ellenson ranked among the most prolific freshmen in college basketball this season offensively. Able to put the ball in the basket from virtually anywhere on the floor, his instincts and natural scoring touch are extremely impressive for someone his age.

Ellenson shows potential as a perimeter shooter, knocking down 30 3-pointers in 33 games this season, but is not quite there yet in terms of consistency, hitting just 29% of his attempts. Looking at his shooting mechanics, and the fact that he knocked down 75% of his free throw attempts, it's not difficult to envision him becoming an effective floor spacing big man in time, as his streakiness as a shooter seemed to have more to do with shot-selection than any concerns about his natural ability. He was very effective in the mid-range area, hitting 40% of his attempts on the season there (SST), sometimes pulling up off the dribble impressively, but had a tendency to short-arm many of his 3-point attempts, which often came with a hand in his face.

What separates Ellenson from most big men is the skill-level he demonstrates with the ball in his hands. He's extremely impressive with his ability to put the ball on the floor, not just when grabbing a defensive rebound and going coast to coast, but also in the half-court, using shot-fakes, advanced ball-handling moves and body control to create his own shot and get to the rim.

Ellenson is a real mismatch at his size, something that can probably be utilized even more effectively with NBA spacing, particularly in smaller lineups with multiple shooting options surrounding him. He's the rare big man who can be utilized effectively as the ball-handler in both pick and roll or isolation situations, as he can drive left and right and mix in some impressive change of speed and direction moves. He knows how to slow down and speed up instinctively with his long strides to beat defenders and make his way to the rim, and utilizes outstanding footwork to spin around opponents and finish with soft touch.

There are defensive question marks about Ellenson but I like what he brings to the table at age 19.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The Suns do not have a power forward under contract. Leuer and Teletovic are minimally backup power forwards should one be re-signed. I have increasingly become concerned that the Suns will need to address the power forward position with their first pick to get someone they prefer. They cannot count on the best option falling to #13.

If the Suns could trade the #4 pick for a young PF, I might go that route. However, if the Suns stay at #4 they need to get a power forward here. Just who that may be is debatable. The Suns will know more after team workouts. However for now, I have the Suns drafting Henry Ellenson.

Here is a part of a March 17, 2016 scouting report by Jonathan Givony from DraftExpress.


There are defensive question marks about Ellenson but I like what he brings to the table at age 19.

The only concern is that he is characterized as "slow." Maybe that does not matter in a pf. We sure are going to have alot to talk about for a month.

 

[Mainstreet]

The only concern is that he is characterized as "slow." Maybe that does not matter in a pf. We sure are going to have alot to talk about for a month.

This appears to be a weak draft. I went with Ellenson because I see him becoming an offensive player at power forward. I like his size and his ability to handle the ball. Hopefully he can improve his defensive game with work.

We definitely will have a lot to talk about.

 

[JCSunsfan]

BTW. No one has mentioned it yet, but that trade of Knight for the Laker pick. It doesn't quite look as bad as it once did.

Can you imagine if we still held that pick? All the anguish and complaints about bad luck, and now the Lakers are going to be good and all we are going to get is like a 13 pick etc. etc.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Nor is Booker in the same class with Drexler. They took Sam Bowie instead. People thought Jordan would be good but no one knew he would be that good. No one.

it doesn't matter... they KNEW he'd be good. There weren't major question marks about his game/age/athleticism like there are Heild. Thus taking a risk on a guy who's a RISK where you already have a very promising guy at the position isn't the same.

Besides, you're talking about the greatest player of all time. That alone means the conversation has very little merit. Same with bringing up the Nash/Curry examples. I don't believe you draft based on the exception to the rule philosophy.

 

[Cheesebeef]

BTW. No one has mentioned it yet, but that trade of Knight for the Laker pick. It doesn't quite look as bad as it once did.

Can you imagine if we still held that pick? All the anguish and complaints about bad luck, and now the Lakers are going to be good and all we are going to get is like a 13 pick etc. etc.

uh... no. Why are the Lakers going to be good? They've still yet to prove they can add any FA worth squat, they were the second to worst team in the league last year and adding a rookie with a lot of potential isn't going to move the needle in one year. They're going to be terrible again next year and the pick won't have any protection.

That was a bad trade at the time and remains so. Why do you think the Lakers are going to be good? Even with Simmons or Ingraham, those guys are really nice building blocks, but they ain't gonna turn that ish-show around in one year.

 

[Mainstreet]

BTW. No one has mentioned it yet, but that trade of Knight for the Laker pick. It doesn't quite look as bad as it once did.

Can you imagine if we still held that pick? All the anguish and complaints about bad luck, and now the Lakers are going to be good and all we are going to get is like a 13 pick etc. etc.

I'd rather have the draft pick rather than Knight with the current Suns roster. Hopefully a trade makes me feel better about it.

I still think trading the Lakers pick was a knee jerk reaction by McDonough triggered by Dragic spouting off.

 

[sunsfan88]

BTW. No one has mentioned it yet, but that trade of Knight for the Laker pick. It doesn't quite look as bad as it once did.

Can you imagine if we still held that pick? All the anguish and complaints about bad luck, and now the Lakers are going to be good and all we are going to get is like a 13 pick etc. etc.

How are the Lakers going to be so good now? Did LeBron announce he's taking his talents to Hollywood? Or do you think them maxing out the players of Harrison Barnes and Festus Eseli's caliber is gonna make them good again? The biggest FA they may get is gonna be DeMar freaking DeRozan

The Lakers are still not gonna be a playoff team anytime soon. And that pick becomes unprotected next season. I will still take a top 10 pick over garage Knight. Do you think any team in the league would trade their top 10 pick for Brandon Knight? Hell no.

 

[leclerc]

It's a tough choice if Hield proves to be great in workouts because there is no Sam Bowie at #4. I'm not set on any particular player but Ellenson sounds nice and I'm not aware of good FA or trade options to get a starter caliber PF. I hope they work out all the top PFs. I'm open for a look at Jaylen Brown (SF) and Dunn (PG) because the only positions we've sort of locked down is SG and C.

My point is maybe go for need (3/5) instead of BPA (5/5) this year, at least at #4.

Maker or Uli at #13 or another PF if one we like drops.

 

[JCSunsfan]

How are the Lakers going to be so good now? Did LeBron announce he's taking his talents to Hollywood? Or do you think them maxing out the players of Harrison Barnes and Festus Eseli's caliber is gonna make them good again? The biggest FA they may get is gonna be DeMar freaking DeRozan

The Lakers are still not gonna be a playoff team anytime soon. And that pick becomes unprotected next season. I will still take a top 10 pick over garage Knight. Do you think any team in the league would trade their top 10 pick for Brandon Knight? Hell no.

I am not saying it, I am just saying that that would be the paranoia thinking associated with not getting the pick. Sorry. Not communicating very clearly. Nevermind. Just move along.

 

[GatorAZ]

I'd rather have the draft pick rather than Knight with the current Suns roster. Hopefully a trade makes me feel better about it.

I still think trading the Lakers pick was a knee jerk reaction by McDonough triggered by Dragic spouting off.

Yeah they should've just stopped after the Dragic and IT trade. Goran's public comments had to irk McD and Sarver.

 

[Mainstreet]

Yeah they should've just stopped after the Dragic and IT trade. Goran's public comments had to irk McD and Sarver.

I'm hoping this was a early growing pain for McDonough as a GM and he will not repeat this type of a mistake again.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I'm hoping this was a early growing pain for McDonough as a GM and he will not repeat this type of a mistake again.

Every GM makes mistakes. They just need to avoid really bigs ones, and be willing to cut their losses rather than being stubborn and continuing with a bad idea.

 

[sunsfan88]

Every GM makes mistakes. They just need to avoid really bigs ones, and be willing to cut their losses rather than being stubborn and continuing with a bad idea.

Agreed. It's gonna suck having to deal Knight for an asset that isn't as good as the Lakers pick but if trading him is what's needed for the Suns to move forward in the rebuilding process then you have to bite the bullet and do it. Similar to signing and drafting PGs when already having two good ones and then having to bite the bullet and dealing two of them away.

 

[overseascardfan]

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I pick Ellenson at #4. Complete offensive game: handle the ball, jump shot, post game, can pass and rebound.

Not really known as a defender but with Len & Chandler at C he will have help. He would actually be a good fit as a stretch 4 because it would improve the spacing for Chandler & Len in the post and gives the PG another target on the kick out or pick and roll.

 

[JCSunsfan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5FtlD4Pia0



I pick Ellenson at #4. Complete offensive game: handle the ball, jump shot, post game, can pass and rebound.



Not really known as a defender but with Len & Chandler at C he will have help. He would actually be a good fit as a stretch 4 because it would improve the spacing for Chandler & Len in the post and gives the PG another target on the kick out or pick and roll.

Ok. Is Ellenson any better than Leuer or Len? I am not being sarcastic.