2011 Draft Thread

[Covert Rain]

I agree with Daren's contention that PG is probably the least important position to have your superstar at. However, Utah didn't come up short because they had Stockton and Phoenix didn't come up short because they had KJ, it was because Chicago had a transcendent player. The same has been true throughout the Lakers recent championship run(s). And the Celtics get referred to as the big 3 but Rondo may well have been the most important player on that team.

Steve

Exactly. I am not saying it's not possible with a dominate PG. Clearly the Lakers and Detroit had dominate players at that positions 20 years ago. Simply saying that in the most recent 20 years there have been plenty of dominate PG on teams who resulted in zero titles. Obviously, other factors played roles.

However, slinslin's contention is that we would be better off with a dominate PG in Williams than having a legit big man. My contention is that you build with legit big men because they are harder to find. You don't don't toss aside a legit big man for a dominant PG IMO.

Now if that big man is a bench warmer (like Lopez) or some other big stiff...it's a no brainer.

 

[Mainstreet]

I agree with Daren's contention that PG is probably the least important position to have your superstar at. However, Utah didn't come up short because they had Stockton and Phoenix didn't come up short because they had KJ, it was because Chicago had a transcendent player. The same has been true throughout the Lakers recent championship run(s). And the Celtics get referred to as the big 3 but Rondo may well have been the most important player on that team.

Steve

I disagree. IMO, the best positions to have a superstar are at center, PF or PG in that order. I agree with JCSunsfan on this issue... "Championships can be won in different ways. Making such generalizations does not seem accurate." Perhaps it is just easier to get superstars at SF and SG.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I disagree. IMO, the best positions to have a superstar are at center, PF or PG in that order. I agree with JCSunsfan on this issue... "Championships can be won in different ways. Making such generalizations does not seem accurate." Perhaps it is just easier to get superstars at SF and SG.

I have to tell you, that's not much of a disagreement. I certainly wouldn't have a problem if you wanted to put shooting guard at the bottom of the importance list but it's probably for the same reason point guard is at or near the bottom.

The gap between the best point guard and the 10th best point guard is typically much, much less than the gap between the best center and the 10th best center. The same is true at power forward and to a lesser degree at the wing spot but it gets a little blurry when you get to the 2 guard.

I completely agree with the idea that there is more than one way to win a championship. If you read through the rest of my post you saw that I also don't support the idea that you CAN'T build around a top notch point guard.

Steve

 

[Mainstreet]

I have to tell you, that's not much of a disagreement. I certainly wouldn't have a problem if you wanted to put shooting guard at the bottom of the importance list but it's probably for the same reason point guard is at or near the bottom.

The gap between the best point guard and the 10th best point guard is typically much, much less than the gap between the best center and the 10th best center. The same is true at power forward and to a lesser degree at the wing spot but it gets a little blurry when you get to the 2 guard.

I completely agree with the idea that there is more than one way to win a championship. If you read through the rest of my post you saw that I also don't support the idea that you CAN'T build around a top notch point guard.

Steve

Yes, a superstar center is the rarest commodity and then next is PF. I won't quibble about the rest.

Also I want to apologize about the comment I made awhile back when I questioned your basketball acumen. It was childish on my part. I guess I just felt that my basketball acumen was under attack so I questioned yours. So please forgive me as I respect your posts as very insightful.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Also I want to apologize about the comment I made awhile back when I questioned your basketball acumen. It was childish on my part. I guess I just felt that my basketball acumen was under attack so I questioned yours. So please forgive me as I respect your posts as very insightful.

Accepted. I try to avoid taking shots at people so I was surprised by your reaction but I guess I didn't do a good enough job of making it clear that it wasn't aimed at you.

Steve

 

[BC867]

I disagree. IMO, the best positions to have a superstar are at center, PF or PG in that order. I agree with JCSunsfan on this issue... "Championships can be won in different ways. Making such generalizations does not seem accurate." Perhaps it is just easier to get superstars at SF and SG.

Each point you've made is a good one. Especially when you factor in the things that don't show in a box score, particularly defense.

Role players are an important factor. Michael had three rotating role-playing Centers as well as his Franchise, Jr. in Scotty, amazing rebounder in Rodman and a pure shooter at the "2". And some superior defenders. Unique, but ultra-successful.

Kobe has two solid rotating Centers and a great Power Forward. We'll see if it takes them all the way this year.

What will the secret ingredient be for the Suns going forward? Gortat and a solid backup at C. Frye playing defense and rebounding at the "4" while playing offense starting from 23 feet from the basket.

A good tandem at PG feeding good Wings as well.

And three of the positions playing very good defense with decent defense from the other two.

I'm hoping for good things next year. It isn't beyond the realm of possibility.

 

[slinslin]

Shooting guard seems to be the hardest position to fill other than center right now. Maybe even harder to fill?

Point Guard might have become the easiest position to fill. In every draft as of late the PG position seems deep.
Half of the big names in this years draft are PGs again Walker, Knight, Irving and Fredette.

The PF position is also getting easier and easier to fill unless you are looking for a true 6'11-7' PF.

 

[slinslin]

1. Cleveland - Derrick Williams SF/PF (Michael Beasley)
Cleveland has to pick between Williams, Barnes and Irving. Since PG is deep and Cleveland picks again at #8 they can get a Knight or Walker there or pick Burks if they just go on with Baron Davis.

2. Minnesota - Kyrie Irving PG - (Terelle Brandon)
Minnesota also could go and pick Enes Kanter here if they are sure that Ricky Rubio will play for them next season.

3. Washington - Harrison Barnes G/F - (Steve Smith/Allan Houston/Paul Pierce/Joe Johnson)
Washington's weakest position is small forward. They are well set with Wall, Crawford, McGee at the guard spots and center spot. Blatche is a head case and could be replaced but Harrison Barnes is the best player available. It is hard to find a NBA comparison for Barnes. He is a big shooting guard or small forward. Very good shooter but his ball handling is not there yet and his athleticism is average.

4. Toronto - Enes Kanter C/F - (DeMarcus Cousins, Al Horford)
6'11-7 big man that draws comparisons to DeMarcus Cousins and Al Horford, Calipari says he is as good or better than Cousins. Toronto needs to get away from playing Bargnani at center because he really is a SF.

5. Sacramento - Jan Veseley SF/PF (Andrei Kirilenko less defensive)
Sacramento could go with a PG but they have Evans and Thornton in the backcourt right now. Unless they want to move Evans to SF basically they should focus on their weakness which is the SF spot. Their frontcourt is rock solid with Thompson, Cousins and Dalembert.

6. Utah - Alec Burks SG (Eddie Jones)
The rarest commodity in this draft, SG, goes to Utah because Utah is sure nobody will take Fredette before they pick again at #12. Enes Kanter would not get past this pick I believe and the other Euros Vesley, Motiejunas, Valanciunas could go here as well. Utah has Okur, Favors, Jefferson and Millsap in the frontcourt though and Hayward at SF.

7. Detroit - Brandon Knight PG (Chauncey Billups/Jason Terry)
Detroit needs everything. The only bright spot on the roster is Greg Monroe. They really could use a PG but they have Ben Gordon, Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum also. This pick is hard to predict if they could replace Hamilton or Prince they would do that as well I'd guess. Kemba Walker could be the next Ben Gordon so would they pick him? Pistons could also go with one of the Euros.

8. Cleveland - Kemba Walker PG (Jason Terry/Tim Hardaway/Ben Gordon)
Cleveland could really use Burks here but a PG for the future that replaces Baron Davis is not bad either. They have a frontcourt of Varejao, Hickson and Williams.

9. Milwaukee - Perry Jones PF (Amare Stoudemire/Chris Bosh/Anthony Randolph)
Milwaukee has to find players to surround Bogut and Jennings. Shooting guards are not available in the lottery and MBah-Moute is a decent role player at SF so they will probably be arguing between Jones, Motiejunas and Valanciunas unless Burks was there.

10. Charlotte - Jonas Valanciunas C (Andris Biedrins/Joakim Noah)
Their backcourt is set with Augustin and Henderson. At PF they got Tyrus Thomas. They need a replacement for Gerald Wallace who they traded or Kwame Brown. If they don't go with the Euro here Leonard or Terrence Jones would make sense I would think.

11. Golden State - Kawhi Leonard SF (Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala with muss less athleticism)
Another team that doesn't have any real holes. Backcourt is set, PF is set. Replacing Dorrell Wright at SF or Andris Biedrins makes the most sense but not as much as trading this pick for a veteran.

12. Utah - Jimmer Fredette PG (Stephen Curry/Eddie House)
Anything but this pick would shock me.

13. Phoenix - Donatas Motiejunas PF (Andrea Bargnani/Channing Frye)
Slim pickings for us. I don't rate him high but the options are barely there we can only hope that a team ahead of us who doesn't have that kind of player yet prefers a perimeter oriented soft PF with potential over a potential headcase like Perry Jones. I am thinking Milwaukee next to Bogut.

14. Houston - Terrence Jones SF (Marvin Williams but smaller)
Houston is another team that should look at trading their pick. A center is what they need the most but they won't get one here. Lowry and Martin in the backcourt is set. At PF they have Scola, Hill and Patterson. At SF Buddinger and Terrence Williams and at center Ming/Thabeet. They have too many prospects as it is.

Kanter, Valanciunas, Motiejunas those are 3 7-Footer Euros that could go anywhere... top 3, top 5, top10, top 14.. I am just pretty sure that Kanter won't get past Toronto. He is the best and legit traditional center prospect in the draft.



I don't think I have to mention that I would much rather see Perry Jones, Brandon Knight, Alec Burks, Kemba Walker or whoever drop to us than soft Donatas Motiejunas who possibly has ZARKO/SKITA/ANDREA written all over him

PG - 4 (Irving, Knight, Walker, Fredette)
SG - 1.5 (Burks, Barnes)
SF - 5 (Williams, Barnes, Veseley, Leonard, Jones)
PF - 3 (Jones, Motiejunas, Kanter, Williams)
C - 2 (Kanter, Valanciunas)

There will be lots of Power Forwards outside the lottery with Tristan Thompson, Marcus Morris, Markieff Morris, John Henson, Mirotic, Farried, Tyler....

 

[leclerc]

Please not another soft player... anyhow I hope Gentry really plays rookies next year cause that's the only way to develop them.

Two months+ until the draft. Gonna be a long summer and I'm not watching other teams battle in the playoffs.

 

[leclerc]

Trade Nash & Pietrus to Toronto for Ed Davis and a future 1st rd pick (not this years) Then trade Lopez to Indiana for their 1st rd pick.

Get Burks with our own pick and Nolan Smith with Indiana's.

Smith, Brooks/Dowdell
Burks, Dudley
Hill, Childress
Davis, Frye
Gortat, Siler

^^^A lottery team for maybe 2 seasons but that lineup would be a contender afterwards imo. We retain a vet who is a top defender in Hill and get Burks who has incredible potential. Nolan Smith imo will be Russel Westbrook with a lil less athleticism. Ed Davis can be the PF we groom for the future.

Score. Where do I sign?

I doubt Burks will drop though.

 

[Mainstreet]

Shooting guard seems to be the hardest position to fill other than center right now. Maybe even harder to fill?

Point Guard might have become the easiest position to fill. In every draft as of late the PG position seems deep.
Half of the big names in this years draft are PGs again Walker, Knight, Irving and Fredette.

The PF position is also getting easier and easier to fill unless you are looking for a true 6'11-7' PF.

I think the distinction I am making is being able to get a "superstar" player, or certainly an All-Star, at different positions. I think superstar SGs and SFs are the easiest positions to fill. I'm not saying it is easy, but IMO it is easier than getting a superstar at center, PF and PG. Certainly PGs are available in every draft but getting a superstar PG is another matter. To some degree I think SG and SF have mingled into the same position as NBA teams seek taller SGs.

 

[slinslin]

Tell me how many superstar SGs have there been in the league the last 20 years and how many PGs?

I would think at least twice as many PGs as SGs..

Superstar SGs? Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Penny Hardaway, Clyde Drexler

Superstar PGs? John Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Kevin Johnson, Gary Payton, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, John Wall (soon to be)

Allen Iverson and Monta Ellis are SGs but they have the body of a PG.
Magic Johnson was a PG in a forwards body.

If we included worse players
SG - Reggie Miller, Ray Allen , Vince Carter, Brandon Roy, Joe Johnson, Manu Ginobili, Allan Houston, Mitch Richmond
PG - Mark Price, Baron Davis, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook, Stephon Marbury, Tim Hardaway, Stephen Curry, Chauncey Billups, Brandon Jennings, Mo Williams...


Shooting guard is probably the hardest position to fill. And teams that had the position filled instead of PG often had more success than teams with superstar PGs. Kobe and MJ obviously.

Teams that had both position filled (PG/SG) often underachieved because having two dominant guards usually makes both less effective.

Center and Shooting Guard are definately the hardest positions to fill.

Alec Burks is currently the only SG prospect that draftexpress has in the first round unless you wanna accept 6'2 Josh Selby as a SG with one of the last picks in the first round.
nbadraft.net only has Burks in the first round and acknowedlge that maybe Tyler Honeycut or Jordan Hamilton who are SF prospects could play some shooting guard.

At the same time nbadraft.net has 6 PGs in the first round, 4 in the lottery. Draftexpress also has 6 PGs in the first round and 3 of them in the lottery.

 

[Mainstreet]

Tell me how many superstar SGs have there been in the league the last 20 years and how many PGs?

I would think at least twice as many PGs as SGs..

I'm not going to go through the stats for the last 20 years, but I think you will find that taller SGs have often played a lot of SF and vice versa. Pure shooters that play SG are not that hard to find in the NBA. Hence when you find a tall talented player that can play SG, why not move him to SF and replace him with a pure shooter at SG, like a Paxson or a Kerr. The point I'm trying to make is that taller talented SGs and SFs are often interchangeable. IMO, SG and SF is is almost a hybrid position anymore.

 

[slinslin]

2011 Draft / 2012 Draft

I made my own logical adjustments there when I see a prospect listed at 6'8 Center prospect I am going to go ahead and make the assumption that he will be a PF in the NBA.
Same thing when I see 6'3 shooting or combo guards.

2012 list has holes because some players are listed in both drafts

Draftexpress
PG 7 // 8 = 15
SG 2 // 2 = 4
SF 7 // 8 = 15
PF 11 // 8 = 19
C 3 // 2 = 5

The list of nbadraft.net is really annoying because they have unrealistic positions like Alec Burks PG/SG or John Henson and Perry Jones as a SF/PF but anyway using my own judgement

nbadraft.net
PG 6 // 6 = 12
SG 1 // 7* = 8
SF 8 // 10 = 18
PF 13 // 5 = 18
C 2 // 2 = 4

* They have a bunch of mediocre SGs at the end of the first round in 2012. 5 of the last 8 first round picks are SGs on their board.
The best SG prospect on their board is Jeremy Lamb of UConn (11ppg) and Terrence Ross (8ppg)

Shooting guard is such a hard position to fill with a good player because even when you see SG prospects on the board half of the time they are undersized or declared G/F prospects who lack ballhandling skills.

 

[slinslin]

I'm not going to go through the stats for the last 20 years, but I think you will find that taller SGs have often played a lot of SF and vice versa. Pure shooters that play SG are not that hard to find in the NBA. Hence when you find a tall talented player that can play SG, why not move him to SF and replace him with a pure shooter at SG, like a Paxson or a Kerr. The point I'm trying to make is that taller talented SGs and SFs are often interchangeable. IMO, SG and SF is is almost a hybrid position anymore.

SG and SF aren't interchangeable most of the time because a good guard needs to have ball handling skills that small forwards usually do not have.

If you want your SG to do nothing but defend and shoot well... ok..

Steve Kerr and John Paxson both played most of their minutes at the PG spot for the Bulls if I am not mistaken.

If I had the choice between superstar PG and superstar SG I would ALWAYS take the SG. Shooting guards have a potentially higher impact because theoretically they can be faciliators as well and do more thing because of the physical advantage that players like Jordan, Kobe, Wade or Lebron have over players like Chris Paul, Steve Nash etc..

Kobe + Fisher > Nash + Bell
Jordan + Kerr > Stockton + Hornacek

 

[sunsfan88]

Please man if Motejunas is our only option at #14, I would much rather just trade #14 pick & Lopez to the Cavs for JJ Hickson.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Please man if Motejunas is our only option at #14, I would much rather just trade #14 pick & Lopez to the Cavs for JJ Hickson.

You come up with an awful lot of trades involving Robin Lopez. I suggest you read message boards from across the NBA. One thing you will notice (if you do so) is that nobody, and I do mean NOBODY, is coming up with ways to acquire Robin Lopez.

The reason you want to trade him is the very same reason nobody else wants him. He sucks, plain and simple. Sure, he might bounce back from his injury and eventually learn to play basketball but he's certainly not worth spending anything to get him. Unless you think Hickson is available for a bottom of the lottery pick, your suggested trade is unrealistic. If he is available for a bottom of the lottery pick than adding Lopez to the deal probably does more harm than good.

Steve

 

[sunsfan88]

Lopez is 7'0, 250lbs and 22 years old. 22 that is.

He could average 0 pts and 0 rebounds a game in 10+ minutes but a team that is rebuilding would trade for him if they need a center. Fact is he has potential and he has displayed it every now and then. Obviously he's not playin well this year but it could be because of the transition from playin with Amare to being the only true big man on the court.

The Cavs could probably get a better PF since they have 2 of the first 5 picks in the upcoming draft. So if they can improve another position, they might do it. Also a late lottery pick isn't as bad you think. The player just may take a lot of time to develop.

 

[Chaplin]

Lopez is 7'0, 250lbs and 22 years old. 22 that is.

He could average 0 pts and 0 rebounds a game in 10+ minutes but a team that is rebuilding would trade for him if they need a center. Fact is he has potential and he has displayed it every now and then. Obviously he's not playin well this year but it could be because of the transition from playin with Amare to being the only true big man on the court.

Isn't that the Phoenix Suns? If he's such a great asset to a rebuilding team, why would we want to get rid of him?

 

[sunsfan88]

Because we don't need a center...we already got Gortat who is way more developed.

 

[Mainstreet]

You come up with an awful lot of trades involving Robin Lopez. I suggest you read message boards from across the NBA. One thing you will notice (if you do so) is that nobody, and I do mean NOBODY, is coming up with ways to acquire Robin Lopez.

The reason you want to trade him is the very same reason nobody else wants him. He sucks, plain and simple. Sure, he might bounce back from his injury and eventually learn to play basketball but he's certainly not worth spending anything to get him. Unless you think Hickson is available for a bottom of the lottery pick, your suggested trade is unrealistic. If he is available for a bottom of the lottery pick than adding Lopez to the deal probably does more harm than good.

Steve

If the Suns decide to keep Lopez for a few more seasons on a reasonable contract, I think he will develop into an athletic role playing center. He may not be the star the Suns FO envisioned but I think he will develop into a solid player. It is just too early to give up on a 23 year old center who has not put the pieces together. IMO, his mind and body are not yet synchronized. As I view it, the Suns never viewed Robin as a project center which he is. Many centers just develop late.

Now if the Suns can get something of value for him, that is another matter.

 

[Chaplin]

Because we don't need a center...we already got Gortat who is way more developed.

What? We don't need a center? You do know there is such a thing called a bench, and backups are needed for a bench. We get rid of Lopez, which I don't have a problem with, we WILL have to replace him. And don't say Siler because he's worse than Robin ever was.

You can't in one breath say get rid of Lopez because we already have Gortat, and then in the next say that Gortat can't play as much as he has been because he'll get worn down. You can't have it both ways.

 

[sunsfan88]

You come up with an awful lot of trades involving Robin Lopez. I suggest you read message boards from across the NBA. One thing you will notice (if you do so) is that nobody, and I do mean NOBODY, is coming up with ways to acquire Robin Lopez.

The reason you want to trade him is the very same reason nobody else wants him. He sucks, plain and simple. Sure, he might bounce back from his injury and eventually learn to play basketball but he's certainly not worth spending anything to get him. Unless you think Hickson is available for a bottom of the lottery pick, your suggested trade is unrealistic. If he is available for a bottom of the lottery pick than adding Lopez to the deal probably does more harm than good.

Steve

OK here's what I found:

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1101802

Most people have offered at least a mid first rd pick for him.

Oh and here is CAVS fans opinion on that trade I said.

That is pretty close to fair value for Hickson in my opinion but I would lean toward not accepting it. Hickson has really come alive over the second part of the season and he is one of the few people our front office considers to be part of our longterm plans. I've watched Lopez play quite a bit and he is nothing more than a quality backup C but he is still pretty young. I think our targets for the Phoenix pick would be Jon Henson or Alec Burks and I don't think either combination with Lopez is more valuable than Hickson for us. The value is close though and I think we would consider it.

If Cavs get Derrick Williams, then I that's probably a good trade.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1011068&start=1065

None of the Cavs fans claimed it to be "unrealistic" or unreasonable. So please stop thinking that I come up with trades right out of my ass.

 

[sunsfan88]

What? We don't need a center? You do know there is such a thing called a bench, and backups are needed for a bench. We get rid of Lopez, which I don't have a problem with, we WILL have to replace him. And don't say Siler because he's worse than Robin ever was.

You can't in one breath say get rid of Lopez because we already have Gortat, and then in the next say that Gortat can't play as much as he has been because he'll get worn down. You can't have it both ways.

Backup centers are a dime a dozen. If we get Hickson, then Frye would likely be coming off the bench.

Sign Chuck Hayes and him and Frye would be a decent backup front court. Especially since Frye has improved his defense and rebounding.

 

[Evil Ash]

Backup centers are a dime a dozen. If we get Hickson, then Frye would likely be coming off the bench.

Sign Chuck Hayes and him and Frye would be a decent backup front court. Especially since Frye has improved his defense and rebounding.

No they're not. The Center play in the league has gotten so bad its damn near laughable.

There are very few good centers left and the majority of those are in the back end of their careers. So those that even do show flashes and are tall enough are typically vastly overpaid.

Lopez has not been good this year at all minus a few flashes here and there. I have no problem trading him away if it gets us another big but realistically he won't. So we'll likely have him on the last year of his deal on his rookie salary. If he produces good, if not its no big deal really.

I don't want to go through another Earl Barron situation again.