Well, if the success of your company depends on your ability to project to an accuracy of 3% two years down the road, you're in trouble. There are way too many variables.
How much is Cleveland going to spend on coaching? Front-office personnel? What will they get from local TV rights, or sponsorships, or concessions sales?
Or, ah, here's a good one: What will they earn from a deep playoff run, and the possible increased value of a championship? Does the right Irving trade make a deep playoff run more likely?
This is an organization that is prepared to spend $70+ million next season on nothing! A difference of $3 million in the cap is trivial.
I haven't done any such thing. I've said that it would depend on whether they believe in his on-court value for this season. I also said -- maybe you missed it -- that I don't know whether they do or not.
Dragic doesn't have 150,000 miles on him. But let's refine your scenario:
My car isn't working. I really want to get across the country and my options are limited. There's an opportunity on the other side of the country that may never be there again, and it's important to me. I can buy a car that I know is overpriced, but I can take a loan with a favorable interest rate, and this is the car that gives me the best chance to get across the country, right now, to pursue this priceless opportunity.
You're damn right I buy that car.