2017-2018 Draft Prospects watch.

[pokerface]

Hmm... not sure where some of that info from. Ayton rebounded better in college and I think he would have done even better had he not been stuck defending on the outside so often. Arizona played him out of position at the 4 because their other big had no hope of playing away from the rim. Also, I know for sure they never played each other in college and given that Ayton wen to HS here in Arizona and Bamba was in the North East... I suspect they've never played each other before... except maybe the McDonalds All American game.



Tyson Chandler is an All-Star who won DPOY... when we're talking about "floors" I think every single player in the draft has a lower floor than that. Bamba's floor is Bizmack Biyombo. A freakishly long guy with little skill and a bad motor.

Tankathon has Bamba at 12.6 versus 12.4 for Ayton in rebounding. So they are virtually a dead heat according to them.

As far as them going head to head it was an Bamba interview he said those things. I can't verify it.

 

[Phrazbit]

Tankathon has Bamba at 12.6 versus 12.4 for Ayton in rebounding. So they are virtually a dead heat according to them.

As far as them going head to head it was an Bamba interview he said those things. I can't verify it.

Weird. Was it someone else talking about a Bamba interview or did you see/read it yourself? It is so obviously incorrect (especially with college thrown in) that I can't imagine he'd say it.

I'm guessing the rebounding is using per 36 or something. Either way, Ayton put up his rebounding stats despite often being stuck on the outside on defense, I think he will certainly be the superior rebounder, especially early in their careers. Ayton's freakishly strong and has really good fundamentals on the glass, Bamba's wingspan advantage won't help much on the glass if he doesn't learn how to position better than he did in college.

 

[leclerc]

For the record I have not seen much of Bamba. Just that a lot of the things mentioned sounded like Len's scouting report. Plus missing on a big man prospect with supposedly questionable motor would be the worst.

 

[pokerface]

Weird. Was it someone else talking about a Bamba interview or did you see/read it yourself? It is so obviously incorrect (especially with college thrown in) that I can't imagine he'd say it.

I'm guessing the rebounding is using per 36 or something. Either way, Ayton put up his rebounding stats despite often being stuck on the outside on defense, I think he will certainly be the superior rebounder, especially early in their careers. Ayton's freakishly strong and has really good fundamentals on the glass, Bamba's wingspan advantage won't help much on the glass if he doesn't learn how to position better than he did in college.

https://www.hookem.com/2018/03/28/bohls-mo-bamba-next-bill-russell/

"Asked about the Arizona big man who’s also being considered as the best lottery pick, Bamba said he beat Deandre Ayton’s teams three times in AAU or high school play."

 

[pokerface]

Here is an in depth balanced analysis of Bamba.

https://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/249620/Prospect-Report-Mohamed-Bamba-Of-Texas

 

[Mainstreet]

I don't play the lotto simulators much because I do not want any false hope. Anything can happen when it is done for real. My comfort is the Suns can draft no later than #4. They should be able to get a good player there. Anything better is icing on the cake.

However, I do want Ayton!

 

[Hoop Head]

What worries me about Bamba and his motor is it's rare for a player with a bad motor to exert themselves on the defensive end and make much of an impact. Usually players only push themselves offensively, not defensively, so he'd be a bit of an anomaly if he was a good defender who didn't contribute much if anything offensively. If he's not getting fed offensively, what hope is there for him to get his motor going? When watching Amare back in the day he'd have off games but after he was fed the ball inside a few times he'd get started and you'd forget that he wasn't doing much in the first quarter. When he got going offensively he'd even try harder on defense. Amare was a special player though and I doubt Bamba ever reaches close to his level. Worst case, he's another non-factor and steals minutes from others in the frontcourt where we already have other projects. We really don't need another project big, we would probably be best to shed one of our projects now, not add another.

 

[Covert Rain]

I don't play the lotto simulators much because I do not want any false hope. Anything can happen when it is done for real. My comfort is the Suns can draft no later than #4. They should be able to get a good player there. Anything better is icing on the cake.

However, I do want Ayton!

They better get a top 3 because odds are they will. If they get #4 I am going to feel like they were totally screwed....again.

 

[Mainstreet]

They better get a top 3 because odds are they will. If they get #4 I am going to feel like they were totally screwed....again.

Actually the highest odds are the Suns draft #4. No guarantees.

They do have the best odds of getting the #1 pick though.

Here is a chart.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

 

[Covert Rain]

Actually the highest odds are the Suns draft #4. No guarantees.

They do have the best odds of getting the #1 pick though.

Here is a chart.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

The odds for picks 1-4 are cumulative (notice they equal 100%). They have higher odds of getting one of the first three.

If the Suns don’t get picks 1-3 they are guaranteed the 4th which would be 100% not 35.8%.

 

[Chaplin]

All of the three worst teams hold the best odds of getting #4.

 

[Mainstreet]

The odds for picks 1-4 are cumulative (notice they equal 100%). They have higher odds of getting one of the first three.

I know but if one looks at the individual odds for each slot, #4 is the most probable.

Looking at the cumulative odds brings the most comfort.

Running the lotto simulator can show how arbitrary it can be.

 

[Chaplin]

I know but if one looks at the individual odds for each slot, #4 is the most probable.

Memphis says the exact same thing--their odds at getting #4 are the best as well before the lottery happens. Once the #1 is picked, their (and our) odds change if they weren't chosen #1.

 

[hsandhu]

That's what I'm thinking...exactly. Worst case scenario is Bamba is a defending rebounding madman. Len isn't known for that or anything else even all these years later. Plus I think too Bamba has more offense in him than people suspect.

Still, there are other players that are more polished and proven in #4 pick range we could take if fans don't want to wait on results.

I'm fine with bamba at 4. He has a huge ceiling, as the espn/draftexpress guys have stated.

The big risk is his lack of weight, he would have to get stronger , and that will take time

Like you said, fans will get frustrated because he will take same time, I'm fine with that if he can reach his ceiling.

A 9'6 standing reach is insane, has a nice shooting stroke as well. I'm not sure where the idea developed he can't become a very good offensive player.

Imagine if he becomes a knockdown shooter with his length, he can shoot over anybody. Imagine if gober t was a knockdown shooter, and wasn't slow and plodding but fluid?

 

[Covert Rain]

I know but if one looks at the individual odds for each slot, #4 is the most probable.

Looking at the cumulative odds brings the most comfort.

Running the lotto simulator can show how arbitrary it can be.

The odds are not for individual slots. They are cumulative odds looking at all 4 slots at the same time. As teams get one of the first 3 picks the odds change as they no longer have the same odds on those charts for the remaining lottery picks. So getting 1, 2 or 3 is more likely than getting #4 overall.

 

[Mainstreet]

The odds for picks 1-4 are cumulative (notice they equal 100%). They have higher odds of getting one of the first three.

If the Suns don’t get picks 1-3 they are guaranteed the 4th which would be 100% not 35.8%.

Memphis says the exact same thing--their odds at getting #4 are the best as well before the lottery happens. Once the #1 is picked, their (and our) odds change if they weren't chosen #1.

One thing I am not going to debate is lottery odds. I will leave this to math experts.

I understand the Suns have a 64.2% of getting a top 3 pick and a 25% of the top pick in the first draw.

 

[Covert Rain]

One thing I am not going to debate is lottery odds. I will leave this to math experts.

I understand the Suns have a 64.2% of getting a top 3 pick and a 25% of the top pick in the first draw.

Right what the charts don’t cover is that the odds change if your team is a lottery team and another lottery team is now off the board for picks 2 and 3.

Despite all that? There is still crazy &$& that can happen. This is the last year it’s like this and I just want the Suns to finally get a break and get the number one. I don’t even care if they trade down a spot or two if they think their guy will be there.

That probably means they also get something for the future in return.

 

[pokerface]

I'm fine with bamba at 4. He has a huge ceiling, as the espn/draftexpress guys have stated.

The big risk is his lack of weight, he would have to get stronger , and that will take time

Like you said, fans will get frustrated because he will take same time, I'm fine with that if he can reach his ceiling.

A 9'6 standing reach is insane, has a nice shooting stroke as well. I'm not sure where the idea developed he can't become a very good offensive player.

Imagine if he becomes a knockdown shooter with his length, he can shoot over anybody. Imagine if gober t was a knockdown shooter, and wasn't slow and plodding but fluid?

If we get #4 I'd be happy with Young or Bamba. They both fill a need and they both have high ceilings. Young is a much safer pick but Bamba fills a bigger need IMO. His rebounding could feed Booker/Warren and his defense is much needed. Plus too, part of me would be more excited to have Bamba. The suns never had that kind of defensive presence in my memory .

 

[Phrazbit]

I'm fine with bamba at 4. He has a huge ceiling, as the espn/draftexpress guys have stated.

The big risk is his lack of weight, he would have to get stronger , and that will take time

Like you said, fans will get frustrated because he will take same time, I'm fine with that if he can reach his ceiling.

A 9'6 standing reach is insane, has a nice shooting stroke as well. I'm not sure where the idea developed he can't become a very good offensive player.

Imagine if he becomes a knockdown shooter with his length, he can shoot over anybody. Imagine if gober t was a knockdown shooter, and wasn't slow and plodding but fluid?

Bamba showed next to no offensive skill in college. He scored almost exclusively on being spoon fed around the rim. His "nice shooting stroke" translated to shooting under 30% outside the paint. He was a teeeeeeeerrible shooter. He also couldn't pass.

So, it is not out of the question that he becomes an offensive threat... because, you never know for sure with anyone, but there is no reason to think he will be a good offensive player thus far.

And the biggest concern isn't his weight, it's his lack of hustle/motor.

Pleeeeeeeeeease please please... to the posters who are thinking Bamba is anywhere near the tier of some of the guys viewed as a lock for the top 3, watch some full Texas games. You'll see that Bamba is not a sure thing. He is a guy with some good defensive peripherals and some freakish size but a lot of red flags in a lot of areas.

 

[Carolinacacti]

https://www.landof10.com/big-ten/2018-nba-draft-lottery-date-odds-projections-april-23
three weeks

 

[hsandhu]

Bamba showed next to no offensive skill in college. He scored almost exclusively on being spoon fed around the rim. His "nice shooting stroke" translated to shooting under 30% outside the paint. He was a teeeeeeeerrible shooter. He also couldn't pass.

So, it is not out of the question that he becomes an offensive threat... because, you never know for sure with anyone, but there is no reason to think he will be a good offensive player thus far.

And the biggest concern isn't his weight, it's his lack of hustle/motor.

Pleeeeeeeeeease please please... to the posters who are thinking Bamba is anywhere near the tier of some of the guys viewed as a lock for the top 3, watch some full Texas games. You'll see that Bamba is not a sure thing. He is a guy with some good defensive peripherals and some freakish size but a lot of red flags in a lot of areas.

I didn't say he was a great shooter, but has a good stroke which you could see the possibility of developing down the road as a good shooter.

capela is going to get a 100 million and all his offense is spoon fed by harden. And Capella has so far shown no potential of developing more on offense. The suns have someone in booker that can spoonfeed him a lot of easy points, and hope he develops more offense down the road.

It is a gamble, which if we are at 4 I'm ok taking. Btw, my number one choice at 4, im sure you'll also hate, still mpj, with the big if... If the best training staff in the league gives the go ahead.

 

[Phrazbit]

I didn't say he was a great shooter, but has a good stroke which you could see the possibility of developing down the road as a good shooter.

capela is going to get a 100 million and all his offense is spoon fed by harden. And Capella has so far shown no potential of developing more on offense. The suns have someone in booker that can spoonfeed him a lot of easy points, and hope he develops more offense down the road.

It is a gamble, which if we are at 4 I'm ok taking. Btw, my number one choice at 4, im sure you'll also hate, still mpj, with the big if... If the best training staff in the league gives the go ahead.

I'd take Young 4th. But I'd be more about Porter than Bamba for sure. Porter is risky but has superstar potential, I honestly don't see Bamba being anything more than an interior defensive big.

 

[hsandhu]

I'd take Young 4th. But I'd be more about Porter than Bamba for sure. Porter is risky but has superstar potential, I honestly don't see Bamba being anything more than an interior defensive big.

Cool, at least we agree on mpj, I'm not against young either, depending on his workouts.

porter is the perfect 6'11 stretch 4 for current nba. a year ago at this time was considered number 1 prospect by a lot, even ahead of ayton.

 

[devilalum]

Anyone run the ESPN lottery machine. I am not sure it is realistic. Ran it 20 times.

#1. 6 times
#2 1 time
#3 3 times
#4 10 times

The results always seems worse than the odds in the mocks. We seem to always get #4 50% of the time or more, while the odds of getting 1-3 for the Suns should be 64%. Oh well. Pointless. Just nervous activity. There is no reason the lottery shouldn't be done already.

Even the machine knows the Suns are gonna get hosed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[JCSunsfan]

Right what the charts don’t cover is that the odds change if your team is a lottery team and another lottery team is now off the board for picks 2 and 3.

Despite all that? There is still crazy &$& that can happen. This is the last year it’s like this and I just want the Suns to finally get a break and get the number one. I don’t even care if they trade down a spot or two if they think their guy will be there.

That probably means they also get something for the future in return.

I know Eric said that all of that is built into the odds. I am no stats expert buy I am not sure. I would think that your odds for the second and third picks change depending on who gets the first pick. For instance, if the #14 seed lucks out and gets the first pick, then there is a different number of numbers still in play than if the #2 seek gets it. But don't listen to me. Its not my area.