2018-19 Season | Point Guard Discussion

[Hoop Head]

I think you greatly overvalue Rubio. Even his best year wasn't much more than average and for most of his career, he's been the focal point of all blame from his local fans. I'd trade Bender and the Milwaukee pick for him and I'm not sure that's not an overpay. It's tough to match up in today's game when your point guard is such a non-threat and so far Rubio is shooting 27% from 3 and 39% from 2 (32% and 41% for his career).

I might overvalue him but TJ went from being undervalued to overvalued awfully quick. I know his 3pt shot plays a big role in that but I don't think he can sustain his 46% shooting.

Rubio started slow last year also. Prior to the All-Star break he averaged 12.3 ppg on 41% shooting and 32.4% from 3. After the All-Star break he averaged 15.0 ppg on 44% shooting and 41% from 3. He played 54 games before and 23 after. He seemed to turn it on in February though. He knows Kokoskov, works well with him, and had trouble fitting in there last year. Perhaps with Kokoskov gone that's the issue. Here's his monthly stats from last season...

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[JCSunsfan]

I might overvalue him but TJ went from being undervalued to overvalued awfully quick. I know his 3pt shot plays a big role in that but I don't think he can sustain his 46% shooting.

Rubio started slow last year also. Prior to the All-Star break he averaged 12.3 ppg on 41% shooting and 32.4% from 3. After the All-Star break he averaged 15.0 ppg on 44% shooting and 41% from 3. He played 54 games before and 23 after. He seemed to turn it on in February though. He knows Kokoskov, works well with him, and had trouble fitting in there last year. Perhaps with Kokoskov gone that's the issue. Here's his monthly stats from last season...

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OK. Here is the difference. Rubio had half a season of good shooting and an entire career of bad shooting FROM EVERYWHERE ON THE COURT. TJ has always been a good shooter around the basket and out to 20 feet or so. He just did not take many from the three. But extending the range for a player who is a good shooter at shorter ranges is a reasonable expectation.

Rubio would be a mistake. TJ would be a huge over pay.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I might overvalue him but TJ went from being undervalued to overvalued awfully quick. I know his 3pt shot plays a big role in that but I don't think he can sustain his 46% shooting.

Rubio started slow last year also. Prior to the All-Star break he averaged 12.3 ppg on 41% shooting and 32.4% from 3. After the All-Star break he averaged 15.0 ppg on 44% shooting and 41% from 3. He played 54 games before and 23 after. He seemed to turn it on in February though. He knows Kokoskov, works well with him, and had trouble fitting in there last year. Perhaps with Kokoskov gone that's the issue. Here's his monthly stats from last season...

I have no idea what influence Koko had with Rubio but whatever it was, there's no guarantee that as a Head Coach he'll have the same impact he had on a player as an Assistant. And yes he had a pretty good stretch but that wasn't the only good stretch of his career. I can't tell you how many times I've seen excited Wolves fans thinking he's finally turned the corner only to watch him quickly return to form.

By this stage of his career, I think it's a mistake to expect anything else from him. I put him in the TJ McConnell group, any team expecting consistent starter quality play from him will soon be looking for a new starting point guard. Had Rubio played college ball for a couple of years, his profile and reputation would be very similar to McConnell's IMO. They are both nice players to have on the roster but neither one of them should be a starter in today's game.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The problem is that last year was an anomoly year for Rubio. He has returned to his historic game. He is shooting .342 from the field and .274 from the three. It's a good thing Rubio has revealed that last year was all a sham before we traded for him.

Or maybe Rubio needs Igor.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Quite true and I had concerns about him because of it but as I recall, his shot trended upward the second half of his year in Kentucky. Anyway, there is always hope but let's face it, far more players disappoint. If they were unable to become decent shooters the first 20 years of their life, it's not likely to change IMO. I bought into the "teach them to shoot" idea for a little while when I read a Hinkie article about it but watching it play out in reality has been a completely different story IMO.

The first 20 years may have been very poor coaching. Again, we are 12 or 13 games into JJ’s second year. Everyone wrote off TJ’s ability to hit the three and look where he is now. Everyone has really short leashes (including me with Ayton). Patience is a virtue for a reason . . .

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

OK. Here is the difference. Rubio had half a season of good shooting and an entire career of bad shooting FROM EVERYWHERE ON THE COURT. TJ has always been a good shooter around the basket and out to 20 feet or so. He just did not take many from the three. But extending the range for a player who is a good shooter at shorter ranges is a reasonable expectation.

Rubio would be a mistake. TJ would be a huge over pay.

Lol. Totally revisionist history to serve your argument. TJ was just not a good 3 point shooter for his career. And no, extending range isn’t a gimme.

 

[AzStevenCal]

The first 20 years may have been very poor coaching. Again, we are 12 or 13 games into JJ’s second year. Everyone wrote off TJ’s ability to hit the three and look where he is now. Everyone has really short leashes (including me with Ayton). Patience is a virtue for a reason . . .

I'm certainly not in favor of giving up on Jackson. My point was that I had doubts about Josh and Fox as draft picks. Now that we have him, it would be incredibly foolish to just give up on him. You can't fault his motor and he does enough things well to warrant more time - a lot more time.

 

[GatorAZ]

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[JCSunsfan]

Lol. Totally revisionist history to serve your argument. TJ was just not a good 3 point shooter for his career. And no, extending range isn’t a gimme.

I thought I was just stating the obvious.
I don’t think I said it was a gimme. It is just more reasonable for players who shoot better from shorter distances to extend. They are better at developing repeatable motions. Tj refined his form, but he has the talent to do that. Rubio has not been a good shooter historically from any distance.

I did not say that TJ was a good three point shooter, I was making the point that he just rarely shot them. He shot 40% his second year (1.5 per game) and shot .222 last year (1.5 per game). I would try to make the case that he actually regressed, but his volume of threes shot was so low there is hardly enough sample size. The remarkable thing about this year is that he has pushed up his percentages and volume markedly.

So. My point is that TJ is better than Rubio and would be an overpay in trade. And while TJs 3 poibnt shooting numbers may drop off some, Rubio’s are more likely to do so IMO because Rubio is just plain not as good a shooter overall.

 

[Phrazbit]

TJ was a good shooter within 12-16 feet but I had no expectation of him becoming the 3pt shooter that he has been thusfar. TJ went from inept from 3 to a deadeye 3 point shooter in the blink of an eye. I hope Koko had a lot to do with it, because it would give me more faith in his future as a coach, but I don't think it is something that can be expected.

IMO, his low volume of threes was a sign of how uncomfortable he felt shooting them. He was bad at it, he knew he was bad at it and actively tried to avoid shooting them. Teams are already respecting his range and he's still burning them night after night.

He's like a totally different player.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So. Woj is reporting that John Wall is officially being marketed for trade. But not because they are trying to dump his future salary, but because the Wiz thinks he could actually net value in a trade.

It's a step in the right direction, but I would not consider trading for Wall unless we are giving up assets we don't really want to keep anyway.

 

[Hoop Head]

Any more than the Bucks pick and expiring deals like Ariza, Bender, and Daniels is too much for Wall. I'm a little worried the Suns will make a deal for him and include one of our young players.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Any more than the Bucks pick and expiring deals like Ariza, Bender, and Daniels is too much for Wall. I'm a little worried the Suns will make a deal for him and include one of our young players.

I think this is where we all are, except for those of us who do not want him AT ALL. I am ambivalent. There is no way his efficiency numbers demand that salary. I would not be disappointed at all if we took a pass on him.

 

[Mainstreet]

So. Woj is reporting that John Wall is officially being marketed for trade. But not because they are trying to dump his future salary, but because the Wiz thinks he could actually net value in a trade.

It's a step in the right direction, but I would not consider trading for Wall unless we are giving up assets we don't really want to keep anyway.

It's hard to see the Suns picking up Wall's salary.

I doubt if expiring contracts and the Bucks pick would do it. They would likely want a point guard included like Okobo.

 

[Hoop Head]

I think this is where we all are, except for those of us who do not want him AT ALL. I am ambivalent. There is no way his efficiency numbers demand that salary. I would not be disappointed at all if we took a pass on him.

I would prefer we pass, for sure, but if we're going to kick the tires and see what it takes then that is where I would draw the line. I wouldn't trade a single rotation player for him, not even Canaan. They can have scraps for all I care. That's also the only way I see it helping us, then we add Wall to our current team, for the most part, and we might improve a decent amount then.

 

[1Sun]

I think this is where we all are, except for those of us who do not want him AT ALL. I am ambivalent. There is no way his efficiency numbers demand that salary. I would not be disappointed at all if we took a pass on him.

In my opinion, the risks with Wall are pretty much the same as they were with Bledsoe, in terms of injury history, style of play, dependence on athleticism and attitude/approach. If we didn't want Bledsoe at 5 years, $70 million, I don't see any scenario where we would want Wall at almost three times the salary, even with our desperate circumstances at point guard.

 

[Chaplin]

I would prefer we pass, for sure, but if we're going to kick the tires and see what it takes then that is where I would draw the line. I wouldn't trade a single rotation player for him, not even Canaan. They can have scraps for all I care. That's also the only way I see it helping us, then we add Wall to our current team, for the most part, and we might improve a decent amount then.

You wouldn't trade Canaan for him? You completely lost credibility there.

 

[Mainstreet]

I would prefer we pass, for sure, but if we're going to kick the tires and see what it takes then that is where I would draw the line. I wouldn't trade a single rotation player for him, not even Canaan. They can have scraps for all I care. That's also the only way I see it helping us, then we add Wall to our current team, for the most part, and we might improve a decent amount then.

I'd prefer to trade Canaan over Okobo. Also Canaan is an expiring contract. He will likely be available next summer.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

They view wall as an attractive commodity. He’s also a favorite of the owner. They aren’t trading him for scraps. And for that reason I hope we aren’t a bidder.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I would prefer we pass, for sure, but if we're going to kick the tires and see what it takes then that is where I would draw the line. I wouldn't trade a single rotation player for him, not even Canaan. They can have scraps for all I care. That's also the only way I see it helping us, then we add Wall to our current team, for the most part, and we might improve a decent amount then.

We would have to trade some point guard. There is no room on this roster for Wall, Canaan, Okobo, and Melton. Trading Canaan would be fine with me, but this is a conversation that anyone but a Suns fan would laugh at.

 

[Errntknght]

Regardless of price I don't want Wall unless Igor is champing at the bit to get him.

 

[SirStefan32]

I've been on and off this bandwagon, but the common themes are that Wall has a history of injuries abd his contract os atrocious.I certainly wouldn't give up anything of value to get him, if I was going to take a risk at all.

 

[Chaplin]

His numbers are great, but Wall has played 82 games in only a single season in his career (2013-14). The following 3 years he played just under 80, so it isn't that bad. He's just coming off a season where he only played in half the games--and of course, recent memory is usually what everyone thinks is normal.

EDIT: He also played the entire lockout-shortened season in 2011-12. His history isn't TOO bad, he really only has had 2 seasons that he lost significant time: 2012-2013 and last year.

 

[AzStevenCal]

His numbers are great, but Wall has played 82 games in only a single season in his career (2013-14). The following 3 years he played just under 80, so it isn't that bad. He's just coming off a season where he only played in half the games--and of course, recent memory is usually what everyone thinks is normal.

EDIT: He also played the entire lockout-shortened season in 2011-12. His history isn't TOO bad, he really only has had 2 seasons that he lost significant time: 2012-2013 and last year.

I'm not at all concerned about the number of games he's missed, I'm worried about the wear and tear on the knees after 3 procedures (maybe more?). It's my understanding that arthritis is a real risk given his profession and the clean outs he's needed so that he can play through the pain. That doesn't bode well for a player that's under contract for this year and 5 more after that.

 

[95pro]

It’s more of the length of the contract for me than anything else