The post week 8 draft order projection from The Athletic:
Team | Projected Wins | Playoff Chance |
---|
1. Arizona | 4.3 | 0.2% |
2. Carolina -> Chicago | 4.6 | 0.6% |
3. Chicago | 4.9 | 1.1% |
4. NY Giants | 5.2 | 2.1% |
5. New England | 5.8 | 2.3% |
6. Washington | 6.1 | 4.1% |
7. Denver | 6.3 | 1.5% |
8. Las Vegas | 6.5 | 2.9% |
9. Green Bay | 7.2 | 24.2% |
10. Tennessee | 7.4 | 10.6% |
Once again, with the Cardinals in the top spot but Chicago in both of the other top-3 spots, it bodes well for the Cardinals to either get one of the top QBs, or reap a bounty of picks to a QB-needy team... but poorly for their chances of getting Marvin Harrison Jr. if they trade down, since the Bears would presumably take a QB and Harrison with their picks.
Would the Giants trade up to #1 for a QB after investing in Jones? Would Belichick trade up to #1 no matter how much the Patriots need a QB? For sure Washington would be happy to part with some of their newly acquired draft picks plus future #1's for the chance to get their QBOF.
The article accompanying the table notes that Tennessee's projected win total increased by 2 after their win over the Falcons with Will Levis at QB, suggesting that their model is accounting for Levis' increased ability to win games vs. Tannehill. With that in mind, the model presumably already accounts for Murray's expected impact on the Cardinals' win total - though perhaps there will be a significant update once Murray actually starts playing, if he plays well.