4th round pick - Logan Thomas QB VT

[GuernseyCard]

Yep, and he averaged 6.9 yards per run 7 or higher his last 3 seasons.

Career high for Thomas was 3.7 and that was 6 carries as a freshman. Thomas averaged 4 yards less per carry over his 4 year college career. Not remotely comparable as a runner.

Point taken, but I like how Thomas uses his body, Cam like, in the red zone.

 

[D-Dogg]

The people who complain seem to complain about him as if he's set to be the starter this year or next.

The people who are excited seem to be excited about his potential as to how he'll be two to three years down the road, and whether the big risk home run swing connects.

The people in the former don't seem to understand what the point of this pick is. The people in the latter get it, and their expectations aren't high at all. They are just dreaming about what happens if the lottery ticket hits.

The people in the former know that the lottery odds are huge and don't care to dream. The people in the latter know the lottery odds are huge but love to dream. Someone wins the lottery, eventually.

This is a lottery ticket with a big time, legendary payday. We bought it, it's done. Don't be shocked if it comes up naught. That's the odds. If it pays off, even on a sub-prize, that's a huge win and those that dreamed get some recompense. But it's a lottery ticket. There has been ZERO talk about this kid starting...only about his potential. Those arguing against it are claiming he can't, it won't, etc...and they might be right. But the ticket is purchased, and purchased by a couple of dudes who have good luck at the numbers. Let's see if it cashes in.

Nobody is wrong and right in this one. They closed their eyes and swung for the fences. they may connect, and if they do, holy ****. If they don't, a 4th rounder converts to a TE and probably is pretty good there. Even if the doesn't do that, so what, they flush a 4th rounder. Big effing whoop. This home run chop is WELL swung...let's see what happens.

It's been talked to death. We own the lottery ticket now...it either gets cashed or crumpled. I'm rooting for cashed, and don't care if it gets crumpled. It was perfectly purchased, with time to observe and evaluate prior to a pretty good QB draft next year while learning behind an entrenched starter for the time being.

I don't understand the headscratching on this one. Unless you want McCarron or mettenberger to sit the bench for two years to eventually be...well, John Skelton or so.

 

[Jetstream Green]

The people who complain seem to complain about him as if he's set to be the starter this year or next.

The people who are excited seem to be excited about his potential as to how he'll be two to three years down the road, and whether the big risk home run swing connects.

The people in the former don't seem to understand what the point of this pick is. The people in the latter get it, and their expectations aren't high at all. They are just dreaming about what happens if the lottery ticket hits.

The people in the former know that the lottery odds are huge and don't care to dream. The people in the latter know the lottery odds are huge but love to dream. Someone wins the lottery, eventually.

This is a lottery ticket with a big time, legendary payday. We bought it, it's done. Don't be shocked if it comes up naught. That's the odds. If it pays off, even on a sub-prize, that's a huge win and those that dreamed get some recompense. But it's a lottery ticket. There has been ZERO talk about this kid starting...only about his potential. Those arguing against it are claiming he can't, it won't, etc...and they might be right. But the ticket is purchased, and purchased by a couple of dudes who have good luck at the numbers. Let's see if it cashes in.

Nobody is wrong and right in this one. They closed their eyes and swung for the fences. they may connect, and if they do, holy ****. If they don't, a 4th rounder converts to a TE and probably is pretty good there. Even if the doesn't do that, so what, they flush a 4th rounder. Big effing whoop. This home run chop is WELL swung...let's see what happens.

It's been talked to death. We own the lottery ticket now...it either gets cashed or crumpled. I'm rooting for cashed, and don't care if it gets crumpled. It was perfectly purchased, with time to observe and evaluate prior to a pretty good QB draft next year while learning behind an entrenched starter for the time being.

I don't understand the headscratching on this one. Unless you want McCarron or mettenberger to sit the bench for two years to eventually be...well, John Skelton or so.

This

 

[BullheadCardFan]

It's been talked to death. We own the lottery ticket now...it either gets cashed or crumpled. I'm rooting for cashed, and don't care if it gets crumpled. It was perfectly purchased, with time to observe and evaluate prior to a pretty good QB draft next year while learning behind an entrenched starter for the time being.

Agree

 

[cardncubfan]

The people who complain seem to complain about him as if he's set to be the starter this year or next.

The people who are excited seem to be excited about his potential as to how he'll be two to three years down the road, and whether the big risk home run swing connects.

The people in the former don't seem to understand what the point of this pick is. The people in the latter get it, and their expectations aren't high at all. They are just dreaming about what happens if the lottery ticket hits.

The people in the former know that the lottery odds are huge and don't care to dream. The people in the latter know the lottery odds are huge but love to dream. Someone wins the lottery, eventually.

This is a lottery ticket with a big time, legendary payday. We bought it, it's done. Don't be shocked if it comes up naught. That's the odds. If it pays off, even on a sub-prize, that's a huge win and those that dreamed get some recompense. But it's a lottery ticket. There has been ZERO talk about this kid starting...only about his potential. Those arguing against it are claiming he can't, it won't, etc...and they might be right. But the ticket is purchased, and purchased by a couple of dudes who have good luck at the numbers. Let's see if it cashes in.

Nobody is wrong and right in this one. They closed their eyes and swung for the fences. they may connect, and if they do, holy ****. If they don't, a 4th rounder converts to a TE and probably is pretty good there. Even if the doesn't do that, so what, they flush a 4th rounder. Big effing whoop. This home run chop is WELL swung...let's see what happens.

It's been talked to death. We own the lottery ticket now...it either gets cashed or crumpled. I'm rooting for cashed, and don't care if it gets crumpled. It was perfectly purchased, with time to observe and evaluate prior to a pretty good QB draft next year while learning behind an entrenched starter for the time being.

I don't understand the headscratching on this one. Unless you want McCarron or mettenberger to sit the bench for two years to eventually be...well, John Skelton or so.

Excellent post D-Dogg.

 

[Russ Smith]

The people who complain seem to complain about him as if he's set to be the starter this year or next.

The people who are excited seem to be excited about his potential as to how he'll be two to three years down the road, and whether the big risk home run swing connects.

The people in the former don't seem to understand what the point of this pick is. The people in the latter get it, and their expectations aren't high at all. They are just dreaming about what happens if the lottery ticket hits.

The people in the former know that the lottery odds are huge and don't care to dream. The people in the latter know the lottery odds are huge but love to dream. Someone wins the lottery, eventually.

This is a lottery ticket with a big time, legendary payday. We bought it, it's done. Don't be shocked if it comes up naught. That's the odds. If it pays off, even on a sub-prize, that's a huge win and those that dreamed get some recompense. But it's a lottery ticket. There has been ZERO talk about this kid starting...only about his potential. Those arguing against it are claiming he can't, it won't, etc...and they might be right. But the ticket is purchased, and purchased by a couple of dudes who have good luck at the numbers. Let's see if it cashes in.

Nobody is wrong and right in this one. They closed their eyes and swung for the fences. they may connect, and if they do, holy ****. If they don't, a 4th rounder converts to a TE and probably is pretty good there. Even if the doesn't do that, so what, they flush a 4th rounder. Big effing whoop. This home run chop is WELL swung...let's see what happens.

It's been talked to death. We own the lottery ticket now...it either gets cashed or crumpled. I'm rooting for cashed, and don't care if it gets crumpled. It was perfectly purchased, with time to observe and evaluate prior to a pretty good QB draft next year while learning behind an entrenched starter for the time being.

I don't understand the headscratching on this one. Unless you want McCarron or mettenberger to sit the bench for two years to eventually be...well, John Skelton or so.

HAven't seen one of us complaining suggest he's going to start next year that's a complete strawman.

It's a message board, if it's fair for people to spend literally months dissecting the draft and doing 15 mocks, it's certainly fair for some of us to discuss the actual picks after the draft.

It seemed to me that Arians had make up his mind in advance he was taking a QB and decided to take Thomas.

When I voiced my opinion on Thomas people keep responding by rattling off the names of other black QB's in the NFL who they apparently think are similar to Thomas. I'm merely pointing out they are NOT similar, they were all significantly better college QB's than Logan Thomas.

The one argument I don't disagree with is he hasn't played that much QB, he's a good athlete maybe he'll get better. But again the counter there is the longer he was in college getting more coaching, the worse he got. He didn't improve he got worse.

I'm sure there are examples of similar guys who wound up being ok, I just can't think of one.

If the Cards picked him to convert him to TE I'd be thrilled with the pick, but we didn't.

As to why it's so hotly debated for a 4th round pick, because a bunch of people seem convinced we got the steal of the draft.

 

[Duckjake]

What happened with Russell Wilson that he went from under 57.8% completion rate in 3 seasons at NC to over 72.8% at Wisconsin?

 

[JCSunsfan]

What happened with Russell Wilson that he went from under 57.8% completion rate in 3 seasons at NC to over 72.8% at Wisconsin?

That's a good question. I thought accuracy doesn't improve.

 

[Mulli]

Russ, did you see me bring up Cutler?

 

[Russ Smith]

That's a good question. I thought accuracy doesn't improve.

Just a guess but maybe if you looked at the numbers you might see why Wilson's % went up so much?

At NC State he threw the ball 31 times a game as a soph and 41 times a game as a junior. Very pass happy offense. 31 TD passes as a soph, 28 as a junior. At wisconsin as a senior he averaged only 22 pass attempts a game. So in a run oriented offense where he wasn't asked to pass nearly as often is it really surprising that he suddenly completed a higher %?

And again he was significantly better at NC State than Thomas was at Va Tech, Thomas has never even had 20 TD passes in a season let alone 31, 28 and 33(senior at Wisconsin for Wilson). Wilson had 3 years in college that were better than Thomas' best year in college.

They just aren't comparable based on college production.

 

[Mulli]

I found a perfect comp!!


http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brett-favre-1.html

 

[Duckjake]

Just a guess but maybe if you looked at the numbers you might see why Wilson's % went up so much?

At NC State he threw the ball 31 times a game as a soph and 41 times a game as a junior. Very pass happy offense. 31 TD passes as a soph, 28 as a junior. At wisconsin as a senior he averaged only 22 pass attempts a game. So in a run oriented offense where he wasn't asked to pass nearly as often is it really surprising that he suddenly completed a higher %?

And again he was significantly better at NC State than Thomas was at Va Tech, Thomas has never even had 20 TD passes in a season let alone 31, 28 and 33(senior at Wisconsin for Wilson). Wilson had 3 years in college that were better than Thomas' best year in college.

They just aren't comparable based on college production.

Who is comparing them? I was just asking what happened to increase the completion %. I don't follow Wisconsin or NC football so I didn't know anything about Wilson or what offenses those schools run.

It doesn't seem to me that just throwing fewer passes would make a QB more accurate. Maybe in the run oriented offense they threw more safe passes that were easier to complete? Or because the defense was overplaying the run it was easier to complete the passes? The latter could explain Wilson's huge jump in Yards per Attempt at Wisconsin.

 

[Russ Smith]

Russ, did you see me bring up Cutler?

I don't see them as similar. Cutler played on a terrible college team in a loaded conference. It made sense that his college numbers weren't great because he didn't have talent around him and was always playing against teams that were stacked with NFL prospects.

VA Tech is not Alabama, but they've been a very consistent program. they won 10, 11 and 11 in 3 straight years. the 2nd of the 11's was Thomas's soph year.

He wasn't playing with anywhere near the talent discrepancy that Cutler was.

All the scouts said the same thing on Cutler it's hard to judge how good he might be because he was always running for his life in the SEC. That IMO is not the case with Logan Thomas.

But yeah if he turns out to be as good as Cutler I'll be very happy.

 

[Duckjake]

I found a perfect comp!!


http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brett-favre-1.html

Me too.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/joe-montana-1.html

 

[Russ Smith]

I found a perfect comp!!


http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brett-favre-1.html

Sorry there was so much carbon on that data I had a hard time reading it.

Surely you can find a QB less than 25 years ago that compares to Thomas.

Arm strength is similar but Favre wasn't being recruited at TE and WR by everyone that recruited him out of HS.

If he turns out anywhere near as good as Favre I'll be thrilled.

 

[Mulli]

Check and mate!

Obviously, I have changed my opinion from the Skelton completion percentage debates.

Haha

 

[Mulli]

Sorry there was so much carbon on that data I had a hard time reading it.

Surely you can find a QB less than 25 years ago that compares to Thomas.

Arm strength is similar but Favre wasn't being recruited at TE and WR by everyone that recruited him out of HS.

If he turns out anywhere near as good as Favre I'll be thrilled.

People asked for QB' with low comp %. Now you are adding criteria. Come on!

 

[Southpaw]

What happened with Russell Wilson that he went from under 57.8% completion rate in 3 seasons at NC to over 72.8% at Wisconsin?

Invalid argument.

 

[overseascardfan]

I understand that Thomas isn't expected to be a contributor any time soon, BA even said he can't guarantee he'll even make the team this year. My concern is that he is a 4th round pick so his contract will be 3 years maybe option for Year 4. If he takes 3 years to develop he may not be on the team by then. BA is known as the QB guru so hopefully Thomas is ready when Palmer's contract is up.

 

[Mulli]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/michael-vick-1.html

Mentioned?

 

[Southpaw]

Who is comparing them? I was just asking what happened to increase the completion %. I don't follow Wisconsin or NC football so I didn't know anything about Wilson or what offenses those schools run.

It doesn't seem to me that just throwing fewer passes would make a QB more accurate. Maybe in the run oriented offense they threw more safe passes that were easier to complete? Or because the defense was overplaying the run it was easier to complete the passes? The latter could explain Wilson's huge jump in Yards per Attempt at Wisconsin.

That is what happened. Ar North Carolina State Jim O'Brien had a wide open offense. Bret Bielema @ Wisconsin was 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Wilson's % numbers were distorted.

 

[Southpaw]

I understand that Thomas isn't expected to be a contributor any time soon, BA even said he can't guarantee he'll even make the team this year. My concern is that he is a 4th round pick so his contract will be 3 years maybe option for Year 4. If he takes 3 years to develop he may not be on the team by then. BA is known as the QB guru so hopefully Thomas is ready when Palmer's contract is up.

and in 3 years Palmer will be 38 years old. I'll take Patriots plan to replace Brady over this one.

 

[Mulli]

That is what happened. Ar North Carolina State Jim O'Brien had a wide open offense. Bret Bielema @ Wisconsin was 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Wilson's % numbers were distorted.

Yes, Wilson's number were distorted, as were Cutler's. but not LT's. we get it.

 

[GuernseyCard]

and in 3 years Palmer will be 38 years old. I'll take Patriots plan to replace Brady over this one.

But, Palmer will play a full 16 games in 2014 before he turns 35 on December 27.

16 in 2015 (36)
16 in 2016 (37)
16 in 2017 (38)

 

[Mulli]

But, Palmer will play a full 16 games in 2014 before he turns 35 on December 27.

16 in 2015 (35)
16 in 2016 (36)
16 in 2017 (37)
16 in 2018 (38)

Jinx!!!