Anti Ayton Stuff Flowing Now

[Chris_Sanders]

Today's news

The Ringer

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/6/13/17456542/deandre-ayton-defense-nba-draft

Summary of the Article is that Ayton's defensive potential is really poor based on steal and block rates. Bagley awful too. They really like JJJ and Doncic


ESPN Analytics

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23771351/espn-draft-analytics-model-makes-nba-draft-projections

Summary is that Bagley is the top prospect. Doncic next. Ayton 3rd. JJJ 4th. Bamba 6th

Trae Young has the highest bust potential in the draft and is 10th. Ayton has the highest bust chance in the top 8. JJJ has the lowest.

 

[unseenaz]

what scares me about ayton is that he's riding a ton of recent hype. no one was saying anything about him before last season, it was all Bagley

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

what scares me about ayton is that he's riding a ton of recent hype. no one was saying anything about him before last season, it was all Bagley

Ayton has been on the radar for a really long time. Bagley got a lot of hype because he reclassified, and Porter has been at the top at various times, but people were hyping up Ayton early and often.

Here's an article about how Scout named him the top longterm prospect in all of high school basketball as a sophomore.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-ba...ting-best-prospects-in-high-school-basketball

Scout released its annual list of the top 100 prospects in high school basketball on Monday, with Ayton, a 6'11 San Diego native, ranked as the best player. Ayton has been on the map for a while. When he was in eighth grade, some wondered if he was already good enough to play college basketball.

 

[hsandhu]

what scares me about ayton is that he's riding a ton of recent hype. no one was saying anything about him before last season, it was all Bagley

Utterly ridiculous. Ayton has been a huge prospect since high school. There are videos of him from 8th grade on YouTube with almost a million views.

Nbadraft.net had him compared to David Robinson before last college season started.

 

[elindholm]

Today's news

The Ringer

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

 

[Chaplin]

what scares me about ayton is that he's riding a ton of recent hype. no one was saying anything about him before last season, it was all Bagley

When he was in 8th grade he was called the best 8th grader in the country. I'd say that's not very recent.

 

[Cheesebeef]

it's officially draft-click-bait season.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

it's officially draft-click-bait season.

To an extent yes but there are some good analytics in those articles. The ringer article I believe is the most impressive.

 

[Western Font]

Listening to the various Ringer NBA pods, I think they are in “surprise picks and steals” mode. Which is natural: you can talk about the top picks for only so long. They had Doncic atop their first mock, then the story was him falling, and now that’s not even a hot story.

Then the writers turned to their sleepers, and once you say player X “might end up being the best player in this draft” enough times, you start to believe they are the best player in the draft.

 

[Dback Jon]

How did JJJ, a player who did little as a Frosh, become such a hot commodity?

 

[pokerface]

Today's news

The Ringer

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/6/13/17456542/deandre-ayton-defense-nba-draft

Summary of the Article is that Ayton's defensive potential is really poor based on steal and block rates. Bagley awful too. They really like JJJ and Doncic


ESPN Analytics

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23771351/espn-draft-analytics-model-makes-nba-draft-projections

Summary is that Bagley is the top prospect. Doncic next. Ayton 3rd. JJJ 4th. Bamba 6th

Trae Young has the highest bust potential in the draft and is 10th. Ayton has the highest bust chance in the top 8. JJJ has the lowest.

Ayton played out of position and the article never mentioned that. So they fail for providing some balance.

 

[BC867]

The naysayers want to psyche the Suns into not drafting the favorite for #1 pick.

Can you imagine what the basketball world would say about the wussy Suns waiting 50 years for the #1 pick then blowing it?

Sarver would join Bryan on a Ring of Dishonor wall which should be set up in the Men's room.

 

[pokerface]

The naysayers want to psyche the Suns into not drafting the favorite for #1 pick.

Can you imagine what the basketball world would say about the wussy Suns waiting 50 years for the #1 pick then blowing it?

Sarver would join Bryan on a Ring of Dishonor wall which should be set up in the Men's room.

Right on BC! We are NOT going to get swindled out of our pick of Ayton . That article was a trick because Ayton played out of position which was HUGE to leave out.

Ayton is the only unicorn in this draft IMO. If they wanna knock him then what does that say about the others? You could call the rest of them tweeners, foul magnets, T-Rex arms, and skinny slim Jims if we want to go down that road. If Ayton isn't all that then who is??

 

[Mr. Boldin]

How did JJJ, a player who did little as a Frosh, become such a hot commodity?

Because he projects into today's NBA. Can protect the rim, switch onto guards, has length and a massive standing reach, and shot that projects with a good FT%. Not his fault Izzo refused to use him properly and with limited minutes.

I dont think his upside is as great as some of the other bigs, name Ayton, but you can see the talent and fit into what NBA teams are asking of their C's today.

 

[Mainstreet]

I think the quote below is where the ESPN article gets too focused.

Where the real separation occurs is actually prior to when either was in college: it's their AAU numbers. Bagley, playing for his father's Phoenix Phamily team, put up better numbers in most parts of the game relative to Ayton on California Supreme.

Using AAU data is weak to me.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23771351/espn-draft-analytics-model-makes-nba-draft-projections

And the Ringer article seems to primarily focus on defense to knock him.

Ayton is not a finished product. They know he can walk on the NBA floor and contribute a double double.

 

[Mr. Boldin]

Ayton played out of position and the article never mentioned that. So they fail for providing some balance.

That block rate came with Jackson playing largely at the 4 in college, too, which separates him further from the likes of Bagley, who played next to fellow 2018 lottery candidate Wendell Carter Jr. in the frontcourt, and Ayton, who also started next to another center (fellow 7-footer Dusan Ristic). It’s easy to attribute the defensive underperformance of those two heralded freshmen to their position, but internal competition didn’t prevent Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein from collecting blocks at Kentucky, and just last season, Jackson proved that a top defender can cast his shadow over the full court regardless of role.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Because he projects into today's NBA. Can protect the rim, switch onto guards, has length and a massive standing reach, and shot that projects with a good FT%. Not his fault Izzo refused to use him properly and with limited minutes.

I dont think his upside is as great as some of the other bigs, name Ayton, but you can see the talent and fit into what NBA teams are asking of their C's today.

I guess my question is if he was THAT good, why wouldn't Izzo play him more minutes? That Michigan St team played in an awful conference this year, wasn't that impressive despite their record and then lost as a 3 seed in the tourney in the second round. if he was THAT good, with that much talent coming back from last year, shouldn't he have been a guy to put them over the top?

 

[Mr. Boldin]

I think the quote below is where the ESPN article gets too focused.



Using AAU data is weak to me.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23771351/espn-draft-analytics-model-makes-nba-draft-projections

And the Ringer article seems to primarily focus on defense to knock him.

Ayton is not a finished product. They know he can walk on the NBA floor and contribute a double double.

Using AAU data is a flaw to the algorithm (outside of some context and something to form a baseline, such as FT%). Not to mention this qualifier, to which I agree and also believe it is another flaw for the rest of their rankings outside the consensus top 4 (which they have):

So far, our model has done a better job at identifying top talent and has less noise.

 

[Mr. Boldin]

I guess my question is if he was THAT good, why wouldn't Izzo play him more minutes? That Michigan St team played in an awful conference this year, wasn't that impressive despite their record and then lost as a 3 seed in the tourney in the second round. if he was THAT good, with that much talent coming back from last year, shouldn't he have been a guy to put them over the top?

He did foul a lot, but Izzo refusing to play him more was one of the major story lines in draft circles. Why the hell was he not playing more and being put in a position to succeed on both ends of the floor?

 

[Mainstreet]

Ayton played out of position and the article never mentioned that. So they fail for providing some balance.

As I mentioned before the Suns worked out Ristic. If the Suns were seriously interested, he would likely be a backup center.

 

[TJ]

Apparently, the media is bored because the Finals are over and the draft is over a week away.

Paralysis by analysis. Ayton is not as bad on defense as he's being portrayed. It's actually pretty frustrating to read, at this point.

 

[Cheesebeef]

He did foul a lot, but Izzo refusing to play him more was one of the major story lines in draft circles. Why the hell was he not playing more and being put in a position to succeed on both ends of the floor?

yeah. definitely gives me pause, but his abilities are eye popping. I just don't know how many big men go at the top of the draft based on almost potential alone... most of it just pure athleticism... that end of becoming stars. I get how that used to happen with the high schoolers in the draft. But my head just always goes to guys like the Stromile Swift, Tyrus Thomas and Derrick Favors... the ghosts of Lottery Past.

Probably not totally fair, but are there a lot of examples of super hyped "measurables" guys or per guys who never really put up full seasons in college, came out early and ended up being as good as people hoped or projected them to be? I'm sure there are... they just don't pop up in my head.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Apparently, the media is bored because the Finals are over and the draft is over a week away.

Paralysis by analysis. Ayton is not as bad on defense as he's being portrayed. It's actually pretty frustrating to read, at this point.

there's only so many articles that can talk about whether LeBron's crap had corn or peanuts in it because if there's corn, that means he stays in Cleveland because it's closer to Iowa or peanuts, which means he's going to Houston because that's the second biggest peanut farming state in the country next to the Atlanta and everyone knows he's not going to the Hawks.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Apparently, the media is bored because the Finals are over and the draft is over a week away.

Paralysis by analysis. Ayton is not as bad on defense as he's being portrayed. It's actually pretty frustrating to read, at this point.

Cmon the “lacking on defense” drum has been banging on Ayton for the entire year - this isn’t recent paralysis by analysis.

 

[TJ]

Cmon the “lacking on defense” drum has been banging on Ayton for the entire year - this isn’t recent paralysis by analysis.

It’s embellished and played out.