Ayton's Ceiling

[Mr. Boldin]

Again, Ayton has issues diagnosing plays and completing his assignments and rotations. Hes late a lot, he doesnt contest much at the rim (although he certainly improved over the season), and sometimes he flat out stands around
Again, is the issue cant or doesnt know how?

My guess, having seen every game, is a bit of both. I think hell improve in that regard, but how much is the question.

 

[Hoop Head]

Again, Ayton has issues diagnosing plays and completing his assignments and rotations. Hes late a lot, he doesnt contest much at the rim (although he certainly improved over the season), and sometimes he flat out stands around
Again, is the issue cant or doesnt know how?

My guess, having seen every game, is a bit of both. I think hell improve in that regard, but how much is the question.

If he was playing on the perimeter as a PF though he'd be out of place to be a traditional rim protector. So his rotations may not be as much of an issue when he's sticking to a Center that plays down in the block, closer to the rim.

 

[Mr. Boldin]

If he was playing on the perimeter as a PF though he'd be out of place to be a traditional rim protector. So his rotations may not be as much of an issue when he's sticking to a Center that plays down in the block, closer to the rim.

That doesn't matter. People keep saying that. Watch the tape. When hes the only big on the floor, or even if hes supposed to help a guard or Ristic at the rim, these issues exist. The rotation was slow or nonexistant. There are dozens of cases I can point to where he walls up at the rim, has his man cut off, and doesnt contest the shot. Its not and end all, be all, and I'm sure there will be plenty of improvement.
Still, trust me, I broke this down all season.

Is it a big deal? If he doesn't improve much, yes. Doesnt change the fact I have him #1.

As I said elsewhere, if hes your only big on the floor, and he isn't protecting the rim, you either need a forward next to him who can (plus pass or shoot) or there will be issues.

Everyone has negatives. This is his. That's all.

 

[Hoop Head]

That doesn't matter. People keep saying that. Watch the tape. When hes the only big on the floor, or even if hes supposed to help a guard or Ristic at the rim, these issues exist. The rotation was slow or nonexistant. There are dozens of cases I can point to where he walls up at the rim, has his man cut off, and doesnt contest the shot. Its not and end all, be all, and I'm sure there will be plenty of improvement.
Still, trust me, I broke this down all season.

Is it a big deal? If he doesn't improve much, yes. Doesnt change the fact I have him #1.

As I said elsewhere, if hes your only big on the floor, and he isn't protecting the rim, you either need a forward next to him who can (plus pass or shoot) or there will be issues.

Everyone has negatives. This is his. That's all.

Appreciate it. Trying to figure out where to start in terms of scouting him. With Doncic is was easy, in a way, because people would name weaknesses and then someone would post Youtube videos trying to counter those claims. With Ayton it seems that everyone here is enamored with him and his faults are often swept under the run. I'm not sure if that's because of a UofA bias, his faults not being that big of a deal or relatively minor, or his strengths outweighing them by a large margin. I don't believe you're a Suns fan though so your takes have been interesting to read, there doesn't appear to be any bias to them since you don't really have a dog in this fight.

 

[GatorAZ]

Again, Ayton has issues diagnosing plays and completing his assignments and rotations. Hes late a lot, he doesnt contest much at the rim (although he certainly improved over the season), and sometimes he flat out stands around
Again, is the issue cant or doesnt know how?

My guess, having seen every game, is a bit of both. I think hell improve in that regard, but how much is the question.

Ayton is a bad defender. When you put a bad defender on a bad defensive team he’s going to look clueless. There wasn’t a single good defender on the team and I think Miller was someone out of it emotionally. Nothing changed throughout the season. They kept making the same mistakes and it ended miserably.

I think they will try to get deep with him during the pre-draft process on how much he cares and wants to improve that aspect of his game. More than just the simple stuff that he’ll be well prepared for by his agent.

 

[Mr. Boldin]

Appreciate it. Trying to figure out where to start in terms of scouting him. With Doncic is was easy, in a way, because people would name weaknesses and then someone would post Youtube videos trying to counter those claims. With Ayton it seems that everyone here is enamored with him and his faults are often swept under the run. I'm not sure if that's because of a UofA bias, his faults not being that big of a deal or relatively minor, or his strengths outweighing them by a large margin. I don't believe you're a Suns fan though so your takes have been interesting to read, there doesn't appear to be any bias to them since you don't really have a dog in this fight.

I try to call it like I see it. I'm a huge Arizona fan, but I've seen enough of Ayton to know what he coukd/could not do in Tucson, and then what he projects to do in the NBA with more spacing and guard talent around him.

Defense is an issue, but his offensive ability is nearly unlimited IMO.

 

[Chaplin]

People are talking like Ayton is and always will be a liability on defense. Defense is a teachable skill and he was never put in a position to do well on defense in Tucson. And nobody here saw him in high school and high school isn’t exactly a bastion of defensive skill.

Point is, if you are using defense to justify NOT taking him at #1, that is a massive mistake.

 

[JCSunsfan]

People are talking like Ayton is and always will be a liability on defense. Defense is a teachable skill and he was never put in a position to do well on defense in Tucson. And nobody here saw him in high school and high school isn’t exactly a bastion of defensive skill.

Point is, if you are using defense to justify NOT taking him at #1, that is a massive mistake.

I agree. It also seems the main gripe about his defense is his shot-blocking. However, he seems to block a lot of shots when defending straight on. He does not seem to have a knack for blocking shots on help defense or sliding from the weak side. I wonder if that was how he was coached (got too many fouls at some point doing it) or its just his natural tendency.

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[Chaplin]

I agree. It also seems the main gripe about his defense is his shot-blocking. However, he seems to block a lot of shots when defending straight on. He does not seem to have a knack for blocking shots on help defense or sliding from the weak side. I wonder if that was how he was coached (got too many fouls at some point doing it) or its just his natural tendency.

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Shot-blocking is a big part of defense, but it's not the only part. A guy can be a great defender and not make many blocks. It seems with big men, the only gauge is his shot-blocking ability. IMO the biggest part of defense is positioning, and that can be taught. Instincts could be a big part of getting blocks, but I'm not too worried about blocks as long as he prevents guards and wings from driving to the basket successfully.

Besides, shot-blockers also tend to gamble and foul a lot. I'd be ok if Ayton didn't do that, at least early in his career.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Shot-blocking is a big part of defense, but it's not the only part. A guy can be a great defender and not make many blocks. It seems with big men, the only gauge is his shot-blocking ability. IMO the biggest part of defense is positioning, and that can be taught. Instincts could be a big part of getting blocks, but I'm not too worried about blocks as long as he prevents guards and wings from driving to the basket successfully.

Besides, shot-blockers also tend to gamble and foul a lot. I'd be ok if Ayton didn't do that, at least early in his career.

Not to mention a big part of defense is limiting teams to one shot and for all Ayton’s warts as a shot blocker/playing in space, he’s a dominant rebounder.

11.6 rebounds per game is pretty damn impressive.

 

[Mr. Boldin]

Ayton's defensive value is being able to slide laterally with wings on the perimeter. Thats a pretty unique trait. That said, rim protection is huge, especially if he is the only big with size on the floor. You better be stout on the perimeter to help make up for that.

 

[SirStefan32]

Not to mention a big part of defense is limiting teams to one shot and for all Ayton’s warts as a shot blocker/playing in space, he’s a dominant rebounder.

11.6 rebounds per game is pretty damn impressive.

And rebounding tends to be one thing that translates into the NBA very reliably. I am still not convinced Ayton can guard a broken chair, but I have zero doubt when it comes to his rebounding.

 

[Cheesebeef]

And rebounding tends to be one thing that translates into the NBA very reliably. I am still not convinced Ayton can guard a broken chair, but I have zero doubt when it comes to his rebounding.

I appreciate the first part, but the second part of the statement seems really out of whack considering how much you malign others for saying the same thing about Doncic, questioning his ability on that end.

Doubt if he can guard a broken chair? That seems like a big bowl of hyperbole to me, especially since you've admitted you've only watched a couple games of Ayton.

 

[HeHasRosen]

Ayton will get better at defense. He already has without being shown the proper way. Wait till he is actually coached properly. One thing about this guy is he picks things up quickly.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

People are talking like Ayton is and always will be a liability on defense. Defense is a teachable skill and he was never put in a position to do well on defense in Tucson. And nobody here saw him in high school and high school isn’t exactly a bastion of defensive skill.

Point is, if you are using defense to justify NOT taking him at #1, that is a massive mistake.

Alot of the Defense lapses they show is him guarding Wings not, as a Center. Defense is taught as well and he is a rebound monster

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I appreciate the first part, but the second part of the statement seems really out of whack considering how much you malign others for saying the same thing about Doncic, questioning his ability on that end.

Doubt if he can guard a broken chair? That seems like a big bowl of hyperbole to me, especially since you've admitted you've only watched a couple games of Ayton.

I watched a ton of Ayton. He was played on the perimeter too much but he was REALLY lackluster defensively. I think awareness is his greatest hurdle.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I watched a ton of Ayton. He was played on the perimeter too much but he was REALLY lackluster defensively. I think awareness is his greatest hurdle.

That’s fine and not my point which was it’s one thing to question Ayton’s D... it’s another thing to do so while consistently slamming people for who question Doncic’s.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

That’s fine and not my point which was it’s one thing to question Ayton’s D... it’s another thing to do so while consistently slamming people for who question Doncic’s.

I haven’t seen him “slam” anyone. That’s hyperbole. And every time you comment on one prospect doesn’t necessitate you comment on the other. Every poster can discuss a single player individually if they like.

Also, here’s the interesting thing, I’ve heard doncic’s athleticism questioned, and I’ve never seen him touted as a good defender. But I’m unsure I’ve actually seen anyone say he’s a “bad” defender. If I missed a quote I missed a quote. But I think a lot of people are ASSUMING/PROJECTING him to be a bad defender based on average athleticism. And that doesn’t mean he is.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Right now, Bender is a poor defender. But he has moments where he shows potential and his supporters use those moments to build a case for him as a defender. I know it was in college, not the pros, but Ayton, despite his obvious defensive failures, had a lot more great defensive moments than Bender did. He makes mistakes but it's not like he doesn't give effort and make plays.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I haven’t seen him “slam” anyone. That’s hyperbole. And every time you comment on one prospect doesn’t necessitate you comment on the other. Every poster can discuss a single player individually if they like.

Also, here’s the interesting thing, I’ve heard doncic’s athleticism questioned, and I’ve never seen him touted as a good defender. But I’m unsure I’ve actually seen anyone say he’s a “bad” defender. If I missed a quote I missed a quote. But I think a lot of people are ASSUMING/PROJECTING him to be a bad defender based on average athleticism. And that doesn’t mean he is.

Good grief dude. Just put me on ignore at this point.

 

[Russ Smith]

I agree. It also seems the main gripe about his defense is his shot-blocking. However, he seems to block a lot of shots when defending straight on. He does not seem to have a knack for blocking shots on help defense or sliding from the weak side. I wonder if that was how he was coached (got too many fouls at some point doing it) or its just his natural tendency.

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I didn't watch the whole video but most of those blocks in teh first minute are against guys he's 7-8 inches taller than. People drove at him and scored all year, so I suspect we had a little baseball assists situation going on where guys who don't have great arms get assists because everyone challenges their arm. As the year went on people were consciously targeting Ayton, he got some blocks and his per 100 stats were pretty decent, but it was quite surprising how often smaller guys went right at him and scored. I saw him play more than Bamba but with Bamba it was much less common to see guys challenge him, the Carters and Bagleys yes, but smaller guys just figured out quickly it wasn't a good idea to go at Bamba, I didn't see that with Ayton.

I just think he has a timing thing, I think it's why he lost so many jump balls despite being able to touch the top of teh glass. Terrific offensive player. In the NBA with everyone going smaller his ability to move his feet will actually be a good asset on defense. But yeah if he doesn't get better at rim protection it'll be a problem. NBA guys are MUCH better at playing against size, and drawing fouls too.

You gotta pick him first he's a physical freak that's still learning the game.

 

[devilalum]

From another thread. A poster said Ayton's ceiling is Amare.

I understand that comparison as an agile scoring big man but I think it is far higher due to his size and rebounding ability.

So what is Ayton's ceiling? What is his floor?

Its a hard comparison because his scoring is elite. Inside to mid range he is dominant. He is still useful at the 3 but not elite there He is also a very good rebounder

So I would say his floor is a poor mans Demarcus Cousins. I will be shocked if he isn't at least 18 and 10 in the NBA. Can he defend adequately or make his teammates better is the real question.

His ceiling? What if he was horribly miscast at the 4 and that is why he was a poor defender. What if he can be taught how to play in space? What if he is a better passer out of the post then Miller let him show?

Well I get very lofty then. It's not a stretch to put him in the top 5 in PER in the NBA.

So I will put him his ceiling at better Joel Embid.

His floor is decent big man. His ceiling is all pro.

You have to take him at 1

If his ceiling is a healthy 3rd year Amare I’d take that in a second. At that point Amare was amazing. He was totally outplaying Duncan who was still in his prime. If Amare has stayed healthy he would have been one of the 5 best PFs of all time.

I think Ayton moves a lot like Hakeem.


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[Chaplin]

Ayton will get better at defense. He already has without being shown the proper way. Wait till he is actually coached properly. One thing about this guy is he picks things up quickly.

Seems like that can apply to Doncic as well.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Seems like that can apply to Doncic as well.

It could but the question for me here always is does Doncic have the actual athletic tools to become a good or great defender. I’m skeptical just because of the elite level athletes in the league and I don’t see that level of athleticism in Doncic. That said, techniques and smarts go a long way so I don’t completely rule it out. But even basketball IQ can only take you so far.

With Ayton, we know he has those physical tools... but the question remains if he can be taught how to properly use them.

 

[HeHasRosen]

It could but the question for me here always is does Doncic have the actual athletic tools to become a good or great defender. I’m skeptical just because of the elite level athletes in the league and I don’t see that level of athleticism in Doncic. That said, techniques and smarts go a long way so I don’t completely rule it out. But even basketball IQ can only take you so far.

With Ayton, we know he has those physical tools... but the question remains if he can be taught how to properly use them.

Exactly. You cant say Doncic is gonna improve his lateral movement and quickness enough to D up pgs. He should be fine at SF though. With Ayton its technique and situational awareness. That comes with coaching and experience