Budda Baker getting paid

[Chopper0080]

Yes. I actually don't have a problem with this extension. I have a problem with thinking that the deal is somehow fair or good and represents a savvy move by Keim. Obviously, it's probably an overpay, but Krang is right that you don't get better by removing your good players.

As I said earlier, I think that Budda can be the fifth- or sixth-best player on a good defense. Hopefully Simmons comes along quickly and Murphy takes a couple of steps forward.

As you said earlier in this thread, the devil is in the details and I would argue that when you dissect the contract, it looks like a very reasonable deal in relation to other S contracts referenced above. Especially when you consider he doesn't make over 10 mil until 2022 and doesn't make over 15 mil until 2023. You can even hate those last two years of cap hits totaling 16.8 and 17.9 but you can cut Baker in 2023 and only accrue 7.5 in dead money. It is a pretty team friendly deal that enables a cut/restructure/extension opportunity in 2023 and almost forces it in 2024.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think Budda Baker is a good player who is still getting better who has warts. He's not perfect.

But as @Chopper0080 has demonstrated, a good chunk of the "highest paid for his position" is really just window dressing.

Teams don't get better by letting good players walk.

teams also don’t get better by paying good players great player’s salaries. That kinda thing can keep them running in place.

 

[Chopper0080]

Budda stinks in coverage. If he prefers FS, he’s playing to his weakness. He’s a more physical TM who is better playing close to the line but doesn’t make game-changing plays.
TM was and is a great tackler who specialized in going for the strip because it changes games. Budda is a better tackler on the guys who received a pass over him for the first down.

I actually disagree a bit with this. I would argue that Baker's biggest strength is his ability to diagnose a play and then run and go get it (ball carrier, ball, whatever) and his tackling. If I look at where he is weakest, I would identify his slower change of direction and lack of length is why he struggles when covering in the slot and TEs.

IMO, as a single high S, his strengths are on display and highlighted. That is why his coverage grade last year was the highest it has been in his career. Acknowledging the unfair comp to Mathieu (despite his similar usage) is probably the biggest reason I have changed a bit on my opinion of Baker. Completely different games.

 

[Chopper0080]

teams also don’t get better by paying good players great player’s salaries. That kinda thing can keep them running in place.

When you are dedicating 30 mil to your QB, this is can be true. When you aren't, it isn't.

Baker makes...

2020 - 3.7 mil
2021 - 7.75 mil
2022 - 14.775 mil

...how are the 2020 and 2021 salaries "great player salaries"? And as I am sure you will point out, the 2022 salary is tops, for now, but won't be then. He is 24 years old, has been healthy, and just getting to his prime. How are you spinning those things into a negative?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I am not saying he has been put in a position to fail, but he definitely has not been put in a position to succeed.

I think that he was. That said, players that are paid at the highest in NFL history should be able to transcend bad play calling and defensive coordiators and be able to shine anyway.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I actually disagree a bit with this. I would argue that Baker's biggest strength is his ability to diagnose a play and then run and go get it (ball carrier, ball, whatever) and his tackling. If I look at where he is weakest, I would identify his slower change of direction and lack of length is why he struggles when covering in the slot and TEs.

IMO, as a single high S, his strengths are on display and highlighted. That is why his coverage grade last year was the highest it has been in his career. Acknowledging the unfair comp to Mathieu (despite his similar usage) is probably the biggest reason I have changed a bit on my opinion of Baker. Completely different games.

His tackling for his body size and type is the only area that he excels at IMO. If he could diagnose a play as well as you say he could, he wouldn't get continually torched in coverage.

 

[Krangodnzr]

His tackling for his body size and type is the only area that he excels at IMO. If he could diagnose a play as well as you say he could, he wouldn't get continually torched in coverage.

I think @Chopper0080 is quite accurate in his assessment on why Budda struggles at times in coverage.

Lacks length and gets beat by quick receivers.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I think that he was. That said, players that are paid at the highest in NFL history should be able to transcend bad play calling and defensive coordiators and be able to shine anyway.

LOL me thinks you are forgetting how epically bad Steve Wilks coaching staff was.

 

[MadCardDisease]

teams also don’t get better by paying good players great player’s salaries. That kinda thing can keep them running in place.

I personally think that BB is a top 10 safety in the league. While he signed a contract that "technically" makes him the highest paid safety you have to look at the first 3 years of his contract:

Over the next 3 years Budda will make an average of $8M per year.


Then you look at the other safeties who have long term contracts over the next few years:

The 2 years remaining on the Mathieu's contract will average $18M per year.

Over the next 3 years Landon Collins will average $15.9M per year

Over the next 3 years Kevin Byard will average $13.2M per year

Over the next 3 years Lamarcus Joyner will average $10.6M per year

Over the next 3 years Adrian Amos will average $10.1M per year

Over the next 3 years Eddie Jackson will average $9.53M per year

 

[kerouac9]

I personally think that BB is a top 10 safety in the league. While he signed a contract that "technically" makes him the highest paid safety you have to look at the first 3 years of his contract:

Over the next 3 years Budda will make an average of $8M per year.


Then you look at the other safeties who have long term contracts over the next few years:

The 2 years remaining on the Mathieu's contract will average $18M per year.

Over the next 3 years Landon Collins will average $15.9M per year

Over the next 3 years Kevin Byard will average $13.2M per year

Over the next 3 years Lamarcus Joyner will average $10.6M per year

Over the next 3 years Adrian Amos will average $10.1M per year

Over the next 3 years Eddie Jackson will average $9.53M per year

Maybe, but I guess you have to decide if, in this defense, you want your toolsy safety to be one of the top-paid players on your defense/team. You only get to pay 5-7 players top money. I don't think the drop-off from Baker to replacement-level safety is that steep.

I actually disagree a bit with this. I would argue that Baker's biggest strength is his ability to diagnose a play and then run and go get it (ball carrier, ball, whatever) and his tackling. If I look at where he is weakest, I would identify his slower change of direction and lack of length is why he struggles when covering in the slot and TEs.

IMO, as a single high S, his strengths are on display and highlighted. That is why his coverage grade last year was the highest it has been in his career. Acknowledging the unfair comp to Mathieu (despite his similar usage) is probably the biggest reason I have changed a bit on my opinion of Baker. Completely different games.

His coverage grade was still a D from PFF, his 54% success rate was 32nd among DBs, and his 9.0 Adjusted Yards allowed was 56th among DBs.

 

[Shane]

I will say I’d rather pay Buddha then 4 years 48 million for Joe Mixon... holy hell he hasn’t done poo.

 

[juza76]

I will say I’d rather pay Buddha then 4 years 48 million for Joe Mixon... holy hell he hasn’t done ****.

He shouldn't even play nfl games to be honest

 

[DVontel]

I will say I’d rather pay Buddha then 4 years 48 million for Joe Mixon... holy hell he hasn’t done ****.

Nearly 3K yards + 17 TDs the past two seasons with me, you, @Krangthebrain @kerouac9 & @Chopper0080 blocking for him lol what

 

[BigRedRage]

He's signed. I'm over it. Good luck to him.

 

[MadCardDisease]

His tackling for his body size and type is the only area that he excels at IMO. If he could diagnose a play as well as you say he could, he wouldn't get continually torched in coverage.

People keep saying he gets torched constantly while in coverage. I'm not seeing it.


So far I have went back and looked at the highlights from the first six 2019 games and didn't see any plays of Budda getting torched:

the Lions game it's Hicks and Swearinger who were getting beat in coverage.

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The Ravens game it was Swearinger, Reddick and the young DBs who were struggling.

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The Carolina game Swearinger got owned by Olsen among others. Reddick was constantly in the wrong spot. Rookies struggled.

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The Seahawks game Chris Jones and Murphy struggled. As did Reddick and Swearinger at times.

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The Bengals game the Cardinals coverage was pretty solid.

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The Falcons game Reddick and Murphy really struggled in coverage. Thompson had some brain farts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr503a0_mtY&t=8m48s

 

[Chopper0080]

Maybe, but I guess you have to decide if, in this defense, you want your toolsy safety to be one of the top-paid players on your defense/team. You only get to pay 5-7 players top money. I don't think the drop-off from Baker to replacement-level safety is that steep.



His coverage grade was still a D from PFF, his 54% success rate was 32nd among DBs, and his 9.0 Adjusted Yards allowed was 56th among DBs.

Some of those analytics I will have to look into as I am not familiar with them. I know you aren't a PFF thumper but I will still point out that PFF guesses on coverage assignments in a similar way to their OL blocking analysis.

One area that Baker led the NFL in last year was in defeats by safeties. A "defeat" is a stat used by FootballOutsiders to catalog

• A tackle that results in a loss of yardage, including sacks.
• Any play that results in a turnover, including tipped passes which are then intercepted.
• Any tackle or tipped pass that leads to a stop on third or fourth down.

Baker led all NFL DB's in this stat with 25 and shockingly 13 of those were pass defeats. So, while turnovers need to increase, his ability to create TFLs and stops on 3rd and 4th downs are something I think most are overlooking.

This isn't everything, but it is something and if I am going to value a statistic...I like the defeats stat as I feel it is generated outside of guessing on assignments yet still hitting an important area of defense.

 

[Chopper0080]

Nearly 3K yards + 17 TDs the past two seasons with me, you, @Krangthebrain @kerouac9 & @Chopper0080 blocking for him lol what

He has been productive...I just don't like paying RBs.

 

[BritCard]

He has been productive...I just don't like paying RBs.

I think 12m is a steal for Mixon. They criminally under use him in the passing game too.

 

[MadCardDisease]

His coverage grade was still a D from PFF, his 54% success rate was 32nd among DBs, and his 9.0 Adjusted Yards allowed was 56th among DBs.

The player ratings from PFF are crap.

Here is their take on Swearinger when the Cardinals claimed him last year:

PFF ARZ Cardinals‏@PFF_Cardinals
New #AZCardinals safety D.J. Swearinger has earned a 79.8 overall grade this year, which is the 10th highest grade in the NFL. He has only allowed a 67.1 passer rating when targeted, the 9th best among safeties.
​

Swearinger's was so bad in coverage last season he got released after just 4 games. He was burnt out there on nearly every play and yet PFF called him the 9th best coverage safety in the NFL when the Cardinals signed him. PPF ratings make no sense.

 

[Chopper0080]

I think 12m is a steal for Mixon. They criminally under use him in the passing game too.

I am not paying a RB 12 mil unless it is under the franchise tag.

 

[cardncubfan]

Some of those analytics I will have to look into as I am not familiar with them. I know you aren't a PFF thumper but I will still point out that PFF guesses on coverage assignments in a similar way to their OL blocking analysis.

One area that Baker led the NFL in last year was in defeats by safeties. A "defeat" is a stat used by FootballOutsiders to catalog

• A tackle that results in a loss of yardage, including sacks.
• Any play that results in a turnover, including tipped passes which are then intercepted.
• Any tackle or tipped pass that leads to a stop on third or fourth down.

Baker led all NFL DB's in this stat with 25 and shockingly 13 of those were pass defeats. So, while turnovers need to increase, his ability to create TFLs and stops on 3rd and 4th downs are something I think most are overlooking.

This isn't everything, but it is something and if I am going to value a statistic...I like the defeats stat as I feel it is generated outside of guessing on assignments yet still hitting an important area of defense.

These would/could be game changing plays no?

 

[dreamcastrocks]

LOL me thinks you are forgetting how epically bad Steve Wilks coaching staff was.

Chandler Jones still excelled in it. If you expect to be one of the highest paid players in the league, more should be/is expected of you.

 

[BritCard]

Chandler Jones still excelled in it. If you expect to be one of the highest paid players in the league, more should be/is expected of you.

He only had 13 sacks compared to 16 before and 19 after. I wouldn't say he excelled.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I think Budda Baker is a good player who is still getting better who has warts. He's not perfect.

This

I personally think that BB is a top 10 safety in the league. While he signed a contract that "technically" makes him the highest paid safety you have to look at the first 3 years of his contract:

Over the next 3 years Budda will make an average of $8M per year.


Then you look at the other safeties who have long term contracts over the next few years:

The 2 years remaining on the Mathieu's contract will average $18M per year.

Over the next 3 years Landon Collins will average $15.9M per year

Over the next 3 years Kevin Byard will average $13.2M per year

Over the next 3 years Lamarcus Joyner will average $10.6M per year

Over the next 3 years Adrian Amos will average $10.1M per year

Over the next 3 years Eddie Jackson will average $9.53M per year

Even this doesn't paint the entire picture of the cyclical nature of an NFL contract. All of what you said is true, but it is more impactful IMO to state this:

In three years, Budda wont be among the top 5 to 7 players (maybe even 10) at his position, and will have a contract either at or below the Franchise tag value for his position. All that with roughly two years left to go on the deal.

 

[Krangodnzr]

This



Even this doesn't paint the entire picture of the cyclical nature of an NFL contract. All of what you said is true, but it is more impactful IMO to state this:

In three years, Budda wont be among the top 5 to 7 players (maybe even 10) at his position, and will have a contract either at or below the Franchise tag value for his position. All that with roughly two years left to go on the deal.

Reminds me of when Jimmy G signed his contract with the 9ers. Sure there was sticker shock, but once other QBs signed, it's now a fairly moderate contract.

I expect Jamal Adams' contract to be very contentious. Seattle doesn't like to pay players huge contracts outside of Russell, and he is going to want HUGE money, north of $20m.