Calling my shot: Rubio Will be a PHX Sun

[HooverDam]

It depends on how realistic that potential is. If you had a choice between a 99% Mutombo and a 0.0001% superstar, obviously you'd go with the (almost) safe bet. This case isn't as skewed, but I'm very skeptical about Rubio, again based only on what I've read. Part of the reason he has so much "potential" is that very few NBA executives know much about him. Rubio is a bigger mystery, but that doesn't necessarily mean he has a higher ceiling.

I was pretty impressed w/ Rubio in the Olympics considering his age, I think his potential is very real. I disagree with your assertion that NBA execs dont know much about him. From what Ive read (and the evidence seems to corroborate this) NBA teams are doing a much better job w/ Euro scouting since the Darko debacle.

 

[cly2tw]

Time and again, playoffs prove that you really need at least a dominant scorer to have a chance at the title. Only exception in recent history was Pistons with 4 equally proficient scorers and one of them, Billups, exploded in the finals. And the Lakers team of Fab4 imploded on themselves amidst internal fight for alpha male position. At least, you gotta need a Pierce, TD, or Parker kind of scoring threat.

Amare is the closest to that Suns could comtemplate building around, as of now. Rubio, Deng, Butler, Tyrus Thomas, even Gay wouldn't fit the bill of a first-banana scoring threat. Maybe some injury assessment would make it the best decision to move Amare for garbages, but otherwise, those talks are just plain insane.

 

[elindholm]

Rubio, Deng, Butler, Tyrus Thomas, even Gay wouldn't fit the bill of a first-banana scoring threat.

No, they wouldn't. But there are other ways to get a primary scorer. Locking up Stoudemire for $20 million per year, while he gives up as many points as he scores, pretty much guarantees that the Suns won't have any means to go after the leaders they need. Get some solid supporting talent while retaining flexibility, and who knows what opportunity might come knocking in another two or three years.

 

[cly2tw]

No, they wouldn't. But there are other ways to get a primary scorer. Locking up Stoudemire for $20 million per year, while he gives up as many points as he scores, pretty much guarantees that the Suns won't have any means to go after the leaders they need. Get some solid supporting talent while retaining flexibility, and who knows what opportunity might come knocking in another two or three years.

You know the cap is at about 57mi, right? A young leader, if you could sign him as FA requires probably less than 15mil cap. What's your alternative vision to get 2 max level players with all the cap you have? Or, are you ready to go Clippers, Hawks, Bulls route of rebuilding via drafts? Then it'd take very long to be relevant again, so much so that it would not matter anyway if you let Amare walk next year without compensation. But then, you don't want to just dump him in fear of paying him 20mil per. If he is to get such a deal next off season from some team, he is to worth a lot more than the garbages that have been circulating around on div. disc. boards.

 

[elindholm]

You know the cap is at about 57mi, right? A young leader, if you could sign him as FA requires probably less than 15mil cap. What's your alternative vision to get 2 max level players with all the cap you have?

Obviously the Suns aren't going to have their new franchise player this summer. It won't be Stoudemire, and it won't be anyone they draft or get in a trade.

I'm talking about later. If the Suns don't take on any big contracts, they'll have room for a max FA (or very close) in both the summer of 2010 -- and that's if Stoudemire keeps his option year -- and the summer of 2011. I've already made a list of which players will be available in those summers, and there are some pretty big names on it. Can Phoenix recruit one? It seems unlikely, but it's a better chance than hitching themselves to Stoudemire's myopic train to nowhere.

Or, are you ready to go Clippers, Hawks, Bulls route of rebuilding via drafts?

With the way the Suns have drafted recently, hell no.

If he is to get such a deal next off season from some team, he is to worth a lot more than the garbages that have been circulating around on div. disc. boards.

That's true. If the Suns can't get a decent deal for Stoudemire, they might as well keep him until his contract runs out. There are a lot worse things out there than having extra money to spend.

Barring a completely unforseeable miracle, there's simply no way the Suns can be contenders within the next four years. We have to think longer-term.

 

[cly2tw]

Obviously the Suns aren't going to have their new franchise player this summer. It won't be Stoudemire, and it won't be anyone they draft or get in a trade.

I'm talking about later. If the Suns don't take on any big contracts, they'll have room for a max FA (or very close) in both the summer of 2010 -- and that's if Stoudemire keeps his option year -- and the summer of 2011. I've already made a list of which players will be available in those summers, and there are some pretty big names on it. Can Phoenix recruit one? It seems unlikely, but it's a better chance than hitching themselves to Stoudemire's myopic train to nowhere.

Barring a completely unforseeable miracle, there's simply no way the Suns can be contenders within the next four years. We have to think longer-term.

Long term, it's my whole point too. I'm not saying Amare has to be it. But dumping him for not really much is myopic. Despite all his deficiencies, he could be among the best perceivable 2nd banana, barring health issues.

I don't know who might be available in 2011. But it's the time when JRich and LB's contracts also expire. Unlike many, I'm just not opposed to having Amare take say 18 mil of the cap and looking to add another max player. I'm definitely against having say Deng and TyrusThomas/Heinrich take about 20 mil cap to start the rebuilding.

 

[elindholm]

Despite all his deficiencies, he could be among the best perceivable 2nd banana, barring health issues.

I'm not sure what "perceivable" means in this context, but in any case, the health issues are real.

But (2011 is) the time when JRich and LB's contracts also expire.

Richardson will be long gone after that summer, if not before then. Barbosa has an option year for 2011-12, which he will probably take unless the Suns have already extended him.

I'm definitely against having say Deng and TyrusThomas/Heinrich take about 20 mil cap to start the rebuilding.

I think Deng is almost -- not quite, but almost -- as likely to be a first-rank second banana as Stoudemire in four years. But even so, I agree that that package doesn't sound very appealing.

 

[Ollie]

With the economy tanking, the salary cap will go down next year and probably the year after, dragging down the luxury tax threshold and impacting the value of max deals.

If you add the possibility of a lockout in 2011, the better thing to do right now is to trade your expiring contracts for picks and to get rid of any bad contract you have left asap. Somewhere, Grizzlies fans are laughing.

 

[arwillan]

I see picking up Rubio as somewhat realistic, actually. Fegan (Rubio's agent) has already said he'll throw a fit if Rubio is drafted by Memphis, similar to what happened with Yi when he was drafted. Thabeet isn't something Memphis really wants, though he does have endless potential. Gasol has proven to be rather servicable for them. Harden is certainly worth a look at number 2, but they've already got Mayo at the 2 and a decent Pg with Conley.
Because of all that, I see Memphis making their pick available. I'm not sure what package they'd want from us for the pick, though. Other teams out there might be able to offer more. New York and Fegan would probably both love to have Rubio in a Knicks uniform. They could offer their pick and a filler of some sort for the second pick

 

[arwillan]

RealGM says that the Knicks are going to work out Rubio in case they can move up for him. There's also an article about Thabeet not wanting to play for Memphis, making them more likely to trade that pick.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I see picking up Rubio as somewhat realistic, actually. Fegan (Rubio's agent) has already said he'll throw a fit if Rubio is drafted by Memphis, similar to what happened with Yi when he was drafted. Thabeet isn't something Memphis really wants, though he does have endless potential. Gasol has proven to be rather servicable for them. Harden is certainly worth a look at number 2, but they've already got Mayo at the 2 and a decent Pg with Conley.
Because of all that, I see Memphis making their pick available. I'm not sure what package they'd want from us for the pick, though. Other teams out there might be able to offer more. New York and Fegan would probably both love to have Rubio in a Knicks uniform. They could offer their pick and a filler of some sort for the second pick

We have nothing to offer them. Barbosa is about it, and they already have Gay.

 

[arwillan]

We have nothing to offer them. Barbosa is about it, and they already have Gay.

Gay is nothing like Barbosa. Barbosa is a small SG, Gay is a big SF. Anyway i agree we don't have much to offer them at this point outside of the obvious (Amare).

 

[elindholm]

Anyway i agree we don't have much to offer them at this point outside of the obvious (Amare).

...who they apparently don't want, since every previous attempt to unload Stoudemire onto Memphis has whiffed.

 

[arwillan]

...who they apparently don't want, since every previous attempt to unload Stoudemire onto Memphis has whiffed.

I hadn't heard of any of this, but I can't see a reason they wouldn't want amare. Their PG spot is decent, Mayo is a stud at SG, Gay is a great player at the 3, and Gasol is holding down the center spot pretty well. A PF and real offensive threat to round out their system would work wonders, I'd imagine.

 

[dodie53]

C - M. Gasol
PF - Amare
SF - Gay
SG - Mayo
PG - Conley

cool line up.

 

[mojorizen7]

C - M. Gasol
PF - Amare
SF - Gay
SG - Mayo
PG - Conley

cool line up.

Defensively challenged but fun to watch no doubt