Cardinals : AJ green signed
- Thread starter Ronin
- Start date
I don’t get the Marvin Jones love around here either.... He’s hardly young already had 8 years in the league. While productive he could fall off the cliff at any point as well. Health wise and production wise. Yet people here wanna sign him right up....
Well could fall off the cliff is better than already have fallen off the cliff.
so what’s that make his cap hit
3.5 million
The thing you have to ask yourself is which Green are we getting. The one that averaged close to 15 yds. per reception prior to 2019 or the one that averaged 11 yds. per reception in 2020. Is his low YPR because of how he was used in the 2020 offense or was it because his talent has decayed to the point where he can't get after it anymore? If he can regain his 2018 and before level then we have two number ones on the team. If he can't then he is a serviceable vet who can get some first downs and is maybe is a bit better than Fitz was in 2020.
Cardsfan77
Hall of Famer
- Joined
- May 1, 2015
- Posts
- 1,217
- Reaction score
- 1,651
Awesome signing. It’s going to be fun revisiting this thread throughout the year to see the haters eating crow. From the culprit himself -
“Burrow - the consummate professional and leader - came out and took the blame for Green’s poor showing against the Cleveland Browns, saying:
They started playing more two-high. He was playing well at the beginning of the game... I missed some throws to A.J. again. I am just going to have to fix that. I can’t keep missing throws to A.J. when he gets open like he does.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ci...-green-bengals-news-podcast-eagles-nfl-week-3
Excited to see what being highly motivated, having an excellent boundary and better deep ball thrower, full offseason with new QB, as well as no longer drawing CB1s will equate to!
“Burrow - the consummate professional and leader - came out and took the blame for Green’s poor showing against the Cleveland Browns, saying:
They started playing more two-high. He was playing well at the beginning of the game... I missed some throws to A.J. again. I am just going to have to fix that. I can’t keep missing throws to A.J. when he gets open like he does.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ci...-green-bengals-news-podcast-eagles-nfl-week-3
Excited to see what being highly motivated, having an excellent boundary and better deep ball thrower, full offseason with new QB, as well as no longer drawing CB1s will equate to!
Ouchie-Z-Clown
I'm better than Mulli!
I hope he’s all you expect.
Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
This business about Green being too old is silly. Here’s a few numbers from 33 year old receivers
Jerry Rice 122 1848
Terrell Owens 85 1180
Larry Fitzgerald 107 1023
Tim Brown 90 1344
Steve Smith 73 1174
Marvin Harrison 82 1146
33 is not old for savvy wide receivers. Green will be a solid acquisition.
Jerry Rice 122 1848
Terrell Owens 85 1180
Larry Fitzgerald 107 1023
Tim Brown 90 1344
Steve Smith 73 1174
Marvin Harrison 82 1146
33 is not old for savvy wide receivers. Green will be a solid acquisition.
Ouchie-Z-Clown
I'm better than Mulli!
Now show us their prior two seasons.
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2003
- Posts
- 91,471
- Reaction score
- 68,716
It’s not just that he’s old. he’s old and has been breaking down, while not Being good since 2017. Guys don’t get healthier as they age. Injuries usually on,y get more prevalent, especially for guys who have already shown that.
also, Can you show me any of those guys above being either injured or awful for 3 straight years before a major resurgence.
Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Jerry Rice 122 1848
98 1503
112 1499
Terrell Owens 85 1180
77 1200
47 763 (hurt 7 games)
Larry Fitzgerald 107 1023
63 784
109 1200
Tim Brown 90 1344
104. 1408
81 1012
Steve Smith 73 1174
46 554 (only poor year)
79 1394
Marvin Harrison 82 1146
94 1274
86 1113
Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Green was hurt in 2018, playing only 9 games. His yards would have been over 1200 in a full season. He averaged 15.1 yards a catch.
2019. He was on IR
2020. Bengals signed him for $18.2 franchise tag
Writing this guy off is a mistake. IMO he will have a solid year and exceed the contract value. The numbers I posted earlier indicate this level of receiver does not typically fade at this point. 2020 is a toss out. If he passes his physical (I’m sure he will) he will be an impact player.
2019. He was on IR
2020. Bengals signed him for $18.2 franchise tag
Writing this guy off is a mistake. IMO he will have a solid year and exceed the contract value. The numbers I posted earlier indicate this level of receiver does not typically fade at this point. 2020 is a toss out. If he passes his physical (I’m sure he will) he will be an impact player.
Proximo
ASFN Icon
- Joined
- Mar 8, 2015
- Posts
- 12,717
- Reaction score
- 10,617
Why is 2020 a toss out? Because you want it to be? He looks slow on tape, and is not getting separation.
I don't think he is going to get his speed back. Not to say he will be 100% worthless, he can probably give us what Fitz did last year - but that's not good enough.
Ouchie-Z-Clown
I'm better than Mulli!
Yeah none of those look very similar to AJ’s preceding two seasons.
Ouchie-Z-Clown
I'm better than Mulli!
Ouchie-Z-Clown
I'm better than Mulli!
2020 is not a “toss out.” No offense to Harry, but with all the bad takes about AJ sucking in 2020 (he wasn’t playing hard, his rookie QB threw all his bad passes to AJ while making his other two wrs productive) Harry’s blanket “throw it away” is the worst.
- Joined
- Jan 2, 2003
- Posts
- 91,471
- Reaction score
- 68,716
Is this supposed to boost or destroy the case you’re trying to make? Steve Smith is the only guy who’s numbers look even REMOTELY like Green’s.
Ouchie-Z-Clown
I'm better than Mulli!
I asked him to post it. Imo it confirms that those comps were pretty bad ones. Harry’s argument about age has a major failure in that it solely focuses on one factor when we have multiple relevant reactors at our fingertips. To base an argument solely in age when (a) no one has denigrated the signing based solely in age; and (b) injuries and full season decline stats are also available is a failing proposition.
so considering we know AJ’s recent play, I challenge someone to find us comps where the player was a top flight receiver (doesn’t even need be HOFer to open the data), where they had comps to:
33 entering season
Last season: 16 games/47 rec/523yds/2td
Prior season: none - lower body injury
Two seasons prior: 46/694/6 7 missed due to lower body injury
Three seasons prior: 75/1078/8
four seasons of data paints a pretty full picture. Find me someone that has similar: acceptable season, injury shortened acceptable season, fully missed season, awful season - who then sprang back at age 33 to at least an acceptable season. I’m venturing to guess if they exist they are few and far between.
Harry
ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
If I still had a staff, I’d get them right on this. My post was designed for making one point, quality receivers are not finished at 33. I posted the additional years because of they were requested. I expect AJ to secure 70+ receptions and to exceed 1000 yards. The Bengals are not the sharpest knives in the drawer, but they were in position to best evaluate AJ when they tagged him. My other point is the on-field disorganization and play design was not favorable to AJ’s skill set, let alone his motivation. He will be motivated in AZ. He’ll likely be exclusively outside, where he excels. The physical should have shown any lingering impact from previous injuries.
Since none of us can see the future I suppose we will find the season resolves our differences.
juza76
ASFN Icon
Thats an important stat
I thought Burrow was an accurate qb, maybe they werent just in sync
Krangodnzr
Captain of Team Conner
Yeah that YouTube video where the Bengals fan breaks down "What's wrong with AJ Green" completely demonstrated that.
And the Darksiders don't want to consider that maybe, just maybe, Joe Burrow for some reason pretty much just threw crap at AJ. Stats and eyeballs back it up.
Stout
Hold onto the ball, Murray!
And the kool-aid camp just can't concede that signing an old, very recently broken, and hasn't played well in quite a while WR when we needed speed and youth at the position is by far not a lock, certainty, or even strong likelihood for success. Like, why should ANYONE not LURVE that signing?
All that aside. It's a $6m contract (Only $8.5m is he actually plays well and hits incentives).
$6m is Willie Snead money. It's Danny Amendola money. It's Cordarelle Paterson money.
It's practically impossible to under perform that contract.
I can only imagine that some here are being distracted by the Marvin Jones deal for a little more. It's not like Jones is a spring chicken. He's 31 and he has one 1000 yard season.
He's a good player, but that one deal doesn't make the Greene signing a bad deal.
Similar threads
