Cardinals at Lions gameday thread 12-19-2021

[Chopper0080]

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Wow!

I know spouses are generally off limits but if you go at someone be ready for them to come back at you.

 

[slanidrac16]

Dunning Kruger is your middle name.

If the odds of getting 2 onside kicks are that big, and they are, what exactly do you think the odds are of making the two to make it 27-14, then not get the onside kick and hold them to a FG, then go down to score, get the 2 point conversion again, get the onside kick, go down and score another TD and get the 2 point conversion AGAIN? and do all that in 2:46 seconds which is how much time there was after they kicked the FG?

The 2 point conversion rate in the NFL is 48%, the odds of doing that THREE times AND getting an onside kick are astronomical.

To have any chance to win there you kick the XP, and hope you get the onside kick and score again. then depending on time you might not even have to do the onside kick if you get it on the right side of teh 2 minute warning.

If you don't get the onside kick you're just not going to win you won't have enough time to get 2 more TD's and 2 point conversions in 2:46 seconds which is what the clock was when they kicked that FG.

The odds were overwhelmingly against us winning at that point, going for 2 because you might give up a FG is just not some brilliant play as you seem to think it is.

I agree, however I wouldn’t have tried the onside kick with 4:40 left. With the score being 27-13( should have been) you kick away and put it on your defense to get a 3 and out while using your time outs. You may get the ball back with 3:40 left. Score again and it makes it 27-20. NOW you try the onside kick.

 

[wit3card]

When you have to kick multiple onside kicks, is it more likely that you're going to recover them both OR that you can get 2pt conversions, recover 1, and give up a FG on the other? I don't know the statistics for sure, but I'd bet on the latter.

It doesn't bother me that people didn't see the obscure scenario AZ was accounting for.....it's the arrogance in ignorance. (ie. Dunning-Kruger Effect) Disagree with the decision, fine, but the coaching staff isn't stupid for accounting for a scenario no one here was considering.

There is no obscure scenario ... 21 back. 8 points cuts it to 13 another 8 to 5 you still need a TD and if they make a FG you need another TD +2PT convorsion. The probability to score 3 2pt is slim to none. getting the ball after the FG and getting in FG range way bigger.

This was a decision by people that are in the "I'm so smarter than you and you can't see it!" area. So full in the culprit of a Dunning-Kruger Effect. They don't account for opponent, all the variables and so on. Extrapoint has around 96% 2 point just around 30% or 40% so even a long FG attemp has a better chance. And than the most crucial miss of the analytics of this and many other teams, is momentum. The not FG was a huge momentum boost for Lions. Scoring 3 would put the momentum at rest but not switching it. This kind of "analytics" is left out on too many of them and what that does to you was shown by the chargers. And our team today as well...

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I know spouses are generally off limits but if you go at someone be ready for them to come back at you.

“Go at” someone? He’s a sports reporter saying he wouldn’t sign an athlete. That DOES NOT green light someone going after your wife. Shame on jones. His tweet was lame and frankly offensive.