Combine Assessments: QBs

Mitch

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Cam Newton: what a physical specimen he is, as we all know. Love his over the top release. As we all saw...his errant shorter throws were the result of slow and sloppy footwork. I am sure he will correct this...however, this is why Newton is going to need time, being almost exlusively a spread shotgun QB and not having to work previously on the standard pro style footwork---3 to 5 to 7 step drops. Plus, he will need to work diligently on his ballhandling. He is not anywhere near NFL ready---which is a frustration for teams that want to tag him in the top ten picks.

The perfect scenario for him, imo, would be to go to Buffalo, where he can play behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for a year, while he hones his skills and assimilates into their system and the speed of the NFL.

While the inaccuracy on the short routes did not concern me much---I was happy to see him participating---and he looked like he was soaking in the experience and enjoying himself---he seems like a great kid---and that's what we need to remind ourselves---he is just that: a starry-eyed kid.

Christian Ponder: The most polished thrower of the group---which doesn't surprise me. What concerns me is how often he and his offense squandered drives at FSU, especially surrounded by all that premier talent. I am not sure what to make of it. Something seems awry. And he had a very good OC (turned HC) in Jimbo Fisher. In some ways he reminds me of a more polished version of Charlie Whitehurst---big arm---physically strong---but not the kind of finisher of drives that you would expect. But---there's no question he is having a very strong post-season, and his decision to go ahead and throw yesterday improved his stock even further---he now may not be on the board when the Cardinals pick at #38. I envision the Seahawks thinking long and hard about him at #25. If Buffalo does not take a QB at #3...look for them to hop on Ponder early in round two.

Blaine Gabbert: It was disappointing that he---because of his agent's advice---chose not to throw...especially when all the other QBs elected to. I think this hurt him some---because I think he is one of the more over-hyped players in this draft...and a great deal has to do with this being a supbar group of QB prospects....so the pundits have to hype someone---AND---following this Super Bowl, every team is drooling about the chances of acquiring their own version of Aaron Rodgers.

In this draft there are no Aaron Rodgerses. The closest talent-wise is Cam Newton---and if Cam Newton could spend his first three years playing behind a HOF QB and sharpening his skills---look out.

Gabbert will probably look very good (in comparison to most of the others) on his Pro Day---but---and this is the thing people sometimes forget---throwing passes in shorts under no duress doesn't mean much at all. Throwing a pinpoint out pass on 3rd and 4 with a rusher bearing in on you does. This is the area that concerns me about Gabbert---his percentages in 3rd down situations were not good at Mizzou...and he is going to need the right coach and the right sysytem to help him turn this corner. I hate to say it but I think the best scenario for him would be landing in SF with Jim Harbaugh and sitting a couple of years behind Alex Smith. The West Coast offense is a good fit for him.

Jake Locker: The combination of physical skills this young man possesses is so attractive, some coach---and I think it may be Mike Shanahan---will believe he can coach Locker up and turn him into a Pro Bowl QB.

Shanahan has said that Locker reminds him in some ways of Jake Plummer. Maybe with Locker's propensity to bolt from the pocket, but Locker has a much stronger arm than Jake's.

I thought his sound bites and the combine were outstanding. What a great great kid he is. Takes nothing for granted. Has it all in perspective. Despite his drop in stock from last year, he is truly savoring the experience and gathering himself in the process. I thought the humble way he responded to the questions about his lack of accuracy showed great maturity and class on his part. He made no excuses. He instead is choosing to look to the present and future. He won me over---if the Cardinals take him at #38, I will be happy and very intrigued. However, I think he will be taken as early as #10 (Washington)...quite possibly at #25 (Seattle) and I would not be surprised if he goes at #33 (Patriots). Imagine what getting tutored by Tom Brady could do for this kid's approch to the game and his confidence moving forward.

Colin Kaepernick. Has the strongest arm of the group---59 mph. Of course, he throws a baseball in the 90s, so it's not that surprising. Plus, he ran a slick 40. This is why he will be a late first, early second round pick. He comes from a funky offensive system---where he was taking snpas exclusively from the shotgun---and he needs to shorten his delivery---which will take time. Again, I could see the Patriots being interested in him with one of their first three to four picks. Knowing them, they will use Kaepernick at WR while they are helping him hone his QB skills at the #3 QB.

Talk about great kids---this kid was adopted---he is so grateful to his his adoptive parents---and get this---there were times at Nevada where HC Chris Ault was so hard on Kaepernick that any normal young QB under such constant scrutiny and badgering would have quit and asked for a transfer. But, Kaepernick is tough---more tough than people realize. Did you see the second half he played versus Boise St.? Well, 4 years of Ault's badgering paid off in the biggest game in the history of Nevada football, because Kaepernick---despite playing with temps in the teens---delivered repeatedly when he had to---including an incredibly clutch 4th and goal out pass TD to his left that he threw on the money to tie the game with about a minute left.

The team I would expect to go after him hard is Oakland. He fits their style. Oakland does not have a first round pick...but I could see them making a deal to move up into the early portion of round two to take him.

Greg McElroy: he ran a good time in the 40...could not throw because of the broken bone in his hand that he suffered at the Senior Bowl...but he made sure the doctors arranged his cast so he could still write. Good decision there because he scored a 48 out of 50 on the Wonderlic. Wow.

As you all know by now, I think McElroy is the best fit for the Cardinals. We already have the big, strong-armed young QB in John Skelton...what we need Skelton to become is efficient---and that's the thing about McElroy---this kid is extremely efficient in his approach, in his mechanics and in his desire to win. Plus, he's one tough kid. Warner-esque in that department, imo.

If you want my thoughts on any of the other QBs, please let me know.

As always I am interested in your thoughts.
 
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az jam

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Mitch, you forgot Ryan Mallett. Would like your thoughts on him as many feel he is dropping to the 2nd round.

I like Christian Ponder and think he will be there when we pick in round 2 but would the Cards take him???
 

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I'm with you Mitch. Let's take McElroy in the 4th if he's there. Pass rusher in the 1st. OL/ILB in the 2nd and 3rd, McElroy in the 4th, BPA rest of the draft.
 
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Mitch

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Mitch, you forgot Ryan Mallett. Would like your thoughts on him as many feel he is dropping to the 2nd round.

I like Christian Ponder and think he will be there when we pick in round 2 but would the Cards take him???

Good call, jammer. Sorry about that.

Ryan Mallett: The Big Ben of this draft in terms of immaturity, but alas not nearly in terms of on the field toughness. However, man oh man, can this kid throw the heck out of the football. He has an awesome arm and great height in the pocket. But...he can't command the pocket because he's skitterish. Not sure if that will ever change. In some ways he reminds me of Dan McGuire---Mark McGuire's brother---who came into the NFL with one of the best arms, but never got on track because he could never command the pocket and he was a sitting duck.

What Mallett needs, imo, is to get drafted by a team of tough sobs like the Steelers or the Ravens...where the expectation is to be tough or go home. If he goes to a more finesse team, he will fail miserably, because he will revert to bad habits and get pounded.

What a pure talent like Mallett reminds everyone is how important it is for NFL QBs to have the sixth sense of sensing where pressure is coming from and the feet to simply scoot into open areas to create passing lanes (a la Tom Brady, who may be the best I've ever seen at it). Brady isn't swift, neither is Drew Brees...but they know how to buy time...and that's the key. If this kid ever learns how to buy time and how to toughen up his approach to the game, he could be a lights-out QB.

That said, I do not see him meshing with Whiz. Just can't see it. I don't think the Cardinals will even consider him wherever and whenever they pick....no matter what the round.

John Skelton has a similarly impressive arm, and he's more mobile than Mallett and considerably tougher.
 

Rats

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If you do not take a Qb in the 1st or 2nd rd don't bother because we already have one in Skelton who may be good. A 2nd on Mallet or Locker and Von Miller with our 1st pick would be a great start to the Draft. I still say your wrong Mitch about Gabbert. His only negative is that he came out a year earlier than he should. That is it. He has all of the tools for the NFL. Doesn't anyone listen when nearly everyone says that he is the top Qb before and after the interviews and grease board chalktalk with the NFL scouts and coaches? He will throw and he will be a top 5 pick( probably Cincy). I would love to get him but would rather fill 2 needs. BPA at 5 and get a 2nd round Qb.
 

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Blaine Gabbert: It was disappointing that he---because of his agent's advice---chose not to throw...especially when all the other QBs elected to. I think this hurt him some---because I think he is one of the more over-hyped players in this draft...and a great deal has to do with this being a supbar group of QB prospects....so the pundits have to hype someone---AND---following this Super Bowl, every team is drooling about the chances of acquiring their own version of Aaron Rodgers.

Let's not pretend like not competing at the combine is going to hurt anyone. Bradford didn't compete, he still went first. Matt Stafford didn't compete, he still went first. Peyton Manning didn't compete, he still went first.
 

az jam

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Good call, jammer. Sorry about that.

Ryan Mallett:


That said, I do not see him meshing with Whiz. Just can't see it. I don't think the Cardinals will even consider him wherever and whenever they pick....no matter what the round.

Mitch, thanks for the update on Mallett. Meshing with Whiz is very, very critical. Leinart didn't. Whiz just recently said that he thinks it is very important for a qb to spend lots of time studying film, game plans, etc. That is why he likes Max Hall. Newton would never be the pick here. It could be Ponder. I don't think he would reach for Gaberrt but perhaps you are right on McElroy in a later round. He wants a qb that is smart and totally committed.
(Of course they also must have the physical skills)
I think that the interviews that the Cards had behind closed doors in the Combine are very critical to the decision process on what qb they will draft.
 
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Mitch

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I'm with you Mitch. Let's take McElroy in the 4th if he's there. Pass rusher in the 1st. OL/ILB in the 2nd and 3rd, McElroy in the 4th, BPA rest of the draft.

I am all over your projection, Dew. I worry, however, that teams will see in McElroy what we are seeing and that he won't be available to us at #102. I think if we want him badly enough we have to take him at #69...provided he's there then.
 
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Mitch

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Let's not pretend like not competing at the combine is going to hurt anyone. Bradford didn't compete, he still went first. Matt Stafford didn't compete, he still went first. Peyton Manning didn't compete, he still went first.

All great examples...except that do you really think, azspfn, that Gabbert belongs in the discussion with the likes of Bradford, Stafford and Manning?

I question that---especially when you look at how clutch those QBs were in pressure situations in college, whereas Gabbert was so-so.
 
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Mitch

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If you do not take a Qb in the 1st or 2nd rd don't bother because we already have one in Skelton who may be good. A 2nd on Mallet or Locker and Von Miller with our 1st pick would be a great start to the Draft. I still say your wrong Mitch about Gabbert. His only negative is that he came out a year earlier than he should. That is it. He has all of the tools for the NFL. Doesn't anyone listen when nearly everyone says that he is the top Qb before and after the interviews and grease board chalktalk with the NFL scouts and coaches? He will throw and he will be a top 5 pick( probably Cincy). I would love to get him but would rather fill 2 needs. BPA at 5 and get a 2nd round Qb.

Rats, my friend, please make your case as to why Gabbert's ineffectiveness to convert third downs at Mizzou applied only to coming out early.

Hey, Mike Mayock loves Gabbert....but what I think Mayock may be doing here is reaching for a player in a subpar QB draft pool....especially in a year where everyone has been drooling over what a QB like Aaron Rodgers can do for a champion wannabe.

I think Gabbert has talent...there's no question about it...but I rate him as a mid-to-late 2nd round QB talent, not a first. This year it's tough because...did you watch the QBs at the combine yesterday? It was a motley crew. The talent is not striking...not in the least. Therefore, someone needs to be hyped---because QBs always are.
 

Rats

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Let's not pretend like not competing at the combine is going to hurt anyone. Bradford didn't compete, he still went first. Matt Stafford didn't compete, he still went first. Peyton Manning didn't compete, he still went first.

Yeah, but the prognosticators around here claim that Gabbert is not one of these guys, that he is soft, injury prone, that he has to big a learning curve for the NFL,wilts under pressure, and overall not smart enough to adjust. All arguements that were made about Sam Bradford last year and he went #1 overall. I think some just see what they want to see. Is Gabbert perfect. Hell No, but he is a top 10 pick and the best Qb available this year. I do not want to see the Cards draft a project in the 3rd or 4th round. We did that in Skelton and now we need a top shelf guy. Get Alex Smith and take a guy in the 2nd round that can learn behind a vet with Skelton. One will pan out. Don't settle for the 6 or 7th best Qb in the draft. Not this year. Other years you can but not this year.
 

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All great examples...except that do you really think, azspfn, that Gabbert belongs in the discussion with the likes of Bradford, Stafford and Manning?

I question that---especially when you look at how clutch those QBs were in pressure situations in college, whereas Gabbert was so-so.

Talent-wise he obviously doesn't belong in the same discussion with these guys but in terms of being drafted in the same spot without competing at the combine he does.

For top players, regardless of their position, the combine is only about the meeting with teams. Actually doing drills is now meaningless. It is the same as having a pro-day. What do you really learn? Should someone struggle at the combine, i.e. Cam Newton, you hear people say it was because he was throwing to guys he didn't know. At a pro/media day, i.e. Cam Newton, you hear how great this guy is because he completes all his passes. What do you really gain by competing at the combine?
 

Rats

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Mitch, your perceived ineffectiveness on third down is just that. A perception. Alot of plays that got the Mizzou team down the field happened on 1st and 2nd down. It is not like they went down the field and didn't score the last 2 seasons. They put up a pretty good record in a tough Big 12 field. Your assessment of lack of 3rd down effeciency in the 4th qt is something someone else brought up. As I stated then, stats can be made to say anything you want. When a game is in hand you throw less, you take safer passes or you don't throw at all. If a kid does not find a receiver in the 4th Qt when he already has a three touchdown lead it is not something to be that concerned about. First you said he wasn't tough, (which he was) then he has 3rd down problems in the 4th qt, even though they won the lionshare of there games, now he is over hyped because there is no one else. Sorry not buying it. He came out a year early perhaps but he is a NFL Starter quality guy...I say within 2 seasons for Cincy or Buffalo because he is smart, works hard, has topshelf talent, and is willing to learn. He is not a late round talent like you make him out to be. Sorry I do not agree.
 
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The only 2 QB's I'm somewhat intrigued by in theis draft are Kapernick & the kid from Va Tech, which my mind is blank on his name. Kaepernick has some skills & may be Bernie Kosar with mobility. The kid from Va Tech was slow in his dropbacks yesreday & seemed more concerned with completing passes instead of letting it fly. He's short, but has good arm strenth & throws the ball well during games.

I really believe we wont draft a QB this year.

Mitch, looking ahead to 2012...whats your thoughts on GJ Kinnie from Tulsa? I think he's a gunslinger like Favre coming out next year...love this kid for next year!!! Great mobility, very good arm, great #'s & wins.
 
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Mitch

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Mitch, your perceived ineffectiveness on third down is just that. A perception. Alot of plays that got the Mizzou team down the field happened on 1st and 2nd down. It is not like they went down the field and didn't score the last 2 seasons. They put up a pretty good record in a tough Big 12 field. Your assessment of lack of 3rd down effeciency in the 4th qt is something someone else brought up. As I stated then, stats can be made to say anything you want. When a game is in hand you throw less, you take safer passes or you don't throw at all. If a kid does not find a receiver in the 4th Qt when he already has a three touchdown lead it is not something to be that concerned about. First you said he wasn't tough, (which he was) then he has 3rd down problems in the 4th qt, even though they won the lionshare of there games, now he is over hyped because there is no one else. Sorry not bying it. He came out a year early perhaps but he is a NFL Starter quality guy...I say within 2 seasons for Cincy or Buffalo because he is smart, works hard, has topshelf talent, and is willing to learn. He is not a late round talent like you make him out to be. Sorry I do not agree.

It wasn't just 4th quarter 3rd down conversions, it was across the board.

That said...and if you look up the numbers at 3rd and 1-3 yards, 3rd and 4-7 yards and 3rd and 8-10 yards are all well under 50%...it makes you wonder.

But...you are right...the kid has talent and a willingness to learn...no question...

So let me ask you, do you take him over Von Miller at #5?

Furthermore, is Gabbert a head and shoulders better talent than John Skelton?

If you say yes and yes to both questions...I will defer to your wisdom.

As well all know...the draft is a crap shoot. It's all about taking the right player at the right time....and then developing him to be the player you want and need him to be.

If we take Gabbert at #5...I will be hoping that everything you are saying is true and that he will be a great fit for us.

I will remember this Rats and credit you for it, man.
 

Crazy Canuck

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The only 2 QB's I'm somewhat intrigued by in theis draft are Kapernick & the kid from Va Tech, which my mind is blank on his name. Kaepernick has some skills & may be Bernie Kosar with mobility. The kid from Va Tech was slow in his dropbacks yesreday & seemed more concerned with completing passes instead of letting it fly. He's short, but has good arm strenth & throws the ball well during games.

I really believe we wont draft a QB this year.

Mitch, looking ahead to 2012...whats your thoughts on GJ Kinnie from Tulsa? I think he's a gunslinger like Favre coming out next year...love this kid for next year!!! Great mobility, very good arm, great #'s & wins.

Bernie Kosar and mobility in the same sentence... :confused:
 

Rats

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I would take him over Miller as Millers size worries me. However, I would like to get the most value at the top of the draft. I do not think we can get a Miller value at the top of the second round but we can get Locker or Mallet in the 2nd which would be a greater value with Miller or Quinn with our #1.
Gabbert and best LB would not get it done for our first 2 picks. However, Miller and Mallett would be really a great start to our draft. I do not believe Gabberts talent out weighs getting the best player available in both rounds. We would be rolling the dice to wait for our need at the top of the 2nd round IMO. Still hope Gabbert goes top 5 so SF doesn't get him and he kicks our tail for several years to come.
I believe he is better than Skelton will be. If he goes to Sf. I hope I am wrong.
 

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I am all over your projection, Dew. I worry, however, that teams will see in McElroy what we are seeing and that he won't be available to us at #102. I think if we want him badly enough we have to take him at #69...provided he's there then.

I worry about that too, however, drafts seem to consistently have a dry spell of QBs being taken in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I think it's that teams know they are taking a back-up who isn't going to play any time soon outside of the first round, so they prioritize positions that are actually likely to contribute.

Comparing recent drafts you see that
2010:
4 in 1st 3 rounds, 10 in the last 4 rounds
2009:
4 and 7
2008:
5 and 8
2007:
6 and 4
2006:
7 and 4
2005:
6 and 7
2004:
5 and 13
2003:
6 and 7
2002:
4 and 11


From this, I think it's safe to say that if McElroy isn't one of the first 5 or 6 QBs taken, he will be there in the 4th.

I see Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Kaeperneck, Ponder all as locks to go before him. Mallet I think will too but he is falling fast and there are a few other guys who could go before him.
 

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Imo Mallet is the top qb in the draft followed by Kaepernick. Both these guys are leaders, great arms, and they have brain matter.

I put Mallet up at #1 because he did play in a pro style offense. He did take snaps from the center. He does have the ability to bring his team from behind. Like I said before I rather have The Boston College Left Tackle. If Mallet falls to the Cardinals in the second round by the grace of the football gods, then the cardinals are going to be set at the Qb position for a long time.
 

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It wasn't just 4th quarter 3rd down conversions, it was across the board.

That said...and if you look up the numbers at 3rd and 1-3 yards, 3rd and 4-7 yards and 3rd and 8-10 yards are all well under 50%...it makes you wonder.

From seeing many of Mizzou's games this past season, there were quite a few drops by his receivers. Off the numbers, off the hands. Especially at inopportune times, namely 3rd down. Do any of those stat sites show dropped passes?
 

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I think Gabbert will be way over drafted like Alex Smith was. They say Gabbert did well in the interviews but that doesn't make him a top 5 pick to me. I think Cincy is grabbing him or Newton at 4, which is fine by me.
 

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Rats, my friend, please make your case as to why Gabbert's ineffectiveness to convert third downs at Mizzou applied only to coming out early.

I don't want to put word in his mouth, but he won't be able to do it. When I brought this point up a few weeks ago the response i got from someone was something in the order of "prove it." I don't have time to get into that stuff.
The talking heads as you mentioned, need something to talk about or anoint a star, to come up with some dirt to harp on.

By the way I believe Gabbert's agent is Condon who for the most part grabs the best qb's and does a good job for them including keeping them out of throwing at combine.
 

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Mitch, as you know, I respect your opinons, but in comparing Mallet and Skelton, you said that they have similar arm strength, but that Skelton is much TOUGHER. I hope you're correct, but what do you base that assessment on?
 

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If Locker reminds Shanahan of Plummer, he won't draft Locker. He didn't like Plummer and Plummer didn't like him, he made that very clear.
 

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Mitch, as you know, I respect your opinons, but in comparing Mallet and Skelton, you said that they have similar arm strength, but that Skelton is much TOUGHER. I hope you're correct, but what do you base that assessment on?

He started 4 games for the Cardinals and he's still alive.
 

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