Combine Assessments: QBs

[john h]

Cam Newton: what a physical specimen he is, as we all know. Love his over the top release. As we all saw...his errant shorter throws were the result of slow and sloppy footwork. I am sure he will correct this...however, this is why Newton is going to need time, being almost exlusively a spread shotgun QB and not having to work previously on the standard pro style footwork---3 to 5 to 7 step drops. Plus, he will need to work diligently on his ballhandling. He is not anywhere near NFL ready---which is a frustration for teams that want to tag him in the top ten picks.

The perfect scenario for him, imo, would be to go to Buffalo, where he can play behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for a year, while he hones his skills and assimilates into their system and the speed of the NFL.

While the inaccuracy on the short routes did not concern me much---I was happy to see him participating---and he looked like he was soaking in the experience and enjoying himself---he seems like a great kid---and that's what we need to remind ourselves---he is just that: a starry-eyed kid.

Christian Ponder: The most polished thrower of the group---which doesn't surprise me. What concerns me is how often he and his offense squandered drives at FSU, especially surrounded by all that premier talent. I am not sure what to make of it. Something seems awry. And he had a very good OC (turned HC) in Jimbo Fisher. In some ways he reminds me of a more polished version of Charlie Whitehurst---big arm---physically strong---but not the kind of finisher of drives that you would expect. But---there's no question he is having a very strong post-season, and his decision to go ahead and throw yesterday improved his stock even further---he now may not be on the board when the Cardinals pick at #38. I envision the Seahawks thinking long and hard about him at #25. If Buffalo does not take a QB at #3...look for them to hop on Ponder early in round two.

Blaine Gabbert: It was disappointing that he---because of his agent's advice---chose not to throw...especially when all the other QBs elected to. I think this hurt him some---because I think he is one of the more over-hyped players in this draft...and a great deal has to do with this being a supbar group of QB prospects....so the pundits have to hype someone---AND---following this Super Bowl, every team is drooling about the chances of acquiring their own version of Aaron Rodgers.

In this draft there are no Aaron Rodgerses. The closest talent-wise is Cam Newton---and if Cam Newton could spend his first three years playing behind a HOF QB and sharpening his skills---look out.

Gabbert will probably look very good (in comparison to most of the others) on his Pro Day---but---and this is the thing people sometimes forget---throwing passes in shorts under no duress doesn't mean much at all. Throwing a pinpoint out pass on 3rd and 4 with a rusher bearing in on you does. This is the area that concerns me about Gabbert---his percentages in 3rd down situations were not good at Mizzou...and he is going to need the right coach and the right sysytem to help him turn this corner. I hate to say it but I think the best scenario for him would be landing in SF with Jim Harbaugh and sitting a couple of years behind Alex Smith. The West Coast offense is a good fit for him.

Jake Locker: The combination of physical skills this young man possesses is so attractive, some coach---and I think it may be Mike Shanahan---will believe he can coach Locker up and turn him into a Pro Bowl QB.

Shanahan has said that Locker reminds him in some ways of Jake Plummer. Maybe with Locker's propensity to bolt from the pocket, but Locker has a much stronger arm than Jake's.

I thought his sound bites and the combine were outstanding. What a great great kid he is. Takes nothing for granted. Has it all in perspective. Despite his drop in stock from last year, he is truly savoring the experience and gathering himself in the process. I thought the humble way he responded to the questions about his lack of accuracy showed great maturity and class on his part. He made no excuses. He instead is choosing to look to the present and future. He won me over---if the Cardinals take him at #38, I will be happy and very intrigued. However, I think he will be taken as early as #10 (Washington)...quite possibly at #25 (Seattle) and I would not be surprised if he goes at #33 (Patriots). Imagine what getting tutored by Tom Brady could do for this kid's approch to the game and his confidence moving forward.

Colin Kaepernick. Has the strongest arm of the group---59 mph. Of course, he throws a baseball in the 90s, so it's not that surprising. Plus, he ran a slick 40. This is why he will be a late first, early second round pick. He comes from a funky offensive system---where he was taking snpas exclusively from the shotgun---and he needs to shorten his delivery---which will take time. Again, I could see the Patriots being interested in him with one of their first three to four picks. Knowing them, they will use Kaepernick at WR while they are helping him hone his QB skills at the #3 QB.

Talk about great kids---this kid was adopted---he is so grateful to his his adoptive parents---and get this---there were times at Nevada where HC Chris Ault was so hard on Kaepernick that any normal young QB under such constant scrutiny and badgering would have quit and asked for a transfer. But, Kaepernick is tough---more tough than people realize. Did you see the second half he played versus Boise St.? Well, 4 years of Ault's badgering paid off in the biggest game in the history of Nevada football, because Kaepernick---despite playing with temps in the teens---delivered repeatedly when he had to---including an incredibly clutch 4th and goal out pass TD to his left that he threw on the money to tie the game with about a minute left.

The team I would expect to go after him hard is Oakland. He fits their style. Oakland does not have a first round pick...but I could see them making a deal to move up into the early portion of round two to take him.

Greg McElroy: he ran a good time in the 40...could not throw because of the broken bone in his hand that he suffered at the Senior Bowl...but he made sure the doctors arranged his cast so he could still write. Good decision there because he scored a 48 out of 50 on the Wonderlic. Wow.

As you all know by now, I think McElroy is the best fit for the Cardinals. We already have the big, strong-armed young QB in John Skelton...what we need Skelton to become is efficient---and that's the thing about McElroy---this kid is extremely efficient in his approach, in his mechanics and in his desire to win. Plus, he's one tough kid. Warner-esque in that department, imo.

If you want my thoughts on any of the other QBs, please let me know.

As always I am interested in your thoughts.

How did you miss out on Mallet? From what I have read he was the best QB out there on day one with the best arm for accuracy on the long throws. Mallet will be in the top three QBs taken and maybe higher IMHO.

 

[john h]

Good call, jammer. Sorry about that.

Ryan Mallett: The Big Ben of this draft in terms of immaturity, but alas not nearly in terms of on the field toughness. However, man oh man, can this kid throw the heck out of the football. He has an awesome arm and great height in the pocket. But...he can't command the pocket because he's skitterish. Not sure if that will ever change. In some ways he reminds me of Dan McGuire---Mark McGuire's brother---who came into the NFL with one of the best arms, but never got on track because he could never command the pocket and he was a sitting duck.

What Mallett needs, imo, is to get drafted by a team of tough sobs like the Steelers or the Ravens...where the expectation is to be tough or go home. If he goes to a more finesse team, he will fail miserably, because he will revert to bad habits and get pounded.

What a pure talent like Mallett reminds everyone is how important it is for NFL QBs to have the sixth sense of sensing where pressure is coming from and the feet to simply scoot into open areas to create passing lanes (a la Tom Brady, who may be the best I've ever seen at it). Brady isn't swift, neither is Drew Brees...but they know how to buy time...and that's the key. If this kid ever learns how to buy time and how to toughen up his approach to the game, he could be a lights-out QB.

That said, I do not see him meshing with Whiz. Just can't see it. I don't think the Cardinals will even consider him wherever and whenever they pick....no matter what the round.

John Skelton has a similarly impressive arm, and he's more mobile than Mallett and considerably tougher.

I do not recall Mallet missing any games in the SEC where he took some powerful hits. He got right back up and stood in the pocket until the last second. He played injured when required. He is no softie by any means. As the team leader he would never have been accepted as such if he was not tough. He also has a quick release. From his first year at Arkansas to his second he made tremendous strides under Coach Petrino a former NFL head coach. Coach Petrino thinks he will make it in the NFL. You can be sure many of the NFL teams will talk to Petrino as the NFL coaches all know each other. Someone, maybe not the Cards, are going to have him as there number one pick. He will not slide into round two. I really like McElroy but like him in round 4 not round 2. Even at that he will be a long shot to make a real QBOTF. He is smart enough. He has the background of a winner. Then so did Leinart who has not thrown a ball since he left the Cardinals. Matt had no commitment to football and the coaches saw it and the players saw it. I see McElroy as as excellent long shot to become a winner. Odds are you will find a better QB in round 1 or 2 which is to high to take McElroy IMHO.

 

[Seandonic]

For all of you guys who are saying that the Cards should draft a QB in the 2nd round I'd like to offer this little history lesson. Since 1995 their have been two QB's taken in the 2nd round who produced at a high level. Drew Brees (1st pick of the 2nd round) and Jake Plumber. The rest of them were bust to varying degrees. That's TWO in SIXTEEN YEARS!

With that said I'm sure the Cardinals in all their draft wisdom will buck that trend.

First round QB, fine. Late round project QB, fine. But please, don't waste your mid-round picks on a QB that in all likelihood will be a back-up/clipboard holder for the entirety of his career when so many other positions are a better mid-round value.

 

[Zeno]

For all of you guys who are saying that the Cards should draft a QB in the 2nd round I'd like to offer this little history lesson. Since 1995 their have been two QB's taken in the 2nd round who produced at a high level. Drew Brees (1st pick of the 2nd round) and Jake Plumber. The rest of them were bust to varying degrees. That's TWO in SIXTEEN YEARS!

With that said I'm sure the Cardinals in all their draft wisdom will buck that trend.

First round QB, fine. Late round project QB, fine. But please, don't waste your mid-round picks on a QB that in all likelihood will be a back-up/clipboard holder for the entirety of his career when so many other positions are a better mid-round value.

You can't draft based on past history. If the guy in round 2 is there that you think is the best fit for your team and grades out best you draft him, no matter what history says about the position.

 

[john h]

Imo Mallet is the top qb in the draft followed by Kaepernick. Both these guys are leaders, great arms, and they have brain matter.

I put Mallet up at #1 because he did play in a pro style offense. He did take snaps from the center. He does have the ability to bring his team from behind. Like I said before I rather have The Boston College Left Tackle. If Mallet falls to the Cardinals in the second round by the grace of the football gods, then the cardinals are going to be set at the Qb position for a long time.

And he did play for a former NFL head coach who is taking Arkansas to new levels it has not seen in many years. Bobby Petrino has a lot of football brain power. We just signed him to a 7 year extension knowing a lot of big name teams would come knocking on his door. Mallet competed with a real good young QB at Arkansas named Taylor who will head the team next year. Petrino plays his best no matter what. Mallet made giant strides from his first year at Arkansas to his second. I say again he is going to be a good NFL QB. He is big, he is accurate, he has the strongest arm in college football, he is football smart and a leader, he will stand in the pocket and wait and take a hit if necessary, and he is highly coach-able. All this character stuff is media driven. We who live here in Arkansas understand that he has grown into a quality young man. I think Mitch mentioned him as being like the Pittsburgh QB. I agree somewhat although Ryan will only run when necessary and he is very accurate on the run either to left or to right. His throws down the middle to a receiver closely covered are amazing. He can throw accurately through the smallest opening and also has great accuracy on his long throws. I am now of the opinion he is a better choice than Newton as he has played in a pro style offense under center his entire career. Seems to be excellent at reading defenses. With a team that has a good set of receivers he will be dynamite. I think by year two he becomes a starter. I tend to believe what my eyes have told me over the past two years of watching Mallet. What you see is what you get. He is no second round QB.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

For all of you guys who are saying that the Cards should draft a QB in the 2nd round I'd like to offer this little history lesson. Since 1995 their have been two QB's taken in the 2nd round who produced at a high level. Drew Brees (1st pick of the 2nd round) and Jake Plumber. The rest of them were bust to varying degrees. That's TWO in SIXTEEN YEARS!

With that said I'm sure the Cardinals in all their draft wisdom will buck that trend.

First round QB, fine. Late round project QB, fine. But please, don't waste your mid-round picks on a QB that in all likelihood will be a back-up/clipboard holder for the entirety of his career when so many other positions are a better mid-round value.

Thanks for the history lesson, and the benefit of your wisdom; much appreciated. And if Mallett is there in the second, I hope the Cards sprint to the front of the room to hand in their selection.

BIM: PLUMMER

 

[Seandonic]

You can't draft based on past history. If the guy in round 2 is there that you think is the best fit for your team and grades out best you draft him, no matter what history says about the position.

Not learning from history...that makes a lot of sense.

So if a team really needs a kicker or a punter they should pick one in the first few rounds because that always works out.

 

[Zeno]

Not learning from history...that makes a lot of sense.

So if a team really needs a kicker or a punter they should pick one in the first few rounds because that always works out.

If a kicker or punter is the top rated player on the board and your team has a need for one then by all means draft one. I can't recall a recent draft though where a kicker or punter was considered a day 1 pick...maybe not since Janikowski.

You have to draft based on your board THAT DAY not on what past drafts say. You don't overdraft and at the same time you don't pass a guy up because in recent years the same position was drafted at the same spot and that guy turned out to be no good.

 

[john h]

Mitch, as you know, I respect your opinons, but in comparing Mallet and Skelton, you said that they have similar arm strength, but that Skelton is much TOUGHER. I hope you're correct, but what do you base that assessment on?

I do not at all agree that Skelton is tougher than Mallet. I watched Mallet in all his games the past two years. He will stand and take the hit and get up and do it again. He did it for two years in the SEC and showed no signs of fear. Skelton comes out of a small league and his only real competition was 4 games he started for the Cards. He showed no signs of being the QBOTF to any of the gurus who write about the Cards. He did not excite me. He may somehow turn out better than I think but the fact is he is something like a 5th round pick and will likely end up like one if statistics mean anything. His big plus is he is large and strong and not afraid and can throw the ball long. Perhaps accurately perhaps not. I would certainly not go into the draft think he was the QBOTF and certainly not our starting QB next year. Who ever we sign at QB and perhaps whoever we draft will likely determine if we are able to keep our greatest player and fan draw in Larry Fitzgerald. There is a lot riding on who we draft and who we sign at QB. Not only for this year but for some years to come.

 

[Seandonic]

Thanks for the history lesson, and the benefit of your wisdom; much appreciated. And if Mallett is there in the second, I hope the Cards sprint to the front of the room to hand in their selection.

BIM: PLUMMER

For the history lesson you are welcome and I hope you do benefit from my wisdom. "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

 

[Buckybird]

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

Every person who works in the Cards office should have this tattooed to their foreheads...everyone!!!

 

[Seandonic]

If a kicker or punter is the top rated player on the board and your team has a need for one then by all means draft one. I can't recall a recent draft though where a kicker or punter was considered a day 1 pick...maybe not since Janikowski.

The reason a kicker has been taken in the first round of the draft a total of THREE times is that most intelligent football analyst realized that doing so is a monumental waste of a draft pick. NO kicker or punter should EVER be the top rated player on ANY draft board.

 

[SuperSpck]

Looking from the position of the draft itself Gabbart may not end up being so different from Aaron Rodgers. There are potential parallels looming.

Consider:
that Rodgers was in contention to be the #1 overall pick until just a couple of weeks before the Niners settled on Smith in '05.
Gabbert could conceivably go as high as #3 to BUF.

Despite being so highly thought of by many, Rodgers slid all the way to the back-half of the draft, taken with the 24th pick.
There's a strong possibility something similar could happen to Gabbert (or anyone).

Aaron Rodgers came with his own question marks, most notably, can he survive outside the Tedford system?
After all, his greatest attribute-- his freakishly efficient mechanics-- and NCAA statistical prowess, were part of the hallmark of the Tedford system that developed draft-wunderkinds like Dilfer, Harrington, Carr and Boller.

*sidebar, if one of those three had found themselves in the Rodgers' three-years groomed situation, could they have better careers?

Gabbert finds himself in an offense system outside the norm, but the key difference is his footwork isn't at draftee-era Rodger's level, but they're on the same level in general athletic ability.

So while there's an ocean separating the two, crossing it may not be as wide as it looks.

 

[Zeno]

The reason a kicker has been taken in the first round of the draft a total of THREE times is that most intelligent football analyst realized that doing so is a monumental waste of a draft pick. NO kicker or punter should EVER be the top rated player on ANY draft board.

Did I say the top rated player on their board overall? Nope. But if it gets to your pick in whatever round and the highest rated player on youir board is a kicker/punter and that is a position of need you don't pass them because of "history".

 

[Seandonic]

Did I say the top rated player on their board overall? Nope. But if it gets to your pick in whatever round and the highest rated player on youir board is a kicker/punter and that is a position of need you don't pass them because of "history".

My original statement was you shouldn't pick a kicker/punter in the first few rounds and you recanted with: if a player is at the top of your board you should take him. That implies that you would take a kicker/punter in the first few rounds. Never-mind... Fine. You win. Keep picking the same guys in whatever round suits you and never learn anything from yours or any others past mistakes.

Pick a Kicker in the first round and a QB in the second and have a nice day.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

I think the highest drafted kicker recently was Mike Nugent in round 2 to the Jets. He got injured and has been trying to catch on ever since.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

My original statement was you shouldn't pick a kicker/punter in the first few rounds and you recanted with: if a player is at the top of your board you should take him. That implies that you would take a kicker/punter in the first few rounds. Never-mind... Fine. You win. Keep picking the same guys in whatever round suits you and never learn anything from yours or any others past mistakes.

Pick a Kicker in the first round and a QB in the second and have a nice day.

???

To make a formal retraction or disavowal of a previously held statement or belief.

 

[Seandonic]

???

To make a formal retraction or disavowal of a previously held statement or belief.

Hey, its the grammar police. Just keep doing whatever you have to do to keep the attention off your own foolish comments. Since you like looking up words in the dictionary here is one for you today. Nitpick: To be excessively concerned with or critical of inconsequential details.

 

[Crazy Canuck]

Hey, its the grammar police. Just keep doing whatever you have to do to keep the attention off your own foolish comments. Since you like looking up words in the dictionary here is one for you today. Nitpick: To be excessively concerned with or critical of inconsequential details.

When you use a term that makes no sense, you can expect someone to question exactly what you mean; hardly nitpicking. All that was needed was a clarification so that we all could benefit from your deep and no doubt compelling point.

Check out the term insecure.

 

[Mulli]

Judges say it was perfectly acceptable to ask for an explanation of that particular use or misuse of the word "recant"...

 

[Russ Smith]

Not learning from history...that makes a lot of sense.

So if a team really needs a kicker or a punter they should pick one in the first few rounds because that always works out.

Well devils advocate says the Cards were one of the 2 teams on your list that bucked the trend already.

now I would argue that Plummer wasn't really a great pick, not a bad pick longtime NFL starter, but I think the franchise made a lot of decisions based on what they expected him to be that would have been different if they'd known 6 years earlier what they'd get from Jake.

 

[kerouac9]

Well devils advocate says the Cards were one of the 2 teams on your list that bucked the trend already.

now I would argue that Plummer wasn't really a great pick, not a bad pick longtime NFL starter, but I think the franchise made a lot of decisions based on what they expected him to be that would have been different if they'd known 6 years earlier what they'd get from Jake.

The issue wasn't in drafting Plummer, or trading him. The issue was giving him a new contract that paid him as much as Super Bowl quarterback Drew Brees. WTF was the front office thinking? That contract for mediocre performance was an anchor around the team's neck for half a decade.

 

[Russ Smith]

The issue wasn't in drafting Plummer, or trading him. The issue was giving him a new contract that paid him as much as Super Bowl quarterback Drew Brees. WTF was the front office thinking? That contract for mediocre performance was an anchor around the team's neck for half a decade.

Well sure but my point is if they knew then what they know now they could have drafted a QB to replace Jake. now at that time it could have wound up being Ryan Leaf of course since we had that pick. But the point is we weren't looking to replace him because we thought he was going to get rid of the bad stuff and keep the good stuff and that came much later, in Denver, and was only temporary and had to be dragged out of him by shanahan.

If you read the story in SI on him recently he admits that when he got benched for Cutler he stopped paying attention in meetings, would show up for games totally unaware of the gameplans, he said Shanahans' coaching style just totally broke him, he didn't love the game anymore and didn't want to play that way he wanted to be "the Snake" again.

So the one guy who ever got him to play winning football had to push him so hard Jake hated the guy.

 

[kerouac9]

Well sure but my point is if they knew then what they know now they could have drafted a QB to replace Jake. now at that time it could have wound up being Ryan Leaf of course since we had that pick. But the point is we weren't looking to replace him because we thought he was going to get rid of the bad stuff and keep the good stuff and that came much later, in Denver, and was only temporary and had to be dragged out of him by shanahan.

If you read the story in SI on him recently he admits that when he got benched for Cutler he stopped paying attention in meetings, would show up for games totally unaware of the gameplans, he said Shanahans' coaching style just totally broke him, he didn't love the game anymore and didn't want to play that way he wanted to be "the Snake" again.

So the one guy who ever got him to play winning football had to push him so hard Jake hated the guy.

They did when they drafted Josh McCown, right? Sat a year in Jake's final season, and then battled it out with a veteran in Jeff Blake the following year.

Have you read A Few Seconds of Panic by Stephan Fatsis? It covers that very season for the Broncos (2006, I think) and there's a lot of stuff there on Jake.

The real mistake was not losing one more game in 2000 to win the Mike Vick sweepstakes. We lost 7 games in a row but because Coach Mac was a great soundbite and we won a (fixed?) game before Election Day to get the stadium approved, we locked him up for four years.

 

[conraddobler]

Rats, my friend, please make your case as to why Gabbert's ineffectiveness to convert third downs at Mizzou applied only to coming out early.

Hey, Mike Mayock loves Gabbert....but what I think Mayock may be doing here is reaching for a player in a subpar QB draft pool....especially in a year where everyone has been drooling over what a QB like Aaron Rodgers can do for a champion wannabe.

I think Gabbert has talent...there's no question about it...but I rate him as a mid-to-late 2nd round QB talent, not a first. This year it's tough because...did you watch the QBs at the combine yesterday? It was a motley crew. The talent is not striking...not in the least. Therefore, someone needs to be hyped---because QBs always are.

Taking one split stat and making a mountain out of a molehill out of it is really trying too hard.

I watched the games Mitch, that's the thing, absolutely nothing about that stat scares me because I saw it play out in real time most of the time and in no case did I ever start to think he had a problem on third downs.

Most of that would be attributed to teams absolutely selling the farm out to stop the pass on third downs.

It had more to do in other words with the scheme and the abscence of the threat of a run, he made a huge clutch pass on 4th down in the bowl game, to be followed up by a bone headed 1st down pass pick 6.

If that's the best you have I'd think you just don't like him.

He wants to learn, he's a great kid with all the measurables.

Any team IMO would be lucky to have him, he's the real deal and no we're not going to take him.

I would add that of all the critiques I've seen on him, his footwork and his touch on deep passes are the two accurate ones.

He's mysteriously bad at tossing a deep ball over the heads of his WR's, which if you think about it would self correct in the NFL just do to speed, IE he might turn out to be lights out on that, cause he's always about 3 to 5 yards long on his deep passes, again I have a hunch this autocorrects in the NFL which would be hilarious, cause he can toss it a mile.