So in your fantasy land we shouldn’t talk about prospects til next years college football season is close to over. People don’t jump from off draftboards to #1 overall based on a decent or above average year.
What? Where in any of my posts have you read that we shouldn’t talk about next year’s draft? Also, while you are writing a post proving that you are not putting words in my mouth to suit your own point, can you please include where you have read anything from me about going from unknown to the #1 pick?
Everyone going into last year already knew Darnold Rosen Mayfield Allen and Jackson were the top 5 guys. Darnold had a crap season and his stock wasn’t effected at all. QB stock is already set years in advance.
I am sorry to say, but you are still wrong. I guess I need to prove it to you, so I can give you some examples. To fathom most of the draft community I will provide proof with both draft analyst and fans. Obviously, I don’t know if you are psychic, so I can only show you how the draft community in general works.
It goes both ways, you see, as you will find out when you have read this post.
In 2011 Blaine Gabbert was selected #10 overall, but it was not until the start of 2011 that he became a hot prospect. It’s hard to find rankings from that far back but if you click
here you can see a mock draft that draft analyst Todd McShay published right after the 2010 draft. You will notice that he does not have Gabbert included in his first round. If you click
here you can read an article from January 2011 from Football Outsiders where draft analysts’ Chad Reuter, Rob Rang and Bill Connelly talks about certain prospects. A direct quote from the article is that
“it’s possibly that no player in this draft will benefit more from Luck’s decision [to stay in school]
than Gabbert, who started to hit the radar when he declared for the NFL draft”.
Here is another article where the author tries to narrow down when Gabbert started to rise up draft boards. It’s also quite enlightening to look at other mock drafts from after the 2010 draft but before or very shortly into 2011. You can do so by clicking
here (two rounds),
here or
here. You will see that none of them includes Gabbert in the first round.
You will also notice that all of them, including McShay’s, has Ryan Mallett as a first round pick. Ryan Mallett was drafted in the third round.
In 2012 Ryan Tannehill was drafted #10 overall. You can click
here to read a mock draft from NFL writer Peter Schrager posted right after the 2011 draft. As you can see he did not project Ryan Tannehill to be a first round pick. If you click
here you can read a mock draft made by Todd McShay right after the 2011 draft. Again you will notice that he does not project Tannehill as a first round pick. Click
here to read a mock draft by draft analyst Matt Miller that was made in August 2011. Again you will see that he did not consider Tannehill a first round pick. By clicking
here, you can see some rankings from October 2011 where it says that Tannehill could be drafted between the second and the fifth round. By clicking
here you will read an article on Tannehill’s rise up draft boards.
You will also see that all of the links include Landry Jones and Matt Barkley as projected first round picks. None of them entered the draft, and thus people’s guess on the quarterback draft class was wrong for that reason alone.
In 2013 E.J. Manuel was the lone quarterback selected in the first round at pick #16. You can click
here to read some rankings from draft analyst Bucky Brooks posted in early January 2013. As you can see he has Manuel ranked as his #5 quarterback.
Here are his rankings from early February, and once again he has Manuel ranked as his #5 quarterback prospect. Click
here to see some rankings made by a fan in November 2012. You will notice that he has Manuel ranked as his #7 quarterback prospect.
Here you can see quarterback rankings from another fan posted in January 2013. He ranks Manuel as his #9 quarterback prospect.
Here is some quarterback rankings from July 2012 that does not even include Manuel.
You will undoubtedly notice that Matt Barkley, Landry Jones and Tyler Wilson are ranked ahead of Manuel in all the rankings. I can tell you that all three of them was drafted in the fourth round.
In 2014 Blake Bortles was selected as #3 overall. In September 2013 draft analyst Dan Kadar made a mock draft that you can see by clicking
here. He did not project Bortles as a first round pick. Click
here to see a mock draft by NFL writer Chris Burke published a few days after the 2013 draft. He did not include Bortles in his first round projection.
Here you will see a mock draft from right after the 2013 draft that does not include Bortles in the first round.
Here is a mock draft by draft analyst Eric Edholm from November 2013 where he does not project Bortles in his first round.
As you can see in most of the mock drafts they project Zach Mettenberger, Tahj Boyd and Brett Hundley to be first round picks. Mettenberger and Boyd was drafted in the sixth round, and Hundley did not even declare for the draft.
In regards to 2015 you can click
here to see a mock draft by NFL writer Jason McIntyre from May 2014 where he projects Brett Hundley to be a first round pick. Click
here to see a mock draft by draft analyst Matt Miller from May 2014 where he projects Hundley to be a first round pick.
Here is a mock draft by a fan from July 2014 where Hundley is projected to be a first round pick.
Here is a mock draft from December 2014 where Hundley is projected to be a first round pick. Click
here to see a mock draft by draft analyst Dane Brugler from September 2014 where Hundley is projected to be a first round pick. Click
here to see some quarterback rankings from January 2015 where Hundley is ranked as the #3 quarterback prospect.
Hundley was, in fact, not drafted in the top ten of the first round as most of the guys project. He was drafted in the fifth round.
In 2016 Carson Wentz was drafted second overall.
Here is a mock draft by Matt Miller from May 2015 where Wentz is not included as a first round pick.
Here is a mock draft from May 2015 where Wentz is not projected to be a first round pick.
Here is a mock draft from July 2015 where Wentz is not projected to be a first round pick.
Here is a mock draft from May 2015 where Wentz is not included in the first round.
Here is a mock draft from August 2015 where Wentz is not projected to be a first round pick.
Here is a compilation of rankings from draft analyst’s Todd McShay, Rob Rang, Charlie Campbell, Matt Miller and Ryan McCrystal from December 2015. None of them has Wentz in their top 32.
Here is some quarterback rankings from October 2015 that does not have Wentz included in the top five.
Here
is some quarterback rankings from May where Wentz is not included in the top five.
You will also see that all of the mock draft has Cardale Jones and Connor Cook projected to be selected in the first round, and most of them in the top ten. Both was drafted in the fourth round.
In 2017 Mitch Trubisky ended up as the #2 overall pick. Click
here to see quarterback rankings in the NCAA from July 2017. Trubisky is not included in the top 35.
Here is a mock draft from October 2016 where Trubisky is not projected to be a first round pick. Click
here to read a mock draft by Todd McShay from May 2016 where Trubisky is not projected to be a first round pick. Click
here to see a mock draft from Matt Miller from May 2016 where Trubisky is not included in the first round. Click
here to see a mock draft from December 2016 where Trubisky is not projected to be a first round pick. Click
here
to see a mock draft from October 2016 where Trubisky is not projected to be a first round pick.
You will also see that almost all those mock drafts have Brad Kaaya projected as a first round pick. Kaaya was drafted in the sixth round.
You can obviously find more examples, and you can make the exact same exercise with the second round if you like.
Every link I have shown you contains stuff that has been published after the draft one year and before the draft the following year, and thus gives a valid view into how the quarterback draft class in the following draft were perceived.
Now, it’s obviously subjective if you think a prospect has a phenom year, as you call it, but I think you will agree that it was not the case with almost all of the mentioned prospects.
We are all wrong sometimes, and I think that is perfectly fine, but you probably shouldn’t be so stubborn when you don’t know what you are talking about.
