Does Keim Have The Guts to Trade Up In the First Round?

[Stout]

OK I must have missed that. Thanks for clarifying.

So basically you would be happy with any of the top 6 QBs but would only trade for Darnold, Rosen or Mayfield.

Yep.

Stout---You responded to my question (at #136) on this thread with your answers to QB and also how much you were willing to trade (at post #145 and #150).

Do you believe that every single QB you list above has a chance to succeed as a franchise QB?

To a greater or lesser extent, sure. It's an absolute crap shoot. The only guy I truly rate as the #1 overall talent QB is Darnold. Rosen I like a lot, on a tier just below Darnold. I like Mayfield the player, but am unsure as to his character--still willing to trade up for him based on talent. Then come the rest. I probably rate Jackson at 6, Allen at 5, and Rudolph at 4.

 

[daves]

Kyle Odegard tweeted some theory-crafting on estimated cost. Obviously only includes draft capital and not players.

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This is naive and ignores the fact that the Jets and Bills have already paid FAR more than the value reflected in that draft chart to move into position to draft a QB, not even knowing which one will be available. For example, the Jets paid 806 points (assuming their 2019 2nd pick is worth as much as the last pick in the 2nd round this year) to move from 6 to 3, where 3 is worth 514 points. That's a 57% premium over the chart value.

As soon as QBs start coming off the board, the teams in position to pick them will be able to hold out for a king's ransom with multiple teams bidding to move up. There is no way in hell that the Cardinals can get from #15 to #2, #3, or even #5 or #6 for anywhere close to the oft-mentioned two #1's and a #2.

Another dose of reality: In 2012 the Redskins moved up to #2 to pick RGIII. They gave up three first-round picks and a 2nd round pick - their #6, #39, 2013 #22 overall and 2014 #2 overall picks. That turned out to be 1569 total points worth of picks. Even in 2012, valuing the future picks as if they were at the end of their rounds, they gave up 968 points. All in exchange for a #2 pick worth 717 points by the chart. That's somewhere between a 35% and a 119% premium.

I'd bet that any team moving up in this year's draft to take a QB will pay at least a 50% premium over the values in that chart.

...dbs

 

[Gandhi]

Not if you field a competitive roster and win the 5th most games in the league over that span... as Keim has proven, it gets you an extension.

When Keim achieved that, he had a great head coach and at least an above average starting quarterback. Now he has an unproven head coach and a walking (well, I am not even sure about that) starting quarterback.

What would have gotten Keim fired faster? Giving up 4th and 6th round picks for Carson Palmer, or even just starting Drew Stanton? Or trading all the way up for Blake Bortles?

Excluding the deal for Palmer, yes, that would have gotten him fired. Settling for mediocracy is the certain way to get fired in the NFL, and there are many examples of this. The point being that you are fired no matter what if you miss on a franchise quarterback.

Keim's job would have been over had he "risked it all" for Blake Bortles, who he liked a lot. If your team is really good, you can convince an owner that it's possible to keep winning with bandaid QBs. If your team is garbage and can't make the playoffs because all of your assets are tied up into a player you pushed all of the chips in on, you're screwed, there's no coming back from it.

Yes, you can probably convince him of that. Having missed the playoff in three out of five seasons, including that last two, is not fielding a really good team, though. There is one goal in the NFL, and if you have almost no shot at achieving it, you are not good enough. I am actually a big fan of Keim, but he is not going to keep his job if he continues to field average teams.

 

[Jim Otis]

This is naive and ignores the fact that the Jets and Bills have already paid FAR more than the value reflected in that draft chart to move into position to draft a QB, not even knowing which one will be available. For example, the Jets paid 806 points (assuming their 2019 2nd pick is worth as much as the last pick in the 2nd round this year) to move from 6 to 3, where 3 is worth 514 points. That's a 57% premium over the chart value.

As soon as QBs start coming off the board, the teams in position to pick them will be able to hold out for a king's ransom with multiple teams bidding to move up. There is no way in hell that the Cardinals can get from #15 to #2, #3, or even #5 or #6 for anywhere close to the oft-mentioned two #1's and a #2.

Another dose of reality: In 2012 the Redskins moved up to #2 to pick RGIII. They gave up three first-round picks and a 2nd round pick - their #6, #39, 2013 #22 overall and 2014 #2 overall picks. That turned out to be 1569 total points worth of picks. Even in 2012, valuing the future picks as if they were at the end of their rounds, they gave up 968 points. All in exchange for a #2 pick worth 717 points by the chart. That's somewhere between a 35% and a 119% premium.

I'd bet that any team moving up in this year's draft to take a QB will pay at least a 50% premium over the values in that chart.

...dbs

It comes down to you believe in the guy or you don't , If Mayfield is there ,I mortgage the farm to get him , if he is not there I don't mortgage the farm .

 

[Gandhi]

Definitely not trying to attack the poster here, but it's clear that there's a lot of people with this idea that "any QB" is worth the move up, so we can prove that Keim has "guts."

Come on, Solar, you are much better than that. It’s obvious that people only want to target one of the big four quarterbacks because they think those prospects are good. Writing otherwise is to not respect other people’s opinion.

 

[pinetopred]

I've been out of this whole draft process since January. What happened to Rosen's draft stock? It was between him or Darnold for 1st overall pick, and Rosen being the fundamentally more sound option.

Rosen may be outspoken, a bit like Mayfield, but he can definitely ball. All the other prospects have more flaws than him. I knew all the way that the inaccurate Josh Allen would shoot up the boards after underwear olympics and pro day.

If Rosen is really slipping past the top 5, he is a no-brainer. In recent years worse QBs than Rosen were drafted top 3. Rosen is pretty similar to Goff, who went 1st overall.

Agreed if not for concussions and shoulder issues safest QB in this draft those issues push him down for me. Maybe the player most risk most reward in this whole draft I tpersonally see alot of Aaron Rodgers in him his personality can turn people off but I think him and Mayfield are by far the best QBs in this draft. I'd love to be able to trade up into the 7-11 range to get either one, but don't want to move into top 5 for either of them.

 

[Veer]

I feel the Rosen situation could be quite similar to the Rodgers or Brees situations a long time ago. Obviously, how the league and the draft have evolved, Rosen won't slip as far as Rodgers. But he has undoubtedly the same swag. Brees fell to the 2nd mostly because of his size, but there was already a known shoulder issue. Remember the Chargers let him go because of a chronic shoulder issue. Now he looks better than ever and seems to be playing into his 40s, while Rodgers is arguably the best QB in the league. If Keim has the guts to trade all the way up to 5 or 6, Rosen would be a great choice.

 

[pinetopred]

I feel the Rosen situation could be quite similar to the Rodgers or Brees situations a long time ago. Obviously, how the league and the draft have evolved, Rosen won't slip as far as Rodgers. But he has undoubtedly the same swag. Brees fell to the 2nd mostly because of his size, but there was already a known shoulder issue. Remember the Chargers let him go because of a chronic shoulder issue. Now he looks better than ever and seems to be playing into his 40s, while Rodgers is arguably the best QB in the league. If Keim has the guts to trade all the way up to 5 or 6, Rosen would be a great choice.

I think we are on the same page with Rosen. I still don't like a huge trade up but if Cards love either Rosen or Mayfield I'd be less discouraged.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Panic is starting to set in over here for me.

I'm going to become the biggest darksider this board has to offer if we move into the top 5.

Plenty of forum members already consider both you and I as darksiders for speaking out against a major trade up in this draft.

From looking at the way SK plays his chess game in the years since he became GM, I'd say that he has shown his true mindset and that he will continue to be who he has shown us he is.

That said, there is the possibility that SK breaks with his own tradition and makes a major trade to the top of the draft. Here's why. The logic behind SK not taking a developmental or FQB in the draft is that SK has not rated anyone in previous drafts as worthy of the move. What if there is a guy in this draft that does meet SK's criteria and someone worthy of the investment? Just because he has not done it in the past will not lock him down into not doing it this year.

Forget your own evaluations of previous QBs or of any QB in this draft. It is how SK has come to his decision that counts since he is the one making the call. The same 4-yr contract that both he and SW have can either be seen as a commitment by MB to continue the course and retool OR it is license to roll the dice and gamble on a QB purchase knowing that both the coach and GM are still safely employed.

So while I am against a major move based on several future drafts, I would not be too shocked if this is the year that SK makes the gamble.

Regardless of the outcome and who we draft, I'll still be behind the players brought in to wear Cardinal Red. It's the only way to be a critical observer and fan and not go over to the Dark Side.

 

[BW52]

Sam Darnold is the only QB i would consider trading up for.He is still only 20 years old and can be coached.Rosen just seems like he will be very hit or miss with no middle ground and he does have durability issues .Mayfield is BIG TIME Bust to me.I don`t think his game will be anything close to effective in the NFL.Josh Allen needs coaching and will need to sit andd learn.Lamar Jackson will need coaching time to learn also.I think its laughable people think Mason Rudolph is anything special. I see backup/spot starter at best.Same with Lauletta.

 

[Totally_Red]

Plenty of forum members already consider both you and I as darksiders for speaking out against a major trade up in this draft.

From looking at the way SK plays his chess game in the years since he became GM, I'd say that he has shown his true mindset and that he will continue to be who he has shown us he is.

That said, there is the possibility that SK breaks with his own tradition and makes a major trade to the top of the draft. Here's why. The logic behind SK not taking a developmental or FQB in the draft is that SK has not rated anyone in previous drafts as worthy of the move. What if there is a guy in this draft that does meet SK's criteria and someone worthy of the investment? Just because he has not done it in the past will not lock him down into not doing it this year.

Forget your own evaluations of previous QBs or of any QB in this draft. It is how SK has come to his decision that counts since he is the one making the call. The same 4-yr contract that both he and SW have can either be seen as a commitment by MB to continue the course and retool OR it is license to roll the dice and gamble on a QB purchase knowing that both the coach and GM are still safely employed.

So while I am against a major move based on several future drafts, I would not be too shocked if this is the year that SK makes the gamble.

Regardless of the outcome and who we draft, I'll still be behind the players brought in to wear Cardinal Red. It's the only way to be a critical observer and fan and not go over to the Dark Side.

I'm against any trade up that costs the Cardinals next year's number 1, because it is likely to be a top ten pick. None of the QB's is worth two number one picks, even Baker Mayfield.

 

[BW52]

I'm against any trade up that costs the Cardinals next year's number 1, because it is likely to be a top ten pick. None of the QB's is worth two number one picks, even Baker Mayfield.

Agree.Especially Baker Mayfield.

 

[GimmedaBall]

I'm against any trade up that costs the Cardinals next year's number 1, because it is likely to be a top ten pick. None of the QB's is worth two number one picks, even Baker Mayfield.

I hear your warning. It might be a top 5 pick next year . . . or higher.

 

[Solar7]

When Keim achieved that, he had a great head coach and at least an above average starting quarterback. Now he has an unproven head coach and a walking (well, I am not even sure about that) starting quarterback.



Excluding the deal for Palmer, yes, that would have gotten him fired. Settling for mediocracy is the certain way to get fired in the NFL, and there are many examples of this. The point being that you are fired no matter what if you miss on a franchise quarterback.



Yes, you can probably convince him of that. Having missed the playoff in three out of five seasons, including that last two, is not fielding a really good team, though. There is one goal in the NFL, and if you have almost no shot at achieving it, you are not good enough. I am actually a big fan of Keim, but he is not going to keep his job if he continues to field average teams.

Let's be honest - if the team hadn't been beset by injuries, this team would have made the playoffs in more than 2/5 seasons. A few bad bounces of the ball hurt us in 2016, but this team was hugely talented. 2013 we almost pulled it off, but the Seahawks and 49ers were just too good. Last year is the first year that there was really a decline of talent to blame for the situation.

 

[Solar7]

Come on, Solar, you are much better than that. It’s obvious that people only want to target one of the big four quarterbacks because they think those prospects are good. Writing otherwise is to not respect other people’s opinion.

I honestly don't think so, not from the title of this thread and the arguments I've had over the past few months. People are frustrated with Keim and his approach, and want to take ANY of the four guys, because they feel hopeless without it. I get it. That's not to say there isn't a contingent that is saying "Only Darnold" or "Only Mayfield," but even Stout above, who has been clear about his feelings, pretty much mentions that he's fine with trading up for Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield.

It's the perceived lack of proactivity that is killing some of these fans, not the player alone.

 

[Cards Czar]

Looks like the Cardinals are wanting to move up in the Draft.

https://www.themaven.net/nfldraftsc...rade-up-for-qb-GEglFbNs5kie3reW6rMSgg/?full=1

 

[Stout]

Plenty of forum members already consider both you and I as darksiders for speaking out against a major trade up in this draft.

Actually, I see you two as Cards homers (without the stigma of the word) rather than Dark Siders. You guys seem content with the QB situation and don't think we should address it until next year at the earliest. The Dark Siders view the QB situation as a giant steaming load of crap and think we're yet again putting off the future, sacrificing years of progress to pin our hopes on never-has-beens at the position.

I honestly don't think so, not from the title of this thread and the arguments I've had over the past few months. People are frustrated with Keim and his approach, and want to take ANY of the four guys, because they feel hopeless without it. I get it. That's not to say there isn't a contingent that is saying "Only Darnold" or "Only Mayfield," but even Stout above, who has been clear about his feelings, pretty much mentions that he's fine with trading up for Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield.

It's the perceived lack of proactivity that is killing some of these fans, not the player alone.

I'm fine with any of the three, but at varying prices. I'd give up a lot for Rosen, but not as much as for Darnold. I'd give up much less for Mayfield. It's a sliding scale, based on my differing levels of faith in the 3 best QBs in this draft.

 

[Chopper0080]

Josh Rosen baby!

 

[GimmedaBall]

Actually, I see you two as Cards homers (without the stigma of the word) rather than Dark Siders. You guys seem content with the QB situation and don't think we should address it until next year at the earliest. The Dark Siders view the QB situation as a giant steaming load of crap and think we're yet again putting off the future, sacrificing years of progress to pin our hopes on never-has-beens at the position.




I'm fine with any of the three, but at varying prices. I'd give up a lot for Rosen, but not as much as for Darnold. I'd give up much less for Mayfield. It's a sliding scale, based on my differing levels of faith in the 3 best QBs in this draft.

I'm only speaking for myself in regards to the QB situation.

My preference is to continue bringing in young vets at the position. With the changing game at the college level it is getting more-and-more difficult to translate the QB play in college to the pro level. That's the biggest reason to sign a vet who has already undergone the transition and performed in the NFL. They've gone through a learning curve with experience with a pro offense and also reading D's.

My wish-list this year was (1) Alex Smith, (2) Kirk Cousins, and (3) Sam Bradford. I got my #3 wish at QB and the only reason I had him at #3 was the injury history that has side-tracked his career. Bradford was the top pick in his draft and offensive rookie of the year---he played on a Jeff Fisher run team that had an annual change of OC and playbooks. He played well for both the Eagles and the Vikes until put on the shelf by injuries. Chances are it will happen again. . . but if it doesn't, Cards have a vet presence at QB that will keep us competitive until our new coaching staff gets their O and D installed. Once the players learn the O, a healthy Bradford can get us to the playoffs and beyond.

I saw Bradford in training camp for the Rams when they were in St. Louis. He was everything one could hope for in a pocket passer from accuracy to reading the D to making every throw. There's a reason he is still hanging on in the league and why both the Eagles and Vikes invested in him via trade.

At this point in time, I think the Bradford + Glennon + draft picks will be a greater opportunity than Bradford + Glennon + top-of-the-draft rookie QB with zero NFL throws - draft picks. The big difference is the big MINUS draft picks. . . and the big unknown on how the rookie will translate to the pros.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Josh Rosen baby!

Even with his history of concussions?

Don't forget, Kolb walked away from the game when his concussions got him worried about his long-term health.

 

[Solar7]

Actually, I see you two as Cards homers (without the stigma of the word) rather than Dark Siders. You guys seem content with the QB situation and don't think we should address it until next year at the earliest. The Dark Siders view the QB situation as a giant steaming load of crap and think we're yet again putting off the future, sacrificing years of progress to pin our hopes on never-has-beens at the position.




I'm fine with any of the three, but at varying prices. I'd give up a lot for Rosen, but not as much as for Darnold. I'd give up much less for Mayfield. It's a sliding scale, based on my differing levels of faith in the 3 best QBs in this draft.

To be clear about how I feel about the QB situation, I would definitely like it addressed this year. However, I'm more inclined to wait for Lamar Jackson/Mason Rudolph/Kyle Lauletta, rather than trading up for someone I think is just as likely to bust as any of those three. (I lack confidence in all of the QBs at the top of the draft for various reasons and would not be surprised if one or all ended up failing.)

I can accept a losing season in 2018, full of bumps and bruises that come from installing new systems, mediocre QB play, and a lack of talent at key positions, but I can't accept what I see in the cards if we get a QB and he doesn't hit.

Darnold: Interceptions, probably won't be available anyways
Rosen: Concussions, injuries
Mayfield: Height, off-the-field-concerns
Allen: Major accuracy concerns, collarbone held together with a plate

All worries here.

 

[Gandhi]

Let's be honest - if the team hadn't been beset by injuries, this team would have made the playoffs in more than 2/5 seasons. A few bad bounces of the ball hurt us in 2016, but this team was hugely talented. 2013 we almost pulled it off, but the Seahawks and 49ers were just too good. Last year is the first year that there was really a decline of talent to blame for the situation.

Maybe they would have reach the playoffs, maybe they would not. We don’t know. We do, however, know the important point that they didn’t. No one in the NFL is getting a free pass because they were close or unlucky.

 

[Gandhi]

I honestly don't think so, not from the title of this thread and the arguments I've had over the past few months. People are frustrated with Keim and his approach, and want to take ANY of the four guys, because they feel hopeless without it. I get it. That's not to say there isn't a contingent that is saying "Only Darnold" or "Only Mayfield," but even Stout above, who has been clear about his feelings, pretty much mentions that he's fine with trading up for Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield.

Well, I don’t know if that’s true, but if it is it could be because Stout and others, myself included, simply like all four of those prospects.

 

[Solar7]

Well, I don’t know if that’s true, but if it is it could be because Stout and others, myself included, simply like all four of those prospects.

That’s valid.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not that I don’t like them, it’s that I can’t begin to be fully confident in my evaluation and the price is too much. If I were sitting at #1 and hadn’t paid anything to get up there, I’d take Rosen. Darnold next, then Mayfield. I’d probably flatly not draft Allen without a trade back.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Well, I don’t know if that’s true, but if it is it could be because Stout and others, myself included, simply like all four of those prospects.

It will be a historical draft if 4 QBs succeed as franchise guys. The expectations for anyone in the top 10 needs to be a perennial ALL-PRO and possible future HOF. Anyone in the 11-31 ranged needs to perform as a pro-bowl player.

Do you really see 4 guys meeting that criteria in this year's draft?