Draft Prospects thread

[JCSunsfan]

Yeah whatever...Just root for the Hawks to lose....ok?

Well, they are 4th now, and they have another major injury. They ARE going to tank this season. They have every reason to do so. The top 4 players in this draft would probably be consensus #1's in any other draft (if Oden comes out). They are not going to make the playoffs anyway, so even if they get bumped out of the lottery through someone else's windfall, their second round pick will be worth more.

Our best hope is that the "tanking competition" will be intense this year. Philly fans long for it and get angrier with every win. So, the Hawks end up with the 3rd worst record, don't get lucky in the lottery, and someone else like the Sonics does. It bumps them down to 4 and we get one of Durant, Thabeet, or Brendan Wright.

I'm trying to mix my pessimism with a little optimism.

 

[Mainstreet]

Yeah whatever...Just root for the Hawks to lose....ok?

Yes!!!... so long as they do not go in the tank.

 

[pokerface]

OK to seek a ying and yang kind of harmony between us all I WILL root for the Hawks to beat the Cavs tomorrow (since we got the Cavs pick too...heh). Cavs could use another loss anyhoo...

 

[JCSunsfan]

OK to seek a ying and yang kind of harmony between us all I WILL root for the Hawks to beat the Cavs tomorrow (since we got the Cavs pick too...heh). Cavs could use another loss anyhoo...

there ya go

 

[pokerface]

Atlanta lost again but check this....

Memphis 6-24
Philly 7-21
Charlotte 7-21
Atlanta 9-18

The Hawks seem somewhat entrenched with the fourth worst record right now. The Knicks, Hornets, Nets and Sonics are close to the Hawks record. So chances are greater for the Hawks to move down in the draft than up.

Long season to go but thats where it stands now.

 

[F-Dog]

I would ten times rather the Hawks finish with the worst record in the league than have them wind up in the eighth playoff spot in the east. If the Suns are cursed, they'll be screwed regardless, so I prefer to play the percentages.


The Suns will not take Horford over Noah. My feeling is that Noah sold them 100% last year; he could take the rest of this season off and still wind up on top of the Suns' draft board. It's better for the Suns if Horford impresses, of course.

 

[hafey]

Why do you feel that way? I guess what I mean is, what about Noah sold them?

 

[slinslin]

Size, athleticism, character probably.

Unless Noah is a bust he seems to be exactly what the Suns want from a center.

 

[hafey]

but he is limited offensively.

 

[Louis]

33
Thaddeus Young
Georgia Tech

You must be registered for see images

• Birthday:
  6/21/1988
• NBA Postion:
  Small Forward
• Class:
  Freshman
• Ht:
  6-8
• Wt:
  217
• College Team:
  Georgia Tech
• Hometown:
  Memphis, TN
• High School:
  Mitchell
• Team Site Profile
  2006 Statistics

Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2Syh8zSChE
NBA Comparison: Paul Pierce
Strengths: Elite level athlete ... Extremely fluid and explosive ... Blessed with incredible gifts ... Prototypical small forward ... Has the advantage of being left handed, making him tougher to defend ... Has great length for a wing player ... Strong competitor ... Outside shooting and shot off the dribble have shown solid improvement ... Foot speed and length make him a terrific pressure defender ... Triggers the press defense well with his speed and quickness ... Great attitude, hard worker. Excels in the classroom with a 4.0 GPA ... His potential is incredible, but he still needs to gain confidence in his abilities and body strength ...

Weaknesses: Still a bit inconsistent shooting the ball from outside, but showing vast improvement ... Skills are still raw ... Ball handling can be sloppy at times ... Needs to add a great deal of weight, right now he can get pushed around inside. Another 20 pounds of muscle will make him a lot stronger on the glass and finishing in traffic ...

 

[PhxGametime]

I wouldn't mind Jermareo Davidson (Alabama) C with one of the late 1st Rounders... I've liked his game since his Freshman year.


I looked at his FG PCT not too long ago though and maybe he's settling for too many outside jumpers but I compare him to a Hilton Armstrong type.


I really haven't watched many games outside of U of A though and you'd all be disappointed in ME lol i only have 3 tapes of game-film this year but last year I didn't start watching until late, I've just gotta be more selective in who I'm recording...


Oden, Durant, Noah, B Wright, J Wright, Horford, etc. - man if the Suns could get ahold of one of these (and I know there's no shot at Oden but I wanted to list top 6)... I'd like to see Thabeet, just not sure the Suns would go that direction.

 

[nathan]

 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 
1 0.25000 0.21510 0.17773 0.35716 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 
2 0.19900 0.18811 0.17123 0.31858 0.12307 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 
3 0.15600 0.15739 0.15586 0.22571 0.26477 0.04027 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 
4 0.11900 0.12598 0.13300 0.09855 0.35067 0.16034 0.01247 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 
5 0.08800 0.09656 0.10681 0.00000 0.26148 0.35991 0.08357 0.00366 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 
6 0.06300 0.07097 0.08116 0.00000 0.00000 0.43948 0.30468 0.03968 0.00103 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 
7 0.04300 0.04940 0.05788 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.59928 0.23222 0.01795 0.00029 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 
8 0.02800 0.03262 0.03886 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.72444 0.16795 0.00805 0.00008 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 
9 0.01700 0.02000 0.02411 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.81308 0.12201 0.00378 0.00002 0.00000 0.00000 
10 0.01100 0.01301 0.01578 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.86965 0.08877 0.00179 0.00000 0.00000 
11 0.00800 0.00949 0.01154 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.90737 0.06284 0.00077 0.00000 
12 0.00700 0.00831 0.01011 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.93535 0.03901 0.00022 
13 0.00600 0.00713 0.00869 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.96021 0.01798 
14 0.00500 0.00594 0.00725 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.98181

I couldn't find a table of probabilities that wasn't specifically made for a previous draft, so I wrote my own script to calculate probabilities. If Atlanta finishes with the fourth worst record (and there are no ties), the probability of them getting a top 3 pick is 0.37798.

I guess we'll all be watching this pick all season, so if people are interested perhaps I can make a page that can do the calculations with ties.

 

[jbeecham]

I couldn't find a table of probabilities that wasn't specifically made for a previous draft, so I wrote my own script to calculate probabilities. If Atlanta finishes with the fourth worst record (and there are no ties), the probability of them getting a top 3 pick is 0.37798.

I guess we'll all be watching this pick all season, so if people are interested perhaps I can make a page that can do the calculations with ties.

So Altanta has a 38% chance of moving up, but only a 9.9% chance of staying at the 4th pick, and they have a 52.35% chance of their pick going down?

The other thing I don't get is that the 4th & 5th worst teams have a higher % of dropping 1 pick lower than they do of keeping their place, but the trend doesn't continue.

 

[nathan]

So Altanta has a 38% chance of moving up, but only a 9.9% chance of staying at the 4th pick, and they have a 52.35% chance of their pick going down?

The other thing I don't get is that the 4th & 5th worst teams have a higher % of dropping 1 pick lower than they do of keeping their place, but the trend doesn't continue.

Yeah, some of the numbers are a little strange and nonintuitive. With more balls being removed the probability of a dark horse getting a top 3 pick increases. Combine that fact with the three pulls and a dark horse getting a top 3 pick is more likely than Atlanta getting one. The same thing doesn't happen with the late lottery because they just don't have enough chances. Even with three pulls there is not a good chance of anybody behind them moving up. The higher you go up the more likely it is that someone will leap frog you.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I am wondering if we should even be looking at the late first rounders. It seems to me highly unlikely that we would be picking there. We'll either trade those picks to move up, for a veteran player, or for a later draft.

That would be an interesting poll. How many picks do you think we will actually make for ourselves in the 2007 draft? My guess. . .1.

 

[hcsilla]

I wouldn't mind Jermareo Davidson (Alabama) C with one of the late 1st Rounders... .

I agree, Davidson is a fine bigman prospect. IMO, he is more polished offensively than Armstrong.

 

[hcsilla]

but he is limited offensively.

So is Horford.

 

[Diawsome]

Using general assumptions on where the picks will fall (just because it is way to early to consider any spot secure specially in the east) I would have it fall out as...

Atlanta's 1st rounder
#5: Hasheem Thabeet: An athletic big man who could keep up in the Suns system while providing a defensive answer for the teams such as Dallas where Kurt Thomas isn't a good fit. Though he isn't as polished as someone like Noah I believe he could come in and have a Steven Hunter like impact on the team right away. Nothing to talk about offensively but a decent shot blocker who could be our version of what DeSagana Diop is for Dallas. Let him work with Mark West and Marc Ivaroni for a couple years to progress his offensive game as they worked wonders with Amare.

• Noah is a good player but I don't really like him as top 5 pick in a draft this deep (I see him playing the SAR role; starter for mediocre teams 6th-7th man for contenders). His frame suggests that he will struggle to put on the weight/muscle he will need to play against the bigs of the west. I agree he would be an excellent fit for the full court offense but the Suns really need someone who they can depend on in a half court set which they will face in the postseason against the Spurs/Mavs which is a weakness of his right now.

Cleveland's 1st rounder
#22: Corey Brewer: a solid perimeter defender who has a decent offensive game to go with it. A great attitude with a + work ethic who coming from a championship team knows how to win games and would add that much more depth to the bench. Most sites have him going in this general region though I believe he will be taken sooner so I am trusting their opinions at the moment.

Our own 1st rounder:
#29: I really have no clue on this one. The name I see bouncing around more than anyone is this Italian shooter Marco Belinelli. I have seen him going everywhere from the back end of the lottery to the back end of the 1st round. I will say that this guy is somebody who D'Antoni would drool over, the best shooter from what I have seen and/or read in this draft who can get his shot off from anywhere. His weakness though is he is a horrible defender and he tends to get caught with his love for the 3 ball cue Quentin Richardson. If he were to be available at when the Suns came up I don't see how they pass him over.

• The Suns do have a history of trading away picks if they don't believe a player they like/want will be available at their turn so with that I could see them packaging this pick with say James Jones to someone like Miami or Detroit who Jones would fit in nicely with either of them for their 2nd rounder this year (both mid 40s) and a future 2nd. This would save them the guaranteed contract that 1st rounder would make and the 2-3 million from Jones' contract to lighten the load of the luxury tax they will pay. Then they could look to take a foreigner to stash away in Europe for a couple years a la the Spurs or possibly take a flier on someone like Mustafa Shakur as a potential back up to Steve Nash while not having to deal with that guaranteed contract.

 

[panfolk]

At SF I'd like to see LR Mbah a Moute myself as he has size and height to be an eventual replacement to Marion. Marion's 3point shooting isn't what makes him valuable. It's hustle, athleticism, and versatility which I see LRMaM being strong in as well. Wouldn't it be a relief to have a solid rebounder in the second unit also?

At SG I think the Suns are set... unless Budinger is available because he'd be too tempting to pass on I would imagine. I would love to see him on the Suns. If he proves to be even an average defender in college I think he'd bring in the fans in droves.

At PF I think the Suns would be set if they got a C to move Amare to PF on occasion with Diaw being the starter. If they wanted to keep Amare's minutes at C for the most part I think Hansbrough could be a KT like player though I have my doubts. Brandan Wright might be a good choice as someone to play both frontcourt spots and block some shots. Horford's limitations have been discussed. If McRoberts or Heytvelt showed some fire or Splitter left Tau the prospects would look even better.

At PG I don't see any prospects in 2007 and unless we get the Hawks pick in 2008 at number 1 and draft OJ Mayo I don't see a difference maker on the horizon. Although I'm not even sure they'd need one as LB's PG skills are getting better. I'm convinced it was Bouldin the Suns were watching at Gonzaga as Raivio doesn't seem as good a prospect. Bouldin could be interesting if he can prove his skills at the point while not playing it full time, like Brandon Roy later has with the Blazers.


At C there doesn't seem to be the right prospect within reach. Oden is proving himself but we'd never see him as a Sun. Noah is too skinny. Hawes too stodgy. Sean Williams doesn't seem like the sharpest tool in the shed. Thabeet is too raw. Unless they shoved another of the promising looking members of the PF crop into service as a C (ala Amare and KT) there doesn't seem to be a good choice.



Even though he's too thin I'd still like to see Noah as a Sun and although Budinger might not be the defender the Suns need likewise I'd like to see him in purple. I would want them to draft LRMaM or Hansbrough with the Cleveland pick and trade away their own pick as they will most likely do.

 

[sunsfn]

At SG I think the Suns are set... unless Budinger is available because he'd be too tempting to pass on I would imagine. I would love to see him on the Suns. If he proves to be even an average defender in college I think he'd bring in the fans in droves.

I do not think the suns are set at the SG. I can see them trading for a SG before the trade deadline, because we really need outside shooting since Junior and Bell are very eratic right now. Nash scoring more is a necesity, not just because he wants to. Diaw is not a good outside shooter either.

If they do not get a shooter in a trade, I think they will go for one in the draft.

Last year Junior, Tim Thomas, and Bell were lights out most of the year after Bell started out a little slow.

This team has to spread the floor, and right now they are not doing that good enough.

 

[panfolk]

I do not think the suns are set at the SG. I can see them trading for a SG before the trade deadline, because we really need outside shooting since Junior and Bell are very eratic right now. Nash scoring more is a necesity, not just because he wants to. Diaw is not a good outside shooter either.

If they do not get a shooter in a trade, I think they will go for one in the draft.

Last year Junior, Tim Thomas, and Bell were lights out most of the year after Bell started out a little slow.

This team has to spread the floor, and right now they are not doing that good enough.

We'll see how it pans out. JR may get his shot back with the leather ball (though I will finally admit he's been looking a little wild in his shot selection) and Bell may straighten up and fly right. LB's production is helping significantly but like I mentioned I'm beginning to see how he'll fit in the backup point slot instead of shooting guard.

 

[Delmon Young]

Noah would be a perfect fit for the Suns. No, he doesn't have a great offensive game, but in the Suns' run and gun style offense, he could get his points simply off of transition basketball and fast breaks. He's the best running big man in college basketball (and one of the best in recent memory), he's a great passer, has an excellent handle, and is very long and athletic for his size.

He fits the Suns' offense to a T.

 

[slinslin]

I wouldn't mind Shakur with our own pick, he has really come a long way imo, really playing well in an up-tempo game and racking up the assists.

Corey Brewer with Clevelands pick would also be fine with me.

One interessting guy seems to be Morris Almond from Rice. Nbadraft.net has him going to us at #28 right now. He is a Sernior SG averaging 31.4ppg 52%FG 47%3s and already had 2 40+ games this season against Vanderbilt and Utah.

If we dont go with Noah, Thabeet, Wrigth, Horford with Atlanta's pick Sean Williams would be very interessting averaging 13ppg 7.5rpg 5.7bpg from Boston College, 6'10 F/C already had a 12 blocks and 13 blocks game this season.

I also like the Chinese guy Jianlian, probably the most likely Allstar in the draft. Damn I cant wait for the draft this season, hardly any players I dont like.

My favorites Greg Oden, Brandan Wright, Kevin Durant, Bill Walker, Julian Wright, Darren Collison, Jameson Curry, Dominic James, Mustafa Shakur, Chase Buddinger, Morris Almond.

On Noah I change opinions every week but overall he is too skinny for me and the opposite of smooth for me to really like him. I hope he goes top 3 because that would definately drop Brandan Wrigh or Kevin Durant to #4 and those 2 guys are definately the real deal. I mean I would rather have Amare and KG at the 4/5 than Amare and a better Tyson Chandler.

Brandan Wright
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q249-Kk3Ub8 in Nike 05 Extravaganza
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMB8KvQReUU Wright against Gonzaga

We are in a such a great position with Atlanda's pick currenty at #4 and Oden locked as #1 and Durant locked as a top 3 pick we will definately get to chose between 5 of these Noah, Wright, Walker, Horford, Wright, Thabeet.

Insider has a story about Noah's stock slipping though, damn.
#1 Philly - Greg Oden C
#2 Charlotte - Kevin Durant SF
#3 Memphis- Bill Walker SG
#4 Phoenix via Atlanta - Brandan Wright F/C
#5 Boston -Joakim Noah C
#6 New Orleans - Al Horford PF
#7 Seattle - Julian Wright SF
#8 Portland - Yi Jianlian F
#9 Chicago via New York- Spencer Hawes C

 

[Divide Et Impera]

Nbadrat.net has the Suns taking Noah, Splitter and Almond as of right now and if that were to happen, I would just be sick with joy....

If we had a roster of:

Nash
Bell
Marion
Stoudemire
Noah
Barbosa
Almond
Thomas
Splitter
JuJones
JaJones
Banks

 

[Divide Et Impera]

I think I would rather get Horford than Noah, but if the draft went like Nbadraft.net has it going, I'd be thrilled. Besides, Noah is more naturally a C, whereas Horford is more a PF....