Free Agency 2018

Errntknght

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You are crediting him in March only. Im crediting him all season.

He was night and day better than at UCLA. I do agree with you on seeing consistency in his defense. We need to see more than one year of him defending well. Again, im looking at the entire year, not just "March".

You can take these stats however you want (because its only one year of data), but they are quite impressive:

Among Point Guards:

91st percentile in BLK%
83rd percentile in STL%
96th percentile in DREB%
3rd in DRPM
3.9 points/100 better defensive with him on the floor (82nd percentile)
He had the same amount of shots per game against him at G as Ben Simmons. Simmons allowed 41.5% shooting compares to Lonzo's 41.9%

Again, take them however you want. Im just saying my eye test is aligning with the numbers, which is usually a good sign.

Yes, Lonzo is third in DRPM but guess who is second - Tyus Jones. And Jones is positive in ORPM, while Lonzo is significantly negative.
In RPM, which is ORPM and DRPM added together the first six guys are just about who you'd guess:
Paul, Hardin, Curry, Lowry, Westbrook, Lilliard.
Then comes Tyus Jones
Kemba Warlker and Jrue Holiday
Then comes Fred VanVleet
Ben Simmons and Bledsoe
Then comes Spencer Dinwiddie
Kyrie Irving, Rubio, and Darren Collison
Then come Dejounte Morray and Delon Wright

In short all the young guys I've been pushing are exactly the young guys who are rated up among the star PGs - (except Murray, who I didn't suggest. Being on the Spurs I figured he was inacessible.)
Where does Lonzo fall? At #21, 3 behind Delon Wright. To tell the truth, I figured he'd be much further down the list.
Another small surprise is that Shaq Harrison is at #31.
I made a reference list for all the PGs we've discussed of late, the number being their rank on RPM.
22 Yogi Ferrel
23 Marcus Smart
27 Shabazz Napier
35 Milos Teodosic
40 Jerian Grant (I mentioned him a couple of times months ago)
46 Malcolm Brogdon
47 Rajon Rongo
51 Patrick Beverly
60 Dante Exum
61 TJ McConnell
73 Elfrid Payton
88 Tyler Ulis
99 De'Aaron Fox
No one has mentioned Fox, but I was very surprised at his terrible rating. A lot of us had him rated high at draft time.
 

Mr. Boldin

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Yes, Lonzo is third in DRPM but guess who is second - Tyus Jones. And Jones is positive in ORPM, while Lonzo is significantly negative.
In RPM, which is ORPM and DRPM added together the first six guys are just about who you'd guess:
Paul, Hardin, Curry, Lowry, Westbrook, Lilliard.
Then comes Tyus Jones
Kemba Warlker and Jrue Holiday
Then comes Fred VanVleet
Ben Simmons and Bledsoe
Then comes Spencer Dinwiddie
Kyrie Irving, Rubio, and Darren Collison
Then come Dejounte Morray and Delon Wright

In short all the young guys I've been pushing are exactly the young guys who are rated up among the star PGs - (except Murray, who I didn't suggest. Being on the Spurs I figured he was inacessible.)
Where does Lonzo fall? At #21, 3 behind Delon Wright. To tell the truth, I figured he'd be much further down the list.
Another small surprise is that Shaq Harrison is at #31.
I made a reference list for all the PGs we've discussed of late, the number being their rank on RPM.
22 Yogi Ferrel
23 Marcus Smart
27 Shabazz Napier
35 Milos Teodosic
40 Jerian Grant (I mentioned him a couple of times months ago)
46 Malcolm Brogdon
47 Rajon Rongo
51 Patrick Beverly
60 Dante Exum
61 TJ McConnell
73 Elfrid Payton
88 Tyler Ulis
99 De'Aaron Fox
No one has mentioned Fox, but I was very surprised at his terrible rating. A lot of us had him rated high at draft time.

Personally, I dont rate a single season of any RPM that highly without some context (including additional years of RPM data). Was just adding more items to the list which match my eye test.
 

Phrazbit

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Yes, Lonzo is third in DRPM but guess who is second - Tyus Jones. And Jones is positive in ORPM, while Lonzo is significantly negative.
In RPM, which is ORPM and DRPM added together the first six guys are just about who you'd guess:
Paul, Hardin, Curry, Lowry, Westbrook, Lilliard.
Then comes Tyus Jones
Kemba Warlker and Jrue Holiday
Then comes Fred VanVleet
Ben Simmons and Bledsoe
Then comes Spencer Dinwiddie
Kyrie Irving, Rubio, and Darren Collison
Then come Dejounte Morray and Delon Wright

In short all the young guys I've been pushing are exactly the young guys who are rated up among the star PGs - (except Murray, who I didn't suggest. Being on the Spurs I figured he was inacessible.)
Where does Lonzo fall? At #21, 3 behind Delon Wright. To tell the truth, I figured he'd be much further down the list.
Another small surprise is that Shaq Harrison is at #31.
I made a reference list for all the PGs we've discussed of late, the number being their rank on RPM.
22 Yogi Ferrel
23 Marcus Smart
27 Shabazz Napier
35 Milos Teodosic
40 Jerian Grant (I mentioned him a couple of times months ago)
46 Malcolm Brogdon
47 Rajon Rongo
51 Patrick Beverly
60 Dante Exum
61 TJ McConnell
73 Elfrid Payton
88 Tyler Ulis
99 De'Aaron Fox
No one has mentioned Fox, but I was very surprised at his terrible rating. A lot of us had him rated high at draft time.

I'll raise my hand as someone that thought Fox nothing special, and I'll throw Shai Gigs in the same pile.
 

Mainstreet

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Let's swing a trade for De'Aaron Fox while he is worthless.
 

Mainstreet

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I suspect his value will only decrease as time goes on. This is probably his peak.

It's beyond my comprehension to think De'Aaron Fox has reached his peak at age 20.
 

Phrazbit

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It's beyond my comprehension to think De'Aaron Fox has reached his peak at age 20.

I was referring to his value, not his skill.

I am... low... on Fox. So, as he gets more exposure I expect his value to decline as people realize he is nothing special.
 

Mainstreet

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I was referring to his value, not his skill.

I am... low... on Fox. So, as he gets more exposure I expect his value to decline as people realize he is nothing special.

In my book value and skill are closely related. Maybe I should ask you his value?
 

Phrazbit

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In my book value and skill are closely related. Maybe I should ask you his value?

I don't know what he would fetch on the open market right now, but you've gotta agree that young NBA players are like playing futures on stocks.

If you look at Fox, purely based on what he was last season, then he's almost worthless, the guy was absolutely awful. However, he's a young player who a year ago went 5th in a strong draft. So, his value and observed skill are widely apart at the moment.

So, myself, being someone who never though Fox would be all that great in the first place, I think his value, right now, is probably as high as it's going to be, because as he gets further removed from being the "5th pick" I think he will transition into a borderline bust.
 

Mainstreet

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I don't know what he would fetch on the open market right now, but you've gotta agree that young NBA players are like playing futures on stocks.

If you look at Fox, purely based on what he was last season, then he's almost worthless, the guy was absolutely awful. However, he's a young player who a year ago went 5th in a strong draft. So, his value and observed skill are widely apart at the moment.

So, myself, being someone who never though Fox would be all that great in the first place, I think his value, right now, is probably as high as it's going to be, because as he gets further removed from being the "5th pick" I think he will transition into a borderline bust.

I don't think a player can be judged on one season. His first season was not as bad as some believe. If he were a stock, I would be buying all I can get. Sure advanced analytics can be used to knock him down but I don't think it's a valid barometer of a first year player on a bad team.

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4066259/deaaron-fox
 

Phrazbit

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I don't think a player can be judged on one season. His first season was not as bad as some believe.. If he were a stock, I would be buying all I can get. Sure advanced analytics can be used to knock him down but I don't think it's a valid barometer of a first year player on a bad team.

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4066259/deaaron-fox

Like I said, I didn't see him as being a decent player BEFORE he had a terrible rookie season, so, what I've seen only confirms my initial instinct. IMO, Fox isn't good at any facet of the game and spectacularly bad in some others. Of the things I want to see in a point guard he shows nothing of. Bad shooter, bad passer and totally disinterested on defense. Personally, the only reason I'd take him in a trade is to flip him to someone else.
 

Mainstreet

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Like I said, I didn't see him as being a decent player BEFORE he had a terrible rookie season, so, what I've seen only confirms my initial instinct. IMO, Fox isn't good at any facet of the game and spectacularly bad in some others. Of the things I want to see in a point guard he shows nothing of. Bad shooter, bad passer and totally disinterested on defense. Personally, the only reason I'd take him in a trade is to flip him to someone else.

I totally disagree but it will give us something to talk about in years to come.
 

Phrazbit

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I totally disagree but it will give us something to talk about in years to come.

I've been wrong about #5 picks by the Kings before, I thought Thomas Robinson would be a stud. But... I think I'm going to be right on Fox. Guards who can't shoot need to be REALLY good in some other areas, he's not good at anything.
 

AzStevenCal

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I totally disagree but it will give us something to talk about in years to come.

I'm not quite as down on him as Phrazbit but I must admit, I've never really understood your interest in him. To me, his ceiling is Elfrid Payton-ish. His inability to shoot not only limits his game, it impacts his teammates in a way that doesn't show up in his stats. If he can learn to shoot, his quickness could make him an effective player but he'll always struggle initiating offense for teammates IMO.
 

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I've been wrong about #5 picks by the Kings before, I thought Thomas Robinson would be a stud. But... I think I'm going to be right on Fox. Guards who can't shoot need to be REALLY good in some other areas, he's not good at anything.

Fox should excel at getting to the rim and defend in time. His shooting should be good enough to keep defenses honest. I never thought Fox was a finished product when drafted. In time I think he will be a very good guard... not a pure PG but more of a scoring PG.
 

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I'm not quite as down on him as Phrazbit but I must admit, I've never really understood your interest in him. To me, his ceiling is Elfrid Payton-ish. His inability to shoot not only limits his game, it impacts his teammates in a way that doesn't show up in his stats. If he can learn to shoot, his quickness could make him an effective player but he'll always struggle initiating offense for teammates IMO.

Fox is a better shooter than Payton right now from 3 point range. As I said I view him more as a shooting PG. He is a very explosive player player that should only get better. Josh Jackson's first year stats are not that much better but most on the forum are projecting him to be a star.
 

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According to Evan Sidery the Suns could have close to $40 million in CAP space in 2019.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media
 

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Like I said, I didn't see him as being a decent player BEFORE he had a terrible rookie season, so, what I've seen only confirms my initial instinct. IMO, Fox isn't good at any facet of the game and spectacularly bad in some others. Of the things I want to see in a point guard he shows nothing of. Bad shooter, bad passer and totally disinterested on defense. Personally, the only reason I'd take him in a trade is to flip him to someone else.

Far be it from me to defend Fox (a guy I didn't want and still don't), but "terrible"? No way. He wasn't great either mind you, but he certainly wasn't terrible. He played like a typical 19 year old top 10 pick, with a healthy mix of lows and highs.

Here's a pretty good write up on him:

https://www.sactownroyalty.com/2018/4/20/17253798/sacramento-kings-deaaron-fox-player-grades

This excerpt stood out to me when he was attempting to prove Fox is clutch:

"Our rookie was the most efficient player in the NBA in close game situations. With a point differential of three or less and with less than 30 seconds ticks left on the clock, Fox made 6 out of 7 shots this season (86%)."
 

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I'm not seeing that much available space without a sizable cap increase. As things are now, the cap will be $108 million in 2019. We'll have a better idea of what will be next week when the 2018 cap is set. That's a fairly close estimate though. We have about $54 million in contracts that don't include Booker's extension or Ayton, Bridges, and Okobo. I won't bother trying to fit King, that's $1 million bucks at the most.

Jokic signed his max for an estimated 5 years/$147 million. Bookers will be pretty close to that also. Both are young and coming off rookie deals and neither meet the super max qualifiers so they get 25% of the cap. That will start his contract off at approximately $27 million. Add that to the $54 and you're looking at a $81 million payroll without counting the rookies. Fultz makes $8.4 million for his 2nd year as the #1 overall pick and Zach Collins makes $3.7 as the #10 pick, throw in $1 million for Okobo also. That will go up a little bit but $13 million for all 3 seems fair, if not low. That's $94 million without counting minimum cap holds, rookie holds for any picks we make in next years draft. So we'd be at $24 million in cap space, at the absolute most. That's without cap holds or rookie salaries from next year, so it's probably about $5-6 million less than that. Stretching Knight helps but that might just get us to $30 million in cap space or so.

I don't believe the figure Espo is quoting is factoring in this year's rookies. Don't take "insiders" like Espo's word for it though, or mine, look it up yourself. After what Espo pulled today, I don't put much stock in anything he says*. I can't argue with math but the numbers he's posted don't add up right. I'm not saying I am an authority or anything but the figures are out there to do the math on your own. I tried to link all mentions of salaries I could, like Fultz and Collins for reference, and here's the 2019 payroll for the Suns.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/phoenix-suns/cap/2019/


*Espo teased last night that the free agent signing period would start today for the Suns, after retweeting the other message from another "fan" saying that the first piece would fall today to figure out where Lebron is headed because the Suns were making a deal. Today, when it came time to say what was happening, Espo said he signed with Bright Side of the Suns to cover the Suns. That was his big tease about the Suns free agent period would start today. Total bait and switch move that's rather hokey. If his math was right though, I'd agree with him because there's really no disputing that but it doesn't appear to be and it seems like he's missing close to the amount our recent draft picks would cover, which would explain the $12 million discrepancy. They're not listed on salaries on Spotrac either, so it's an easy thing to overlook.
 
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Mr. Boldin

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I'm not seeing that much available space without a sizable cap increase. As things are now, the cap will be $108 million in 2019. We'll have a better idea of what will be next week when the 2018 cap is set. That's a fairly close estimate though. We have about $54 million in contracts that don't include Booker's extension or Ayton, Bridges, and Okobo. I won't bother trying to fit King, that's $1 million bucks at the most.

Jokic signed his max for an estimated 5 years/$147 million. Bookers will be pretty close to that also. Both are young and coming off rookie deals and neither meet the super max qualifiers so they get 25% of the cap. That will start his contract off at approximately $27 million. Add that to the $54 and you're looking at a $81 million payroll without counting the rookies. Fultz makes $8.4 million for his 2nd year as the #1 overall pick and Zach Collins makes $3.7 as the #10 pick, throw in $1 million for Okobo also. at will got up a little bit but $13 million for all 3 seems fair, if not low. That's $94 million without counting minimum cap holds, rookie holds for any picks we make in next years draft. So we'd be at $24 million in cap space, at the absolute most. That's without cap holds or rookie salaries from next year, so it's probably about $5-6 million less than that. Stretching Knight helps but that might just get us to $30 million in cap space or so.

Yeah, with cap holds for #1 picks next year, $30 mil is more likely. Booker would need to take less than max, cap would need to exceed $108 mil, or Suns would need to trade their #1s or draft rights before using cap space, to add more money available.

Decline team options on Bender, Chriss, Ulis, Harrison (-$13.24 mil)
Stretch Knight, double the years remaining +1 (-$10.43 mil; cap hit of $5.21 mil over three years)
Waive Williams whom is nonguaranteed (-$5.52 mil)
Waive Reed, whom is nonguaranteed (-$1.61 mil)

Booker @ $27 mil
Warren @ $10.81 mil
Ayton @ $9.48 mil
Jackson @ $7.06 mil
Bridges @ $4.32 mil
Okobo ~$1.4 mil
Minimum roster charge @~$1 mil x 6 = $6 mil
Stretch charge for Knight of $5.21 mil

Total team salary = $71.28
Cap available ($108 mil cap) = ~$36.72 mil (pending exact figured on Oboko deal, rookie minimum roster charges. Not including first round pick slot cap holds)
 

Errntknght

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Personally, I dont rate a single season of any RPM that highly without some context (including additional years of RPM data). Was just adding more items to the list which match my eye test.

I've never been a fan of RPM. I use DRPM because it's difficult to get defensive stats - for bigs I used to use defense at the rim via tracking data but I can't find the same base data I used before. In making my suggestions I used DRPM along with cumulative box score stats plus a bit of observation. I was quite surprised how well the top of the RPM matched my mental ratings and the general concensus. And I was happy to see most of the young guys I'd picked out rated high. Maybe the stat is better than I gave it credit for. Granted more years of data would be better - I'm contemplating automating the use of multiple years so I don't have to do the matching, sorting and averaging by hand.
 

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I'm not seeing that much available space without a sizable cap increase. As things are now, the cap will be $108 million in 2019. We'll have a better idea of what will be next week when the 2018 cap is set. That's a fairly close estimate though. We have about $54 million in contracts that don't include Booker's extension or Ayton, Bridges, and Okobo. I won't bother trying to fit King, that's $1 million bucks at the most.

Jokic signed his max for an estimated 5 years/$147 million. Bookers will be pretty close to that also. Both are young and coming off rookie deals and neither meet the super max qualifiers so they get 25% of the cap. That will start his contract off at approximately $27 million. Add that to the $54 and you're looking at a $81 million payroll without counting the rookies. Fultz makes $8.4 million for his 2nd year as the #1 overall pick and Zach Collins makes $3.7 as the #10 pick, throw in $1 million for Okobo also. That will go up a little bit but $13 million for all 3 seems fair, if not low. That's $94 million without counting minimum cap holds, rookie holds for any picks we make in next years draft. So we'd be at $24 million in cap space, at the absolute most. That's without cap holds or rookie salaries from next year, so it's probably about $5-6 million less than that. Stretching Knight helps but that might just get us to $30 million in cap space or so.

I don't believe the figure Espo is quoting is factoring in this year's rookies. Don't take "insiders" like Espo's word for it though, or mine, look it up yourself. After what Espo pulled today, I don't put much stock in anything he says*. I can't argue with math but the numbers he's posted don't add up right. I'm not saying I am an authority or anything but the figures are out there to do the math on your own. I tried to link all mentions of salaries I could, like Fultz and Collins for reference, and here's the 2019 payroll for the Suns.

http://www.spotrac.com/nba/phoenix-suns/cap/2019/


*Espo teased last night that the free agent signing period would start today for the Suns, after retweeting the other message from another "fan" saying that the first piece would fall today to figure out where Lebron is headed because the Suns were making a deal. Today, when it came time to say what was happening, Espo said he signed with Bright Side of the Suns to cover the Suns. That was his big tease about the Suns free agent period would start today. Total bait and switch move that's rather hokey. If his math was right though, I'd agree with him because there's really no disputing that but it doesn't appear to be and it seems like he's missing close to the amount our recent draft picks would cover, which would explain the $12 million discrepancy. They're not listed on salaries on Spotrac either, so it's an easy thing to overlook.

I admit the numbers didn't quite add up in my mind either but I'm no expert on how everything is calculated . Still I wanted you to have a look because it still seems encouraging if it checks out...but it may not as you allude to.
 
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