Sumlin has beaten up on weak competition (which he didn't do last season, BTW) just like Koetter and Hawkins did at Boise State. Can Sumlin win and recruit against elite competition? That's the unknown, isn't it? Koetter and Hawkins failed at it.
The only question is can Sumlin recruit on the West Coast. He was a dynamite recruiter for Oklahoma. He's not a guy who would be caught off guard by the big leagues. I'm not sure why he draws comparisons to Koetter and Hawkins and not Chip Kelly, who's previous experience had been as a long-time assistant at New Hampshire before spending two years as OC at Oregon. Or Jim Harbaugh, who's only HC experience came at a tiny San Diego Catholic school before taking on Stanford.
I'm not saying he's any of those guys, but a coach's quality isn't graduated like the level of competiton on the field. Some of the best minds in football are fat and happy at FCS schools. In fact, that's usually where innovation happens most, before we see it in college or the NFL.
I do think Sumlin is a big risk, if only because we haven't seen him build his own program yet. I fear him coming in and having success with Erickson's recruits then bailing before we get to see him with his own ... much like he's doing at Houston with Briles' recruits.