Hightower looks great

[crisper57]

You can't for their overall average, but you can if you do it to other runningback's numbers at the same time you do it with Hightower's.

And I've done that in the past. The fact of the matter is that when you take away just a handful--5, say--of Hightower's longest runs (and that's out of some 350), his YPC average goes from good to horrible.

If you do the same with the good backs around the league--MJD, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, etc.--it doesn't happen. Their YPC goes down a little, but they have so many more 5, 6, 7 yard runs that it only brings it down by a point or two.

Hightower's rushes are inflated by a handful of big runs scattered among a slew of short or negative runs. He's an ineffective back not only because he fumbles all the time, but also because he consistently leaves your offense in second-and-long situations that most other backs don't nearly as often.

Don't want to wade into this too far, but statistically speaking, if you toss out his five highest runs, shouldn't you also toss out his five lowest runs as well? Getting rid of the outliers on one end of the spectrum skews the results.

Of course, I don't know if that will make a difference, since his low carries were much closer to his overall YPC average than his highs.

:I'm a nerd:

 

[Duckjake]

Quote:
Originally Posted by WarnerHOF View Post
Timmy on 6-10 carries has never been the problem. He's just absolutely terrible at grinding out consistent yardage.


Johnh response:Sort of like the infamous Thomas Jones. He could not run a lick.

Like I posted the Arizona Cardinals have never had anyone other than Edge maybe that could consistently grind out yardage. It's not the Running Backs its the culture. You just don't have 4 different coaches consistently produce bottom 5 rushing attacks over ten plus years and it be anything else.

 

[dogpoo32]

Like I posted the Arizona Cardinals have never had anyone other than Edge maybe that could consistently grind out yardage. It's not the Running Backs its the culture. You just don't have 4 different coaches consistently produce bottom 5 rushing attacks over ten plus years and it be anything else.

You're definitely on to something.

 

[kerouac9]

I don't like the idea of subtracting 5 carries and coming to a conclusion based on it. I could see some relevance if you wanted to compare average yards per carry on runs while excluding all long runs (10+ or 20+?). However, you'd also have to look at the (average) point where the back first gets hit. With our line and our system, I doubt any running back could be gauged fairly.

Steve

But if you exclude all long runs, then you're basically discounting everything. My argument is that Hightower's runs in good games are usually 35, 0, 1, 2, -3, 0, 0, -1. The average there is 4.25 YPC, which is just fine. But is that really how you want your starting running back performing?

Again, if you compare him across other NFL starting backs, Hightower is clearly much, much worse.

Of course, if you want to keep adding on excuses for why Hightower is not a starting back, then keep making them. I'm just telling you that ceteris paribus, Hightower only looks like a good runner if you pretend that his rare long run is spread across all of his short or negative rushes.

 

[D-Dogg]

I'm with K-9 on this one.

Sure, he might improve that in Shanahan's scheme, but so far on VERY limited carries, it seems to be the same pattern.

A 80 yard TD run, followed by 0, 2, 2 and punt punt punt means not a lot of running opportunities left. The long run is nice, but what is nicer is working from 2nd and 6 or 2nd and 5 fairly consistently.

And this isn't a THT thing, either...it's a Cardinals running thing. OLine needs to open holes or the RB has to have superior vision at the point of attack. It's the main reason I'm so bummed that RW went down-he's the kind of guy that will get you 5 a pop, and on bad carries he'll get you 3.

 

[D-Dogg]

BTW, ran the same numbers for beanie and he goes from a 4.1 YPC to a 3.67.

His longest runs are 33, 24, 29, 26 and 23.

Right after his 29 yarder? 0. 1. 2. FG.

That doesn't get it done.

 

[AzStevenCal]

But if you exclude all long runs, then you're basically discounting everything. My argument is that Hightower's runs in good games are usually 35, 0, 1, 2, -3, 0, 0, -1. The average there is 4.25 YPC, which is just fine. But is that really how you want your starting running back performing?

Again, if you compare him across other NFL starting backs, Hightower is clearly much, much worse.

Of course, if you want to keep adding on excuses for why Hightower is not a starting back, then keep making them. I'm just telling you that ceteris paribus, Hightower only looks like a good runner if you pretend that his rare long run is spread across all of his short or negative rushes.

Not really. It's not like we actually care about average yards per carry. We care about moving the chains, keeping a drive alive and eventually scoring. If his long runs are hiding his inability to be a positive factor in moving the chains then yes, it's a problem. But, if there are no holes and if your running back is constantly being hit while still in the backfield, you can't expect average yards per carry to tell the whole story.

I think Hightower is a very nice asset if he can hold on to the ball and catch the ball. He was doing neither for us so I had no problem with moving him to Washington. But, just as a runner, I'd say he's no more than a pretty solid backup. I don't think he'll last the season as the starter in Washington because I don't think he'll solve his problems. Helu, once he picks up the offense, will take over and he'll outperform Timmy. That will put Hightower where he belongs, as the backup. I just don't agree with the people that are presenting him as a great running back anymore than I agree with the people that are labeling him as something close to useless.

Steve

 

[Cheesebeef]

I just don't agree with the people that are presenting him as a great running back anymore than I disagree with the people that are labeling him as something close to useless.

Steve

wel said.

 

[jefftheshark]

This discussion is kind of where statistics and real life veer away from each other IMO. Yards per carry are meaningless when placed in the perspective of when the yards were gained. To me, getting that time-consuming 4 yards a pop in the fourth quarter to salt away a win is far more important than the 40 yards gainer in the second quarter followed by two one-yard gains that result in a punt.

Sometimes it just comes down to passing the "sight" test. If you can trust a RB to get you that critical 4 yards when you most need it then the guy is great. If everytime you're faced with that same 4 yards and you cringe, then that tells you something. THT was in the cringe category for me.

JTS

 

[crisper57]

This discussion is kind of where statistics and real life veer away from each other IMO. Yards per carry are meaningless when placed in the perspective of when the yards were gained. To me, getting that time-consuming 4 yards a pop in the fourth quarter to salt away a win is far more important than the 40 yards gainer in the second quarter followed by two one-yard gains that result in a punt.

Sometimes it just comes down to passing the "sight" test. If you can trust a RB to get you that critical 4 yards when you most need it then the guy is great. If everytime you're faced with that same 4 yards and you cringe, then that tells you something. THT was in the cringe category for me.

JTS

Agreed. If it is 3rd-and-Goal on the 1, are we penalizing a player for "only" getting a 1-yard run when he punches it in? There are just too many other factors to consider. Timmy was a great short-yardage back. He got the tough yards when we needed them.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Like I posted the Arizona Cardinals have never had anyone other than Edge maybe that could consistently grind out yardage. It's not the Running Backs its the culture. You just don't have 4 different coaches consistently produce bottom 5 rushing attacks over ten plus years and it be anything else.

yeah, it's called having a craptastic offensive line. i was stunned to read that we hadn't taken any olinemen except crappy levi brown higher than something like the 6th round in the last five drafts and NO offensive linemen in the draft since 2009. i just don't think you can win that way. i see other teams consistently drafting olinemen high (sometimes even two in the first round) and then grabbing many in the back rounds. we don't do that. we just think grimm will coach up crap. awesome.

 

[Duckjake]

BTW, ran the same numbers for beanie and he goes from a 4.1 YPC to a 3.67.

His longest runs are 33, 24, 29, 26 and 23.

Right after his 29 yarder? 0. 1. 2. FG.

That doesn't get it done.

That has been a problem the last two years. Regardless of which back was running the football. 8yards, 6yards, -1,0,*punt. You can see it over and over in the play by play on NFL.com.

*Compounding the problem last season was this: after the -1 and 0: 3rd and 11 Arizona 25 Anderson pass complete to Breaston for 7 yards, Graham punt.

Then: LSH kick return to Arizona 32, Anderson pass short right incomplete, Anderson pass middle left incomplete, 3rd and 10 AZ 32 Anderson pass to Fitzgerald complete 8 yards, Graham punt.

 

[AzStevenCal]

That has been a problem the last two years. Regardless of which back was running the football. 8yards, 6yards, -1,0,*punt. You can see it over and over in the play by play on NFL.com.

*Compounding the problem last season was this: after the -1 and 0: 3rd and 11 Arizona 25 Anderson pass complete to Breaston for 7 yards, Graham punt.

Then: LSH kick return to Arizona 32, Anderson pass short right incomplete, Anderson pass middle left incomplete, 3rd and 10 AZ 32 Anderson pass to Fitzgerald complete 8 yards, Graham punt.

It probably didn't help that we put up a big RUN SIGN every time we tried to move the ball on the ground.

Steve

 

[40yearfan]

Adrian Peterson fumbled once every 45.75 carries his first three years in the NFL. He also has a 4.8 YPC average and scored 41 TDs in those first three years.

Tim Hightower in his first three years scored 23 TDs, averaged 3.9 YPC, and fumbled every 36.58 carries.

When someone is excellent at every other aspect of the game, you live with him while he learns to protect the football. When a guy is an average running back in every other way while dropping the second-highest percentage of his targets in the NFL in the passing game, then you can't wait for him to figure out how to hold on to the football.

And Hightower had 42 targets last season and dropped 6 passes. In 2010 he was tied for 4th in the league in drops overall (9), and 14th in the NFL in percentage of passes dropped (11.3%). Hightower had 80 targets and 63 receptions in 2009, and he still managed to have one of the highest drop rates in the NFL.

You completely missed the point of my post K9. All I was stating is that a fumbling problem can be corrected and as an example, look how Adrian Peterson corrected his. I wasn't comparing THT to AP.

 

[kerouac9]

You completely missed the point of my post K9. All I was stating is that a fumbling problem can be corrected and as an example, look how Adrian Peterson corrected his. I wasn't comparing THT to AP.

What you were did was literally compare THT to Adrian Peterson.

 

[Mitch]

THT got the most important yard in Arizona Cardinals' football history. Then---the most important TD. It's been tough to see those dreads flowing on the back end of a Redskins' helmet.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

BTW, ran the same numbers for beanie and he goes from a 4.1 YPC to a 3.67.

His longest runs are 33, 24, 29, 26 and 23.

Right after his 29 yarder? 0. 1. 2. FG.

That doesn't get it done.

The problem with this is the other backs all have almost double the carries of THT and BW, so you'd have to subtract their 10 biggest runs to get a more accurate comparison.

 

[daves]

The problem with this is the other backs all have almost double the carries of THT and BW, so you'd have to subtract their 10 biggest runs to get a more accurate comparison.

Exactly.

You can't do it in each game, but isn't it fair to look at an entire season worth or production and say that if you take away 5 runs out of 150 (just over three percent of his total rushes) that maybe he's not getting the job done?

Arian Foster had 1616 yards on 327 carries and averaged 4.9 YPC. Take away his 5 biggest runs (74, 56, 37, 42, and 29 yards),

What happened to taking away 3%? Shouldn't you take away his top 10 carries?

and he 4.27 YPC. Still a solid average for an NFL running back, right?

A drop of .63 ypc would've made him the 24th-ranked RB with over 100 carries last year... a bottom-10 starter. Whereas Foster was ranked 7th (and Hightower 8th!) before you removed the best runs.

Peyton Hillis had 1177 yards on 270 carries and averaged 4.4 YPC. Take away his five biggest runs (48, 35, 25, 24, and 18), and he goes down to 3.8 YPC. Just 0.6 YPC dropoff.

Timmy had 736 yards on 153 carries and averaged 4.8 YPC. Take away his five biggest runs (80, 41, 32, 24, and 20), and he's at 3.6 YPC. A full 1.2 YPC dropoff.

So taking away Foster and Hillis' top ~1.5% runs reduces their average by about 0.6 ypc, while taking away Hightower's top 3% reduces his by 1.2 ypc. Seems inconclusive at best.

Interesting, that Hightower's 5th best run went for 20 yards and Hillis' went for 18 - on twice as many carries. Seems as though Hightower not only has a significantly higher average, but a higher likelihood of breaking a long run than Hillis.

Take away just his two longest carries of the season, and he runs for 4.1 YPC--a full 0.7 YPC dropoff.

The issue isn't whether THT is an NFL-caliber running back. The issue is whether he's a starting-caliber NFL running back. Clearly, his production is not consistent enough to keep the team out of a ton of second-and-long passing situations which murdered our QBs last season.

Seems as though what you're really looking for is a standard deviation. Or a graph plotting the length of each run on the Y axis, scaled on the X axis for number of carries. I'd be curious to see how they compare, but from the numbers you've posted i'd expect Hightower to be reasonably comparable to Foster. If not, that would be interesting too (and i'm certainly not arguing that Hightower is as good as Foster!).

Three more comparisons, just for fun:

Jamaal Charles: 1467/230/6.4 ----> 5.39 YPC.
Chris Johnson: 1364/316/4.3 ----> 3.6 YPC
Adrian Peterson: 1298/283/4.6 ----> 3.9 YPC

So removing Charles' top 2% of runs reduces his ypc by over 1.0; removing CJ's top 1.6% reduces his ypc by 0.7, and and removing AP's top 1.8% reduces his by 0.7. These numbers don't convince me of anything.

Timmy's a boom-or-bust runner, but his booms aren't as frequent as other starting-caliber NFL backs, and his busts are far more.

With these numbers, you haven't shown that at all.

...dave

 

[kerouac9]

Dave, if you think that Tim Hightower is a starting-caliber runner, than I don't know what to tell you.

An RB metric that I find particularly useful is FootballOutsiders' "Success Rate" metric, which basically means how frequently did the RB gain 4 yards or more on first down, 60% of the yardage needed or more on second down, and 100% or more of the yardage required for a first down on third and fourth down.

I love this metric because I don't worry as much about my RB gaining yards in chunks if they can move the chains on first and second down. Interestingly, the Saints' Corey Ivy lead the NFL in success rate, getting the needed yardage 59% of the time (!). Arian Foster was 9 (52%); Jamaal Charles was 3rd (56% of the time--this guy needs to get more carries.

There are some boom-and-bust type players. Surprisingly, Adrian Peterson and his bad offensive line in Minnesota ranked 22nd (45%), although his big plays ranked him 5th in DVOA.

Anyway, you can look over the rankings for yourself: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

Needless to say, Tim Hightower ranked... 36th. He is what he is: an upper-echelon backup runningback but a guy that you don't want starting 16 games for you. This should come as a surprise to no one.

 

[40yearfan]

What you were did was literally compare THT to Adrian Peterson.

K9 it never ceases to amaze me how you can argue with me about what my intent was.

 

[Cards_Campos]

Well..I was being sarcastic on the excluding the long gains, but I don't think it is Hightowers fault. We have NEVER had a runner just burst out 5 yard runs back to back to back consistently. Hightower was a hard runner that gave it everything he had on every run which was a major reason why he fumbled alot. He always tried to get that extra yard (I know K9 what is 1 more yard when you haven't reached the line of scrimmage yet.) But I think Hightower could average 5 yards a carry on a few teams. I think he would be almost all pro on New England's or Green bay's teams. If he has an opening he is gone and that is why I think you have to give him credit for those long runs. His ability to break long runs shows that if given just a little seam he is off to the races.

I don't think there would be many backs to run for 5 yards behind our line. Our style has been pass first so our OL are not very good at blocking for runs. We have had some really good backs leave and do great somewhere else. My original post was to state it might look like Hightower is the next one. You could study the stats, subtract long runs, divide carries...it won't matter. Tomas Jones, Hearst, Emmitt, Edge...they all had way to many 0,1,2 yard runs for us. You have to go back to OJ Anderson before you see a good consistent runner for us. So I don't think its the runner(Hightower in this case)...I think it is our OL ability or scheme.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Dave, if you think that Tim Hightower is a starting-caliber runner, than I don't know what to tell you.

An RB metric that I find particularly useful is FootballOutsiders' "Success Rate" metric, which basically means how frequently did the RB gain 4 yards or more on first down, 60% of the yardage needed or more on second down, and 100% or more of the yardage required for a first down on third and fourth down.

I love this metric because I don't worry as much about my RB gaining yards in chunks if they can move the chains on first and second down. Interestingly, the Saints' Corey Ivy lead the NFL in success rate, getting the needed yardage 59% of the time (!). Arian Foster was 9 (52%); Jamaal Charles was 3rd (56% of the time--this guy needs to get more carries.

There are some boom-and-bust type players. Surprisingly, Adrian Peterson and his bad offensive line in Minnesota ranked 22nd (45%), although his big plays ranked him 5th in DVOA.

Anyway, you can look over the rankings for yourself: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

Needless to say, Tim Hightower ranked... 36th. He is what he is: an upper-echelon backup runningback but a guy that you don't want starting 16 games for you. This should come as a surprise to no one.

I agree with that. If he could catch the ball more consistently and cut down on his fumbles I'd move him a little higher but he's never going to be in the upper half of starting backs, IMO. He is looking better in Shanahan's system but let's see how that plays out in the regular season.

Steve

 

[kerouac9]

K9 it never ceases to amaze me how you can argue with me about what my intent was.

It doesn't matter what your intent was. Your actual action was to compare the two players. What exactly do you think the word "compare" means, 40?

 

[Krangodnzr]

Needless to say, Tim Hightower ranked... 36th. He is what he is: an upper-echelon backup runningback but a guy that you don't want starting 16 games for you. This should come as a surprise to no one.

It's funny how often we agree, but how often we agree.

The above statement is EXACTLY how I view Hightower. He's a guy I want as my second or third back, but I absolutely DO NOT want him starting for me.

The problem with our RB depth chart this year is that while Beanie has more potential, I actually view THT as a better player right now. Beanie has shown in spurts that he can be better than THT, but THT has been more consistent.

That's why I was instantly in love with picking Ryan Williams while most of the universe was scratching their head. In my view, Ryan Williams has "it". He's just one of those players, that even though he has a marginal forty yard dash, and doesn't necessarily look the part, if he stays healthy he's going to be a big time back. I can't say the same for Beanie Wells (hasn't proven it consistently) or THT (he's proven he's not a fulltime starter).

I just hope that trading THT and not Beanie doesn't bite us in the ass. The ball is Beanie's this year, but I have the feeling we'll be looking to add a starting caliber RB next year to be Ryan Williams complement/starter. I'm just not sold on Beanie Wells, and Williams injury history might force our hand.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Some of you aren't seeing the forest for the trees on the exercise of removing backs biggest runs to see their average. While it's nice to have a back that can produce big plays, offenses need backs that can make the average play.

THT clearly struggled in that area, and while he does produce big plays, I'd rather give handoffs to a guy that can consistently get me 4-5 yards on 1st down, over the guy that will occasionally break a 40 yard run, but will consistently come up short on 1st down.