Hightower looks great

[187]

You can't do it in each game, but isn't it fair to look at an entire season worth or production and say that if you take away 5 runs out of 150 (just over three percent of his total rushes) that maybe he's not getting the job done? If you have a back who will get you 5 yards per carry if you give him the ball 10 times, and a back who will give you 9 one-yard runs and a 41-yard run, which back would you rather have?

Arian Foster had 1616 yards on 327 carries and averaged 4.9 YPC. Take away his 5 biggest runs (74, 56, 37, 42, and 29 yards), and he 4.27 YPC. Still a solid average for an NFL running back, right?

Peyton Hillis had 1177 yards on 270 carries and averaged 4.4 YPC. Take away his five biggest runs (48, 35, 25, 24, and 18), and he goes down to 3.8 YPC. Just 0.6 YPC dropoff.

Timmy had 736 yards on 153 carries and averaged 4.8 YPC. Take away his five biggest runs (80, 41, 32, 24, and 20), and he's at 3.6 YPC. A full 1.2 YPC dropoff.

I'm not even arguing anything being said about Hightower, because frankly I could care less, but your little method above makes zero sense from a mathematical standpoint. No kidding that Hightower's average is going to drop significantly more than everyone else when you subtract his 5 best runs when he has half as many carries as those guys. I just looked at Foster's game log and picked the 11 longest (so he and tim have nearly the same % of runs taken out) and his average drops to 3.87. I don't even know if those were his longest runs too, because I just cherry picked the 11 longest from his game log on yahoo.

So there you go, when you actually make it a fair comparison Foster's average drops at least FULL 1.1 yards. I'm not even going to bother doing peyton's, but I imagine it will be a similar dropoff.

Like I said, I could care less about the argument, but at least make it fair.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

THT got the most important yard in Arizona Cardinals' football history. Then---the most important TD. It's been tough to see those dreads flowing on the back end of a Redskins' helmet.

Agreed.

 

[Cards_Campos]

Again...Tell me a RB that has run for 4.8> yds a rush for an entire season ever for us. How many RB have we ever had that broke long gains??? Timmy is about the only one except if you go back to OJ Anderson.

You could argue...Timmy's percentage of BREAKING a long run is much higher than anyone in football. Especially if you count how little he carried the ball.

 

[40yearfan]

It doesn't matter what your intent was. Your actual action was to compare the two players. What exactly do you think the word "compare" means, 40?

Here's my original post:

AP had 20 fumbles during his first 3 years with the Vikings. Last year, he had 1. THT had 12 fumbles his first 3 years with the Cards. Why don't we at least wait until a few regular season games have been played to see if he corrected his problem in his fourth year as apparently AP has done. And I don't know why you say he can't catch a ball out of the backfield. He's had very few chances to do so.

Do you see anywhere where I said "compare"? That is your word, not mine. My intent was not to compare, but show that a fumbling problem CAN be corrected. I did that. Quit trying to put words into my mouth and meanings into my posts that are totally yours.

 

[Jersey Girl]

THT got the most important yard in Arizona Cardinals' football history. Then---the most important TD. It's been tough to see those dreads flowing on the back end of a Redskins' helmet.

True that.

I hope he does well in Washington. I don't feel like the Cardinals ever committed to the running game enough to give him (or any of our RBs) a chance to really shine.

BTW, just picked up Timmay in my cap hell league.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

Who wants to bet this will be his stat line vs. the Cards in wk. 2:

26 carries 121yrds 2 tds; 4 catches 36yards.

 

[Cardiac]

Who wants to bet this will be his stat line vs. the Cards in wk. 2:

26 carries 121yrds 2 tds; 4 catches 36yards.

You forgot the 2 fumbles lost.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

But I would like to know what it is you're actually trying to say. Do you think they're meaningless?

Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. They are meaningless.

 

[daves]

Dave, if you think that Tim Hightower is a starting-caliber runner, than I don't know what to tell you.

I'm not even arguing anything being said about Hightower, because frankly I could care less, but your little method above makes zero sense from a mathematical standpoint. [....]

Like I said, I could care less about the argument, but at least make it fair.

K9, that's exactly how i was going to respond and 187 took the words right out of my mouth. I'm making no argument that Hightower is a great back (especially considering his unacceptable fumble rate, though i am actually kinda impressed with his average, considering the impotent passing game and questionable O-line). Just had to point out that your method was flawed and completely failed to support your point.

An RB metric that I find particularly useful is FootballOutsiders' "Success Rate" metric, which basically means how frequently did the RB gain 4 yards or more on first down, 60% of the yardage needed or more on second down, and 100% or more of the yardage required for a first down on third and fourth down. [....] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

Now that IS interesting - thanks for posting the link!

When it comes to an RB's "success rate", i wonder how much has to do with the back's ability to see holes and make cuts near the line of scrimmage, and how much has to do with the ability of the line to make holes (and the playcaller to choose a good play for the defense). The talk about Hightower being suited to the Redskins' zone blocking scheme makes me wonder whether he'll actually be a decent starter in Washington. Guess we shall see!

...dave

 

[Cheesebeef]

K9, that's exactly how i was going to respond and 187 took the words right out of my mouth. I'm making no argument that Hightower is a great back (especially considering his unacceptable fumble rate, though i am actually kinda impressed with his average, considering the impotent passing game and questionable O-line). Just had to point out that your method was flawed and completely failed to support your point.

agreed. when it comes to someone trying to create a statistical analysis, while fudging numbers, I'm always gonna side with Dave (a legit rocket scientist) versus anyone else.

 

[Duckjake]

agreed. when it comes to someone trying to create a statistical analysis, while fudging numbers, I'm always gonna side with Dave (a legit rocket scientist) versus anyone else.

Hey, my Father-in-Law had a Masters in Nuclear Physics worked for AEC, worked on Apollo missions, and ran SD Gas & Electric and the Nevada Nuclear Test site and helped build Patriot missiles for Raytheon.

Does that help my creditability any? Didn't think so.

OK I'll stick to what I know best:

and

 

[Kel Varnsen]

I ran some numbers; take away all of his catches, and Fitz hasn't done anything spectacular. Why are we paying him $120 million?

This was quick napkin math, I may need to double check it.

 

[kerouac9]

It's funny how often we agree, but how often we agree.

The above statement is EXACTLY how I view Hightower. He's a guy I want as my second or third back, but I absolutely DO NOT want him starting for me.

The problem with our RB depth chart this year is that while Beanie has more potential, I actually view THT as a better player right now. Beanie has shown in spurts that he can be better than THT, but THT has been more consistent.

That's why I was instantly in love with picking Ryan Williams while most of the universe was scratching their head. In my view, Ryan Williams has "it". He's just one of those players, that even though he has a marginal forty yard dash, and doesn't necessarily look the part, if he stays healthy he's going to be a big time back. I can't say the same for Beanie Wells (hasn't proven it consistently) or THT (he's proven he's not a fulltime starter).

I just hope that trading THT and not Beanie doesn't bite us in the ass. The ball is Beanie's this year, but I have the feeling we'll be looking to add a starting caliber RB next year to be Ryan Williams complement/starter. I'm just not sold on Beanie Wells, and Williams injury history might force our hand.

By "it" do you mean a medical dossier longer than most Medicare patients'?

I think that Beanie is a great Pittsburgh-style RB. I know that I went back and forth with the board on this last summer, but Beanie just isn't a big-play RB. What he will do for you--and he showed this his rookie year--is grind out yards in the second half and keep you in second- and third-and-manageable situations.

Football Outsiders says that it's not that you win when you run, it's that you run when you win. Beanie isn't Fast Willie Parker; he's Jerome Bettis. The issue is whether you can get points on the board quickly enough to get Beanie into position to close out the game.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

I've felt like I belonged since my first day here,” Hightower said. “This team has a good offensive line, and we’ve made a commitment to running the ball. In some ways I feel like it was meant to be.”

hmmmmm....

 

[Mulli]

Dave, if you think that Tim Hightower is a starting-caliber runner, than I don't know what to tell you.

An RB metric that I find particularly useful is FootballOutsiders' "Success Rate" metric, which basically means how frequently did the RB gain 4 yards or more on first down, 60% of the yardage needed or more on second down, and 100% or more of the yardage required for a first down on third and fourth down.

I love this metric because I don't worry as much about my RB gaining yards in chunks if they can move the chains on first and second down. Interestingly, the Saints' Corey Ivy lead the NFL in success rate, getting the needed yardage 59% of the time (!). Arian Foster was 9 (52%); Jamaal Charles was 3rd (56% of the time--this guy needs to get more carries.

There are some boom-and-bust type players. Surprisingly, Adrian Peterson and his bad offensive line in Minnesota ranked 22nd (45%), although his big plays ranked him 5th in DVOA.

Anyway, you can look over the rankings for yourself: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

Needless to say, Tim Hightower ranked... 36th. He is what he is: an upper-echelon backup runningback but a guy that you don't want starting 16 games for you. This should come as a surprise to no one.

Bump for K9.

 

[Phrazbit]

Hightower stinks. I heard his style described perfectly the other day "he runs with his eyes closed". Basically if where the play is designed to go the O-line can create a hole, he picks up great yardage, if anything goes even slightly outside the play's design, he goes no where. He is as un-elusive as running backs get.

3.5 ypc, and 1 TD on the season.

I am not mourning the loss of Tim. Only that his replacement tore his knee up before he played a game.

 

[Duckjake]

The title needs to be changed to Hightower was doing great.

22 carries for 65 yards last two games and now I hear he's injured and questionable for Sunday's game.

Beanie wasn't exactly tearing it up vs the Vikings either. But then almost every player stunk it up for at least parts of the game.

 

[Goldfield]

Hightower was only OK. He outperformed his draft position. He would of been better if he didnt fumble so bad.

We wouldnt be talking about him if Williams didnt get hurt.

 

[THESMEL]

I like Timmmy Too, He is who we thought he was and we let him off the books.

 

[b8rtm8nn]

I like Timmmy Too, He is who we thought he was and we let him off the books.

Classic

 

[Shane]

Recovered from shoulder injury and started today. Was having great game. Then looks like he blew his knee..non contact too. Sucks for him.

 

[Buckybird]

Recovered from shoulder injure and started today. Was having great game. Then looks like he blew his knee..non contact too. Sucks for him.

Yep, I think he's done for the year THT had that look in his eyes. Had a pretty good day going too.