Hightower looks great

[Cardiac]

Arian Foster was an undrafted free agent. That's a guy who outplayed his draft position.

Tim Hightower was a 5th round draft pick who isn't good enough to start for a good team in the NFL. He's an average #2 back who can't catch the ball out of the backfield and fumbles constantly.

He performed exactly to his draft position.

Okay fine.

 

[Cards_Campos]

Agreed and, of course, the dictionary picture example is Terrell Davis although he may have better than just good despite being just a 6th round draft choice.

THT gave the Cardinals three good years despite the fumbles. I'll never forget his critical first down in the Eagles playoff game. That was probably his greatest moment in a Cardinal uniform IMO.

Well you could argue his 3rd and goal TD that put us up by 7 after the 2 point conversion. If Timmy gets stopped at the 1 we have to kick the FG. And I believe Philly goes down and wins it with a FG.

 

[40yearfan]

Arian Foster was an undrafted free agent. That's a guy who outplayed his draft position.

Tim Hightower was a 5th round draft pick who isn't good enough to start for a good team in the NFL. He's an average #2 back who can't catch the ball out of the backfield and fumbles constantly.

He performed exactly to his draft position.

AP had 20 fumbles during his first 3 years with the Vikings. Last year, he had 1. THT had 12 fumbles his first 3 years with the Cards. Why don't we at least wait until a few regular season games have been played to see if he corrected his problem in his fourth year as apparently AP has done. And I don't know why you say he can't catch a ball out of the backfield. He's had very few chances to do so.

 

[kerouac9]

AP had 20 fumbles during his first 3 years with the Vikings. Last year, he had 1. THT had 12 fumbles his first 3 years with the Cards. Why don't we at least wait until a few regular season games have been played to see if he corrected his problem in his fourth year as apparently AP has done. And I don't know why you say he can't catch a ball out of the backfield. He's had very few chances to do so.

Adrian Peterson fumbled once every 45.75 carries his first three years in the NFL. He also has a 4.8 YPC average and scored 41 TDs in those first three years.

Tim Hightower in his first three years scored 23 TDs, averaged 3.9 YPC, and fumbled every 36.58 carries.

When someone is excellent at every other aspect of the game, you live with him while he learns to protect the football. When a guy is an average running back in every other way while dropping the second-highest percentage of his targets in the NFL in the passing game, then you can't wait for him to figure out how to hold on to the football.

And Hightower had 42 targets last season and dropped 6 passes. In 2010 he was tied for 4th in the league in drops overall (9), and 14th in the NFL in percentage of passes dropped (11.3%). Hightower had 80 targets and 63 receptions in 2009, and he still managed to have one of the highest drop rates in the NFL.

 

[RugbyMuffin]

I'll miss Timmay. But then, I also miss Marcel Shipp. I know, I need help.

I miss the Marcel Shipp as well.

The year he was going to start, and he injured his ankle was one of the worse moments being a fan of this team. Felt so bad for the guy.

Plus he was from NJ.

 

[jw7]

He just busted a 37 yard run for the TD against the Ravens.

 

[Jersey Girl]

He just busted a 37 yard run for the TD against the Ravens.

Also had a great block earlier. Still looks weird seeing him in a Redsksins uniform.

 

[Cards_Campos]

He just busted a 37 yard run for the TD against the Ravens.

Yes but you can't count those long runs. They inflate his average so they are dropped when you grade him.

 

[Buckybird]

Yes but you can't count those long runs. They inflate his average so they are dropped when you grade him.

no they dont!!! Sanders had more negative yardage carries than anyone in the NFLs history.

People here underestimate his talent because of his fumbling, where he was drafted & lack of big time carries. He's more than a solid NFL back that was stuck in a passing offense & a bad Oline. He will light it up for the Skins this year if he stays healthy...but then I guess it will be all because of the blocking scheme & Shanahan. I'm giving credit where credit it due...THT is pretty damn good & he had the big play ability in college & with the Cards.

I said we were fine at RB on draft draft day after we drafted RW & shouldve added a edge rusher...only time will tell.

 

[AzStevenCal]

no they dont!!! Sanders had more negative yardage carries than anyone in the NFLs history.

People here underestimate his talent because of his fumbling, where he was drafted & lack of big time carries. He's more than a solid NFL back that was stuck in a passing offense & a bad Oline. He will light it up for the Skins this year if he stays healthy...but then I guess it will be all because of the blocking scheme & Shanahan. I'm giving credit where credit it due...THT is pretty damn good & he had the big play ability in college & with the Cards.

I said we were fine at RB on draft draft day after we drafted RW & shouldve added a edge rusher...only time will tell.

I think that was sarcasm on Cards_Campos part, I'm pretty sure he's agreeing with you. I think pretty much every back of note has long runs that inflate their average so obviously you can't just toss them out. OTOH, if a runner is continually being stopped for no gain or negative yardage and every 4th drive he breaks a long one, that's definitely a problem. Hightower doesn't fit that description though so I see it as a moot point.

Steve

 

[Big Deal]

no they dont!!! Sanders had more negative yardage carries than anyone in the NFLs history.

People here underestimate his talent because of his fumbling, where he was drafted & lack of big time carries. He's more than a solid NFL back that was stuck in a passing offense & a bad Oline. He will light it up for the Skins this year if he stays healthy...but then I guess it will be all because of the blocking scheme & Shanahan. I'm giving credit where credit it due...THT is pretty damn good & he had the big play ability in college & with the Cards.

I said we were fine at RB on draft draft day after we drafted RW & shouldve added a edge rusher...only time will tell.

LOL

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

I GOTTA SAY Hightower looks legit behind that zone blocking scheme... It is begging to look like he is gonna be the next in a long list of runningbacks to leave the Cards to tear up the league.

 

[moklerman]

This preseason:
25/170 6.8ypc 2TD

with a 37 yard TD and a 58 yarder.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

THIS PRESEASON:
25/170 6.8ypc 2TD

with a 37 yard TD and a 58 yarder.

Just wanted to highlight a fact for you.

 

[Garthshort]

Should I pick him for my fantasy team? In a 10 team league we pick and play three RB's. If I take him, I think he'd be my third back. What say you?

 

[Garthshort]

Almost forgot. I'm targeting Hillis and Felix Jones as my first two, and in addition to TH, I'm also considering Benson and Jacobs for #3. But since most of the league consists of Jets and Giants fans, Jacobs probably won't be available, come the 7th or 8th round.

 

[moklerman]

Just wanted to highlight a fact for you.

Did you think I was unaware of something that I put in my post in the first place?

And, while I agree with what you're implying, that preseason stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, I also think that Hightower is having his best preseason. By far.

In his first 3 years, he averaged 3.8, 4.6 & 4.2 ypc during the preseason which turned out to be just about what he averaged during the regular season during that time(2.8, 4.2 & 4.8).

Looking at those regular season numbers, it shows that he's improved each year that he's been in the league. That he's having a really good preseason this year sort of fits with that pattern of improvement.

But I would like to know what it is you're actually trying to say. I just provided the stats for those who hadn't seen them. I hadn't seen them. I knew he had a long run and had a good game but I hadn't looked at his 3 game totals. Do you contest the numbers? Do you think they're misleading? Or meaningless?

 

[FrustratedFan04]

This preseason:
25/170 6.8ypc 2TD

with a 37 yard TD and a 58 yarder.

I know the conventional wisdom here is to scoff at "leaving out the long runs" but that's what you have to look at when it comes to this guy. He had two preseason runs for 95 yards and 2 TD's, the rest of his 23 preseason carries were for 75 yards and no TD's. If pre-season stats mean anything, and I suggest they don't ( a few years ago Detroit was 4-0 in preseason and 0-16 during the regular season ), they can only be interpreted by the level of compition and when in the time frame of the game they occured. If Mike Shannahan can "cure" him of his fumbling, something I don't believe for a minute, then more power to him. As I said before, who cares about him now? He doesn't play for us anymore and when we had him he ruined more games then he "saved". 2008 was great thereafter it wasn't the blocking that was the problem it was his inability to hold onto the ball.

 

[kerouac9]

I think that was sarcasm on Cards_Campos part, I'm pretty sure he's agreeing with you. I think pretty much every back of note has long runs that inflate their average so obviously you can't just toss them out. OTOH, if a runner is continually being stopped for no gain or negative yardage and every 4th drive he breaks a long one, that's definitely a problem. Hightower doesn't fit that description though so I see it as a moot point.

Steve

You can't for their overall average, but you can if you do it to other runningback's numbers at the same time you do it with Hightower's.

And I've done that in the past. The fact of the matter is that when you take away just a handful--5, say--of Hightower's longest runs (and that's out of some 350), his YPC average goes from good to horrible.

If you do the same with the good backs around the league--MJD, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, etc.--it doesn't happen. Their YPC goes down a little, but they have so many more 5, 6, 7 yard runs that it only brings it down by a point or two.

Hightower's rushes are inflated by a handful of big runs scattered among a slew of short or negative runs. He's an ineffective back not only because he fumbles all the time, but also because he consistently leaves your offense in second-and-long situations that most other backs don't nearly as often.

 

[Duckjake]

I know the conventional wisdom here is to scoff at "leaving out the long runs" but that's what you have to look at when it comes to this guy. He had two preseason runs for 95 yards and 2 TD's, the rest of his 23 preseason carries were for 75 yards and no TD's. If pre-season stats mean anything, and I suggest they don't ( a few years ago Detroit was 4-0 in preseason and 0-16 during the regular season ), they can only be interpreted by the level of compition and when in the time frame of the game they occured. If Mike Shannahan can "cure" him of his fumbling, something I don't believe for a minute, then more power to him. As I said before, who cares about him now? He doesn't play for us anymore and when we had him he ruined more games then he "saved". 2008 was great thereafter it wasn't the blocking that was the problem it was his inability to hold onto the ball.

I care about what he is doing because I am not a fan of Russ Grimm at all and I'm looking at TH in Washington as more indication that our offensive line problems are coaching problems not personnel problems. But it is preseason so we'll see after a couple of games.

Also 2008 was not really great for TH from a rushing standpoint. After his big day vs the Rams he produced these numbers: 13 carries for 22 yards,11-35,11-21,7-7,12-32,5-20,10-17 and 3-3. 2.18 ypc and 3 TDs the second half of the season. TH had 7 games overall where he was under 2ypc.

But we all know The Arizona Cards can't run the football or they won't run the football or whatever. Tobin 29th '99, McGinnis '03 29th. Green 2005 32nd, 2006, 30th in rushing. CKW 29th,32nd,28th,32nd.

 

[Cheesebeef]

if a guy is consistently getting a big run per game you just can't take it away from him. seriously... if he has 37 yards on one run and the drive leads to a score... or 37 yards on 7 runs and it leads to a score, he's still responsible for getting the key yards that lead to a score, right?

look, i wasn't the biggest fan of HT because of his fumbling, but saying "take away his 37 yard run and his 58 yard run in the last two games and he's only got 23 carries for 75 yards just isn't acknolwedging the impact he's been making on the game.

 

[kerouac9]

if a guy is consistently getting a big run per game you just can't take it away from him. seriously... if he has 37 yards on one run and the drive leads to a score... or 37 yards on 7 runs and it leads to a score, he's still responsible for getting the key yards that lead to a score, right?

look, i wasn't the biggest fan of HT because of his fumbling, but saying "take away his 37 yard run and his 58 yard run in the last two games and he's only got 23 carries for 75 yards just isn't acknolwedging the impact he's been making on the game.

You can't do it in each game, but isn't it fair to look at an entire season worth or production and say that if you take away 5 runs out of 150 (just over three percent of his total rushes) that maybe he's not getting the job done? If you have a back who will get you 5 yards per carry if you give him the ball 10 times, and a back who will give you 9 one-yard runs and a 41-yard run, which back would you rather have?

Arian Foster had 1616 yards on 327 carries and averaged 4.9 YPC. Take away his 5 biggest runs (74, 56, 37, 42, and 29 yards), and he 4.27 YPC. Still a solid average for an NFL running back, right?

Peyton Hillis had 1177 yards on 270 carries and averaged 4.4 YPC. Take away his five biggest runs (48, 35, 25, 24, and 18), and he goes down to 3.8 YPC. Just 0.6 YPC dropoff.

Timmy had 736 yards on 153 carries and averaged 4.8 YPC. Take away his five biggest runs (80, 41, 32, 24, and 20), and he's at 3.6 YPC. A full 1.2 YPC dropoff.

Take away just his two longest carries of the season, and he runs for 4.1 YPC--a full 0.7 YPC dropoff.

The issue isn't whether THT is an NFL-caliber running back. The issue is whether he's a starting-caliber NFL running back. Clearly, his production is not consistent enough to keep the team out of a ton of second-and-long passing situations which murdered our QBs last season.

Three more comparisons, just for fun:

Jamaal Charles: 1467/230/6.4 ----> 5.39 YPC.
Chris Johnson: 1364/316/4.3 ----> 3.6 YPC
Adrian Peterson: 1298/283/4.6 ----> 3.9 YPC

Timmy's a boom-or-bust runner, but his booms aren't as frequent as other starting-caliber NFL backs, and his busts are far more.

 

[Cheesebeef]

You can't do it in each game, but isn't it fair to look at an entire season worth or production and say that if you take away 5 runs out of 150 (just over three percent of his total rushes) that maybe he's not getting the job done? If you have a back who will get you 5 yards per carry if you give him the ball 10 times, and a back who will give you 9 one-yard runs and a 41-yard run, which back would you rather have?

Arian Foster had 1616 yards on 327 carries and averaged 4.9 YPC. Take away his 5 biggest runs (74, 56, 37, 42, and 29 yards), and he 4.27 YPC. Still a solid average for an NFL running back, right?

Peyton Hillis had 1177 yards on 270 carries and averaged 4.4 YPC. Take away his five biggest runs (48, 35, 25, 24, and 18), and he goes down to 3.8 YPC. Just 0.6 YPC dropoff.

Timmy had 736 yards on 153 carries and averaged 4.8 YPC. Take away his five biggest runs (80, 41, 32, 24, and 20), and he's at 3.6 YPC. A full 1.2 YPC dropoff.

Take away just his two longest carries of the season, and he runs for 4.1 YPC--a full 0.7 YPC dropoff.

The issue isn't whether THT is an NFL-caliber running back. The issue is whether he's a starting-caliber NFL running back. Clearly, his production is not consistent enough to keep the team out of a ton of second-and-long passing situations which murdered our QBs last season.

Three more comparisons, just for fun:

Jamaal Charles: 1467/230/6.4 ----> 5.39 YPC.
Chris Johnson: 1364/316/4.3 ----> 3.6 YPC
Adrian Peterson: 1298/283/4.6 ----> 3.9 YPC

Timmy's a boom-or-bust runner, but his booms aren't as frequent as other starting-caliber NFL backs, and his busts are far more.

yeah... but aren't we comparing what he's doing now in a proven blocking scheme versus what he did in the past? i know the proof will be in the regular season pudding, but people trying to take away his huge runs in the last two games and extrapolating it backwards doesn't seem kosher to me.

 

[john h]

Timmy on 6-10 carries has never been the problem. He's just absolutely terrible at grinding out consistent yardage.

Sort of like the infamous Thomas Jones. He could not run a lick.

 

[AzStevenCal]

You can't do it in each game, but isn't it fair to look at an entire season worth or production and say that if you take away 5 runs out of 150 (just over three percent of his total rushes) that maybe he's not getting the job done? If you have a back who will get you 5 yards per carry if you give him the ball 10 times, and a back who will give you 9 one-yard runs and a 41-yard run, which back would you rather have?

I don't like the idea of subtracting 5 carries and coming to a conclusion based on it. I could see some relevance if you wanted to compare average yards per carry on runs while excluding all long runs (10+ or 20+?). However, you'd also have to look at the (average) point where the back first gets hit. With our line and our system, I doubt any running back could be gauged fairly.

Steve