Hightower loses starting job or Whis loses credibility

[Stout]

Where has anyone defended his fumbling? All me or any others have said quite clearly that if you are calling for timmy to be benchd for laying the ball on the carpet your a hypocrite. Considering Beanie is even worse at holding on to the rock.

You do realize that I and others were calling for him to be benched DURING THE GAME, right? We're not talking long-term here. THT had damn well better be contributing this weekend.

 

[Covert Rain]

IMO opinion, TH has shown flashes but hasn't he always? My primary reason is this....you know what you have in TH. IMO, the guy will never be better then what he is today. BW on the other hand has huge upside. I have seen enough of TH to know that the guy will never be a great running back. IMO BW is already as good as TH but has not reached his full potential.

Don't get me wrong, I want him on this team and I think he should still play and be part of this offense. I just don't think he be the starter any longer. Enough is enough.

 

[JeffGollin]

Hightower has more fumbles in less carries and twice as many fumbles lost. If you go by total touches though Hightower is slightly slightly better but Hightower has absolutely been worse lately at holding onto the ball.

Beanie has carried 136 times & caught 10 passes for a total of 146 touches.

Hightower has carried 121 times and caught 53 passes for 174 touches.

Assuming that the second set of fumble stats posted on this thread are accurate -

Beanie fumbled 4 times (or 2.73% of the times he touched the ball)

Hightower fumbled 5 times (or 2.87% of the times he touched the ball)

The likelihood that either RB will fumble on any given carry is almost identical. Both average 4.4 yards/per carry. And the sample sizes may not be big enough to be valid, reliable or projectible anyway

Regarding who recovered each fumble - Once the ball is out of the ballcarrier's hands, he has little if any control over who'll recover it; so this factor is irrelevent to the discussion (though not to the game).

Regarding the timeliness or nature of each fumble - I do think this deserves further discussion: It was obvious to me that the Niners were "going for the ball" in certain situations. It was equally obvious that both Beanie and Timmy (& LSH) were trying so hard to pick up exra yardage (or perhaps weren't reminded by the coaches) that they may not have realized or remembered that the Niners were trying extra hard to bang or pry the ball out. My point - I believe coaching and attitude toward protecting the ball in crunch situations can be a difference-maker and we should do a better job in this dept. overall.

A few fumbles were due to our opponents putting their hats on the ball (give them credit). Some were due to extra effort combined with lack of thought. Some were due to sloppy ball carrying and the handling of tosses. The latter two categories can (and should be) cleaned up via coaching, teaching and reps.

But - other than the fact that each of our RB's have unique talents best suited for varying game situations and offensive opportunities - I don't think the overall productivity of either RB is all that different from one another.

 

[Shane]

Hightower has more fumbles in less carries and twice as many fumbles lost. If you go by total touches though Hightower is slightly slightly better but Hightower has absolutely been worse lately at holding onto the ball.

Hightower has 5 fumbles 4 lost in the official stats and Beanie has 4 and 2 lost.

The only problem with those stats is that they don't paint the entire picture. Beanie has put 3 other balls on the carpet that aren't credited to him him for some unknown reason. The two pitch plays in back to back weeks one in the Rams game and one in the Titans game. The one in the Rams game was recovered by the Rams. Both balls were placed directly in Beanies hands and he flat out dropped them. Those are fumbles IMO even though they arent counted as such in the "official" stats.

He also had another fumble in the first Seattle game IIRC that occured inside the redzone. He did recover it himself which is good. Even Urban made reference to it in one of his stories earlier in the year and that he didnt understand how he wasnt credited for the fumble.

Based on that I have the tally at Hightower 5 with 4 lost and Beanie with 7 and 3 lost.

To me the more disturbing #'s for both is just the fumbles themselves. That's an astoundingly high # for both especially since they essentially split the carries. I dont really look at the LOST # because that is sheer luck on which way the ball bounced and who was in the area when you let it go. Nothing more and nothing less.

 

[Shane]

My primary reason is this....you know what you have in TH. IMO, the guy will never be better then what he is today.

That is the same thing that was said about him last year on this message board. Yet he is quite a bit better this season than from last.

 

[DieHardCardFan]

That is the same thing that was said about him last year on this message board. Yet he is quite a bit better this season than from last.

Very very true!!!!

 

[Covert Rain]

That is the same thing that was said about him last year on this message board. Yet he is quite a bit better this season than from last.

I disagree. He is not better then last year. He is just touching the ball more and getting more of an opportunity. Having said that, I am not impressed with him. I have not seen him do anything this year he didn't do last year in flashes. I don't think he can produce like Edge did during the playoffs. Just my opinion. I think our best chance is using Beanie as the focus and let HT continue to contribute in certain sets.

 

[DieHardCardFan]

I disagree. He is not better then last year. He is just touching the ball more and getting more of an opportunity. Having said that, I am not impressed with him. I have not seen him do anything this year he didn't do last year in flashes. I don't think he can produce like Edge did during the playoffs. Just my opinion. I think our best chance is using Beanie as the focus and let HT continue to contribute in certain sets.

Did you miss last season? The playoffs? Those were just flashes in the playoffs? THT had no where near the 4.4 ypc last year that he has this year. I would bet THT has pretty close to the same number of carries this year at the end of the season as he didlast season. But we shall see.

 

[BigDavis75]

I disagree. He is not better then last year. He is just touching the ball more and getting more of an opportunity. Having said that, I am not impressed with him. I have not seen him do anything this year he didn't do last year in flashes. I don't think he can produce like Edge did during the playoffs. Just my opinion. I think our best chance is using Beanie as the focus and let HT continue to contribute in certain sets.

I would tend to agree with Shane here that HT is better this season. At the very least he is running with considerably more vision this season compared to last and IMO has progressed throughout the season in that aspect as well. I believe he is developing a much better feel for when to bounce it outside and when to bury his head and get the yards he can take. Further, his blitz pickup is excellent. Although these are just observations on my part, the stats help my point. He has a higher ypc and considerably more runs that went for longer yardage. Also, he has a higher yards per reception average.

The fumbles here do warrant further discussion, I have never been a RB at any level so I am simply guessing here....but: at least one of Beanie's fumbles came right on the sideline and I feel that as ball carriers get close to the sideline and are attempting to run out, they loosen their grip on the ball and I feel that specific fumble was as a result of that. This is comparable to when a receiver has outran all the defensive backs and thinks no one is going to catch him but a defender comes up and pops the ball out from behind, the ball carrier is relaxing his grip because he feels there is little inherent risk to lose the ball. Anyway, that only explains one of the fumbles and I am by no means trying to defend all of his fumbles, it is a serious problem for both players that needs to be fixed.

 

[Covert Rain]

Did you miss last season? The playoffs? Those were just flashes in the playoffs? THT had no where near the 4.4 ypc last year that he has this year. I would bet THT has pretty close to the same number of carries this year at the end of the season as he didlast season. But we shall see.

Opportunity in better situations. There is a huge difference getting the ball on 1st or 2nd down versus getting the ball on 3rd or other situations in which the entire world knows your going to run the ball.

Quality of carries is much different when you are the featured back or starting HB. His opportunities are much better not playing behind Edge.

Here is a perfect example. This year his first 10 carries per game he averages 4.7 yards per game. His second 10 carries averaged 3.1 yards per game which is around what he did last year. Coming in and backing up another player, the quality of carries is much different. That tells me that HT does much better starting then finishing a game.

Beanie is now getting the type of carries HT was getting last year and he is ahead of what HT was doing last year in the same situation and doing so as a rookie. I think HT is benefiting from opportunity more then really being better then last year. Then there is the consistency on the offensive line this year. I think those things have more to do with how HT has been playing then him really being a better player. If HT was to all of the sudden be a league leader in rushing I would buy that argument.

 

[moklerman]

Has anyone brought up the handoff that Wells fumbled that was credited to Warner? Not that it will end or solve the discussion but his numbers may be a bit askew.

 

[DieHardCardFan]

Opportunity in better situations. There is a huge difference getting the ball on 1st or 2nd down versus getting the ball on 3rd or other situations in which the entire world knows your going to run the ball.

Quality of carries is much different when you are the featured back or starting HB. His opportunities are much better not playing behind Edge.

Here is a perfect example. This year his first 10 carries per game he averages 4.7 yards per game. His second 10 carries averaged 3.1 yards per game which is around what he did last year. Coming in and backing up another player, the quality of carries is much different. That tells me that HT does much better starting then finishing.

Beanie is now getting the type of carries HT was getting last year and he is ahead of what HT was doing last year in the same situation.

I can agree with you on theory somewhat. But this sound like more of the same excuses for BW and justification to take credit from THT. None of this interests me right now. THT was a HUGE factor in the SB run last year and before BW had even stepped foot on a NFL field the same people who now can find no wrong in him and bash THT where proclaiming BW the starter. I dont know why I would have expected that to change now.

 

[moklerman]

I don't think either of them should be rewarded but if both are going to fumble, I'd rather see Wells getting a majority of the carries. At least there is a potential trade-off with him and what seems like homerun ability. Hightower is a solid back and incredible value for where he was drafted but he will, IMO, always be best suited as a complimentary RB.

This week though, I would bench both of them and start Wright. This fumbling by committee has got to stop and playing with the ball on the sidelines before the game isn't working.

 

[BigDavis75]

Opportunity in better situations. There is a huge difference getting the ball on 1st or 2nd down versus getting the ball on 3rd or other situations in which the entire world knows your going to run the ball.

Quality of carries is much different when you are the featured back or starting HB. His opportunities are much better not playing behind Edge.

Here is a perfect example. This year his first 10 carries per game he averages 4.7 yards per game. His second 10 carries averaged 3.1 yards per game which is around what he did last year. Coming in and backing up another player, the quality of carries is much different. That tells me that HT does much better starting then finishing a game.

Beanie is now getting the type of carries HT was getting last year and he is ahead of what HT was doing last year in the same situation and doing so as a rookie. I think HT is benefiting from opportunity more then really being better then last year. Then there is the consistency on the offensive line this year. I think those things have more to do with how HT has been playing then him really being a better player. If HT was to all of the sudden be a league leader in rushing I would buy that argument.

This stat just doesn't hold any water. There are only five games this year where he had more than 10 carries in a game. The total of these carries (the number over 10 carries added up over the season) only comes to 18, which is an absurdly small sample. Further, 5 of these carries came in the jacksonville game, 3 came in the seattle blowout, and 5 came in the bears game. That means that of the 18, 13 were in blowouts. By my count that means that only 5 of these carries that you are speaking of came in legitimate games where the opposition wasn't keyed in on the run.

It is a good stat on its face, but it doesn't have any real substance behind it.

 

[Shane]

I disagree. He is not better then last year. He is just touching the ball more and getting more of an opportunity. Having said that, I am not impressed with him. I have not seen him do anything this year he didn't do last year in flashes. I don't think he can produce like Edge did during the playoffs. Just my opinion. I think our best chance is using Beanie as the focus and let HT continue to contribute in certain sets.

You can disagree all you want. His production is far away better than last year. The YPC doesnt lie. He is over a yard better than last year which is huge!

 

[Shane]

Has anyone brought up the handoff that Wells fumbled that was credited to Warner? Not that it will end or solve the discussion but his numbers may be a bit askew.

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showpost.php?p=2146348&postcount=104

I brought up these and completely forgot about that one too.

 

[Shane]

I don't think either of them should be rewarded but if both are going to fumble, I'd rather see Wells getting a majority of the carries. At least there is a potential trade-off with him and what seems like homerun ability. Hightower is a solid back and incredible value for where he was drafted but he will, IMO, always be best suited as a complimentary RB.

This week though, I would bench both of them and start Wright. This fumbling by committee has got to stop and playing with the ball on the sidelines before the game isn't working.

The only problem with that is that so far beanie hasn't shown any homerun ability. He has yet to have a run even over 30 yards with well over 100 carries.

 

[DieHardCardFan]

The only problem with that is that so far beanie hasn't shown any homerun ability. He has yet to have a run even over 30 yards with well over 100 carries.

That really isnt fair though! He would probably have 1400 yards and 25 TD if the dumb coach would see what EVERYONE else sees and would just give him the damn ball! So come on Shane give it a break.
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[Covert Rain]

You can disagree all you want. His production is far away better than last year. The YPC doesnt lie. He is over a yard better than last year which is huge!

And I showed why that is and also showed the difference between his first 10 and second 10. Stats say he is benefiting from starting. Stats say he is having problems as the game goes on and defenses tighten up.

Quality of carries is huge.

The only problem with that is that so far beanie hasn't shown any homerun ability. He has yet to have a run even over 30 yards with well over 100 carries.

Again...Opportunity. It's not like HT is ripping them off every game or every other game for that matter. I would be willing to bet you let Beanie start over the last 3 games you would see him rip off a long run.

To compare a starters 100 carries to a backups 100 carries is ridiculous. The situations are different. Compare HT in the backup roll and Beanie. Beanie is ahead of where HT was behind Edge and doing so as a rookie with a ton of upside.

 

[moklerman]

The only problem with that is that so far beanie hasn't shown any homerun ability. He has yet to have a run even over 30 yards with well over 100 carries.

Well, we have to use the always accurate eyeball test but Wells has certainly seemed as though he was on the cusp of breaking a long one many times.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking but I have had the impression that if he were given a starting RB's number of carries that those breakout runs would happen. Sporadic carries, in & out of the lineup and inconsistent playing time have all worked against his production in that regard.

If he was getting 18-20 carries per game, I'm confident he would have had a couple of long one's by now. I would very much like to see Wells & Hightower splitting series the way Peterson & Taylor do in Minnesota. Splitting possessions 3 to 1 or so.

 

[CaptTurbo]

Fact: Beanie can make the first guy miss
Fact: Hightower goes down on first contact 99% of the time.

 

[DieHardCardFan]

And I showed why that is and also showed the difference between his first 10 and second 10. Stats say he is benefiting from starting. Stats say he is having problems as the game goes on and defenses tighten up.

Quality of carries is huge.



Again...Opportunity. It's not like HT is ripping them off every game or every other game for that matter. I would be willing to bet you let Beanie start over the last 3 games you would see him rip off a long run.

To compare a starters 100 carries to a backups 100 carries is ridiculous. The situations are different. Compare HT in the backup roll and Beanie. Beanie is ahead of where HT was behind Edge and doing so as a rookie with a ton of upside.

So by this logic you are saying it should not matter who starts really, because they will do better that the non-starter? Again sounds like excuses for BW and taking credit away from THT for having so far a pretty good year!

 

[Shane]

This stat just doesn't hold any water. There are only five games this year where he had more than 10 carries in a game. The total of these carries (the number over 10 carries added up over the season) only comes to 18, which is an absurdly small sample. Further, 5 of these carries came in the jacksonville game, 3 came in the seattle blowout, and 5 came in the bears game. That means that of the 18, 13 were in blowouts. By my count that means that only 5 of these carries that you are speaking of came in legitimate games where the opposition wasn't keyed in on the run.

It is a good stat on its face, but it doesn't have any real substance behind it.

Yup.

 

[DieHardCardFan]

Fact: Beanie can make the first guy miss
Fact: Hightower goes down on first contact 99% of the time.

Is that fact or is that opinion? If fact please share the source. Because I may need my eyes checked because I swear I have seen THT break several tackles and make a few guys step right out of thier shoes this year. But hey that might have been BW and I was thinking it was THT. And to think all season I have been walking around talking about how these two are a great duo. Oh so back to the question........source please?

 

[Shane]

Fact: Beanie can make the first guy miss
Fact: Hightower goes down on first contact 99% of the time.

Those are hater glasses. Timmy makes the first guy attempting to tackle him miss a few times in this highlight video. Including in the game clincher that sent us to the SB. Made the first guy fly right by him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwLKbvvLH_A&feature=related