Is Murray Too Risk Adverse?

[Cheesebeef]

Man that game sucked on Sunday.

 

[Stout]

We've gotten spoiled by watching KM run for chunk yardage and crash the endzone for TDs. That is not sustainable over a season and certainly not over a long career. KM is our offense---without him we're a bunch of passengers on the bus with no driver.

KM has to be risk-averse if he is to survive the eleven heat-seeking missiles all pointed in his direction on each and every play.

Yet he can't be so risk averse that it costs us big-time when there wasn't even the risk of a big hit. He HAS to be more cognizant of where he is sliding on the field and he HAS to realize when he does have more time/yards. There's just no excuse for it, and it's killing us.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Yet he can't be so risk averse that it costs us big-time when there wasn't even the risk of a big hit. He HAS to be more cognizant of where he is sliding on the field and he HAS to realize when he does have more time/yards. There's just no excuse for it, and it's killing us.

He's making split-second decisions on the slides---realize he has to get into his slide with enough reaction time and space to give the D player(s) bearing down on him the opportunity to avoid the hit. Usually, he is pretty good at that calculation and is sliding and also avoiding the big hit. On the Pat play (that I think a lot of people are upset about), it did look a little early and cost the first down---again, he has to get down and give the D play lead time to pull up.

I've seen more 'risk-aversion' on the pass plays where he thinks he is throwing it away but is actually guilty of intentional grounding. Those mistakes are more costly than anything yet in the running-slide to avoid the hit.

 

[schutd]

Man that game sucked on Sunday.

Very hard to watch.

 

[Stout]

He's making split-second decisions on the slides---realize he has to get into his slide with enough reaction time and space to give the D player(s) bearing down on him the opportunity to avoid the hit. Usually, he is pretty good at that calculation and is sliding and also avoiding the big hit. On the Pat play (that I think a lot of people are upset about), it did look a little early and cost the first down---again, he has to get down and give the D play lead time to pull up.

I've seen more 'risk-aversion' on the pass plays where he thinks he is throwing it away but is actually guilty of intentional grounding. Those mistakes are more costly than anything yet in the running-slide to avoid the hit.

Actually, the eye test says quite the opposite. He constantly slides short of the first, in situations where a few extra feet wouldn't lead him into a big hit. Sunday was a prime example. And ALL QBs have to make split-second decisions on those slides, so he certainly doesn't get a break there. It's a big hole in the game of a running QB, and one he absolutely MUST address. It's really hurt us this season.

Now, if we're talking the D is closing in and he's 5 yards short of the first, get on the ground, son!

 

[Russ Smith]

At first I thought if he slid up (after backing up so far) he probably hits Isabella/ball doesnt loft.

However, the more I look at it if he darts up the middle its him vs. a DT from getting in the endzone.

You must be registered for see images attach

You must be registered for see images attach

You must be registered for see images attach

You must be registered for see images attach

It would have been similar to the 49ers game.


Although this goes back to my point about Kliff having a horrible feel on when to call a screen pass. Not sure we've got much on screen passes to the backs at all this year. This looked like a perfect opportunity to call one.

From the last angle definitely should have stepped up and ran the middle but again, I think it's clear he was protecting the shoulder and BB was banking on that and it worked. It's genius because Kyler isn't 100%, if he is, that's a TD.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Actually, the eye test says quite the opposite. He constantly slides short of the first, in situations where a few extra feet wouldn't lead him into a big hit. Sunday was a prime example. And ALL QBs have to make split-second decisions on those slides, so he certainly doesn't get a break there. It's a big hole in the game of a running QB, and one he absolutely MUST address. It's really hurt us this season.

Now, if we're talking the D is closing in and he's 5 yards short of the first, get on the ground, son!

Where are you getting the numbers that have you state 'he constantly slides short of the first?' Is that your impression OR do you have a tally of the plays? Even those numbers would be speculation---in your opinion of the play it might look as if he still has running room; in my opinion of the play, I might say he is getting down fast enough to allow the D player to pull up and avoid the unnecessary hit.

I don't know what KM is being coached to do? Do you? Between his runs/passing, he is our offense. Without him on the field, do we get the same yardage out of Drake? The same yards out of Nuk? K2 may be telling him to get down---even when 'the eye test' says there is room yet to run.

Also, it may be a matter of situational awareness and locating the first-down line. On some short runs, my 'eye test' tells me that he is surprised when he gets off the ground and realizes he didn't get the first. Is he sliding thinking he's got the first down when he is actually missing the mark? A sliding QB is down when anything besides his feet or hands is touching the ground. Refs are making their own split second eye test as to when and where KM's butt is hitting the turf.

Rules on Dead Ball: 10_2012_BallInPlay_DeadBall_Scrimm.pdf (nfl.com)

KM's advanced rushing stats:

You must be registered for see images attach

41 of his 97 rushes are going for 1D. He's getting 88 yards after contact. Those YAC say he is running for that first down marker and NOT going down. Add to the above numbers 11 rushing TDs that are not counted as 1D runs (I think!).

Where do you see him being able to improve based on your 'eye test?'What numbers do you have to back-up your opinion?

 

[football karma]

You must be registered for see images

forget the scramble -- the play is a slide up into the pocket and deliver the ball to Hopkins on the cross, aimed about two yards left of the left hash. That is a pretty standard NFL qb throw -- and every offense runs plays to take advantage of that middle.

IMO-- thats also the design of the play: iso Hop man to man, clear out the middle of the field

 

[kerouac9]

"Too risk averse" is a hard thing to prove/justify. What I can say is that Murray had a worse game by DVOA than noted non-QB Kendall Hinton. He was especially bad in the second half -- that's not all playcalling. Kyler obviously isn't the first young QB to be tied in knots by a Bill Belicheck defense, though, either.

I think that Murray can be too cerebral at times when he's running the ball, but that's the guy he is; he's going to protect himself and look for the next play. I felt like he was pushing more against the Fins and Bills.

The thing that I saw him doing this week that I hadn't seen much of this year was the bailing out of the back of the pocket. He did that a lot last year and it hurt us because it created bigger sacks and holding penalties. He's done it much less this year, but he lost a ton of discipline.

That's the real trend we have to watch out for. One reason that Murray's rushing has been better this year is that by moving up in the pocket he can identify running lanes as they open and spring through them. If you're already 8-15 yards behind the LOS when you start scrambling, those outlets are much smaller.

 

[Cards_Campos]

"Too risk averse" is a hard thing to prove/justify. What I can say is that Murray had a worse game by DVOA than noted non-QB Kendall Hinton. He was especially bad in the second half -- that's not all playcalling. Kyler obviously isn't the first young QB to be tied in knots by a Bill Belicheck defense, though, either.

I think that Murray can be too cerebral at times when he's running the ball, but that's the guy he is; he's going to protect himself and look for the next play. I felt like he was pushing more against the Fins and Bills.

The thing that I saw him doing this week that I hadn't seen much of this year was the bailing out of the back of the pocket. He did that a lot last year and it hurt us because it created bigger sacks and holding penalties. He's done it much less this year, but he lost a ton of discipline.

That's the real trend we have to watch out for. One reason that Murray's rushing has been better this year is that by moving up in the pocket he can identify running lanes as they open and spring through them. If you're already 8-15 yards behind the LOS when you start scrambling, those outlets are much smaller.

See these statistical models people make are sometimes ludicrous. DVOA is crazy to say Dude from Denver was
Better. If you complete 1 pass and have 2 turnovers. You can never be ranked or graded higher than any QB ever. That is just silly.

 

[BleedRed]

How quickly we forget the days of Rosen, Bradford, Stanton, Gabbert, Lindley, Skelton, Kolb.... I mean seriously he's in his second year. He's been in the MVP conversation on and off throughout the year.... he's going to have bad games. Personally I think KK needs to become much more aggressive in his play calling. We have one of the best receivers in the game, give him a chance to make some plays down the field.

 

[Chopper0080]

How quickly we forget the days of Rosen, Bradford, Stanton, Gabbert, Lindley, Skelton, Kolb.... I mean seriously he's in his second year. He's been in the MVP conversation on and off throughout the year.... he's going to have bad games. Personally I think KK needs to become much more aggressive in his play calling. We have one of the best receivers in the game, give him a chance to make some plays down the field.

I don't think you understand the problem. You can't call an aggressive game if your QB won't sit in the pocket to let deeper routes develop. Almost every play designed has some sort of outlet and shot built in to it. The QB and protection are what decides when those are used.

 

[Stout]

Where are you getting the numbers that have you state 'he constantly slides short of the first?' Is that your impression OR do you have a tally of the plays? Even those numbers would be speculation---in your opinion of the play it might look as if he still has running room; in my opinion of the play, I might say he is getting down fast enough to allow the D player to pull up and avoid the unnecessary hit.

I don't know what KM is being coached to do? Do you? Between his runs/passing, he is our offense. Without him on the field, do we get the same yardage out of Drake? The same yards out of Nuk? K2 may be telling him to get down---even when 'the eye test' says there is room yet to run.

Also, it may be a matter of situational awareness and locating the first-down line. On some short runs, my 'eye test' tells me that he is surprised when he gets off the ground and realizes he didn't get the first. Is he sliding thinking he's got the first down when he is actually missing the mark? A sliding QB is down when anything besides his feet or hands is touching the ground. Refs are making their own split second eye test as to when and where KM's butt is hitting the turf.

Rules on Dead Ball: 10_2012_BallInPlay_DeadBall_Scrimm.pdf (nfl.com)

KM's advanced rushing stats:

You must be registered for see images attach

41 of his 97 rushes are going for 1D. He's getting 88 yards after contact. Those YAC say he is running for that first down marker and NOT going down. Add to the above numbers 11 rushing TDs that are not counted as 1D runs (I think!).

Where do you see him being able to improve based on your 'eye test?'What numbers do you have to back-up your opinion?

Ha, yeah, I'm not digging back through game film to provide you with numbers. If you can honestly tell me there haven't been plays this season where he should have gotten a first but pulled up short in his slide instead, we aren't watching the same games. I think, based upon the bolded section, we are agreed that he does miss getting first downs like this. Where we definitely agree is the possibility that it's a situational awareness problem. I've gotten the sense, like you, that he's often surprised when he doesn't make the first-down line. Now I'll go out on shaky ground by saying I think his fear of taking A hit is what's behind that lack of situational awareness, which is why he's surprised afterwards. Pure conjecture on my part, though.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Ha, yeah, I'm not digging back through game film to provide you with numbers. If you can honestly tell me there haven't been plays this season where he should have gotten a first but pulled up short in his slide instead, we aren't watching the same games. I think, based upon the bolded section, we are agreed that he does miss getting first downs like this. Where we definitely agree is the possibility that it's a situational awareness problem. I've gotten the sense, like you, that he's often surprised when he doesn't make the first-down line. Now I'll go out on shaky ground by saying I think his fear of taking A hit is what's behind that lack of situational awareness, which is why he's surprised afterwards. Pure conjecture on my part, though.

You don't want to provide any facts to support your opinion that KM "constantly slides short??' It's not my responsibility to do your homework on your opinion.

I'm fine with any and all times that KM decides to slide. He's got a better understanding of when he's going to get clocked than I do from the comfort of my reclining chair. I'll take his yards and TDs when he runs and he gets the benefit of my doubt when he slides---even if he comes up short.

 

[football karma]

If you can honestly tell me there haven't been plays this season where he should have gotten a first but pulled up short in his slide instead,

i saw that a lot last year --

less so this year where K1 has struck me as much more aggressive and willing to risk contact.

i dont know if its him, or, instructions from the HC to protect himself or both , but we havent seen it the last two weeks -- and one play in particular vs NE.

 

[HoodieBets]

How quickly we forget the days of Rosen, Bradford, Stanton, Gabbert, Lindley, Skelton, Kolb.... I mean seriously he's in his second year. He's been in the MVP conversation on and off throughout the year.... he's going to have bad games. Personally I think KK needs to become much more aggressive in his play calling. We have one of the best receivers in the game, give him a chance to make some plays down the field.

To be fair prime Kolb and Gabbert might have won that game. I’m not saying by any stretch they are in the same world as KM but he was just that bad on Sunday. If he can’t/won’t run this is not a good offense.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TheCardFan]

To be fair prime Kolb and Gabbert might have won that game.

"Prime" Kolb and Gabbert. Is that even a thing?

C'mon man!

 

[SoonerLou]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[GimmedaBall]

When Russell Wilson leaves the pocket, he is still looking for a receiver and runs when he doesn't see anything develop downfield OR when the field parts like the Red Sea. He also has a rapport with his receivers to mirror his moves and work to get open and receive the ball in stride.

In my opinion (no facts on this one), when KM leaves the pocket he is looking for a running lane or the parting of the Red Sea and when he doesn't see anything open up, he tries to pass. By this time, he is under duress from the D and lets loose a 10-yard Hail Mary in the direction of someone wearing a Cardinal uniform. We saw two such passes in the Pat game. His last second pass attempt also has him making mistakes resulting in intentional grounding penalties and the occasional INT. To keep KM contained, you see a lot of Zone-type Defense. This has the D keeping the receives and KM in front of them as they play unfolds. This cuts down KM's ability to find a running lane and forces him to abandon the notion of running and instead pass.

KM does not yet have the rapport with his receivers on how to break off their route and find open grass. Each pass play in the Air Raid has a progression of where the next 'open grass' space to move to. When KM breaks the pocket and does the dipsy-doodle behind the line, that 'run to the next open grass in your route pattern' goes haywire. Both the receivers and KM have no idea where they are supposed to move to get in position to receive the ball. Look at the Hail Mary pass to Dan Arnold in the Pat game---Arnold turned and mirrored KM and KM got him the ball with the last gasp heave. On the other hand, look at the numerous passes that miss by a mile---my guess is either KM or the receiver or both don't know how to react when the route pattern for the Air Raid breaks down. Is KM trying to hit open grass or is he anticipating the receiver mirroring his scramble? Ditto on the receiver trying to get in sync with KM.

Look at the passes where KM and Fitz are not making connections. For years, Fitz worked to mirror his QB in trouble and position himself to have leverage over the defense---is KM still looking for Fitz to be in the next open grass for that route pattern or realizing that Fitz is going to mirror him and get open?

Have the receivers switch over to 'street ball' and do their own dipsy-doodle when the play breaks down. I think KM might have a better chance of finding them.

 

[KYCardFan]

Defenses have caught up in their plan of not rushing too hard upfield and taking away Murray’s go to first read passes outside the numbers , and then bringing a picket fence blitz, trying to jump to block passes, also they play Murray on the read option with ends, willing to give up 3-5 yards on dive

KK has to counter this, by running the ball and using play action, the middle of field is wide open if he would design routes for that part of field, not his strength as play caller IMO

 

[WisconsinCard]

"Prime" Kolb and Gabbert. Is that even a thing?

C'mon man!

Well kolb did beat new england in their house. I was there, so there is that...

 

[Stout]

You don't want to provide any facts to support your opinion that KM "constantly slides short??' It's not my responsibility to do your homework on your opinion.

I'm fine with any and all times that KM decides to slide. He's got a better understanding of when he's going to get clocked than I do from the comfort of my reclining chair. I'll take his yards and TDs when he runs and he gets the benefit of my doubt when he slides---even if he comes up short.

lol This isn't a court of law, nor is it the film room. I have a, you know, ilfe, so I'm not going to spend 3 hours researching something on YOUR demand. You're fine with it, I'm not. Cool. What IS undeniable is that he continues to slide short at times. What is also undeniable is that it has happened in key situations.

 

[HoodieBets]

Well kolb did beat new england in their house. I was there, so there is that...

I was also there great game!

Fun Fact Kevin Kolb and Kyler Murray had the same number of rushing attempts from their NE games. They both rushed the ball 5 times difference is Kolb ran in for a TD.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GimmedaBall]

lol This isn't a court of law, nor is it the film room. I have a, you know, ilfe, so I'm not going to spend 3 hours researching something on YOUR demand. You're fine with it, I'm not. Cool. What IS undeniable is that he continues to slide short at times. What is also undeniable is that it has happened in key situations.

Of course, this is a court of law. Every single fan is the equivalent of 'Judge Judy' when it comes to statements made about the Cards. Especially for those that are simply opinions under the guise of factual statements. The BS detector starts going off like the air raid siren in the stadium. My question "Where are you getting the numbers that have you state 'he constantly slides short of the first?" is legitimate since you were so strong in making the statement. If you don't have the stats to back that up, don't make the statement---just say, in my opinion---and then provide your alternate reality. Your opinion is very much deniable. Stats regarding KM's rushing are there for everyone with a single click in a web browser. That doesn't require three hours of research. It's required to convince skeptical fans that you are providing more than just a 'feelin.'

What does the number 26,455 say about your claim that you have a life? Add +1 should you reply to this.

 

[Stout]

Of course, this is a court of law. Every single fan is the equivalent of 'Judge Judy' when it comes to statements made about the Cards. Especially for those that are simply opinions under the guise of factual statements. The BS detector starts going off like the air raid siren in the stadium. My question "Where are you getting the numbers that have you state 'he constantly slides short of the first?" is legitimate since you were so strong in your making the statement. If you don't have the stats to back that up, don't make the statement---just say, in my opinion---and then provide your alternate reality. Your opinion is very much deniable. Stats regarding KM's rushing are there for everyone with a single click in a web browser. That doesn't require three hours of research. It's required to convince skeptical fans that you are providing more than just a 'feelin.'

What does the number 26,455 say about your claim that you have a life?

Ooh, taking personal pot shots now. Naughty naughty! I'd say the number 26,455 says I've been a member for quite a long time

It's certainly not a court of law, but yes, I suppose a fan forum can be as crazy as a Judge Judy type of show. I don't have to do any of what you say, or be a sports researcher, to know KM is sliding short of the first down and has done so on any number of occasions this season. You KNOW he has, and have admitted as much. There's absolutely no need to dig back into game film and say he did it specifically on X play of Y quarter on Z drive. You know he's done it; I know he's done it; the board knows he's done it.

Where opinion enters into it is whether or not he's hurt the team by sliding early when he doesn't have to. You've hinted you agree he's done this by talking about his look of bewilderment after not making the first downs. I suspect our difference of opinion stems from ascribing motivations and whether or not he could have gotten said first downs without suffering major hits. I think he could, and very well should; you don't; the board is split in opinion. And that's what makes for a great message board: differing opinions.