Is nobody else concerned about Fitz not getting seperation so far in camp?

[conraddobler]

I've been pretty quiet on that front since the draft ended.
I was pretty quiet after not drafting Leftwich last year also.
I'm on board with thier picks, and I'm totally behind them.

After seeing Leftwich in the QB challenge last night on the NFL network I don't miss him at all. He has a strong arm but he throws some ducks too. I see he has potential but I thought Josh looked as good or better and he is more mobile.

 

[SECTION 11]

He will struggle with seperation his first year more than some believe but it will go away later in his career.

Exactly, and that's all I'm saying.

It's ridiculous to think that I actually want the guy to be a bust. That burns my ass.

 

[maddogkf]

Mid-major. Sorry about that. It's not like Moss was playing Florida State or Michigan or anything. That's what I meant.

C'mon - Marshall played some quality opponents...

OK, I concede :hangsheadinshame:

1997-Marshall (MAC)​

8/30@West Virginia (7-5)L31-42
9/6@Army (4-7)W35-25
9/13@*Kent (3-8)W42-17
9/20vs.Western Illinois (non-IA)W48-7
9/27@*Ball State (5-6)W42-16
10/11vs.*Akron (2-9)W52-17
10/18@*Miami (Ohio) (8-3)L21-45
10/25vs.*Eastern Michigan (4-7)W48-25
11/1@*Central Michigan (2-9)W45-17
11/8vs.*Bowling Green State (3-8)W28-0
11/15vs.*Ohio (8-3)W27-0
12/5vs.*Toledo (9-3)W34-14@ Huntington, WVMAC Championship
12/26vs.Mississippi (8-4)L31-34@ Pontiac, MIMotor City Bowl

10-3-0


​

 

[maddogkf]

Exactly, and that's all I'm saying.

It's ridiculous to think that I actually want the guy to be a bust. That burns my ass.

like Filiberto's? that's tough!

 

[SECTION 11]

like Filiberto's? that's tough!

It's similar, but in a more Cajun kinda way.

 

[chickenhead]

No worries. We'll have our Randy Moss next year when we draft Mike Williams. We'll get our Steven Jackson the year after that--though he'll be playing WR.

 

[Southpaw]

That being said, why did we spend the #3 overall pick on Cris Carter, when Randy Moss was chosen three spots later?

cause........................ It's a man love Green / Fitz thing ??????????????

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

If we burned a #3 overall pick for a guy that manages Cris Carter's 12.6 career YPC average, I'm going to be disappointed.

Are you suggesting that you wouldn't waste a #3 overall pick on a first ballot Hall-of-Famer just because he had a less than average YPC?

 

[Russ Smith]

Mid-major. Sorry about that. It's not like Moss was playing Florida State or Michigan or anything. That's what I meant.

I think that Fitz will end up being like T.O. Owens doesn't have great stopwatch speed, but makes up for it in strength, precise routes, moves, and passion to be the best. I think that Fitz won't have the three-year learning curve that T.O. had, which will be good.

If we burned a #3 overall pick for a guy that manages Cris Carter's 12.6 career YPC average, I'm going to be disappointed.

Yeah but the one thing Fitz did NOT show in college was YAC, and that's TO's specialty. Hopefully that's because Fitz's QB wasn't accurate enough to lead him into YAC.

My one concern on Fitz is it's hard to project a REALLY polished WR because you make assumptions on normal "progress" that may not happen(because the kid already does it). I made that mistake with Jabar Gaffney(father an NFL WR) and so far he's been nothing special at all. I think Fitz will be a much better player than Gaffney, but I thought Gaffney was going to be a quality pro too.

Williams is the most intriguing, he simply played in a system that didn't have a clue how to use him, and still made enough plays every year that everyone saw the talent. I think he and Rogers are going to be special.

 

[Southpaw]

Yeah but the one thing Fitz did NOT show in college was YAC, and that's TO's specialty. Hopefully that's because Fitz's QB wasn't accurate enough to lead him into YAC.

My one concern on Fitz is it's hard to project a REALLY polished WR because you make assumptions on normal "progress" that may not happen(because the kid already does it). I made that mistake with Jabar Gaffney(father an NFL WR) and so far he's been nothing special at all. I think Fitz will be a much better player than Gaffney, but I thought Gaffney was going to be a quality pro too.

Williams is the most intriguing, he simply played in a system that didn't have a clue how to use him, and still made enough plays every year that everyone saw the talent. I think he and Rogers are going to be special.

Might want to throw in Andre Johnson in that mix.

 

[Russ Smith]

Might want to throw in Andre Johnson in that mix.

True Miami had no clue how to use him either (-:

Sorry I was only talking about this years top rookie WR's, of that group I think Williams is the most interesting, and has the highest ceiling. Whether he'll get there or not is something different, the great thing about Fitz is he's proven his work ethic and ability to accept coaching and get better. For all the knocks on the Texas coaching, the fact is there WERE lots of comments about Roy being "lazy" or slow to learn things in college, you never heard that about Fitz.

Hey I still would have probably taken Sean Taylor if I were running our draft but I do think fitz is going to be a terrific player.

 

[kerouac9]

Are you suggesting that you wouldn't waste a #3 overall pick on a first ballot Hall-of-Famer just because he had a less than average YPC?

Yeah. What was Carter's production under his first contract? 89 receptions, 1450 yards (16.3 YPC), 19 TDs. From a #3 overall pick, you expect that production almost EVERY SEASON. During his peak years (1993-1999), Carter's greatest average was 13.8 per grab.

HoF players generally get that way because they are astoundingly good over (and this is the important part) over an extended period of time. There's no telling whether or not Fitz can (1) match the production of Cris Carter or (2) match the longevity of Cris Carter.

To me, when drafting high, you can't worry about a player's projection over 6 years, much less the 16 that Carter played. You have to worry about what the player can do for you in his first handful of seasons. This is part of the reason that I'm against drafting WRs high to begin with, because they take so long to develop.

I also want a player that is going to put fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators. I know that Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, and Charles Rogers do that because of their combination of skills and abilities. I don't believe that Anquan does the same thing because while he has great skills, he lacks the ability to stretch defenses before the ball is in the air. If Fitz has the same (or better) skills, but still lacks that ability, then I don't know why we burned a #3 like that, when there were players available that had similar skills plus advanced abilities and talent (like R. Williams, Sean Taylor, and KW3, or Ben Roethlisberger, for that matter).

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Yeah. What was Carter's production under his first contract? 89 receptions, 1450 yards (16.3 YPC), 19 TDs. From a #3 overall pick, you expect that production almost EVERY SEASON. During his peak years (1993-1999), Carter's greatest average was 13.8 per grab.

Carter's YPC was 13.8. Who cares? How many TDs did he have? How many catches did he have for first downs? You don't have to jump twelve feet in the air and make one-handed catches to be an impact WR.

HoF players generally get that way because they are astoundingly good over (and this is the important part) over an extended period of time. There's no telling whether or not Fitz can (1) match the production of Cris Carter or (2) match the longevity of Cris Carter.

The same could be said with Roy Williams or any other WR taken in the draft. Fitzgerald has had a better track record with injuries than Legend, who's only that in his own mind and for the stopwatches.

I also want a player that is going to put fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators. I know that Andre Johnson, Roy Williams, and Charles Rogers do that because of their combination of skills and abilities. I don't believe that Anquan does the same thing because while he has great skills, he lacks the ability to stretch defenses before the ball is in the air. If Fitz has the same (or better) skills, but still lacks that ability, then I don't know why we burned a #3 like that, when there were players available that had similar skills plus advanced abilities and talent (like R. Williams, Sean Taylor, and KW3, or Ben Roethlisberger, for that matter).

Fitz was better in college than all of those players with the exception of possibly Taylor, who like you I would have taken over Fitzgerald. But you're fooling yourself if you think DCs only are afraid of guys like you mentioned. Cris Carter struck fear into DCs not because of his speed or his vert, but because as a DC you knew that the offense you were facing was going to score more touchdown and convert more third downs.

You're falling victim to your preference for flashly players. When our red zone efficiency and third-down conversion rates go up this year because of Fitzgerald's abilities in those situations, I'm sure that will cause DCs just as much anxiety as Roy Williams forty times.

 

[chickenhead]

At the very least, intriguing questions that I look forward to being answered in the next couple of seasons.

On the one hand, I would be concerned with Green being blinded to the other WR's talent due to his affinity for Fitzgerald. On the other hand, I respect the fact that Green thinks Fitzgerlad will play the best for him and in his system, which is what all of the options would have to do, talent notwithstanding.

I must admit that the talk of Fitz' maturity and work ethic was what intrigues me most. I know Moss and T.O. are great receivers, and Moss especially may attain the maturity that allows him to have a long, distinguished career. However, I must admit that I've tired of a lot of the child's play. That's why cheering for Anquan has been awesome.

 

[kerouac9]

Carter's YPC was 13.8. Who cares? How many TDs did he have? How many catches did he have for first downs? You don't have to jump twelve feet in the air and make one-handed catches to be an impact WR.

The same could be said with Roy Williams or any other WR taken in the draft. Fitzgerald has had a better track record with injuries than Legend, who's only that in his own mind and for the stopwatches.

Fitz was better in college than all of those players with the exception of possibly Taylor, who like you I would have taken over Fitzgerald. But you're fooling yourself if you think DCs only are afraid of guys like you mentioned. Cris Carter struck fear into DCs not because of his speed or his vert, but because as a DC you knew that the offense you were facing was going to score more touchdown and convert more third downs.

You're falling victim to your preference for flashly players. When our red zone efficiency and third-down conversion rates go up this year because of Fitzgerald's abilities in those situations, I'm sure that will cause DCs just as much anxiety as Roy Williams forty times.

As chickenhead said, it'll be interesting to see how this all shakes out. I do have a prejudice toward flashier players, and that may color my judgement. I hope Green's right and that Fitz is the right choice.

What I will say is that by drafting Fitz, you're putting pressure on two players to perform (Fitz to move chains/score TDs, B. Johnson/B. Gilmore to stretch Ds) and stay healthy to do the work of a home-run prospect like Rogers/Johnson/Williams.

 

[joeshmo]

I do have a prejudice toward flashier players, and that may color my judgement.

I think we all do that. We even look at the flashier stats like YPC, YAC, Yards, TDs. We then way overlook things like 3rd down %, 1st downs, redzone %, blocking(cant be quantified but is very important none the less, this is what seperates Hines Ward form a lot of other WR's IMO), is he taking away double teams from the guy opposite him letting him get all the flashy stats, ect.

All very good points people.

 

[kerouac9]

I think we all do that. We even look at the flashier stats like YPC, YAC, Yards, TDs. We then way overlook things like 3rd down %, 1st downs, redzone %, blocking(cant be quantified but is very important none the less, this is what seperates Hines Ward form a lot of other WR's IMO), is he taking away double teams from the guy opposite him letting him get all the flashy stats, ect.

All very good points people.

You're the stat guy, joe. Do you know any site that tracks YAC yards? NFL and ESPN.com doesn't, and I have this idea that many of Anquan's yards came after the catch, but I can't quantify it.

 

[SECTION 11]

You're the stat guy, joe. Do you know any site that tracks YAC yards? NFL and ESPN.com doesn't, and I have this idea that many of Anquan's yards came after the catch, but I can't quantify it.

Doesn't the Stats Inc. site have it?

 

[SECTION 11]

You're the stat guy, joe. Do you know any site that tracks YAC yards? NFL and ESPN.com doesn't, and I have this idea that many of Anquan's yards came after the catch, but I can't quantify it.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/players/6390/game_log.html

 

[joeshmo]

You're the stat guy, joe. Do you know any site that tracks YAC yards? NFL and ESPN.com doesn't, and I have this idea that many of Anquan's yards came after the catch, but I can't quantify it.

Sports illustrated does. They also have how many 1st down grabs a WR has.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/players/6390/receiving_splits.html

Some things to Notice about Boldin.

1. He totally excells on turf. 41% of his Yac came on turf in 4 games compared to 59% in 12 games on grass.

2. 3rd down is his favorite place. 48% of his 1st downs came on 3rd down.

3. He got most of his stats in single back 3+ wide formations.

4. 41% of his total yards came from YAC.

 

[joeshmo]

Doesn't the Stats Inc. site have it?

they dont keep track of yac.

 

[Chaz]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/players/6390/game_log.html

From that site it looks like 41% of his yards were YAC. (571 of 1377)


EDIT: DOH too slow

 

[kerouac9]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/nfl/players/6390/game_log.html

Thanks. Over 40% of Anquan's yardage last season was after the catch. By comparison, Torry Holt had 22.3% of his yards after the catch, Marvin Harrison had just over 25% of his yards after the catch, and just over 1/3 of T.O.'s yards were after the catch.

EDIT: Analysis: this just props up the thesis the Anquan can't get behind secondaries. He excells in the short passes, but the fact that his yardage after the catch was so disproportionate in comparison to the other top wideouts, it makes me think that he was blowing up the shorter routes, but failing to connect on the bombs.

Another interesting note: while we all know that Anquan's production sagged once Josh McCown took the starter's mantle, it's not because he wasn't looking Anquan's way. Anquan averaged 10 targets per game over the first 13 games of 2003, and 11.7 targets per game over the last three.

 

[SECTION 11]

It is interesting.

How many of Gilmore's yards were yac I wonder. Or any other speed guy? If you're theory holds true the burner/deep threats should be low.
Charles Rogers, there's a comparison that should bear out.

 

[Russ Smith]

I think we all do that. We even look at the flashier stats like YPC, YAC, Yards, TDs. We then way overlook things like 3rd down %, 1st downs, redzone %, blocking(cant be quantified but is very important none the less, this is what seperates Hines Ward form a lot of other WR's IMO), is he taking away double teams from the guy opposite him letting him get all the flashy stats, ect.

All very good points people.

That's really the test in Detroit, with Rogers and Williams on turf one would assume they're going to be spectacular. But it's going to be VERY interesting to see if they mesh well since both guys are "speed" WR's. The general rule is you want to have a deep threat, and a move the chains guy, very few NFL teams have had 2 really fast deep threats, and those that did (Rams come to mind) didn't have guys as big as Rogers and Williams.

On the Bronco Freak site there's a poll on future WR duos, when I last checked QUan and Fitz were leading Rogers/Williams in votes largely I suspect because Quan has already put up huge numbers. Detroit has 2 speed guys and no proven 3rd down make the tough catch guy, we have 2 such guys but don't know if either will be explosive enough to stretch defenses.