NBA Draft 7-29-2021: Suns select?

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

What's your argument here? Detroit sent him to the G-League a bunch his rookie season. So what? By that rationale, Jalen Smith could end up like Khris Middleton?

I don't know what your so upset about. Jalen Smith has had plenty of time to learn our playbooks. The whole purpose of the G-League is to get time on the court. "Plays" are secondary because, you know, 85% of that league will never sniff an NBA roster. Are you mad we don't have our own affiliate? Why?

Also that 85% leaves a WHOPPING 15% that will see the court. Your team hits on the one or two gems and you’re years ahead of where you would’ve been otherwise. But yeah, let’s let that be another team . . .

 

[Chaplin]

Sigh, “so upset?” cmon chap. We have always heard in every sport that details won championships. If your team isn’t do absolutely everything possible to win they’re lagging competition. It’s that simple. And if you think “plays” are the only thing that owning a g league team means you’re missing the importance of culture you’re missing the importance of integration of coaching teams and the ability to dictate what a player works on and court time, etc.

That said, my previous post was just meant to blow your comment that no g league impacted winning a championship off the site. Mission accomplished.

I think you're overblowing it by a lot. Using a few games by Khris Middleton in 2012 isn't exactly a good support to your argument. Most rookies from the last 10 years spent some time in the G-League. That doesn't make them a "G-Leaguer" in a strict definition of the term.

It's not like they are in the G-League the entire season anyway. Middleton played in 3 games in the G-League. 3!! How helpful for culture and coachability do you think those 3 games were? He played in 27 games with Detroit that year. He's not a G-Leaguer.

 

[Chaplin]

Also that 85% leaves a WHOPPING 15% that will see the court. Your team hits on the one or two gems and you’re years ahead of where you would’ve been otherwise. But yeah, let’s let that be another team . . .

There are AT LEAST 290 players in the G-League (29 teams, with a minimum of 10 players per team). 15% is only 43 players out of 290. And how many of those 43 would end up like Khris Middleton (i.e. a crucial star in an NBA Finals)? 2, 3 tops? Come on. Milwaukee is blessed in that Middleton is a good player and was always going to be a good player. Those 3 games in the G-League had NOTHING to do with it.

 

[Mainstreet]

The NBA Draft is a grab bag after a certain point.

I'm not sure where the cutoff is but there should be surprises when teams get into the twenties.

Sandro Mamukelashvili is a big C/F prospect with talent that make go late second round or may go undrafted.

Empire of the Suns’ NBA Draft 1st impressions, Pt. 2: Variety bag

The Phoenix Suns will have plenty of options at the end of the first round of the 2021 NBA Draft, including a few unconventional prospects.

arizonasports.com

 

[Finito]

I will be really disappointed if we don’t make a move. The 29th pick isn’t going to put us over the edge. It’s already been gone over the success rate that low in the draft.

I think Bridges, Cam, Crowder, Stix, 29 can all be on the table. Out of those I’d prefer Cam and Stix to stay but who knows

 

[Covert Rain]

I have heard multiple insiders say they are hearing this season might be very trade heavy. One of the busiest ever. If that is true, I would expect to see a bunch of these picks be part of those trades. These next couple days sound interesting. The Lakers want a starting PG material it sounds like and have all kinds of things in the works.

Just is going to add pressure to James Jones to make a move. He can't stand pat when other teams are adding IMO.

 

[Covert Rain]

The NBA Draft is a grab bag after a certain point.

I'm not sure where the cutoff is but there should be surprises when teams get into the twenties.

Sandro Mamukelashvili is a big C/F prospect with talent that make go late second round or may go undrafted.

Empire of the Suns’ NBA Draft 1st impressions, Pt. 2: Variety bag

The Phoenix Suns will have plenty of options at the end of the first round of the 2021 NBA Draft, including a few unconventional prospects.

arizonasports.com

I found this and this is why the Suns should make a move if they need a impact player now. If they are in rebuild mode that is different. They used data over 25 years. It appears it's basically a grab bag after 3 picks and after the first 7 the odds are straight up against you. Sure you can get lucky but the odds are against you. Show me a team that relies on this luck and I will show you a team that won't stay on top very long.

This first thing seems offensive focused but it's also based on the idea that even you are a lottery pick for defense or passing the idea in the NBA is that you can at least score in double figures (min 10) and contribute to your team. There will always be outliers but these numbers are for MOST NBA players. This holds true if you watched what happened when Bridges, Cam or Crowder scored in double figures for example.

80 percent of the players drafted No. 1, 2 and 3 have averaged at least 10 points in the NBA or more.
Picks 4-7 61 percent.
Picks 8-11 42 percent
Picks 12-15 29 percent.
Beyond pick 15?

The odds of a player staying in the NBA (within 5 years of being drafted) after the lottery picks are around 42% for non-lottery picks. Around 20% are still in the league after the 1st round.

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[Covert Rain]

Here is another analysis showing win shares by pick, the top 25 picks of all time and their impact to win shares. Only 5 players drafted outside the top 10 and nothing lower than 14 has had a major impact on their teams win shares. So to me this means if the Suns want a better shot at an impact player drafting above 10 isn't likely to get it done.

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[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

There are AT LEAST 290 players in the G-League (29 teams, with a minimum of 10 players per team). 15% is only 43 players out of 290. And how many of those 43 would end up like Khris Middleton (i.e. a crucial star in an NBA Finals)? 2, 3 tops? Come on. Milwaukee is blessed in that Middleton is a good player and was always going to be a good player. Those 3 games in the G-League had NOTHING to do with it.

You’re right. The suns should ignore a potential source of talent.

 

[Chaplin]

You’re right. The suns should ignore a potential source of talent.

Hmm, nobody said ignore, but thanks for putting words in my mouth. I just don't think the G-League is as big a source as you'd like it to be. And it has nothing to do with whether we have an affiliate or not. You think it's a mistake not to have one. I disagree. That's it.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Hmm, nobody said ignore, but thanks for putting words in my mouth. I just don't think the G-League is as big a source as you'd like it to be. And it has nothing to do with whether we have an affiliate or not. You think it's a mistake not to have one. I disagree. That's it.

No one said “big source.” I said a source. Again, little things win championships. Every little thing a team skips provides opponents an advantage. I don’t like putting my team at a disadvantage, even a small one.

 

[Chaplin]

I'm liking Sharife Cooper now. Of course, this is all based on draft videos, which of course only show the good stuff. The guy is a spectacular passer. And he's likely not even a 1st round talent. But I like him anyway.

 

[Chaplin]

No one said “big source.” I said a source. Again, little things win championships. Every little thing a team skips provides opponents an advantage. I don’t like putting my team at a disadvantage, even a small one.

I also didn't say "big source." I said "as big a source."

 

[jlove]

I can see 29 being part of a trade with a player or 2 to get a core player.

If we don't have that type of trade in the works, I wouldn't mind trading back, with say OKC in order to grab 2 or more players. Not much cap room and will need smaller contracts to fill out roster. Some of these draftees look better than what we had off the bench this year.

Several guards will be there at 29 as well as with later picks, Mann, McBride, Bones, Springer, Cooper, etc. McBride kinda gives me a Booker-Lite feel with his game.

Our biggest need behind CP3 and Payne (IMO CP3 takes a cap friendly deal in order to keep Payne here), is backup 4/5. Whether that comes in the shape via trade/FA/draft is to be seen. Some of the draftee bigs I like are Sharpe, Queta, Bassey. Queta and Bassey has that bulldozer, kill the rim vibe that we need.

 

[Covert Rain]

I can see 29 being part of a trade with a player or 2 to get a core player.

If we don't have that type of trade in the works, I wouldn't mind trading back, with say OKC in order to grab 2 or more players. Not much cap room and will need smaller contracts to fill out roster. Some of these draftees look better than what we had off the bench this year.

Several guards will be there at 29 as well as with later picks, Mann, McBride, Bones, Springer, Cooper, etc. McBride kinda gives me a Booker-Lite feel with his game.

Our biggest need behind CP3 and Payne (IMO CP3 takes a cap friendly deal in order to keep Payne here), is backup 4/5. Whether that comes in the shape via trade/FA/draft is to be seen. Some of the draftee bigs I like are Sharpe, Queta, Bassey.

If we intend on keeping Payne I hope they are targeting a PF/C through a trade. IMO, we don't need the #29 pick. We need to use it as part of a transaction.

 

[Muggz]

Anyone available around 6'11-7 ft bout 250/300lbs that has a horrible habit of breaking the rim off the backboard?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I also didn't say "big source." I said "as big a source."

Tell me, how “big” a source was I making it considering you think you know how big I was making it? Particularly after I repeatedly said “the small things.”

 

[Yuma]

Hmm, nobody said ignore, but thanks for putting words in my mouth. I just don't think the G-League is as big a source as you'd like it to be. And it has nothing to do with whether we have an affiliate or not. You think it's a mistake not to have one. I disagree. That's it.

One could argue our team really started to improve when we got rid of our G League team....

 

[Mainstreet]

Again not saying it never happens. However, the numbers are extremely lopsided. That doesn't even factor the number of years it takes to develop that talent assuming you nailed one.

Here is another analysis showing win shares by pick, the top 25 picks of all time and their impact to win shares. Only 5 players drafted outside the top 10 and nothing lower than 14 has had a major impact on their teams win shares. So to me this means if the Suns want a better shot at an impact player drafting above 10 isn't likely to get it done.

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Mostly with later draft picks and UDFA free agents a team is looking for role players and depth. Another way to put it, teams are looking for cheap talent. They are not usually not looking for impact players although sometimes a team can strike gold, e.g., Nikola Jokic.

Because the odds of finding talent later in the draft is much lower shouldn't mean a team should quit looking. If a team can find a player that can contribute every so often, it's worth the effort.

Also I think using league average percentages in regard to such players can be misleading. Some teams are better at finding hidden talent than others such as the Heat and Raptors while some teams are bad at it like the Suns.

I do agree that a legitimate argument can be made that while the Suns window is open they should concentrate on veteran talent. However, I doubt the Suns are looking for anything other than depth at #29.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Hmm, nobody said ignore, but thanks for putting words in my mouth. I just don't think the G-League is as big a source as you'd like it to be. And it has nothing to do with whether we have an affiliate or not. You think it's a mistake not to have one. I disagree. That's it.

Whether it has been a big deal or not in the past, I believe it is going to be a big deal going forward. With the changing landscape in college basketball, not having a G league affiliate will put us at a disadvantage, eventually. Hopefully we don't wait too long before we re-join the G League club.

 

[Mainstreet]

The Suns got Cam Payne out of the G-League.

 

[Chaplin]

The Suns got Cam Payne out of the G-League.

They didn’t need their own affiliate to do it.

 

[Covert Rain]

Mostly with later draft picks and UDFA free agents a team is looking for role players and depth. Another way to put it, teams are looking for cheap talent. They are not usually not looking for impact players although sometimes a team can strike gold, e.g., Nikola Jokic.

Because the odds of finding talent later in the draft is much lower shouldn't mean a team should quit looking. If a team can find a player that can contribute every so often, it's worth the effort.

Also I think using league average percentages in regard to such players can be misleading. Some teams are better at finding hidden talent than others such as the Heat and Raptors while some teams are bad at it like the Suns.

I do agree that a legitimate argument can be made that while the Suns window is open they should concentrate on veteran talent. However, I doubt the Suns are looking for anything other than depth at #29.

Depth requires that they contribute. No way a #29 gives you any depth likely this year or next if they even stay on the team.

 

[Chaplin]

Depth requires that they contribute. No way a #29 gives you any depth likely this year or next if they even stay on the team.

There’s a slim possibility if it’s a guard, but you’re definitely right if it’s a big.

 

[Covert Rain]

There’s a slim possibility if it’s a guard, but you’re definitely right if it’s a big.

It's possible but he would have to be pretty good and outplay Payne. I think depth at that position has to be secondary or it doesn't really help us next year.