NBA West Playoffs!

[elindholm]

Hollinger's model now has the Suns at 53% to make the playoffs, down a little from a day ago, so it looks like it was counting on Memphis to lose to Miami (in most trials).

 

[Bert]

As if I needed another reason to hate the Heat...

 

[Neo]

Let's hope that the Spurs v. Mavericks game goes into triple overtime . . maybe there can be fight with lots of suspensions . . or alien abductions? Anything that slows both teams down for our road back-to-back this weekend will be very welcome.

I am going to Friday night's game versus the Spurs. I anticipate getting lots of dirty looks from rednecks.

 

[AfroSuns]

I really don't think Pop fears a match-up of the most experienced team in the playoffs playing the least experienced team playoffs...or facing a Memphis team who they swept last year. Probably doesn't fear that tissue paper soft D in Dallas either.

if he's resting guys, it's probably because he wants his team fresh much more so then it being an indicator of who he'd rather face in the playoffs.

I think you just prove the point i am trying to make.

There is no way the coaching team are not going to be looking at who will give them the least problem in the first round. I don't think they will want a young hungry underdog like the Suns...
It may not be up to them on how this eventually ends, but Pop can influence it in his own little way. They beat Dallas tonight and rest starters against the Suns. The Suns stays at 7.

The Suns have been the worst matchup for the Spurs among all three this season, with the Spurs winning close games. They had the best record in the league and playing like a champion in 2010 when the Suns swept them on the way to a west final.

 

[Catlover]

I think you just prove the point i am trying to make.

There is no way the coaching team are not going to be looking at who will give them the least problem in the first round. I don't think they will want a young hungry underdog like the Suns...
It may not be up to them on how this eventually ends, but Pop can influence it in his own little way. They beat Dallas tonight and rest starters against the Suns. The Suns stays at 7.

The Suns have been the worst matchup for the Spurs among all three this season, with the Spurs winning close games. They had the best record in the league and playing like a champion in 2010 when the Suns swept them on the way to a west final.

If I were Pop, Phoenix would be my first choice. We have by far the least amount of playoff experience of the three. I don't think he'll factor in his choice of opponent though. Not because he'd have an ethical problem in manipulating the standings, I just don't think he'd take any kind of unnecessary risk without a pretty sure chance of success. It's probably not likely but how many people thought that GS winning that series against the Mavericks a few years back was because Dallas tried to cherry-pick their opponent? Maybe if there were a clear cut easy opponent he'd do it but the Spurs have faltered in the playoffs against lesser foes several times in recent memory.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think you just prove the point i am trying to make.

There is no way the coaching team are not going to be looking at who will give them the least problem in the first round. I don't think they will want a young hungry underdog like the Suns...

Pop cares about his guys being healthy. That's about it. And the idea that they'd be more afraid of a team with zero experience then a Memphis team they've battled hard in the past just seems like extreme homerism to me.

It may not be up to them on how this eventually ends, but Pop can influence it in his own little way. They beat Dallas tonight and rest starters against the Suns. The Suns stays at 7.

The Suns have been the worst matchup for the Spurs among all three this season, with the Spurs winning close games.

Maybe...but Pop knows there's a hell of a lot difference between regular season basketball, where small ball can be successful from time to time and playoff basketball where we would be exposed.

They had the best record in the league and playing like a champion in 2010 when the Suns swept them on the way to a west final.

What are you talking about? They were the 7 seed, upset Dallas and we were the 3 seed we beat them. And I'm not sure what 2010 even has to do with this year considering there's not a single player outside Frye from the 2010 Suns team playing on the 2014 version.

 

[Mainstreet]

Dragic is listed as questionable for tomorrow's night game against the Spurs with a sprained left ankle. If I know Dragic, he will try to play if he can walk.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...n-dragic-questionable-key-game-spurs/7578727/

 

[Mainstreet]

San Antonio beats Dallas tonight and the Suns are in 7th place with one less loss than Dallas and Memphis. It will be interesting to see how the Suns play the Spurs and Mavericks in regard to strategy on a back-to-back.

 

[elindholm]

It will be interesting to see how the Suns play the Spurs and Mavericks in regard to strategy on a back-to-back.

The Suns can't afford to be cute. They need to do whatever they can to win both games.

 

[Catlover]

The Suns can't afford to be cute. They need to do whatever they can to win both games.

I'd take a split and be happy with it if there was something we could do that would make it likely. I'm not sure there is though.

 

[Joe Mama]

If I were the San Antonio Spurs I would want to play Phoenix not because of the lack of experience but rather because we have a weak front court, especially defensively.

Joe

 

[AfroSuns]

What are you talking about? They were the 7 seed, upset Dallas and we were the 3 seed we beat them. And I'm not sure what 2010 even has to do with this year considering there's not a single player outside Frye from the 2010 Suns team playing on the 2014 version.

My mistake, You are right that was the Spurs team that advance to 2nd round by beating Dallas...

 

[AfroSuns]

Dragic is listed as questionable for tomorrow's night game against the Spurs with a sprained left ankle. If I know Dragic, he will try to play if he can walk.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...n-dragic-questionable-key-game-spurs/7578727/

I say sit him and take our chances and hope Green can bring it. maybe Ish can get some major minutes guarding Patty Mills too

 

[Chaplin]

I just got an alert that Parker and Duncan are not expected to play.

 

[HooverDam]

I just got an alert that Parker and Duncan are not expected to play.

Nice.

I'd say rest Dragic if he's questionable, see if he can go against Dallas. Beating the Mavs is more important than beating SA.

 

[Griffin]

So the Suns blew another big lead and fell out of a playoff spot again. But, if they win the last three, they are guaranteed to make playoffs. They still control their own destiny. And it looks like you're going to have to win 50 to make playoffs in the West this year.

 

[elindholm]

And it looks like you're going to have to win 50 to make playoffs in the West this year.

49 is still enough in most scenarios. If it's a three-way tie at 49, the Suns are out, but otherwise I think that would do it for them. Still, that's an awfully tough standard just to qualify for the postseason. Many of us speak derisively of "50 and fade," but that number used to get you a mid-range playoff seed, at least.

 

[JCSunsfan]

49 is still enough in most scenarios. If it's a three-way tie at 49, the Suns are out, but otherwise I think that would do it for them. Still, that's an awfully tough standard just to qualify for the postseason. Many of us speak derisively of "50 and fade," but that number used to get you a mid-range playoff seed, at least.

I would love to make the playoffs, but if they win 48 or 49 and don't make it, the better draft pick is a great consolation AND they have not surrendered their winning atmosphere. I just really don't see any scenario that is that bad from here on.

 

[BC867]

I would love to make the playoffs, but if they win 48 or 49 and don't make it, the better draft pick is a great consolation AND they have not surrendered their winning atmosphere. I just really don't see any scenario that is that bad from here on.

I had come to the same conclusion. We lost to the depleted Spurs team because we weren't good enough to hold the lead or beat them.

We will never know if this year's Suns would have held on with a healthy Dragic (which would have negated some of the stats from Bledsoe and Green and shows that our skills are in the backcourt).

When all is said and done, the big picture shows that the Suns, under new Head Coach Jeff Hornacek, had a helluva season and formed a foundation for future growth, if they balance the team, cover their shortcomings and concentrate on adding a frontcourt player or two who are more consistent than our starting Center or Power Forward.

 

[Catlover]

I would love to make the playoffs, but if they win 48 or 49 and don't make it, the better draft pick is a great consolation AND they have not surrendered their winning atmosphere. I just really don't see any scenario that is that bad from here on.

We're at 47 wins right now and unless Dragic heals quickly I think there's a very good chance that we'll finish with that same number. This team is worn down and too many players are limping to the finish line. Tucker has been a shadow of himself the last six weeks except for a handful of games where he's risen to the occasion but nothing like what he had been doing every single game. Frye, well we all know about Frye. Green still has plenty of energy left but unless two others also step up big we're probably in trouble.

I've counted this team out before and been wrong (at the All Star break I thought we'd be well out of the race by this time) but I think last night was probably our last gasp. We might bounce back and steal one from Dallas but like you, I'm fine if we ultimately fall short. We get the better draft pick and the younger players still get to experience what happens when you reach the point where every game is critical. They'll hopefully be better prepared next year.

 

[Phrazbit]

I believe that, because Dallas and Memphis play each-other, as long as we win ONE of the next two, and then beat Sacramento, we're in.

Its very convoluted with the tie breakers but pretty sure it all works out.

 

[Catlover]

I believe that, because Dallas and Memphis play each-other, as long as we win ONE of the next two, and then beat Sacramento, we're in.

Its very convoluted with the tie breakers but pretty sure it all works out.

Probably. I don't like our chance of beating any of those three teams let alone two of them but I agree, it would probably be enough.

 

[Griffin]

I believe that, because Dallas and Memphis play each-other, as long as we win ONE of the next two, and then beat Sacramento, we're in.

Its very convoluted with the tie breakers but pretty sure it all works out.

I don't believe so. Assuming that both Phoenix and Memphis win their one lone remaining game against other competition (Suns vs. Kings and Grizz vs. Lakers), then if each of the three teams vying for playoffs spots wins one and loses one against each other, we will have a three-team tie at 49-33. The Suns will finish last in that tie-breaker having the worst winning percentage against the other two teams.

The only way for the Suns to make the playoffs if they lose one of the two games is if the team they lose to also wins their other game (in other words, one of the other two teams goes 0-2). For example, if the Suns lose to Dallas and Dallas lose to Memphis, then the Suns would be out even if they beat Memphis.

 

[Phrazbit]

Probably. I don't like our chance of beating any of those three teams let alone two of them but I agree, it would probably be enough.

I think it would mathematically clinch it.

Let me try and lay it out and see if the numbers make sense...

All of the following assumes we beat Sacramento... which is not a given but for the purpose of making the playoffs it needs to be.

Lets say we beat Dallas, lose to Memphis. We end up at 49-33. Dallas and Memphis play each other, if Memphis wins then we end up tied with Dallas, get in on head to head tie breaker. If Dallas wins then its a 3 way tie, tie first tie breaker is record of 3 tied teams vs, eachother (we'd be .500, so someone HAS to be worse or all teams are tied in the stat) 2nd tie breaker is conference record, we're in, Memphis is out with one more conference loss than Phoenix and Dallas.

Lets say we lose to Dallas, beat Memphis. Again, 49-33. Dallas beats Memphis, we're in with a game better record than Memphis. Memphis beats Dallas, 3 way tie, we're again in based on conference record and/or head to head record (which again we'd be .500).

Its kind of convoluted, but I believe thats how it plays out.

But this being our luck, no doubt we will beat one of them, have it in hand then blow a 15 point 4th quarter lead to the Kings and screw ourselves.

 

[Phrazbit]

I don't believe so. Assuming that both Phoenix and Memphis win their one lone remaining game against other competition (Suns vs. Kings and Grizz vs. Lakers), then if each of the three teams vying for playoffs spots wins one and loses one against each other, we will have a three-team tie at 49-33. The Suns will finish last in that tie-breaker having the worst winning percentage against the other two teams.

The only way for the Suns to make the playoffs if they lose one of the two games is if the team they lose to also wins their other game (in other words, one of the other two teams goes 0-2). For example, if the Suns lose to Dallas and Dallas lose to Memphis, then the Suns would be out even if they beat Memphis.

Crap... you're right. I just typed out that entire last post thinking we'd played Dallas 3 times, not just twice.

Son of a...