So what will you be saying if any of your 13 points do not come to pass?
The points aren't all mutually exclusive, in fact a lot of them overlap. I'm just setting my criteria for what makes a good or bad trade, contract extension, and first season performance. If the Cards meet or do better than any of these, I'll congratulate them for a job well done. If the Cards give up more, then I reserve the right to complain about a deal done, and I'm trying to inoculate myself from the criticism that I'd hate any deal the Cards came to.
For Kolb's performance, it's admittedly a sliding scale. The poster above is right that he'll have a hard time hitting 3500 yards passing if he doesn't start more than 12 games. But I expect him to start at least 12 games, and as a starting quarterback in the NFL he should get to 3500 yards. Ben Roethlisberger got to 3200 yards and he was suspended and not allowed to practice with his team for four weeks.
I still got the same Kolb notes, if he sucks we over payed. If he's good it doesn't matter what we payed. We've done good with some and bad with some, especially QBs. I personally think things are really planned out for once. Time is all we have and time will tell sorta thing. Hope he is here when the camp goes.
But what does "sucks" and "good" look like? If Kolb makes the Pro Bowl next year, is any price justified? Two first rounders and DRC?
In a normal situation, I'd agree they would have been worth at least a -2 in victories but we had big problems even before these guys failed so spectacularly. Maybe it was just me but I thought our performance on D in the Houston preseason game drove home the fact that this was a very flawed team. Yes, our offense was so bad that our D would have eventually packed it in for the season in addition to wearing down in each game - but, we never even reached that point because our defense managed to stink it up all by themselves. And, let's face it, we were VERY lucky to get even 5 wins last season. I think people are still underestimating what we lost in Dansby.
I really have no concrete expectations of Kolb. I could see him coming in here and leading us to 10 wins and I could see him coming in here and (despite showing signs of being our QBOF) leading us to 5 or 6 wins. We have so many question marks on both sides of the ball that I just don't know where to put the bar for this guy. Sure, we need a solid QB but how do you hold that position accountable for victories when we so clearly need an improved O-line, a consistent running game and something resembling a pass rush just to be competitive.
Steve
I don't think defensive performance in the preseason means anything. In fact, I'm not sure that preseason anything means much. #7 apparently "sucked" in that game, but he went 6/7 for 49 yards (that's 7.0 YPA for "Captain Checkdown") after getting decleated on his first pass attempt.
Going into this year, the area of biggest defensive concern--pass rush--is getting help from a healthy O'Brien Schofield and Sam Acho.
It's not like I'm thinking this is a playoff roster. 7 wins last season would've been good. Isn't having a QB worth $65 million and a Pro Bowl cornerback worth 1 win? We won 5 games with one of the worst offenses AND defenses in the NFL last year.
And add in that we did get lucky a couple of games, Whiz has a lot to change up this year too. Pass,pass,and then shotgun handoff aint going down this year. I still don't think DRC is going anywhere, probably just because I want to see him here with Horton and turn the page with our secondary. If we get Kolb or whoever, playcall is still going to be huge because we aint getting Warner.
We got lucky in a couple of wins, and a couple of losses. A league-average QB probably allows you to be competitive in both Seattle games, at least one of the San Francisco games, maybe wins the home game versus St. Louis, and probably wins the Tampa Bay game.
You have to get back to being competitive before you can worry about making the playoffs. Every team wins games here and there.
I keep hearing that we'd be screwing ourselves out of the Luck sweepsteaks if we trade a first for Kolb, and while I'm not advocating that we do, what leads ya'll to think that we'll be in the position for the number 1 pick next year? Consider this. With the god awful situation we had at QB this past year and as bad as this team played we ended up with 5 wins and the number 5 pick in the draft.
I don't think we'll be in contention for the #1 pick next year even if we start John Skelton and Trent Edwards for 8 games apiece. But trading for Kolb (and his resultant contract) closes the opportunity to draft a QB in the first round even if we somehow manage to hold on to that pick in a trade.
Andrew Luck isn't the only good QB that will be drafted in the top half of the 2012 NFL Draft. In next year's draft, guys like Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, and Jake Locker would likely not even be Top 20 picks, much less Top 10 guys.
That's one reason that it makes so much sense to develop Skelton for another year and start a middle-term veteran like Hasselback for 1/3 of the money you're going to pay Kolb. Then if Skelton doesn't progress during the year you can draft one of these guys.
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