Per MJ

[Chopper0080]

Who are the traditional NTs who do get off blocks and make plays?

As for the historical example, I think that this team's failure to identify a free agent or draft solution at NT is a historical outlier. This team's actually done all right at ILBs/OLBs (Washington, Dansby, Lenon and Foote for value, Abraham and Berry for production and value--as well as Okeafor), DBs (Peterson and Rodgers-Cromartie were studs, as was Adrian Wilson and Rolle and Rhodes), even running backs have guys who weren't stars but were solid contributors in Hightower, Emmitt Smith, James, etc.

I'd say that this team has a history of ineptitude at finding solutions to NT comperable only to their ineptitude at recruiting or drafting offensive guards.

The best ones do, but I'm sure I am projecting Casey Hampton, Wilfork, Poe, and Ngata playing outside of their positons.

Also, let's not forget that the Cardinals transitioned to a 3-4 in 2007, and drafted Dan Williams in 2010. So, they have had 3 seasons in a 3-4 without him. Alan Branch was drafted in 2007, but Gabe Watson was a carry over from the 2006 draft. Bryan Robinson was signed because of Branch's poor play.

Also, to use your arguement, there is no correlation between Dan Williams being on the team and his elevating the rush defense. Since he was drafted in 2010, here is Dan Williams games played vs team rush defense in terms of rush yards per game.

2010 - 15 games played - ranked 30th
2011 - 10 games played - ranked 21st
2012 - 15 games played - ranked 28th
2013 - 14 games played - ranked 1st
2014 - 16 games played - ranked 13th

More of an arguement can be made that the addition of Matt Shaughnessy in2013 or Todd Bowles promotion to the defensive coordinator position is what changed our rush defense from bottom 15 to top 15.

 

[WildBB]

This is the same team that paid Stewart Bradley 20+mill .......... and they balk at paying Dan 3mill.

Sorry, I just hadn't had a good Stewart Bradley rip in a couple years. I feel much better now .

True dat!

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm going to stoke the flames a bit more.

Who would you rather have if you had to make a choice? Dockett or Williams?

I'll take Williams every day of the week. One player is in his prime and the other is coming off a blown knee and the tail end of his career.

Easily Williams.

 

[Chopper0080]

Easily Williams.

Dockett.

 

[cardpa]

The best ones do, but I'm sure I am projecting Casey Hampton, Wilfork, Poe, and Ngata playing outside of their positons.

Also, let's not forget that the Cardinals transitioned to a 3-4 in 2007, and drafted Dan Williams in 2010. So, they have had 3 seasons in a 3-4 without him. Alan Branch was drafted in 2007, but Gabe Watson was a carry over from the 2006 draft. Bryan Robinson was signed because of Branch's poor play.

Also, to use your arguement, there is no correlation between Dan Williams being on the team and his elevating the rush defense. Since he was drafted in 2010, here is Dan Williams games played vs team rush defense in terms of rush yards per game.

2010 - 15 games played - ranked 30th
2011 - 10 games played - ranked 21st
2012 - 15 games played - ranked 28th
2013 - 14 games played - ranked 1st
2014 - 16 games played - ranked 13th

More of an arguement can be made that the addition of Matt Shaughnessy in2013 or Todd Bowles promotion to the defensive coordinator position is what changed our rush defense from bottom 15 to top 15.

I think you make a very valid argument here Chopper. The last 2 years may have been more of the changes Bowles made to the defense and the surrounding cast of players than the Dumpster. I have always seen him as a middle of the road NT. Not the worse and not near the top either. I think you can replace Dumpster with a comparable NT and not pay what he is looking for. I agree with the team letting him test the FA market. He may find that it isn't as lucrative as he expects it to be and if he does land a good deal then good for him, some one was willing to pay him more than his worth.

 

[cardncubfan]

Dockett.

+1

 

[kerouac9]

The best ones do, but I'm sure I am projecting Casey Hampton, Wilfork, Poe, and Ngata playing outside of their positons.

Also, let's not forget that the Cardinals transitioned to a 3-4 in 2007, and drafted Dan Williams in 2010. So, they have had 3 seasons in a 3-4 without him. Alan Branch was drafted in 2007, but Gabe Watson was a carry over from the 2006 draft. Bryan Robinson was signed because of Branch's poor play.

Also, to use your arguement, there is no correlation between Dan Williams being on the team and his elevating the rush defense. Since he was drafted in 2010, here is Dan Williams games played vs team rush defense in terms of rush yards per game.

2010 - 15 games played - ranked 30th
2011 - 10 games played - ranked 21st
2012 - 15 games played - ranked 28th
2013 - 14 games played - ranked 1st
2014 - 16 games played - ranked 13th

More of an arguement can be made that the addition of Matt Shaughnessy in2013 or Todd Bowles promotion to the defensive coordinator position is what changed our rush defense from bottom 15 to top 15.

I don't think it makes any sense whatsoever to lay the credit or the blame for the entire rush defense's success or failure on the back of any single player on the unit. That's silly.

What I would point to is that Calais Campbell gives Dan Williams a ton of credit for helping him maximize his ability by taking on a ton of trash.

 

[BigRedRage]

Docketts FT leadership + skills on field are worth more than Williams 32% snaps IMO.

 

[Chopper0080]

I don't think it makes any sense whatsoever to lay the credit or the blame for the entire rush defense's success or failure on the back of any single player on the unit. That's silly.

What I would point to is that Calais Campbell gives Dan Williams a ton of credit for helping him maximize his ability by taking on a ton of trash.

I think that is a reasonable statement, but the entire reason that Dan Williams is considered an asset to this team is that he is the run stuffer that this defense needs. My point is that there is nothing that supports that reasoning.

You said "$2M for a quality nose tackle is a slap in the face". My point is there is nothing that supports Dan Williams being anymore than an average NT. Also, he plays less than 40% of defensive snaps. So if his presence on our defense does not relate to a better run defense in yards per game, and he doesn't play the majority of snaps, what makes him more than average?

Nothing that I can see. In fact, in 2013 when we ranked #1 vs the run, he played barely 33% of snaps.

and I have never heard that quote from Calais. I will take your word for it, but Calais saying a NT takes up blockers is like saying an engine runs when it is turned on. If it didn't, it wouldn't be very useful.

 

[kerouac9]

First, I think that saying you can have either Darnell Dockett or Dan Williams is a completely false equivalence. If anything, a fair extension for Darnell Dockett makes it MORE likely that Williams stays with the team.

I think that is a reasonable statement, but the entire reason that Dan Williams is considered an asset to this team is that he is the run stuffer that this defense needs. My point is that there is nothing that supports that reasoning.

You said "$2M for a quality nose tackle is a slap in the face". My point is there is nothing that supports Dan Williams being anymore than an average NT. Also, he plays less than 40% of defensive snaps. So if his presence on our defense does not relate to a better run defense in yards per game, and he doesn't play the majority of snaps, what makes him more than average?

Nothing that I can see. In fact, in 2013 when we ranked #1 vs the run, he played barely 33% of snaps.

and I have never heard that quote from Calais. I will take your word for it, but Calais saying a NT takes up blockers is like saying an engine runs when it is turned on. If it didn't, it wouldn't be very useful.

Nothing except watching the tape. Oh, and that according to Football Outsiders, the Cards' Run D was 4th in the NFL against runs between the tackles. I'm sure that's because of Larry Foote and Kevin Minter, though. in 2013 the Cards were 1st against the runs up the middle.

As for the last two years being better than the preceding two? I'd chalk that up--in part--to a developing player who's figuring out how to keep his body in shape and to play the game at an NFL level.

"Quality" and "Average" are more or less synonymous for me. I think he's probably a little above average as a traditional NT, but he's asking for essentially an average salary, which I think is fair. I'd rather have 4 years of assured Dan Williams than one year of Fua or Ryan Pickett (whom I've loved for a long time) and then roll the dice again the next year and the year after that.

 

[BigRedRage]

First, I think that saying you can have either Darnell Dockett or Dan Williams is a completely false equivalence. If anything, a fair extension for Darnell Dockett makes it MORE likely that Williams stays with the team.

i think it was just for arguments sake, who would you rather.

 

[kerouac9]

i think it was just for arguments sake, who would you rather.

Would you rather have Carson Palmer or Larry Fitzgerald? What's the point of asking the question?

 

[BigRedRage]

Would you rather have Carson Palmer or Larry Fitzgerald? What's the point of asking the question?

fun discussion. conversation.

You know, message board stuff.

I'd rather Palmer, Fitz doesnt do us any good if our QBs suck.

you never played whod you rather and names off two hot girls? or two hideous ones? always a fun time.

 

[Chopper0080]

First, I think that saying you can have either Darnell Dockett or Dan Williams is a completely false equivalence. If anything, a fair extension for Darnell Dockett makes it MORE likely that Williams stays with the team.



Nothing except watching the tape. Oh, and that according to Football Outsiders, the Cards' Run D was 4th in the NFL against runs between the tackles. I'm sure that's because of Larry Foote and Kevin Minter, though. in 2013 the Cards were 1st against the runs up the middle.

As for the last two years being better than the preceding two? I'd chalk that up--in part--to a developing player who's figuring out how to keep his body in shape and to play the game at an NFL level.

"Quality" and "Average" are more or less synonymous for me. I think he's probably a little above average as a traditional NT, but he's asking for essentially an average salary, which I think is fair. I'd rather have 4 years of assured Dan Williams than one year of Fua or Ryan Pickett (whom I've loved for a long time) and then roll the dice again the next year and the year after that.

So, your assertion is that Dan Williams plays an average amount of snaps for his position (35%-40%), and the average salary for that position is around $3.5 mil. So due to that, some promising metrics, and the reasoning that his development is PART of the reason for our improvement vs the run, he deserves that positional average salary of $3.5 mil?

I just want to make sure that I am clear on your reasoning.

 

[Jetstream Green]

Big contract, from out of nowhere... could something strange like a guy as Suh coming onboard even with our cap saying no

 

[Mitch]

I think a contract with incentives (% snaps, production) could be the answer for Dan Williams. But, Williams and his agent know there's a good market for him in FA and so they will most likely see what comes their way. The sticking point is going to be the amount of guaranteed money he gets.

 

[Bodha]

Dan is worth the money


and whos MJ?

 

[BigRedRage]

Dan is worth the money


and whos MJ?

Mike Jurecki.

 

[kerouac9]

So, your assertion is that Dan Williams plays an average amount of snaps for his position (35%-40%), and the average salary for that position is around $3.5 mil. So due to that, some promising metrics, and the reasoning that his development is PART of the reason for our improvement vs the run, he deserves that positional average salary of $3.5 mil?

I just want to make sure that I am clear on your reasoning.

That's just part of it. I'd say my value in this debate is maintaining the proven quality of our defense--the run defense. The criterion is keeping consistency in the absence of a clear upgrade (the Sendlein Defense).

So, here are my contentions:

1) If Williams is looking for $3.5M per season, that's not outside the spectrum of the market value of a traditional nose tackle.
2) Williams is a proven and improving player at a position of rare quality (Parcell's "planet player" theory).
3) Snap percentage is a red herring argument--his contributions are consistent with pure nose tackles in the NFL.
4) There's no apparent veteran with the combination of youth and experience to recruit in free agency.
5) There's no "sure thing" at the position in the draft.
6) There's no opportunity cost to re-signing Dan Williams before free agency opens (e.g., there's no pass rusher that $1M or $1.5M is going to make the difference in us signing.
7) If you wait until after free agency starts, you're likely going to lose Dan Williams to someone else (the Karlos Dansby Corollary).

 

[HeavyB3]

I'd be inclined to pay him. I know that he only plays 40ish percent of the snaps, but I doubt he's in much on obvious pass downs. Our run defense has improved dramatically. I'm not sure how much of that was Dan, but certainly a change in coaching helped the run defense overall.

 

[Mitch]

Dan is worth the money


and whos MJ?

These are the type of "difficult decisions" Steve Keim is alluding to. Mike Disner has Dan Williams' market value figured out to the penny---and the Cardinals will offer him a contract at the salary they think is commensurate with Williams' value. They are not going to overpay for him.

Disner by now also has market figures on other FA NTs like Pat Sims---whom they will likely offer asap once FA starts. It then becomes first come first serve as to which FA agrees with the Cardinals' price. That's the leverage the Cardinals have been using with FAs since Disner arrived.

That said, if Alameda Ta'amu returns to his 2013 form, there wasn't a drop-off at NT when he was in the game. If BA&SK&JB are high on Ta'amu returning to form, then they could simply target a backup NT in the draft. Plus, Frostee Rucker's versatility is a factor here because he can take some snaps in the NT rotation if need be.

 

[Chopper0080]

That's just part of it. I'd say my value in this debate is maintaining the proven quality of our defense--the run defense. The criterion is keeping consistency in the absence of a clear upgrade (the Sendlein Defense).

So, here are my contentions:

1) If Williams is looking for $3.5M per season, that's not outside the spectrum of the market value of a traditional nose tackle.
2) Williams is a proven and improving player at a position of rare quality (Parcell's "planet player" theory).
3) Snap percentage is a red herring argument--his contributions are consistent with pure nose tackles in the NFL.
4) There's no apparent veteran with the combination of youth and experience to recruit in free agency.
5) There's no "sure thing" at the position in the draft.
6) There's no opportunity cost to re-signing Dan Williams before free agency opens (e.g., there's no pass rusher that $1M or $1.5M is going to make the difference in us signing.
7) If you wait until after free agency starts, you're likely going to lose Dan Williams to someone else (the Karlos Dansby Corollary).

So here is the free agent market for NTs.

Ahtybe Rubin
Terrance Knighton
Dan Williams
Ryan Pickett
Sione Fua

I would go ahead and assert that the top three players are better options than the bottom two.

I would agree that it is normally preferred to go with what you know rather than what you don't.

Market cost looks like $3.5 is a reasonable price for an experienced vet.

If we aren't willing to pay it, I believe it is a clear sign there are other issues or we want something different from our NT.

Personally, I would look to draft a guy with a mid round pick, and then sign a vet for camp just in case if Dan wouldn't take a 2.5 mil deal. But, that is just me, and could leave a hole in the middle of our defense.

 

[TJ]

Here's my prediction:

4 years $12 mil 8 guaranteed

Not from Arizona.

 

[Krangodnzr]

That's just part of it. I'd say my value in this debate is maintaining the proven quality of our defense--the run defense. The criterion is keeping consistency in the absence of a clear upgrade (the Sendlein Defense).

So, here are my contentions:

1) If Williams is looking for $3.5M per season, that's not outside the spectrum of the market value of a traditional nose tackle.
2) Williams is a proven and improving player at a position of rare quality (Parcell's "planet player" theory).
3) Snap percentage is a red herring argument--his contributions are consistent with pure nose tackles in the NFL.
4) There's no apparent veteran with the combination of youth and experience to recruit in free agency.
5) There's no "sure thing" at the position in the draft.
6) There's no opportunity cost to re-signing Dan Williams before free agency opens (e.g., there's no pass rusher that $1M or $1.5M is going to make the difference in us signing.
7) If you wait until after free agency starts, you're likely going to lose Dan Williams to someone else (the Karlos Dansby Corollary).

+1

I think $3.5 mil is not unreasonable, and Kerouac nailed it here. Having a hole at NT is not acceptable, especially in light of the transition/lack of good players at ILB.

Signing a veteran who may or may not replace him and hedging your bet with a midround rookie is the type of disaster we've seen this team go through in the past. It's kind of like letting a really good ILB walk, when your other really good ILB might be suspended and all you have is an unproven 2nd year player and an 80 year old vet.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Here's my prediction:

4 years $12 mil 8 guaranteed

Not from Arizona.

I doubt anyone gives him 8 guaranteed. More likely 6.