Pick Watch 2018

[CardsSunsDbacks]

If the Suns get three first-rounders, they should keep all of them. If they don't have multiple players they like at #16, they haven't done their homework. So take two of them and hope that one pans out.

They are trying to take a step forward next year and adding 3 rookies to an already very young roster kind of thwarts that idea. Also if they use them to draft players it gives them less capitol to make trades and thus makes it harder for the team to get more veterans on the roster to increase on court productivity. Do you seriously want to see yet another year of young guys running around not knowing what they are doing and being dead last in both offense and defense? I know I don't.

 

[pokerface]

I do not expect the Suns to keep all their draft picks. They can be used to trade for a player or for a future first rounder.

This is a good draft so I do not expect any problems trading them unlike the 2014 NBA Draft where their value was diminished.

Yeah I don't expect them to keep all the picks either. I just hope we get good value in return.

 

[elindholm]

They are trying to take a step forward next year and adding 3 rookies to an already very young roster kind of thwarts that idea. Also if they use them to draft players it gives them less capitol to make trades and thus makes it harder for the team to get more veterans on the roster to increase on court productivity. Do you seriously want to see yet another year of young guys running around not knowing what they are doing and being dead last in both offense and defense? I know I don't.

Whether or not the Suns have an extra player taken at #17 should have no impact on their free agency pursuits, and nearly no impact on who gets playing time. Most first-round picks aren't really ready. Lottery picks play because their teams are bad enough that there isn't much competition. If the Suns get three players in the first round who legitimately belong in the rotation, that would be a miracle -- and frankly a possibility so remote that it's not worth worrying about.

Of course, there's no way to know whether it's the guy taken at #16 or the one taken at #17 who is destined for competence. That's why you take both and let them sort it out.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Ideally, those picks can return real value, but if not then there are far worse things than using them. Take Mitchell Robinson, a player who could easily bust but who also has tremendous upside. Maybe you get lucky. Worst case scenario, you develop him in the g-league. No harm there.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Whether or not the Suns have an extra player taken at #17 should have no impact on their free agency pursuits, and nearly no impact on who gets playing time. Most first-round picks aren't really ready. Lottery picks play because their teams are bad enough that there isn't much competition. If the Suns get three players in the first round who legitimately belong in the rotation, that would be a miracle -- and frankly a possibility so remote that it's not worth worrying about.

Of course, there's no way to know whether it's the guy taken at #16 or the one taken at #17 who is destined for competence. That's why you take both and let them sort it out.

My point is that if you can trade one or both of those picks for some proven talent than why wouldn't you? As opposed to just spending them on a couple rookies that likely won't get any playing time. Obviously if we can't get anything of real value in return than just use the picks, but I would definitely try to trade them for someone established first.

 

[elindholm]

My point is that if you can trade one or both of those picks for some proven talent than why wouldn't you?

Sure, okay. We probably just disagree on what kind of "proven talent" is likely to be available in a trade for that kind of pick. My guess is, very little.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

WHAt time is the coin flip?

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

WHAt time is the coin flip?

Late afternoon is all I have seen

 

[Mainstreet]

Ideally, those picks can return real value, but if not then there are far worse things than using them. Take Mitchell Robinson, a player who could easily bust but who also has tremendous upside. Maybe you get lucky. Worst case scenario, you develop him in the g-league. No harm there.

I agree. Also the 31st pick should yield a good player.

Although I do not expect the Suns to keep all their picks because of trades, keeping them is not the worse case scenario. The Suns need talent.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

WHAt time is the coin flip?

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[CardsSunsDbacks]

Sure, okay. We probably just disagree on what kind of "proven talent" is likely to be available in a trade for that kind of pick. My guess is, very little.

I’m not suggesting trading them on their own, but as part of a package for a solid proven bet or in a bigger package for a star player.

They could also be packaged to maybe jump up in the draft if someone we like falls to around 10 or so.

 

[GatorAZ]

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Imagine how nervous Dallas and Atlanta are...

 

[JCSunsfan]

List of #16 and #17 picks in the last 10 years:

Sean Williams, Nick Young, Roy Hibbert, Marreese Speights, Jrue Holiday, James Johnson, Kevin Seraphin, Luke Babbitt, Iman Shumpert, Nikola Vucevic, Tyler Zeller, Royce White, Dennis Schroder, Lucas Nogueira, James Young, Jusuf Nurkic, Rashad Vaughn, Terry Rozier, Wade Baldwin, Guerschon Yabusele, D.J. Wilson, Justin Patton

 

[elindholm]

List of #16 and #17 picks in the last 10 years:

Sean Williams, Nick Young, Roy Hibbert, Marreese Speights, Jrue Holiday, James Johnson, Kevin Seraphin, Luke Babbitt, Iman Shumpert, Nikola Vucevic, Tyler Zeller, Royce White, Dennis Schroder, Lucas Nogueira, James Young, Jusuf Nurkic, Rashad Vaughn, Terry Rozier, Wade Baldwin, Guerschon Yabusele, D.J. Wilson, Justin Patton

Thanks for compiling that. My takeaway is that the Suns may wind up with a serviceable player in that area if the draft, but if they can get two cracks at it, their chances will be better.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Thanks for compiling that. My takeaway is that the Suns may wind up with a serviceable player in that area if the draft, but if they can get two cracks at it, their chances will be better.

I would love to take credit, but I copied it from a poster on a Milwaukee board. They are pretty much convinced they don't want the pick this year. They would much rather lose a mid first rounder than have the potential of a better pick later.

 

[elindholm]

I would love to take credit, but I copied it from a poster on a Milwaukee board. They are pretty much convinced they don't want the pick this year. They would much rather lose a mid first rounder than have the potential of a better pick later.

I can't keep track of the insanely complicated protection on that pick, but isn't it more likely to go lower, not higher, if it isn't conveyed now?

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I can't keep track of the insanely complicated protection on that pick, but isn't it more likely to go lower, not higher, if it isn't conveyed now?

We would get it at 4-16 next year, 8-30 in 2020 and unprotected in 2021. Most likely we would simply get it in the 20s in 2020 since there is no upper protection on it. However, the fear for Bucks fans and hope for Suns fans is that if we didn't get the pick this year is that something will happen that causes the Bucks to under perform next year and we then get it when it becomes a top 10 pick or so. Or it conveys in 2021 while it is unprotected and ends up being like the #1 pick or something like that.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

I can't keep track of the insanely complicated protection on that pick, but isn't it more likely to go lower, not higher, if it isn't conveyed now?

Next year, it can't go lower than 16 again. It has to be from 4-16.

In 2021 it would be unprotected.

The problem is 2020, when it is top 7 protected. Most likely scenario, it conveys in 2020 and is a mid-to-late pick.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

We would get it at 4-16 next year, 8-30 in 2020 and unprotected in 2021. Most likely we would simply get it in the 20s in 2020 since there is no upper protection on it. However, the fear for Bucks fans and hope for Suns fans is that if we didn't get the pick this year is that something will happen that causes the Bucks to under perform next year and we then get it when it becomes a top 10 pick or so. Or it conveys in 2021 while it is unprotected and ends up being like the #1 pick or something like that.

I guess the scenario where it pays off is if the Bucks are just okay next year, maybe the 6th seed in the East, and then they lose a frustrated Greek Freak, bottom out with a top 7 pick, and then continue to be awful in 2021 when the pick is unprotected.

It looks like we both came to the same conclusion though that it's probably a pick in the 20s two years from now. GMs will likely do the same, which means the trade value this offseason is better if the pick conveys.

 

[elindholm]

It looks like we both came to the same conclusion though that it's probably a pick in the 20s two years from now. GMs will likely do the same, which means the trade value this offseason is better if the pick conveys.

Thanks to both of you for the refresher. This sounds familiar. I remember thinking that the Suns would be better off getting it now, since its value seemed (probably) destined to depreciate.

Barring an injury to Antetokounmpo, it's hard to imagine the Bucks missing the playoffs in either of the next two years. Behind him, they have a solid (if unspectacular) core, and by far their most likely course of action is to figure out how far their young star can take them before they do anything drastic.

 

[SunsFanFirst]

Are the tiebreakers only airing on nbatv?

 

[JCSunsfan]

nvm. Others said it already.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Thanks to both of you for the refresher. This sounds familiar. I remember thinking that the Suns would be better off getting it now, since its value seemed (probably) destined to depreciate.

Barring an injury to Antetokounmpo, it's hard to imagine the Bucks missing the playoffs in either of the next two years. Behind him, they have a solid (if unspectacular) core, and by far their most likely course of action is to figure out how far their young star can take them before they do anything drastic.

But they don't have a coach, they have a mgmt that has a very poor record of drafting. Giannis' body and style of play do seem to indicate injuries are a possibility.

 

[Mainstreet]

So the Suns do not get the Bucks pick this season.

scott bordow‏Verified account@sbordow


Bucks lose tiebreaker. Milwaukee pick will convey to next year, protected 1-3, 17-30. Suns now draft 16, 31, 59 and whatever ping-pong balls do for top pick

2:42 PM - 13 Apr 2018

 

[JCSunsfan]

crap.