Point guard speculation article - Russell hope

[hcsilla]

Last time Rubio signed a new contract, it was 55 mil./4 year in MIN.

Since the cap increased significantly since then, I doubt that he will settle down for less than 60 mil./4 year.

 

[1Sun]

And let us not forget that Booker is only 35.4% for his career, and was 32.6% last year.

His downturn in shooting last year is a direct product of Booker playing the point in my opinion. I believe Booker is far superior playing off the ball than he is playing the point.

 

[Hoop Head]

Last time Rubio signed a new contract, it was 55 mil./4 year in MIN.

Since the cap increased significantly since then, I doubt that he will settle down for less than 60 mil./4 year.

Bledsoe signed a new deal with Milwaukee that was almost identical to the one he signed in Phoenix. The increase in the cap doesn't play as much of a role with midlevel players like Rubio or Bledsoe. It makes the max more for some but part of why Rubio got a big deal before was based on potential, he didn't change much from who he was 5 years ago so he won't be getting a significant raise, if he gets a raise at all.

 

[sinsay]

What is the trade value of Brunson the rookie PG from mavs?

Would Jackson and first-round protected pick in 2021 be enough

 

[Phrazbit]

Last time Rubio signed a new contract, it was 55 mil./4 year in MIN.

Since the cap increased significantly since then, I doubt that he will settle down for less than 60 mil./4 year.

Last time Rubio signed a new contract he was still considered a potential rising star. That ain't the case anymore.

I bet he signs somewhere for around 3 years, 30-36 million.

 

[Hoop Head]

What is the trade value of Brunson the rookie PG from mavs?

Would Jackson and first-round protected pick in 2021 be enough

That is an overpay, IMO. I like Brunson quite a bit but if they wouldn't do a swap of Jackson for Brunson I would not include a pick with him. I think a straight trade should be fair, considering Dallas has the cap space to make up for the difference in salary. Including anything more than a future 2nd round pick would be too much. I would only include a 2nd if I had to, not something I think would need to be included.

If Jackson didn't have his recent run in with the law I would think they'd be all over it even with the salary difference but Jackson's value is at an all time low. Even being at an all time low, I would like Monty to try and see what he can do before giving up and that's why I wouldn't include anything other than cash to help offset the salary difference.

 

[hcsilla]

Bledsoe signed a new deal with Milwaukee that was almost identical to the one he signed in Phoenix. The increase in the cap doesn't play as much of a role with midlevel players like Rubio or Bledsoe. It makes the max more for some but part of why Rubio got a big deal before was based on potential, he didn't change much from who he was 5 years ago so he won't be getting a significant raise, if he gets a raise at all.

That's completely wrong.

Rubio was not a rising star in 2014. He was already an established player, one of the best players in Europe when he joined to the NBA.

His 3rd season (when he signed his new contract in MIN) was almost identical with his rookie season.

On the contrary Bledsoe was considered as a rising star after his breakout-season in Phoenix when he extended his contract with the Suns.

He came back to earth in Milwaukee where everbody could see what caliber of player he is. If he was now the Eric Bledsoe who he was after the season 2013/14, he probably would have got a significantly bigger contract.

 

[hcsilla]

Last time Rubio signed a new contract he was still considered a potential rising star.

No, he was not, see above why.

I bet he signs somewhere for around 3 years, 30-36 million.

That's Jerami Grant's and Avery Bradley's range.
Despite his obvious flaws Rubio is worth more, IMO.

 

[Phrazbit]

That's completely wrong.

Rubio was not a rising star in 2014. He was already an established player, one of the best players in Europe when he joined to the NBA.

His 3rd season (when he signed his new contract in MIN) was almost identical with his rookie season.

On the contrary Bledsoe was considered as a rising star after his breakout-season in Phoenix when he extended his contract with the Suns.

He came back to earth in Milwaukee where everbody could see what caliber of player he is. If he was now the Eric Bledsoe who he was after the season 2013/14, he probably would have got a significantly bigger contract.

No, he was not, see above why.




That's Jerami Grant's and Avery Bradley's range.
Despite his obvious flaws Rubio is worth more, IMO.

Bledsoe was just on the All NBA Defensive 1st Team. He struggled in the playoffs but if he hadn't signed an extension early with Milwaukee he'd almost certainly be getting even more as a free agent.

As for Rubio, yes, he was still viewed as a solid young player with a lot of room to grow when he signed his 1st extension. Now he is nearly 10 years in the league and I doubt anyone expects improvement. He is not going to get 4 years 60 million.

IMO you're vastly over estimating the value of these guys. I think Bradley is going to have a long wait on the market, he was flat out terrible last season, at best he's going to get like... 10 million over 2 years, with the 2nd season being a club option.

EDIT: Did you by chance intend to say Patrick Beverly? That would make more sense, but still... no, he's not worth that either. I think Beverly is going to sign an MLE deal with a contender. He is a defensive specialist/cheap shot artist. No one is going to view him as an investment, maybe he could get an Ariza style 1 year overpay (from us perhaps), he isn't getting 30 mil.

 

[hcsilla]

Bledsoe was just on the All NBA Defensive 1st Team. He struggled in the playoffs but if he hadn't signed an extension early with Milwaukee he'd almost certainly be getting even more as a free agent.

I disagree.

As for Rubio, yes, he was still viewed as a solid young player with a lot of room to grow when he signed his 1st extension.

Again, Rubio was not your typical rookie, he spent SIX seasons as a professional basketball player, at very least in the last two as one of the best (if not the best) european players before enteting into the NBA.

Then he did put up basically THREE identical seasons in the NBA, without showing any significant improvement. What lot of room to grow you think did he had that time entering in his 10th season as a pro?

IMO you're vastly over estimating the value of these guys. I think Bradley is going to have a long wait on the market, he was flat out terrible last season, at best he's going to get like... 10 million over 2 years, with the 2nd season being a club option.

Just FYI, I wrote that this is Bradley's and Grant's price range, becasue they already did get these deals last summer.

 

[Phrazbit]

I disagree.




Again, Rubio was not your typical rookie, he spent SIX seasons as a professional basketball player, at very least in the last two as one of the best (if not the best) european players before enteting into the NBA.

Then he did put up basically THREE identical seasons in the NBA, without showing any significant improvement. What lot of room to grow you think did he had that time entering in his 10th season as a pro?

He was 23 years old! Yes, Rubio was absolutely viewed as having untapped potential! And since then his passing has slipped, his defensive metrics have slipped, he got 5 years older and he was dumped for a late 1st round pick and is coming off a season where he trended south. The guy is not getting a 60 million dollar contract.

Fringe starters are not getting 4 year deals unless they're viewed as having potential. Rubio, at this point, is a fringe starter and no one thinks he is going to improve.

 

[Phrazbit]

BTW, at the right price, I wouldn't mind Rubio, but 60 million is more than double the right price. At this point he is a stop gap.

 

[hcsilla]

He was 23 years old! Yes, Rubio was absolutely viewed as having untapped potential!

No, he was absolutely not, but this is my last post regarding this issue, since you simply keep neglecting facts that I list.

 

[Phrazbit]

No, he was absolutely not, but this is my last post regarding this issue, since you simply keep neglecting facts that I list.

Not sure what I am ignoring... he's gotten worse and gotten older, he's not viewed as the same player...

But fine, when Rubio signs for like... half of what you think he will we can revisit this and reexamine who is ignoring "facts".

 

[hcsilla]

EDIT: Did you by chance intend to say Patrick Beverly? That would make more sense, but still... no, he's not worth that either. I think Beverly is going to sign an MLE deal with a contender. He is a defensive specialist/cheap shot artist. No one is going to view him as an investment, maybe he could get an Ariza style 1 year overpay (from us perhaps), he isn't getting 30 mil.

No, I did not think of Beverley, it was intentionally Bradley.

If Beverley gets an MLE-deal (which is very much possible), I think that Rubio can expect significantly more since he is a superior player to Beverley, especially for a team like the Suns.

 

[hcsilla]

Not sure what I am ignoring...

The fact that Rubio entering his 10th season as a professional player (who has shown almost zero improvement in his 3 NBA seasons) could not be viewed as someone with untapping potential.

 

[hcsilla]

But fine, when Rubio signs for like... half of what you think he will we can revisit this.

Sure, I will happily do it especially that in this case the Suns will have a starting point guard on a bargain-deal. And I never was a big Rubio-fan.

 

[Phrazbit]

No, I did not think of Beverley, it was intentionally Bradley.

If Beverley gets an MLE-deal (which is very much possible), I think that Rubio can expect significantly more since he is a superior player to Beverley, especially for a team like the Suns.

I agree that Rubio is a better fit for us, but I think the contenders that will pursue Beverly would rather him than Rubio. Rubio is a better passer, Beverly is the better all-around player... but he is older and has a scary injury history.

The fact that Rubio entering his 10th season as a professional player (who has shown almost zero improvement in his 3 NBA seasons) could not be viewed as someone with untapping potential.

He had been a pro for nearly a decade, that part is a fact, him not being viewed as having more potential is entirely subjective and ignores that he was only 23 years old and almost all that time as a "pro" he was a teenager.

Honestly, I find the idea that Rubio is viewed having similar value now to what he did at 23 as... bonkers.

Sure, I will happily do it especially that in this case the Suns will have a starting point guard on a bargain-deal. And I never was a big Rubio-fan.

Well, don't mistake me as claiming the Suns are going to be the ones to sign him. That is his price range where ever he goes, no one is giving him 60 mil.

 

[hcsilla]

Honestly, I find the idea that Rubio is viewed having similar value now to what he did at 23 as... bonkers.

He was 24, when he signed his 1st extension.

Bonkers or not, but he was still the same player at age of 24 as he was at age 21. He still is.

Since the cap raised by 70% from 63 mil. to 109 mil. between 2014 and 2019, expecting a small increase in his next contract is absolutely realistic.

 

[Phrazbit]

He was 24, when he signed his 1st extension.

Bonkers or not, but he was still the same player at age of 24 as he was at age 21. He still is.

Since the cap raised by 70% from 63 mil. to 109 mil. between 2014 and 2019, expecting a small increase in his next contract is absolutely realistic.

When he signed his first extension he was viewed as a player who needed to improve to be worth that money, he was also viewed as a cornerstone of the Wolves franchise.

There is nothing of that left. He didn't improve, he got traded for next to nothing, he's now trending down and no one views him as a cornerstone player. Rubio hasn't been sitting in a vacuum sealed bag for 5 years, you're acting like the perception of him now is remotely what it was back then and seriously that, IMO, is ignoring a ton of facts.

Rubio is a fringe starter at this point, with zero expectation of growth. He will get a 2-3 year contract for 8-12 million per year. Maybe I can see that per year number going up if there is a team option involved, like I could see us offering him a 2 year 30 million dollar deal with the 2nd year being a team option. He certainly isn't getting 4 years.

 

[Hoop Head]

No, he was absolutely not, but this is my last post regarding this issue, since you simply keep neglecting facts that I list.

You aren't posting "facts". You are posting your opinion of how he was viewed 5 years ago vs today by GM's and executives around the league. I mentioned Bledsoe as a comparison and I think it's a fair comparison because they're similar in age and experience. Rubio will not get a contract larger than his last contract though, it won't happen. That would put him in the same pay range as Bledsoe is now and that isn't happening. He isn't worth that much. That is where the market is at for a player like him.

I doubt there are many who get more than Rubio was receiving and what you predict he'll get going forward. Players at that stage need to show improvement from who they were in their rookie deals. Rubio hasn't improved much at all compared to years 2 or 3 in the league and that's why he won't get a big deal to go elsewhere.

He might get a 4 year deal but if he does it won't be for more than $50 million overall. That is overpaying for what he brings to the table. He'll probably get a deal between $30-40 million for 4 years at most. There is no evidence he'll get more than that based on what others with similar experience and career trajectory receive.

 

[hcsilla]

You aren't posting "facts". You are posting your opinion of how he was viewed 5 years ago vs today by GM's and executives around the league.

No, I did post facts (he barely did improve in his 3 NBA seasons, he was entering his 10th season as a pro when he signed his 1st extension), and based on these facts it seems quite unlikely that NBA GM's saw a lot of potential in him back then.

I mentioned Bledsoe as a comparison and I think it's a fair comparison because they're similar in age and experience.

No, it is not, because they are not, and also their career was completely different. I can't believe that I need to explain this any further.

Rubio will not get a contract larger than his last contract though, it won't happen. That would put him in the same pay range as Bledsoe is now and that isn't happening.

Now, it would not since Bledsoe got 4year/70 mil, and I said 4year/60 mil. for Rubio.

I doubt there are many who get more than Rubio was receiving and what you predict he'll get going forward. Players at that stage need to show improvement from who they were in their rookie deals. Rubio hasn't improved much at all compared to years 2 or 3 in the league and that's why he won't get a big deal to go elsewhere.

Again, one last time, the cap went from 63 mil. in 2014 to 109 mil. in 2019. Do you understand this and its concequences?

 

[Hoop Head]

That's completely wrong.

Rubio was not a rising star in 2014. He was already an established player, one of the best players in Europe when he joined to the NBA.

His 3rd season (when he signed his new contract in MIN) was almost identical with his rookie season.

On the contrary Bledsoe was considered as a rising star after his breakout-season in Phoenix when he extended his contract with the Suns.

He came back to earth in Milwaukee where everbody could see what caliber of player he is. If he was now the Eric Bledsoe who he was after the season 2013/14, he probably would have got a significantly bigger contract.

It's not wrong, here is an article where he talks about his extension and Flip Saunders does as well as the GM in Minnesota. They even compare his deal to Bledsoe's back then. Source

"Ricky is only in his fourth season and because of his work ethic and determination, we are confident that he will continue to grow as a player and a team leader,'' team president and coach Flip Saunders said. "We look forward to many great years ahead of Ricky in a Timberwolves uniform."

Think what you want but it's not in line with reality.

Here is another....

The Timberwolves made a solid deal with their franchise point guard and they are confident that he will get things together. There is no denying the potential that he possesses, but they need him to realize it and work towards it. If he can improve his offense to averaging around 14-15 points per game, he will be a complete player and will be the legitimate franchise point guard that he needs to be.

Source

 

[hcsilla]

Rubio hasn't been sitting in a vacuum sealed bag for 5 years, you're acting like the perception of him now is remotely what it was back then

The cap went from 63 mil. in 2014 to 109 mil. in 2019.

 

[hcsilla]

It's not wrong, here is an article where he talks about his extension and Flip Saunders does as well as the GM in Minnesota. They even compare his deal to Bledsoe's back then.

They compared Rubio's yearly salary to Bledsoe's which is a clear sign that they were considered the same players regarding career trajectory, experience and potential, yes.

What else would have Saunders said?

Evan Massey probably has as much credit as anyone on this board, if he mentions Rubio's potential n his short review about Rubio's extension (where he says basically nothing) it hardly denies the pure facts that Rubio entered in this 10th season as a pro and he has shown next to zero improvement in his 3 NBA seasons.

You can google as many fan contributors as you wish and as many employees from the Wolves organization who says the usual diplomatic sentences about one of their players, it still does not change a bit the facts that I listed at least 5 times.