QB Preferences

[Mitch]

I once watched a good friend of mine, John "Troosh" Truccio, despite looking at an empty dance floor, go and ask woman after woman after woman to dance---and each time he got shot down I got more and more red in the face, while Trooosh remained steadfast and undeterred. Six women, seven, eight, nine---all said no. Some laughed at him and rolled their eyes. Finally, the 14th woman said yes. By then he was all the way over on the other side of the dance hall. Troosh danced with her all night and a year later, I had the honor of giving the toast at their wedding.

That night I learned that if you really want something, you'd better go after it and stay after it.

Thus, i would love to see the Cardinals be aggressive in their approach to acquiring their QB. Here are the scenarios that excite me the most:

Doors Number 1, 2 & 3.

1. Trade for Nick Foles. I love Foles' poise, accuracy and character. In those respects, He reminds me of Kurt Warner. i believe that the Cardinals and Foles are a perfect match. Foles is heading into his prime and would be our QB for the next 5 years. if the cost of the trade is too much, then i fully commit myself to door #2.

2. Trade up in the draft for Lamar Jackson. I don't want to risk waiting for him, I want to go and get him. I don't even care who the bridge QB would be, because I want to start Jackson asap. Jackson is humble, diligent, tough and ultra competitive. He is a big play waiting to happen on every snap. If we can't get someone to trade up with and Jackson is taken, then I open door #3.

3. Trade up in the draft for Josh Allen. Talent-wise, he's the stud QB in this draft. He's a turbo version of Carson Wentz. Yes, he's struggled at times with accuracy (while surrounded with mediocre talent), but I am convinced that because of his work ethic, hunger and eagerness to learn, he will make steady and marked improvements.

Fall Back Plan:

4. If we miss out on Foles, Jackson and Allen, draft BPA at #15, then trade back up into one of the last few picks in the first round or early second round picks (giving up the #47 & #97 picks, plus, if it's back into the 1st round, a 2019 3rd round pick) and draft Kyle Lauletta or Luke Falk. I like them both, but in different ways. i think Lauletta has the stronger arm and mobility and Falk has the edge in length and accuracy.

If the Price is Right:

1. Tyrod Taylor. I think his best football is ahead of him. Surround him with talent and he should thrive. Love the 51/18 TD/int ratio and his ability to dodge pressure.

2. Case Keenum. He is a winner. Tough, gritty competitor who tries to take what the defense gives him.

3. A.J. McCarron. Sounds like he has humbled and become hungry to prove he's a very good starting QB.

* if we sign any of these three to a multiple year deal, then if Jackson and Allen are off the board at #15, take BPA and draft a QB with one of the 3 picks on Day 2.

QBs To Avoid:

1. Kirk Cousins. Too much hype and money.

2. Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater. Too risky due to knee issues.

3. Sam Rosen. Immature and there are concussion concerns.

4. Baker Mayfield. Immature. Lack of size and speed will make things much more difficult for him in the NFL.

 

[WildBB]

I think the Cardinals might disagree with you on Mayfield. See him as super competitive, not immature. He's gritty and beaten the odds a number of times.

 

[DVontel]

Only top QBs I would draft: Mayfield, Rosen, or Jackson.

Still on the fence about: Darnold.

Would absolutely stay away from: Allen & Rudolph.

 

[juza76]

I dont know about foles
But if we can add solid pieces to our defense on free agency ( inside linebacker and cb2) I like the combo of taylor+jackson

In the other hand if fitz decide to return could be an indication of a more valid plan, probably done already

 

[Zeno]

Honest question, I see Lamar Jackson compared most favorably to Randall Cunningham, is that a fair comparison?

I like Baker Mayfield, I see tons of desire and leadership there my big concern is how he stacks up physically and mentally--how strong is his arm and can he read defenses?

I am leery of Allen, the below 60% completions scares me--hard to teach accuracy.

Is Lauletta really getting talked up as a potential late first/early second guy? I saw stuff listing him as 3rd-5th round material as he is considered a small school project. Falk on the other hand is likely a 2nd round guy just because of his measurables and what he did in 2015-2016.

 

[Mitch]

I think the Cardinals might disagree with you on Mayfield. See him as super competitive, not immature. He's gritty and beaten the odds a number of times.

I can't picture the Cardinals taking Mayfield...especially not with the coaching staff they just hired. I can see the upside---if he were a tad faster I'd like his chances more. In the NFL he's going to get boxed in and outquicked much more than he did in college.

 

[Mitch]

Honest question, I see Lamar Jackson compared most favorably to Randall Cunningham, is that a fair comparison?

I like Baker Mayfield, I see tons of desire and leadership there my big concern is how he stacks up physically and mentally--how strong is his arm and can he read defenses?

I am leery of Allen, the below 60% completions scares me--hard to teach accuracy.

Is Lauletta really getting talked up as a potential late first/early second guy? I saw stuff listing him as 3rd-5th round material as he is considered a small school project. Falk on the other hand is likely a 2nd round guy just because of his measurables and what he did in 2015-2016.

No because Randall Cunningham was a thinner, faster version of Cam Newton. I would liken Jackson to Michael Vick (a right handed version)---similar arm strength and explosive running ability. Jackson is a tougher finisher on his runs.

 

[don7031]

Lamar Jackson is going to fail the eye test during the physical measurement portion of the NFL combine. At 6'3" he's a natural 180 bulked up to a chiseled 205.

Additionally, the RG III, Bridgewater and Watson injuries are going to be a red flag on Jackson.

Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, and Allen are going in the top ten. Jackson is not.

 

[Vacard]

Lamar Jackson is going to fail the eye test during the physical measurement portion of the NFL combine. At 6'3" he's a natural 180 bulked up to a chiseled 205.

Additionally, the RG III, Bridgewater and Watson injuries are going to be a red flag on Jackson.

Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, and Allen are going in the top ten. Jackson is not.

Bridgewater and Watson didn’t get injured because they scrambled, they were both freak accidents during practice.

 

[iLLmatiC]

I want Tyrod Taylor as a bridge and draft a QB this year. I think that's doable.

 

[Mitch]

Lamar Jackson is going to fail the eye test during the physical measurement portion of the NFL combine. At 6'3" he's a natural 180 bulked up to a chiseled 205.

Additionally, the RG III, Bridgewater and Watson injuries are going to be a red flag on Jackson.

Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, and Allen are going in the top ten. Jackson is not.

Gentleman's bet Jackson goes top 10? I feel 100% certain he will.

 

[Zeno]

No because Randall Cunningham was a thinner, faster version of Cam Newton. I would liken Jackson to Michael Vick (a right handed version)---similar arm strength and explosive running ability. Jackson is a tougher finisher on his runs.

I can see that too, although body-type his more comparable to Cunningham who was listed at 6'4 210 to Jackson at 6' 3" 205.

Cunningham and Vick both were not the most accurate of passers...is that a worry with Jackson as well?

BTW I think Newton is a better passer than Cunningham and tougher on the run while Cunningham was more elusive.

 

[unseenaz]

I want Tyrod Taylor as a bridge and draft a QB this year. I think that's doable.

taylor with mccoy would be nice. I've always thought Taylor had a lot more skill to be extracted with the right coaching.

 

[iLLmatiC]

taylor with mccoy would be nice. I've always thought Taylor had a lot more skill to be extracted with the right coaching.

I think he and DJ would make a nice 1-2 punch.

 

[Mitch]

Honest question, I see Lamar Jackson compared most favorably to Randall Cunningham, is that a fair comparison?

I like Baker Mayfield, I see tons of desire and leadership there my big concern is how he stacks up physically and mentally--how strong is his arm and can he read defenses?

I am leery of Allen, the below 60% completions scares me--hard to teach accuracy.

Is Lauletta really getting talked up as a potential late first/early second guy? I saw stuff listing him as 3rd-5th round material as he is considered a small school project. Falk on the other hand is likely a 2nd round guy just because of his measurables and what he did in 2015-2016.

The completion % issue is too over-blown, imo.

Look at Tom Brady's stats at Michigan (surrounded by much more talent than at Wyoming): 4,773 yards, 61.9%, 7.5 yap, 30-17 TD/int, 134.9 QBR.

Josh Allen: 5,066, 56.2%, 7.8 ypa, 44-21 TD/int., 137.7 QBR.

Did you know that in 3 of Brady's first 6 years in the NFL his completion % was 60.2%, 61.8%, and 60.8%? Accuracy can be improved.

 

[juza76]

The completion % issue is too over-blown, imo.

Look at Tom Brady's stats at Michigan (surrounded by much more talent than at Wyoming): 4,773 yards, 61.9%, 7.5 yap, 30-17 TD/int, 134.9 QBR.

Josh Allen: 5,066, 56.2%, 7.8 ypa, 44-21 TD/int., 137.7 QBR.

Did you know that in 3 of Brady's first 6 years in the NFL his completion % was 60.2%, 61.8%, and 60.8%? Accuracy can be improved.

Was good at that time being slightly over 60
The new rule helped a lot recently

 

[Stout]

The completion % issue is too over-blown, imo.

Look at Tom Brady's stats at Michigan (surrounded by much more talent than at Wyoming): 4,773 yards, 61.9%, 7.5 yap, 30-17 TD/int, 134.9 QBR.

Josh Allen: 5,066, 56.2%, 7.8 ypa, 44-21 TD/int., 137.7 QBR.

Did you know that in 3 of Brady's first 6 years in the NFL his completion % was 60.2%, 61.8%, and 60.8%? Accuracy can be improved.

You do realize that your big example has Brady at almost 5% better completion percentage, and that your completion percentage for Brady's improvement lists no improvements? Maybe you're trying to say he had better percentages in his other seasons, which you didn't actually say?

 

[Southpaw]

I am leery of Allen, the below 60% completions scares me--hard to teach accuracy.

His accuracy issues seem to be due to his footwork and set up. That can be fixed.

Bridgewater and Watson didn’t get injured because they scrambled, they were both freak accidents during practice.

Watson had pre existing structural damage going back to Clemson. He is damaged and his style will make it worse.

Bridgewater was also pre existing and the freaky damage was inevitable.

 

[GimmedaBall]

Mitch,

Let’s hope that the Cards have a more analytical decision-tree than your friend looking for a dance partner when it comes to their QB search. Cards could cycle through every QB out there until they find #14 that finally agrees to dance. That’s not identifying the one you really want and being aggressive in the pursuit. At the time of the dance, I assume your friend was simply looking for someone to dance with and not necessarily thinking that he was going to find his future wife. About the only plan evident was that he started with the nearest girl and circled the room asking until he was on the far end and got a ‘Yes.’ That’s a ‘feel-good’ ending when they married but it doesn’t illustrate any kind of determination to dance with the one you really wanted to dance with. It was serendipity, the occurrence and development of events by chance in a happy or beneficial way, that got your friend married. It illustrates the determination of the door-to-door salesman who stops at 13 houses and then finally makes a magazine subscription sale at house #14.

Cost Breakdown. Your choices don’t include the cost you are willing to expend to reach the goal. For example, you have Foles as your #1 choice and indicate that “if the cost of the trade is too much, then I fully commit myself to door #2.” What is that cost? Got to specify how much you are willing to spend before you then move on. Also, putting a value on each move may have you flipping some of your choices.

Relative Costs. You should be willing to spend more on your #1 choice than on your #2 choice and on down the line. If you want Foles at your first choice, you should be willing to offer more to get him than you would for your #2 choice Jackson. Your starting bid for Foles should be your top bid ceiling for Jackson. You can offer less for Foles but be fully prepared to concede to the top bid ceiling for Jackson and also be willing to negotiate to your top value bid for Foles if need be. (Good luck horse trading with Andy Reid).

Determine a ‘Probability of Availability’ for each QB. Look at your ratings and assume that other QB-needy teams will have your guys rated in a similar fashion. Some teams will have a much higher value on Foles (or any of the other guys) and may be willing to pay those costs above and beyond what you are willing. That approach by other teams will reduce the probability that the QB you want is even going to be available. Foles may be your #1 guy but he is probably the #1 guy for plenty of other teams who have more trade/draft capital than you to pursue him. That’s going to be the big stumbling block for the Cards—we are at #15, have $25-30 mil in cap, have a new coaching staff, lots of hole to fill on an aging roster, etc. We don’t have as many poker chips to sit at the table with a lot of other teams. The available list is going to be culled down for the Cards simply because we can’t afford it. You will have to alter your list in relationship to your available assets . . . unless you want to pull out the credit card (future draft picks) and spend a bunch on this draft.

Looking at your priority list, I’d say that the Cards are down into Taylor-Keenum-McCar choices as to availability given our capital to pursue.

The Right Partner. Which QB matches up with our new coaching staff and talent? We are all familiar with BA and his 'Big Ben' stereotype QB who could launch bombs down the field. At this point, I don't know what SW and McCoy have in mind either with their QB preference or the playbook they are going to install. Is Foles a fit for what they want to accomplish---if not, will have to bump him out of your #1 preference slot.

Got to assign a BPA value when you get down to using that as your criteria for picking between Kyle Lauletta or Luke Falk. Got to like one of these dance partners above the other in order to chose when you are on the draft clock (or when the music starts to play).

Make some ‘No Way’ decisions. If you want to eliminate Cousins because of money, Bradford because health, etc. just wipe them off the possibility list. If not, they will be there when you are looking at dance partner #14.

 

[GimmedaBall]

I want Tyrod Taylor as a bridge and draft a QB this year. I think that's doable.

Key word is 'doable.' You put my long post in response to Mitch into one sentence, one word.

 

[BW52]

I think the Cardinals might disagree with you on Mayfield. See him as super competitive, not immature. He's gritty and beaten the odds a number of times.

He won`t be passing or scrambling against lousy Big 12 defenses either.Mayfield is shorter than Lamar Jackson and his arm is nowhere good as Jackson`s.So why would he succeed and Jackson fail?Mayfield has some good skills but will they carry over to the NFL? I have my doubts.Jackson is tremendously athletic with a big arm.I think those are two things that will help transition to he PROS.

 

[WildBB]

I can't picture the Cardinals taking Mayfield...especially not with the coaching staff they just hired. I can see the upside---if he were a tad faster I'd like his chances more. In the NFL he's going to get boxed in and outquicked much more than he did in college.

Fair enough. But that doesn't mean he won't continue to grow at the next level. There were plenty of questions about Brees and Montana coming out. They did have the inner desire and drive obviously. Heart figures into the equation. Put weapons around him and see him excell.

This all said, I like Jackson as well. If they stay at 15 he is a viable option there. If they REALLY think he's their guy, they can move up a bit. But we need OL too. So maybe you want to move back into the 1st for one you'd really like to add, who's fallen just a tad.

We will see more at the combine, and I'm looking forward to these guys throwing.
Injury is always a concern too. So you have to factor that in, when evaluating.

 

[WildBB]

He won`t be passing or scrambling against lousy Big 12 defenses either.Mayfield is shorter than Lamar Jackson and his arm is nowhere good as Jackson`s.So why would he succeed and Jackson fail?Mayfield has some good skills but will they carry over to the NFL? I have my doubts.Jackson is tremendously athletic with a big arm.I think those are two things that will help transition to he PROS.

I like them both to be honest. I think Mayfield is a little more advanced in reading defenses, and making progression reads. I think it's good probability that with the right environment both will succeed given a learning curve.

 

[Zeno]

Honest question regarding accuracy, who was the last NFL QB who completed under 60% in college that was considered a top 10 talent at his position in the NFL during his career?

I was looking for Kurt Warner's college numbers as I thought he would be the most likely but couldn't find them.

I did find a couple...Joe Montana and Brett Favre--those are pretty notable of course but that is 40 and 30 years ago. Any recent examples?

I could be way off but I have to believe it is a rare circumstance for someone to not be a high % passer in college to become that in the NFL.

 

[moklerman]

Honest question regarding accuracy, who was the last NFL QB who completed under 60% in college that was considered a top 10 talent at his position in the NFL during his career?

I was looking for Kurt Warner's college numbers as I thought he would be the most likely but couldn't find them.

I did find a couple...Joe Montana and Brett Favre--those are pretty notable of course but that is 40 and 30 years ago. Any recent examples?

I could be way off but I have to believe it is a rare circumstance for someone to not be a high % passer in college to become that in the NFL.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Warner#Career_statistics_and_records

I think it's important to remember that accuracy and completion % are not synonymous. College completion % is a starting point and indicator but those numbers have to be looked at in context. They can be skewed in either direction based on personnel, scheme, competition, etc.

With Warner, he had such a crazy path to the NFL I don't think we can look at his 1 year of regular playing time and completing 58.4% and learn much. With Jackson and Allen, I think it would be more beneficial to actually look at them throwing passes in games than to just look at their statistics.