Mitch,
Let’s hope that the Cards have a more analytical decision-tree than your friend looking for a dance partner when it comes to their QB search. Cards could cycle through every QB out there until they find #14 that finally agrees to dance. That’s not identifying the one you really want and being aggressive in the pursuit. At the time of the dance, I assume your friend was simply looking for someone to dance with and not necessarily thinking that he was going to find his future wife. About the only plan evident was that he started with the nearest girl and circled the room asking until he was on the far end and got a ‘Yes.’ That’s a ‘feel-good’ ending when they married but it doesn’t illustrate any kind of determination to dance with the one you really wanted to dance with. It was serendipity, the occurrence and development of events by chance in a happy or beneficial way, that got your friend married. It illustrates the determination of the door-to-door salesman who stops at 13 houses and then finally makes a magazine subscription sale at house #14.
Cost Breakdown. Your choices don’t include the cost you are willing to expend to reach the goal. For example, you have Foles as your #1 choice and indicate that “if the cost of the trade is too much, then I fully commit myself to door #2.” What is that cost? Got to specify how much you are willing to spend before you then move on. Also, putting a value on each move may have you flipping some of your choices.
Relative Costs. You should be willing to spend more on your #1 choice than on your #2 choice and on down the line. If you want Foles at your first choice, you should be willing to offer more to get him than you would for your #2 choice Jackson. Your starting bid for Foles should be your top bid ceiling for Jackson. You can offer less for Foles but be fully prepared to concede to the top bid ceiling for Jackson and also be willing to negotiate to your top value bid for Foles if need be. (Good luck horse trading with Andy Reid).
Determine a ‘Probability of Availability’ for each QB. Look at your ratings and assume that other QB-needy teams will have your guys rated in a similar fashion. Some teams will have a much higher value on Foles (or any of the other guys) and may be willing to pay those costs above and beyond what you are willing. That approach by other teams will reduce the probability that the QB you want is even going to be available. Foles may be your #1 guy but he is probably the #1 guy for plenty of other teams who have more trade/draft capital than you to pursue him. That’s going to be the big stumbling block for the Cards—we are at #15, have $25-30 mil in cap, have a new coaching staff, lots of hole to fill on an aging roster, etc. We don’t have as many poker chips to sit at the table with a lot of other teams. The available list is going to be culled down for the Cards simply because we can’t afford it. You will have to alter your list in relationship to your available assets . . . unless you want to pull out the credit card (future draft picks) and spend a bunch on this draft.
Looking at your priority list, I’d say that the Cards are down into Taylor-Keenum-McCar choices as to availability given our capital to pursue.
The Right Partner. Which QB matches up with our new coaching staff and talent? We are all familiar with BA and his 'Big Ben' stereotype QB who could launch bombs down the field. At this point, I don't know what SW and McCoy have in mind either with their QB preference or the playbook they are going to install. Is Foles a fit for what they want to accomplish---if not, will have to bump him out of your #1 preference slot.
Got to assign a BPA value when you get down to using that as your criteria for picking between Kyle Lauletta or Luke Falk. Got to like one of these dance partners above the other in order to chose when you are on the draft clock (or when the music starts to play).
Make some ‘No Way’ decisions. If you want to eliminate Cousins because of money, Bradford because health, etc. just wipe them off the possibility list. If not, they will be there when you are looking at dance partner #14.
Just sayin
