Seriously... What are the odds?

[82CardsGrad]

Rams: Host KC, Host 9ers, @ Seattle

Seattle: Host Atlanta, @ Tampa, Host St Louis

S.F.: @ San Diego, @ St Louis, Host Arizona

Arizona: @ Carolina, Host Cowgirls, @ 9ers


What if: The Rams go 1 & 2 with the one win being Seattle.
Seattle loses out.
The 9ers go 1 & 2 with their one win being the Rams.
The Cards win out.

That puts the Rams at 7 & 9. The Hawks at 6 & 10. The 9ers at 6 & 10 and the Cards at 7 & 9. I have no idea what the tie-break would be with the Rams, but, what the heck are the odds of the rest of the season unfolding in this manner? I would say they are better than 50-50, no?

 

[FArting]

I would get my old name back if the Cards win the west,

 

[Pariah]

I'm no mathematician, but I can guarantee you it's not 50/50.

That said, it's completely possible and not at all an utterly wacky scenario (other than the end result of the Cards getting into the playoffs after the season they've had).

 

[Cardinal Bob]

If all the above happened, the Rams would be 3-3 within the division, while the Cards would be 2-4. Since we split head-to-head, I believe that is the next tie-breaker. So we're out either way.

 

[Brighteyes]

The only way the Cards can win is if in the last game of the season, the Rams and Seahawks play to a tie.

That, after the Cards win out, Seattle and Rams lose out, and 49'ers lose all games except for the game they play against the Rams.

Computation is -- not good.

 

[82CardsGrad]

If all the above happened, the Rams would be 3-3 within the division, while the Cards would be 2-4. Since we split head-to-head, I believe that is the next tie-breaker. So we're out either way.

The only way the Cards can win is if in the last game of the season, the Rams and Seahawks play to a tie.

That, after the Cards win out, Seattle and Rams lose out, and 49'ers lose all games except for the game they play against the Rams.

Computation is -- not good.

OK. Thanks...

 

[TheHopToad]

Still wouldn't matter. Next tie breaker would be record within the division. In this scenario, the Rams would be 3-3 and the Cards would be 2-4. Rams would win the division.

Mathmatically, the only scenario in which the Cards could still win the division is if everything else happens above AND the Seahawks and Rams game ends in a tie. The Cards would then be 7-9 and both Seattle and St. Louis would be 6-9-1.

Cards have to win the division outright and that is the only way possible. They lose all other tiebreakers.

 

[Goldfield]

lol...

 

[Goldfield]

Seriously, we have been so pathetic this year, even if we made the playoffs we should just forfeit to another division.

 

[TheHopToad]

What sucks for the other NFC teams is that there is likely going to be a 10-6 team that doesn't make the playoffs, while the either the Rams or Seahawks may make it in at 7-9, and host a game.

If the playoffs started today, the Rams would host the Saints.

 

[az1965]

If, somehow, someway, this ridiculous scenario comes to reality... I will be the first one to step forward and say the worst team in the history of NFL to make the playoffs.

 

[CaptTurbo]

Why would you want to make the playoffs at this point? No way we win a game and we have to endure ridicule abut being the first sub 500 team in the playoffs. No thanks.

 

[Capital Card]

So basically, Collinsworth was two years off....whoever wins the NFC-W will be the worst team to ever make the playoffs.

Go Cards!!!

 

[Duckjake]

As far as I can tell two 8-8 teams have made the playoffs. The Rams and the Chargers. Both teams advanced past the wildcard round.

So much for skulking into the playoffs and getting embarrassed in the first game.

 

[NJCardFan]

According to Yahoo's playoff scenario, the only way the Cards can win the division is if we go 7-9, the 9ers go 6-10, and the Hawks and Rams lose the next 2 and tie each other in week 17 to go 6-9-1. Talk about long odds. If we win out, the Bucs and Vikings games are going to haunt us.

 

[kerouac9]

Why would you want to make the playoffs at this point? No way we win a game and we have to endure ridicule abut being the first sub 500 team in the playoffs. No thanks.

Because in five or ten years, the only thing that people will remember is the NFC Championship banner hanging from the rafters at UPS. You never, ever turn your back on a possible divisional title.

 

[earthsci]

Because in five or ten years, the only thing that people will remember is the NFC Championship banner hanging from the rafters at UPS. You never, ever turn your back on a possible divisional title.

 

[Lloydian]

What sucks for the other NFC teams is that there is likely going to be a 10-6 team that doesn't make the playoffs, while the either the Rams or Seahawks may make it in at 7-9, and host a game.

Tired of that argument. If a 10-6 team doesn't make the playoffs, they weren't the best team in their division. They weren't the best team that didn't win a division. They weren't even the second best team that didn't win a division. The whole point of the wild card is to make sure that teams that are good but stuck in a division with an even better team don't get overlooked.

 

[NJCardFan]

Question, did anyone whine when the Chargers made it at 8-8 or when the Browns won in 1985 at 8-8?

 

[Chaz]

Talk about long odds. If we win out, the Bucs and Vikings games are going to haunt us.

The Bucs and Vikings games already haunt me.

Along with both Seahawk games.

 

[Pariah]

Question, did anyone whine when the Chargers made it at 8-8

Yes. It was all over the airwaves.

 

[THESMEL]

because Screw them

I want to get to the playoffs because: Screw them other teams, I hope they puke. Espn too!

Besides that I went over the Rams seahawks tie scenerio last week. The Niners gotta beat the Rams and lose the rest.

but The Rams and the Seahawks equally suck and are very evenly matched at sucking. (again screw them I hope they puke) So if there was ever a year for them to tie the last game of the season 0-0 against each other, 2010 is the year.

There is also the chance that they both tie other games too. Snow balls chance in Phoenix, but this close to a 3rd division win, and the year the NFCW is having.

WHISENSTUPID WHAT WERE YOU THINKING WHEN YOU CUTT MATT LEINART! AHHHGGGG

We would probably give up with 6 minutes left in the 3rd 1/4 against the saints again, but what the hell.

The only way the Cards can win is if in the last game of the season, the Rams and Seahawks play to a tie.

That, after the Cards win out, Seattle and Rams lose out, and 49'ers lose all games except for the game they play against the Rams.

Computation is -- not good.

 

[CardsMath]

Being a math major back in college, I thought I would help calculate a “ballpark” probability that the Cardinals make the playoffs.

There are 9 events that need to happen, as set forth below:

1. Cardinals beat Carolina: Probability: 1/2(approx.)

2. Cardinals beat Dallas: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

3. Cardinals beat SF: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

4. KC beats Rams: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

5. SF beats Rams: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

6. Atlanta beats Seattle: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

7. Tampa beats Seattle: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

8. San Diego beats SF: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

9. Seattle ties Rams: Probability: 1/1000 (approx.)


For the sake of simplicity, I have assumed that in games 1-8, each team has a 50% chance of winning. Of course the actual probability of each game will vary, but I used the 50% assumption to generate an objective, ballpark number.

For game 9, I assumed that a tie happens approximately every five years in the NFL. The last tie was in 2008, the last tie before that was in 2002, and before that there were two in 1997. There are 256 regular season games in each season (at least in the current NFL structure with 32 teams and a 16 game regular season). This results in an estimated probability of 1 in 1280 for a tie under these assumptions. I rounded this off to 1 in 1000 (trying to be a little optimistic). Of course these numbers could be debated, but in any event this generates a ballpark number.

I have also assumed that each of these 9 events are independent. This may not entirely be true (e.g., if Sam Bradford is injured, this would affect each of the Rams’ games after the injury), but this assumption greatly simplifies the calculations.

Under these assumptions, the odds of the Cardinals making the playoffs can be calculated as follows:

(1/2)8 * (1/1000) = 1 in 256,000.

So, we are looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 in 250,000. This number can be adjusted upward or downward depending upon one’s opinion of the likelihood of occurrence of each of the 9 individual events described above.

While this number may seem daunting (and it is), the odds have improved since last week. Before last weekend’s games (in which the Cardinals won and Seattle and the Rams both lost), the probability of making the playoffs under the above assumptions would have been just over 1 in 2 million.

 

[Mulli]

Cardsmath, hi, can you calculate the odds of the Cardinals getting the number 1 overall pick? Thanks.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Being a math major back in college, I thought I would help calculate a “ballpark” probability that the Cardinals make the playoffs.

There are 9 events that need to happen, as set forth below:

1. Cardinals beat Carolina: Probability: 1/2(approx.)

2. Cardinals beat Dallas: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

3. Cardinals beat SF: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

4. KC beats Rams: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

5. SF beats Rams: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

6. Atlanta beats Seattle: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

7. Tampa beats Seattle: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

8. San Diego beats SF: Probability: 1/2 (approx.)

9. Seattle ties Rams: Probability: 1/1000 (approx.)


For the sake of simplicity, I have assumed that in games 1-8, each team has a 50% chance of winning. Of course the actual probability of each game will vary, but I used the 50% assumption to generate an objective, ballpark number.

For game 9, I assumed that a tie happens approximately every five years in the NFL. The last tie was in 2008, the last tie before that was in 2002, and before that there were two in 1997. There are 256 regular season games in each season (at least in the current NFL structure with 32 teams and a 16 game regular season). This results in an estimated probability of 1 in 1280 for a tie under these assumptions. I rounded this off to 1 in 1000 (trying to be a little optimistic). Of course these numbers could be debated, but in any event this generates a ballpark number.

I have also assumed that each of these 9 events are independent. This may not entirely be true (e.g., if Sam Bradford is injured, this would affect each of the Rams’ games after the injury), but this assumption greatly simplifies the calculations.

Under these assumptions, the odds of the Cardinals making the playoffs can be calculated as follows:

(1/2)8 * (1/1000) = 1 in 256,000.

So, we are looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 in 250,000. This number can be adjusted upward or downward depending upon one’s opinion of the likelihood of occurrence of each of the 9 individual events described above.

While this number may seem daunting (and it is), the odds have improved since last week. Before last weekend’s games (in which the Cardinals won and Seattle and the Rams both lost), the probability of making the playoffs under the above assumptions would have been just over 1 in 2 million.

Finally! Someone answered the question!!