Suns Draft Prospects Who do We Take?

[thegrahamcrackr]

i lost my whole post i made due to ISP problems


So for the final time....I do not feel this team can fill a need with the 17th pick in the draft better than they could fill it with a FA or a later pick, especiall considering the financial ramifications. As of now with the info available, I feel the pick is worthless seeing we could get a comprable player for cheaper without the pick.

Just my 2 cents....I know I have no real evidence supporitng my arguement, just as no one else has any real arguement against it. Once the draft possibilities and scouting reports become more clear we will be able to judge with a more concrete arguement. This is why i tend to bite my lip until things are more clear....I tried to play into the game about "the fun thing to do during the offseason" and I apparently lost. No biggie

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr
I tried to play into the game about "the fun thing to do during the offseason" and I apparently lost. No biggie

There is no game to play--it's an interesting conversation--I just don't feel like you are sufficiently reasoning out your opinion--just as you probably feel the same about me. No big deal. We still have 2 months until the draft, so it'll be awhile before anything becomes concrete. I just think we'll have a better chance with the #17 than anything we could get in Free Agency--especially where money is concerned.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

and i think the opposite, its all good, i love how this board works........like I have said, I am not agaonst chaging my opinion once the draft approaches.......just as of today....looking at prospet vs. the FA possibilities hat might be had for cheap....I would take my chance in FA. but we will have to wait and see for a couple months

I look forward to more debates....but I look even more forward to a good nights sleep, night everone....and may everyone have sweet dreams about next years season

 

[jbeecham]

Why does our draft pick have to either suck or be so good that we can't afford to pay him? There is just as much of a chance that he'll be an average role player that does a good supporting job and we will be able to afford to pay him because he won't demand much money. I'd rather take a chance to get a great player in the draft than keep signing aging players every offseason just to fill our roster spots. The league keeps getting younger and quicker and these older players are available because they aren't as serviceable as they used to be.

 

[SUTTILL]

"Nice--this is selective memory at its best. Let's look at the last, say, 5 years. In that time, there have been 29 teams x 5 years of second round picks--that equals 145 players that have been chosen in the 2nd round in the last 5 years. Of that number, how many do you think stuck? You've named 4. 4 out of 145. Two 2nd round picks? They are WORTHLESS". --Chaplin
___________

Here are some interesting Suns' Picks from the 2nd round and later over the years:

Don Buse, 3rd Round 1972

George Gervin, 3rd Round 1974

Mike Bratz, 3rd Round 1977

Jeff Hornecek, 2nd Round 1986

Steve Kerr, Andrew Lang, Dean Garrett, 2nd Round 1988

Cedrick Ceballos, 2nd Round 1990

Stephen Jackson, 2nd Round 1997

I've left off a few others, like Johny High. Some of you may not be old enough to remember, but guys like Don Buse and Mike Bratz, and even High (no pun intended!) were major contributors. The other ones I've mentioned show that the Suns know how to make good picks even with later ones. So I beg to differ, the 2nd round picks are not worthless. You may end up finding good talent and good role players, even though the odds are against it, as the gaps in the picks I've listed indicate.

 

[elindholm]

In my opinion, scouting has gotten a lot more sophisticated. If you look at that list, you'll see that only one of the second-round picks comes from the last 12 years. It was more common for late-round picks to end up having careers in "the old days," because teams didn't know that much about what they were doing when they drafted. It's less common now, because the true prospects almost always get correctly identified and go early.

I think that a late first-round pick is not worth as much as two early second-round picks. But I'm not convinced that a #17 pick qualifies as "late." It's only four picks after the lottery, after all. My guess is that, if you looked at the last ten #17 picks taken, probably about half of them will have turned out to be decent players. That's just a hunch, and if someone wants to look it up, that would be great. A 50% chance to wind up with a contributor seems worth it to me.

Finally, is anyone offering two early second-round picks for the #17? Not that I've heard. So the entire conversation is moot.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Originally posted by jbeecham
Why does our draft pick have to either suck or be so good that we can't afford to pay him? There is just as much of a chance that he'll be an average role player that does a good supporting job and we will be able to afford to pay him because he won't demand much money. I'd rather take a chance to get a great player in the draft than keep signing aging players every offseason just to fill our roster spots. The league keeps getting younger and quicker and these older players are available because they aren't as serviceable as they used to be.

But wouldnt the chance of obtaining a good role player be better in the second round??? You do not want to get a vet, fine, I cannot really argue with that. But why would you rather go on a first round pick based on potential instead of 2nd round pick where you know what you get? I mean you can get a very solid role player in the second round, eviedenced by the last 2 drafts. The league's fascination with drafting on potential leaves all the players that proved themself in the NCAA and Euro leagues already available when the 30th pick comes around.

For you eric, no one is technically offering anything to anyone until draft day in terms of picks, or july 1st for FAs. That is why I said I tend to bite me lip. It is hard to speculate on things since certain players can be so different.

For more recent second round picks I will name a few:

2002

Dan Gadzuric (34)
Carlos Boozer ( 35)
Rasual Butler (53)

2001

Gilbert Arenas (31)
Earl Watson (40)
Jarron Collins (53)

2000

Marco Jaric (30)
Jake Voskuhl (33)
Michael Redd (43)
Eddie House (37)

1999

Evan Eschmeyer (34)
Wang Zhi Zhi (36)
Gordan Giricek (40)
Lee Nailon (43)
Todd MacCulloch (47)
Emmanuel Ginobili ( 57)

1998

Ruben Patterson (31)
Rashard Lewis (32)
Jelani McCoy(33)
Shammond Williams ( 37)
Jerome James (36)
Cutino Mobley (41)
Greg Buckner (53)
Ryan Bowen (55)


I will stop there, the point is there are plenty of impact players to be found in the second round. I personally would rather chance myself with multiple picks early in the second round instead of one guaranteed contract in the mid first round.

 

[fordronken]

Here is my unofficial list of servicable players from the second round over the last 12 years. There are quite a few. However, I don't know that any of these players wouldn't have had similar careers had there not been a second round. They still would have gotten workouts, and still would, in all likelihood, have made the team. 2nd round contracts aren't guaranteed, and without a second round, it gives the 2nd round players a chance to go to the teams they are interested in first.

•Gadzuric, Boozer and Rasual Butler(2002)
•Gilbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur, Earl Watson(2001)
•Marko Jaric, Jake Voskuhl, Eddie House, Eduardo Najera, Michael Redd(2000)
•Calvin Booth, Wang Zhi-Zhi, Lee Nailon, Todd MacCulloch, Gordon Giricek, Emmanual Ginobilli(1999)
•Ruben Patterson, Rashard Lewis, Jelani McCoy, Shammond Williams, Jerome James, Rafer Alston, Cuttino Mobley, Jahidi White, Tremaine Folwkes(1998)
•Stephen Jackson(although he didn't make an impact for quite some time), Alvin Williams, Predrag Drobnjak(1997)
•Othella Harrington, Moochie Norris, Jeff McInnis, Malik Rose, Jamie Feick, Shandon Anderson(1996)
•Andrew DeClercq, Fred Hoiberg, Don Reid(1995)
•Howard Eisley, Jim McIlvane, Voshon Lenard, Lawrence Funderburke(1994)
•Luscious Harris, Gheorge Muresan, Nick Van Exel, Bryon Russell, Chris Whitney(1993)
•P.J. Brown, Sean Rooks, Brent Price(1992)
•Randy Brown, Doug Overton, Elliot Perry, Bobby Phills, Isaac Austin(1991)
•Toni Kukoc, Greg Foster, Judd Buechler, Bimbo Coles, Tony Massengurg, Cedric Ceballos(1991)
•Sherman Douglas, Cliff Robinson, Dino Radja, Chucky Brown(1990)

 

[fordronken]

Oops. Graham beat me to it.

 

[elindholm]

I will stop there, the point is there are plenty of impact players to be found in the second round.

How many players on your list do you consider "impact players"? How many of them would contribute on the current Suns team? I see only these:

2002
Boozer

2001
Arenas
Okur

2000 -- a good year
Jaric maybe, but probably not
Voskuhl
Najera
Redd

1999
Giricek
Ginobili

And so on. So it looks like maybe 2-3 a year, which is 10% or less of all second-round picks. My opinion is that there is a much better than 10% chance that the #17 pick will contribute at a comparable level.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Alright, peopel in the years that I mentioned htat I feel would make an impact taken 17 throught he end of the first round


2002

None as of now

2001

Jason collins (18)
Zach randolf (19)
tony parker (28)
Jamal tinsley (27)

2000

Desmond Mason (17)
Q RIch ( 18)
Magloire (19)

1999

Posey (18)
Kirelenko (24)

1998

Rasho ( 17)
Garrity (18) ---who we had


THe point is...the amount of people taken in the first round vs. the second round is a small difference. Is a 3 year guaranteed contract worht the percent or two chance you will obtain the better player?? What about when you figure you could get multiple 2nd round picks compared to 1 first (younever trade down without getting more in some form or another)??

 

[Joe Mama]

Wait a second. That last list was only for players taken 17-29 whereas the second-round list was for the entire second round.

I trust that if the Phoenix Suns are not especially enamored with the guys in the latter half of the first round they'll make a move. The team figures to have a tight budget over the next several years. I don't think they'll add a player with a three-year guaranteed contract just because they can.

I do feel there will be a quality player available at No. 17 though.

Joe

 

[Rattler Rod]

Originally posted by SweetD
At first I was looking at Zarko but I may also be intrested in Brian Cook?

You must be registered for see images

Probably the cutest , white , guy with ties to the East Valley.

 

[Chaplin]

And which team actually has 2 2nd rounders to give? You wanna trade one for two, but it's near impossible. So why discuss it?

I think I'm pretty much done--I made my point, there's no point going on with this fantasy.

 

[SweetD]

Ok I don't understand how a #17 draft pick will cost so much more than signing Williams or another Vet Free Agent???? The cost is about the same and you lock a guy into the price for 3 years... Just look at players like B.Wallace and others that played out small contacts. By the time he comes up for a renewal Penny will be off the books also. I would rather have a prospect then a Vet for one year....

J.Dixion (#17 ) $1,003,511.00

S.Williams $1,030,000.00

 

[hcsilla]

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr
Alright, peopel in the years that I mentioned htat I feel would make an impact taken 17 throught he end of the first round


2002

None as of now

2001

Jason collins (18)
Zach randolf (19)
tony parker (28)
Jamal tinsley (27)

2000

Desmond Mason (17)
Q RIch ( 18)
Magloire (19)

1999

Posey (18)
Kirelenko (24)

1998

Rasho ( 17)
Garrity (18) ---who we had

You forgot several players

2001

Brendan Haywood
Gerald Wallace

2000

Claxton
Peterson
Tsakalidis

1999

Glover
Kenny Thomas
Foster
George
Jumaine Jones

1998

Ricky Davis
Al Harrington
Skinner


BTW,this is one of the worst threads what I have ever seen.

Don't take a pick because it can turn out to a player who will be that good that he will demand a lot of money?
By your logic you should have to trade a #1 pick for eight 2nd rounders because the 1/1 pick can become a star player who will demand the max.
Fortunately this very dangerous risk is smaller if you have 8 2nd rounders.....

 

[SweetD]

Originally posted by Chaplin
And which team actually has 2 2nd rounders to give? You wanna trade one for two, but it's near impossible. So why discuss it?

I think I'm pretty much done--I made my point, there's no point going on with this fantasy.

Chicago has 3- 2nd rounders
Miami Heat has 2
Atlanta has 2
Knicks has 2

 

[hcsilla]

Originally posted by SweetD
Chicago has 3- 2nd rounders
Miami Heat has 2
Atlanta has 2
Knicks has 2

They do but nobody will trade a #17 for 2 2nd rounders.
Obviously neither Suns are that dumb.

 

[SweetD]

I agree there is no way we should trade are 1st rounder. The cost is going to be the same if we sign a vet at 1mil or get a rook who could be a bust (Ford) or a stud (Amare) at 1mil for 3+ years.

ZARKO ZARKO ZARKO ZARKO COOK??

 

[Chaplin]

The Bulls don't have 3 second rounders--their first 2nd actually belongs to the Nuggets. I don't even know why we're still discussing that asinine 1 for 2 idea. It makes absolutely no sense.

 

[elindholm]

By your logic you should have to trade a #1 pick for eight 2nd rounders because the 1/1 pick can become a star player who will demand the max.
Fortunately this very dangerous risk is smaller if you have 8 2nd rounders.....

LOL.

Evidently the Hungarian culture lacks the concept of "tact." Even so, hcsilla, I admire your ability to express your opinions clearly.

 

[hcsilla]

Originally posted by elindholm

Evidently the Hungarian culture lacks the concept of "tact."]

Rather my english command lacks depth.
BTW, don't generalize hungarians!Not everyone in Hungary is that big hick as I am...

More seriously I don't think that there are big differences between the hungarian and other european "cultures".

Even so, hcsilla, I admire your ability to express your opinions clearly.

Thank you but I have to talk clearly because my poor english command doesn't allow me to talk more softly

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

haha alright, the multiple second rounders was just one possibile trade we could get for our pick. You know they all dont have to be in the same year.

I am just trying to say that we do not need another starting caliber player on this team. We might as well get rid of the pick to free up the money and roster spot to try and sign someone who we know will fill a gap we have.

If there arent any offers worth while, of course you keep the pick. But IMO we should definitely see what we can get for it.

To much youth can be a bad thing. I think that we are near the point that our bench would be better off getting older instead of younger.

Originally posted by Joe Mama
Wait a second. That last list was only for players taken 17-29 whereas the second-round list was for the entire second round.

Joe

I wasnt saying that the first round has just as good a change as the second round to produce good talent. I was just saying that the last half of the 1st round is not much better then the second round

 

[jbeecham]

Wouldn't having another starter quality player make us more like the Mavericks (with better defense of course)? Sure we don't have Cuban as an owner, but I can see the Colangi spending the money if we have a winner in town.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by thegrahamcrackr


I am just trying to say that we do not need another starting caliber player on this team. We might as well get rid of the pick to free up the money and roster spot to try and sign someone who we know will fill a gap we have.

Whoa!

Hold on right there. Nobody said that the #17 pick would be "starting caliber". In fact, everyone pretty much agrees that the #17 pick would be used as punch off the bench, which as you probably agree, we desperately need.