Suns Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[SunsTzu]

If were looking at rookies from last year who could potentially blow up in the Suns system, he would probably be #2 behind Chris Paul.

I'd actually rather have Bogut and Granger over CV.

 

[The Commish]

That young up and comer Andres Nocioni is one year younger than Marion. You can play max contract Redd(who is a bigger disapearing act in the playoffs than Marion) at SF, but I think just about anyone who has seen him play would agreee he's a SG. Peja and Artest are also playoff chokers.

All those guys who have been in the league a few years are also making a ton of money and listing them just makes it seem like Marion isn't as overpaid as some think.

True about Nocioni, but how many of those players have an All Star PF and an MVP PG? It's all about the dollars. All of those players are the cornerstones of their respective teams. Marion is the third option.

Brevin Knight scenario only came up because he would solve our backup PG situation for a while. I would like to draft one, but there simply arent any talented PG's in the draft.

Anyone who tells me that Rudy Gay won't be a stud or a great player in our system is kidding themselves too.

 

[elindholm]

I think I'd prefer to atleast make one run with the roster before a major shake-up though.

Me too. I'm just worried that getting a decent price will be much more difficult a year from now. First of all, any team that wants Marion will be getting him for only two years instead of three. Also, Marion's numbers will go down next year with Stoudemire's return, and he probably won't make the All-Star team again.

But more importantly, opposing teams get pretty stingy at the bargaining table when they know that you have to make a deal. Every time it becomes "known" that a team has to move a star player, they get a lousy price.

 

[SunsTzu]

True about Nocioni, but how many of those players have an All Star PF and an MVP PG? It's all about the dollars. All of those players are the cornerstones of their respective teams. Marion is the third option.

2005-06 Team Leaders
STAT PLAYER AVG
Points Shawn Marion 21.8
Rebounds Shawn Marion 11.8
Assists Steve Nash 10.5
Steals Shawn Marion 2.0
Blocks Shawn Marion 1.7

Marion wasn't a cornerstone of the team this year? The fact that the Suns could get the type of production Marion gives at the 3rd option is another reason I'd prefer to keep him.

Edit- What all-star PF did Marion play with this year that helped him so much with those stats? Prince played on a team where the other 4 starters were all-stars, Odom played next to an all-nba player.

 

[The Commish]

2005-06 Team Leaders
STAT PLAYER AVG
Points Shawn Marion 21.8
Rebounds Shawn Marion 11.8
Assists Steve Nash 10.5
Steals Shawn Marion 2.0
Blocks Shawn Marion 1.7

Marion wasn't a cornerstone of the team this year? The fact that the Suns could get the type of production Marion gives at the 3rd option is another reason I'd prefer to keep him.

Edit- What all-star PF did Marion play with this year that helped him so much with those stats? Prince played on a team where the other 4 starters were all-stars, Odom played next to an all-nba player.

We all know he is the 3rd option when Amare comes back. Perhaps 4th considering Diaw's ability to create his own shot.

Furthermore if you read my first post I stated I would rather keep him for one more year. However the scenarios for trading him right now seem to be very favorable. I don't want to fix the machine if it isn't broken. The point is that Marion will be traded either this summer or next whether you like it or not.

 

[SunsTzu]

We all know he is the 3rd option when Amare comes back. Perhaps 4th considering Diaw's ability to create his own shot.

Furthermore if you read my first post I stated I would rather keep him for one more year. However the scenarios for trading him right now seem to be very favorable. I don't want to fix the machine if it isn't broken. The point is that Marion will be traded either this summer or next whether you like it or not.

Define option. If it's the guy who takes the most shots or scores the most points then I'd expect Marion to be the 2nd option.

Marion is on the verge of being traded every year since he signed his contract. I think if the team stays together this year and wins a championship next year the chances of Marion being traded deminish greatly.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Ron Artest, 7.1 million (well known "issues")
Carmelo Anthony, rookie option year (will get max or near max)
Vince Carter, 15.1 million
Josh Howard, rookie option year (will get max or near max)
Lebron James, Um, soon to be max
Andre Kirilenko, 12.3 million (chronic injuries)
Rashard Lewis, 9.3 million (player option in 07-08 )
Corey Maggette, 7.2 million (injuries kept him from starting for the Clips)
Tracy McGrady, max (injuries)
Lamar Odom, 12.4 million (max)
Tayshaun Prince, unclear
Michael Redd, 13.2 million (max)
Peja Stojakovic, free agent

Wow, after looking at that list, I am more inclined than ever to keep Marion.

 

[elindholm]

Wow, after looking at that list, I am more inclined than ever to keep Marion.

At whose expense?

 

[hcsilla]

Wow, after looking at that list, I am more inclined than ever to keep Marion.

At whose expense?

Tim Thomas'.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Tim Thomas'.

Yes, that is correct. The lux tax level is expected to be at $63 million this year. I expect it will be more with the leagues increasing popularity this year (increased merchandising, attendance etc). It could go as high as $65 million. Actually, it is remotely possible that the league salaries might not meet the level against revenues to invoke the lux tax at all.

That aside. The Suns projected salaries next year at present total $62 million.
Two late first round picks will total about $1.5 million. So we're right there.

I expect we will draft overseas talent that can remain there and develop, and we don't have to pay them. Sergio?

Pat Burke and Brian Grant have player options that total $2.4 million between them. I would guess we'll be paying them this year.

If we really want TT, we could trade James Jones, draft overseas prospects, and clear up around $4 million to offer TT.

Eddie House has one more year left at about $1 million. That is VERY tradeable.

So there are options.

 

[Goldfield]

I say keep Marion one more year. With Amare We should be a threat to win it all.

Unless we are getting a Garnett back then stand pat and give this team another shot with their Mini Shaq(Amare) down low.

 

[MastersofCombat]

I say put Marion on the ring of fame and trade him only because theres a stupid salary / luxury cap involved

 

[George O'Brien]

I have a couple of questions about the luxury tax.

1. Which salaries are used to calculate it? HoopsHype has some carryover salary from Eiisley listed? Do buysouts and signing bonues impact it the same way they do cap? What about retirements?

2. When is it calcuated? Is it the salaries at the start of the season or the end?

 

[JCSunsfan]

I have a question. Shawn Marion averaged 25.5 ppg and 12.6 rebs against the Clippers. The Clippers would have beaten us in 5 or 6 without Marion.

He averaged 17 ppg and 13 rebounds per game against the Mavs.

How is that failing to step up. Especially since Raja went down, Marion draws the most difficult defensive assignment on the floor, is expected to be the team's primary rebounder, and run out on the break.

Nash isn't expected to guard anyone--to speak of. In the end, Nash runs out of gas and everyone says we need to get him a backup, he plays too many minutes.

Marion starts running out of gas (a double double still), and because he has a teammate that performed unexpectedly well in the series, we're yelling "trade him."

There is NO ONE in the league who can do what Shawn Marion does for this team (except possibly KG). Shawn and Amare are a perfect match.

 

[Mainstreet]

I have a question. Shawn Marion averaged 25.5 ppg and 12.6 rebs against the Clippers. The Clippers would have beaten us in 5 or 6 without Marion.

He averaged 17 ppg and 13 rebounds per game against the Mavs.

How is that failing to step up. Especially since Raja went down, Marion draws the most difficult defensive assignment on the floor, is expected to be the team's primary rebounder, and run out on the break.

Nash isn't expected to guard anyone--to speak of. In the end, Nash runs out of gas and everyone says we need to get him a backup, he plays too many minutes.

Marion starts running out of gas (a double double still), and because he has a teammate that performed unexpectedly well in the series, we're yelling "trade him."

There is NO ONE in the league who can do what Shawn Marion does for this team (except possibly KG). Shawn and Amare are a perfect match.

I agree. Shawn has consistently produced for the Suns. However, almost every player in the league is tradeable if the right deal comes along.

I just do not see the Suns getting fair value for him and he has always been there for the Suns. It is not Shawn's fault he is not 6'11."

 

[elindholm]

The "let's just keep this team intact" crowd doesn't seem to get it. Yes, the Suns can stave off the financial bogeyman for one more year if they let Tim Thomas go. But after that, all hell breaks lose. While it's true that the luxury tax may not even kick in, it will be the threat of it that will force the Suns' hand. I can see them flirting with the line or overstepping it by a million or two, but they won't go way over. Not even to preserve a championship squad.

Also, even saying goodbye to Tim Thomas is a higher price than many want to acknowledge. Marion was critical to this year's limited playoff run, but so was Thomas. For each big game or specific play that Marion produced, you could find one for Thomas (or close, anyway). Without Thomas, the Suns fall to the Lakers in six, at the most.

Here's the reality: Keeping "this team" (which includes Thomas) together is financially impossible and will not happen. Not even for one more year.

Now sure, if we have to choose between Marion and Tim Thomas for '06-'07, the smart choice is Marion. Unfortunately, the issue is much more complicated than that. Decisions made this summer will have profound implications for the next few years.

Is Marion a good player that the Suns would like to keep? Of course. Is he someone the team must have in order to pursue a championship? I would say no.

I can imagine the Suns winning a title without Marion. Actually, it's really not very difficult to imagine that at all. The hypothetical roster resulting from the proposal that started this thread is clearly stronger than what they had this year.

Can I imagine them as contenders in '07-'08 and beyond, with a financially strapped roster that has five big contracts and nowhere near enough quality depth? Not really. But that is the destiny of the "keep this team together" option.

 

[Chaz]

I don't want to see Marion traded but this trade (the original post) is a good one for a number of reasons, most of them financial. I like all of those players we would be getting.

In a perfect world I want Marion to retire with the Suns. I really don't think the type of system they run would be nearly as effective without his unique ability to rebound and run the floor.

However, sometimes you do what you have to do for the good of the franchise. I am glad I don't have to make these decisions and be judged on them.

 

[SunsTzu]

Can I imagine them as contenders in '07-'08 and beyond, with a financially strapped roster that has five big contracts and nowhere near enough quality depth? Not really. But that is the destiny of the "keep this team together" option.

What 5 big contracts? There are will only be 4 unless you're counting KT and if it was between keeping KT or Marion I'd take Marion.

Hypothetically would you prefer the Suns to win the championship next year and worry about financial implications after or do you want to break up the team to field a team that won't be as good but may be together longer. I'd take the championship team personally, the Suns have had enough playoff runs without winning it for my taste.

I'm also not convinced the Suns would get low balled a year from now for Marion unless he has a horrible year. Nor am I convinced the Suns would be looking to move Marion having just won a championship.

Unless the Suns have to give Diaw a max contract and/or decide to shell out a ton of dough for Barbosa the only year they'd only be in the 70+mil range is the final year of KT's deal assuming he's still on the team. Sarver has stated he is trying to follow the business plan the Spurs have run. The Spurs payroll will likely be around the 65mil mark for the next few years.

 

[boisesuns]

The "let's just keep this team intact" crowd doesn't seem to get it. Yes, the Suns can stave off the financial bogeyman for one more year if they let Tim Thomas go. But after that, all hell breaks lose. While it's true that the luxury tax may not even kick in, it will be the threat of it that will force the Suns' hand. I can see them flirting with the line or overstepping it by a million or two, but they won't go way over. Not even to preserve a championship squad.

Also, even saying goodbye to Tim Thomas is a higher price than many want to acknowledge. Marion was critical to this year's limited playoff run, but so was Thomas. For each big game or specific play that Marion produced, you could find one for Thomas (or close, anyway). Without Thomas, the Suns fall to the Lakers in six, at the most.

Here's the reality: Keeping "this team" (which includes Thomas) together is financially impossible and will not happen. Not even for one more year.

Now sure, if we have to choose between Marion and Tim Thomas for '06-'07, the smart choice is Marion. Unfortunately, the issue is much more complicated than that. Decisions made this summer will have profound implications for the next few years.

Is Marion a good player that the Suns would like to keep? Of course. Is he someone the team must have in order to pursue a championship? I would say no.

I can imagine the Suns winning a title without Marion. Actually, it's really not very difficult to imagine that at all. The hypothetical roster resulting from the proposal that started this thread is clearly stronger than what they had this year.

Can I imagine them as contenders in '07-'08 and beyond, with a financially strapped roster that has five big contracts and nowhere near enough quality depth? Not really. But that is the destiny of the "keep this team together" option.

I'm for keeping the team for this year, but I think it would also be wise to look into trades this summer that keep us out of the contact squeeze that will come. I think trading Marion could provide some depth that this team really needs. If we have more reliable depth off the bench and we get a few players for Marion and some cap help, it will really help the team.

My concern is with Amare. I think he will be fine, but if he can't come back or gets injured, his contract will be a headache.

If marion gets us some depth, I'd say move him.

 

[boisesuns]

To add, I think a Mid-Season trade might be a good option as well.

 

[CaptainInsano]

Hmm im not very smart on all this but what options do we have here to try and keep the team of Tim Thomas, Marion, Amare, Nash, Barbosa, Diaw, and Bell together? That is obviously a solid 7 man rotation for the playoffs.

After this upcoming year:

Eisleys contract goes from 4.4 to 2.2 mil right?

Lose eddie house, Pat burke, Brian Grant = how much $

Send the picks to the development league

Trade James Jones

and/or Kurt Thomas?

With Those above options is it even close to feasible to keep the team together the next 2 years salary wise?

 

[elindholm]

What 5 big contracts? There are will only be 4 unless you're counting KT and if it was between keeping KT or Marion I'd take Marion.

Yes, I was counting Kurt Thomas. The Suns won't be able to trade him for additional assets. His value is much lower than Marion's. It's not just a question of who will you eliminate from the team, but also one of who you get to add.

Hypothetically would you prefer the Suns to win the championship next year and worry about financial implications after or do you want to break up the team to field a team that won't be as good but may be together longer. I'd take the championship team personally, the Suns have had enough playoff runs without winning it for my taste.

I absolutely agree. If the Suns win the title next year, I barely care what happens after that. But it's not like next year's title is a sure thing, by any means. If there's a way to keep the team approximately as good for next year, while also putting them in much better position for the future, then that seems like the way to go.

 

[CaptainInsano]

*edited

Damn I just added it all up for 2007/2008 and with basically the players I listed before (Tim Thomas, Marion, Amare, Nash, Barbosa, Diaw, and Bell) if barbs and tim get a 25 million like raja, and diaw gets a somewhere around a 45-50 million 5 year.

70 milllion with basically no one else but the players I listed on the team.

We basically are going to need to trade Kurt Thomas (and possibly even James Jones) next year.

 

[CaptainInsano]

This actually isn't all that bad, kurts salary for what he does is a whallop something slightly above 8 million during 2007/2008 so if we trade him that gives us 62 million a little room to sign next years picks and we would have a solid 7 man rotation I listed above for the season and playoffs.

If the salary cap is 65 million in 2007/2008 then we have room to keep james jones or try someone else out, otherwise if it is 64 million then we will be right there.

*edit:

And personally I don't think it would be that bad to ask for something like 25 million/6 years from barbosa and 5 years 20 million from tim thomas, that way we can save some extra dough and have a little money to play with on picks and keeping james jones to see if he can do anything.

*edit #1 billion: how about 25/6 years barbs, 50/6 years diaw, and 15/4 years Tim thomas. Trade kurt and make these signings and in 2007/2008 with even a 63 million luxury cap then I think we even have 3-4 million to work with after the 7 players are all on contracts if I am correct.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The easiest place to get a look at it all is here,

http://www.hoopshype.com/salaries/phoenix.htm

We can keep everyone together this year, sans Thomas. But with Amare coming back Thomas' role will be much less anyway. We can keep Thomas if we trade Jones, and develop picks in Europe.

The next year, Eisley comes off completely, and we will likely deal KT. He will be an expiring contract anyway. If we deal KT this summer, then keeping TT is cake. There are teams that would love to take KT for nothing, and nothing is really what we would want for him.

We probably need to deal House this summer regardless, so that clears a little space.

We've got a little negotiating to do over the next three years, then Marion's deal finishes after 08-09.

The real key will be how negotiations go with Diaw and Barbosa this summer. If we can get Barbosa in starting at 5-6 million, and Diaw for $8-9 million, we'll be able to work with that.

I know everyone will say "no, Diaw is going to command 10+" but I am not sure. He has half a year at this production. He did it with Nash. He will get less touches next year with Amare and KT back. Who knows? We'll see this summer.

You just can't know what will happen too much in the future. You have to stay as flexible as possible and make year-by-year adjustments.