Suns Offseason Trade Speculation Thread

[Gaddabout]

Eric, that trade is definitely inspired. It answers a lot of questions and brings automatic depth to the team. Maurice Williams is a former Mickey D's AA, a very good athlete at the point, although he's not the guy I think you want handling the ball in the halfcourt.

Joe Smith is what he is ... an underachiever. But at least you know he fits offensively in the scheme. Same goes for Villanueva. None of those guys can replace the speed and tenacity of Marion, but the bring some different things Marion doesn't have.

Honestly, though, do the Suns bother with Tim Thomas with Villanueva and Smith on the roster? That seems very redundant to me.

 

[Gaddabout]

Could someone please give a link where Sarver stated that there is no way that he will pay the luxury tax?

Sarver has stated repeatedly he will refuse to operate the team like Mark Cuban and Paul Allen. He has investors to answer to, and he said he takes pride in being successful while being frugal. He has more or less stated he wants to show the rest of the NBA how it should be done. He believes the team should show a profit at the end of each season -- or at least not lose a lot of money.

A little insight into the other primary investors Sarver's dealing with:

Late in the regular season, during a halftime show, a man had the opportunity to win a big money prize for hitting a halftime shot. He missed, but it was close, so Sarver (caught up in the excitment of the game) sent the Gorilla out there to shoot for the man -- a second chance. The Gorilla turned has back to the basket, threw up a hopeless prayer and sunk it.

The crowd went crazy and it was played on ESPN. Great advertising for the Suns, right? Well, the other owners were miffed at Sarver for throwing away ~ $70,000 to the man (they told him he was "very irresponsible"), so Sarver had to cut the check from his own personal account.

Sarver is a proud man, but if it came down to winning a championship and paying a couple million in luxury tax, I think he would personally do it with his own money. It might mean maybe breaking even for the year, but I believe he'd be OK with that if he thought he could hang that banner in his arena. But I also know he has made promises and preached ad nauseum to the media and his investors about his fiduciary responsibility and his management style.

After Game 6, I've been told the Suns will show a net profit of about $7.5 million. In the NBA, that doesn't leave much margin for error. Under the current salary structure, this team basically has to play five playoff home games to show a profit.

 

[Kolo]

In a recent article he said he'd never under any circumstances pay the luxury tax, but as a mid-market franchise it's not something he wants to do (or something to that effect). But I do recall him suggesting he would pay the tax under certain circumstances. Whether that's both to keep Kurt Thomas and sign Tim Thomas, I have no clue.

 

[elindholm]

Joe Smith is what he is ... an underachiever. But at least you know he fits offensively in the scheme.

I was thinking of Smith more for depth than anything else. He has an expiring contract and probably wouldn't be around after next summer. Basically, Diaw's extension would replace his salary.

As far as Villanueva goes, who knows. He's the centerpiece of the deal as far as the Suns are concerned, so they'd have to be pretty high on him. He was second or third (?) in the ROY voting and showed great flashes, but he was also very inconsistent.

None of those guys can replace the speed and tenacity of Marion, but the bring some different things Marion doesn't have.

Marion is a very good player and the Suns aren't likely to find anyone to replace him adequately. But the reality is that the Suns won't be able to have much depth if they have five large contracts on the roster simultaneously (Marion, Stoudemire, Nash, K. Thomas, Diaw). If the Suns wait until next summer to bite the bullet and make a salary-cutting trade, it will be harder for them to get a decent deal, because all other teams will know that they have the Suns over a barrel.

Honestly, though, do the Suns bother with Tim Thomas with Villanueva and Smith on the roster? That seems very redundant to me.

Thomas is a much better outside shooter than either of them (Smith really isn't a perimeter threat at all), but I agree that he would most likely be gone in this scenario.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I doubt that TOR would trade Villaneuva for two mid 1st rounders (since I think that Magloire's and Peterson's value are close to each other).

Could someone please give a link where Sarver stated that there is no way that he will pay the luxury tax?

This article is the best I could find on Sarver's opinions on the Lux Tax. There is no NEVER in the article, but alot reasons why he is not interested in making big mistakes in player contracts.

Sarver likes course franchise has taken


Paul Coro
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 3, 2006 12:00 AM

The Suns franchise is enjoying the financial injection of an 11th home playoff game tonight.

Phoenix's top players with contract issues to resolve this year - Leandro Barbosa (extension negotiation), Boris Diaw (extension negotiation) and Tim Thomas (free agent) - all have expressed interest in staying with the Suns and seem willing to negotiate with a reciprocal appreciation.

Does one feed the other? You never know, Suns Managing Partner Robert Sarver said repeatedly. It's the hesitant residue of last summer's crash-and-burn talks with Joe Johnson, which led to a sign-and-trade deal that fortuitously brought Diaw and two first-round picks to Phoenix.
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Sarver has sat with Diaw's agent for games, dealt with Barbosa's agent for Steve Nash's contract and had experience at the other end with Thomas' agent, also Johnson's.

"It's been successful for those players here," Sarver said. "Phoenix has been a good environment for them. But I thought Phoenix was a good environment for Joe Johnson, too, and that wasn't worth a nickel.

"I'm not sure I have the patience to deal with some of the agents, the ones that are jerks. I think I learned from last year."

Sarver said the club needed this playoff success after adding $10 million to payroll for this season while only getting a $7 million boost in ticket revenue. He said the league takes 45 percent of his playoff gate.

He credits team executives Lynn Agnello, John Walker and Rick Welts for capitalizing on the team's success to increase sponsorship about 25 percent. The problem is that leaves little room to go other than the owners' pockets now that ticket prices and attendance have been spiked and a historically strong marketing presence was further bolstered.

"To me, the future is more exciting because we've got great pieces," Sarver said. "We're going to be in good shape for a long while."

The Suns' projected payroll, with two guaranteed contracts to give for first-round picks, would be $61 million if Phoenix remained status quo. That would fall short of an estimated $63 million luxury tax for 2006-07, when only one team (likely New York) is expected to have to pay it, according to Sarver. He said seven or eight teams would pay it this year.

He is leery of breaking into the dollar-for-dollar penalty because he said it becomes a triple penalty when the Suns become a team not getting money back from taxed teams.

"I wouldn't say I'm definitely never going to pay luxury tax but I think it's pretty hard for a team in our market to be at the tax level," Sarver said.

He said he is becoming more comfortable with being involved with basketball operations but still will defer to the staff he entrusted with greater responsibilities when Bryan Colangelo left. Mike D'Antoni, David Griffin and Mark West run the basketball office.

Sarver has implored them to keep to a plan of having player contracts that are marketable in case changes are needed. It rankles him that he is still paying Howard Eisley $4.4 million this year and $2.2 million next year as part of the deal that dumped Penny Hardaway's contract on New York.

"There is no easy fix to big mistakes," Sarver said.

There are only four Suns players, including Amaré Stoudemire, who have been on the roster for both conference finalists of the past two years. Phoenix figures not to be made over so drastically again but . . .

"Continuity is important but it's not as important as winning and our goal to win a championship and have sustained success," Sarver said. "I think we've done it the right way."


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[ARZCardinals]

Anyone thinking of trading Marion IS ********!!!

Flat and simple...he's been the glue of this team.

so many idiots so much time....trading Marion....fools.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So here is the translation.

Robert Sarver will be willing to go over the salary cap IF and only IF it makes fiscal sense to do so. That means that he is convinced that doing so will bring a championship, allowing the team to raise ticket prices and increase advertising revenue. Or, the player that comes in as a result of going over the cap is of a status that will increase team revenue (LeBron, KG, etc).

Even then, the contract offer has to be worth the risk. No more big-time deals on a gamble that a gimpy player will regain health.

 

[DevonCardsFan]

Until I word really starts to swirl in the media that Marion is on the block, I will not respond to any Marion trade rumors/proposals.

Exactly I beliece D'Antoni when he says he is not shaking this team up, only big move I see the Suns doing is adding a back up PG

 

[Chaplin]

So here is the translation.

Robert Sarver will be willing to go over the salary cap IF and only IF it makes fiscal sense to do so. That means that he is convinced that doing so will bring a championship, allowing the team to raise ticket prices and increase advertising revenue. Or, the player that comes in as a result of going over the cap is of a status that will increase team revenue (LeBron, KG, etc).

Even then, the contract offer has to be worth the risk. No more big-time deals on a gamble that a gimpy player will regain health.

That's what I get as well.

But how can people fault him for it? This is one of the bigger issues with the Sarver-haters.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Based on what he said in this article, Sarver must be much more concerned about Amare's deal than Shawn's.

Shawns is half-way done. Amare's hasn't started.
Shawn is nearly always healthy. Amare has had an injury that is potentially career threatening (and chronic).

Amare's upside is huge though.

My guess: The moment that Sarver is no longer confident in Amare's ability to come back completely from this surgery, Sarver will trade him.

Sarver is not the high-stakes gambler that JC was.

 

[JCSunsfan]

That's what I get as well.

But how can people fault him for it? This is one of the bigger issues with the Sarver-haters.

So, with Sarver we will never become the Knicks, but we will be in danger of becoming the Clips.

Hopefully, it will be some reasonable place in the middle.

 

[Treesquid PhD]

Based on what he said in this article, Sarver must be much more concerned about Amare's deal than Shawn's.

Shawns is half-way done. Amare's hasn't started.
Shawn is nearly always healthy. Amare has had an injury that is potentially career threatening (and chronic).

Amare's upside is huge though.

My guess: The moment that Sarver is no longer confident in Amare's ability to come back completely from this surgery, Sarver will trade him.

Sarver is not the high-stakes gambler that JC was.

That's not the impression I get from Sarver. Everytime I have listened to foamy he always seems to reiterate how this team is bult around Amare, how Amare is the key to championships. That doesn't fit your guess at all.

Having said that, I don't think Marion is going anywhere, the Suns view him as low maintenance and top 15 NBA talent. I am pretty sure they would want more back than marginal role players none who really help the Suns other than maybe Williams as a back up. I do think that 21 pick is as good as gone though.

 

[elindholm]

My guess: The moment that Sarver is no longer confident in Amare's ability to come back completely from this surgery, Sarver will trade him.

Sarver has to approve contracts, but he can't trade anyone.

 

[JCSunsfan]

That's not the impression I get from Sarver. Everytime I have listened to foamy he always seems to reiterate how this team is bult around Amare, how Amare is the key to championships. That doesn't fit your guess at all.

From what I can tell, Sarver still believes Amare will return healthy and to his former playing level. His comments about Amare indicate that is what he believes. He also knows that Amare has a huge ego, and so Sarver is taking care of business on that level.

But, he has also clearly indicated a philosophy of doing business that says that he will not allow himself to become saddled with bad contracts.

So, it is only logical to conclude, that if he becomes convinced that Amare will not be able to perform up to expectations, he will deal him--before the player become untradeable.

I never said that he is PLANNING to do it, just a prediction of what he would do if a certain set of circumstances occurs in the future.

 

[JCSunsfan]

My guess: The moment that Sarver is no longer confident in Amare's ability to come back completely from this surgery, Sarver will trade him.

Sarver has to approve contracts, but he can't trade anyone.

??? Isn't he the owner? Are you saying that DAntoni can veto a Sarver trade demand?

 

[Gaddabout]

That's not the impression I get from Sarver. Everytime I have listened to foamy he always seems to reiterate how this team is bult around Amare, how Amare is the key to championships. That doesn't fit your guess at all.

Having said that, I don't think Marion is going anywhere, the Suns view him as low maintenance and top 15 NBA talent. I am pretty sure they would want more back than marginal role players none who really help the Suns other than maybe Williams as a back up. I do think that 21 pick is as good as gone though.

FWIW, Villanueva is no marginal role player. He's 6-11/240 and drew some comparisons to Lamar Odom. He's a 4/5 with a small forward game and athleticism. If were looking at rookies from last year who could potentially blow up in the Suns system, he would probably be #2 behind Chris Paul.

 

[The Commish]

I know there are some people that shreek like little girls when they hear of any possible trades involving the Matrix. Believe me I don't want to give him up either, but the realities of the situation are pretty clear. Marion is a max player that disappears in the playoffs. With Amare's contract kicking in next year combined with Nash, our team salary numbers are going to get pretty big. I don't think he will be traded this summer, but in reality he will be traded before next summer. We need to resign Diaw and probably Barbosa. Neither of which will come cheap. This is when you get into the business side of sports. Its ugly and one thing that fans can never be happy with.

Consider this though: Small forwards are the most replaceable position in the NBA, especially in our system. Lets look at the other great SF's in the league:

Ron Artest
Carmelo Anthony
Vince Carter
Josh Howard
Lebron James
Andre Kirilenko
Rashard Lewis
Corey Maggette
Tracy McGrady
Lamar Odom
Tayshaun Prince
Michael Redd
Peja Stojakovic

Not to mention the young up and comers:

Andre Igoudala
Danny Granger
Luol Deng
Andres Nocioni
Gerald Green

There are plenty of good SF's out there. If we got rid of Marion it wouldn't be the end of the world guys. While I am of the mindset of if it aint broke don't fix it, there are a couple plausible scenarios out that would make me happy:

Shawn Marion
#21 Pick(possibly an additional pick)

for

Charlie Villanueva
#1 Pick


or

Shawn Marion
#21 Pick (possibly an additional pick)

for

Brevin Knight
#3 Pick



Both Charlotte and Toronto will be under the cap next year so we don't have to match salaries. The only way I would trade Shawn is in one of these scenarios. If you could trade him and replace him with a guy like Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy or Tyrus Thomas I don't think we would take much of a step back. Not to mention we still have Atlanta's pick for next year. Everyone including myself about jumped off a building when we traded away Joe and Q. We all thought that we wouldn not be able to hit as many 3's. Our system along with Steve Nash proved that theory wrong.

We will have a lot of picks the next two years in which we can get another good SF. I just don't understand why people get so pissed off when the discussion of trading Marion comes up. After all what happens to Shawn when he loses some of his athleticism? He doesn't have much of a shot to fall back on. All I ask is that some of you consider possibility of trading Shawn. We could get younger and be in a much better financial situation for years to come.

 

[Gaddabout]

??? Isn't he the owner? Are you saying that DAntoni can veto a Sarver trade demand?

No, he's saying Sarver can't pick up the phone and call another GM to initiate a trade. Sarver's not going to force his basketball opinion on the staff, but he can put a stop to any trade that doesn't make financial sense to him.

 

[elindholm]

??? Isn't he the owner? Are you saying that DAntoni can veto a Sarver trade demand?

He's the managing general partner, not "the" owner. He has hired a basketball-knowledgable GM for a reason. Now, maybe the point will come when he thinks he needs to run the show all by himself, but so far, we haven't seen any sign of that. And it would be very stupid.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

FWIW, Villanueva is no marginal role player. He's 6-11/240 and drew some comparisons to Lamar Odom. He's a 4/5 with a small forward game and athleticism. If were looking at rookies from last year who could potentially blow up in the Suns system, he would probably be #2 behind Chris Paul.

Yeah, but Villanueva has no eyebrows. I can't support him being on our team....

 

[elindholm]

Believe me I don't want to give him up either, but the realities of the situation are pretty clear.

One would think so.

Shawn Marion
#21 Pick (possibly an additional pick)

for

Brevin Knight
#3 Pick

I think it's realistic to consider ways that Marion might be traded this summer, but this scenario is awful. The Suns are competing for a championship right now. If Marion is traded, it has to be for one or more players who will provide immediate help toward that goal. Knight would play 15 minutes per game, and the #3 pick is going to be a "prospect."

The first proposal would be okay if the Suns had a sure thing they really liked at #1, but chances are if there's anyone they like that much, Jerry Colangelo likes him too (considering he was with the Suns just a few months ago).

 

[SunsTzu]

Consider this though: Small forwards are the most replaceable position in the NBA, especially in our system. Lets look at the other great SF's in the league:

Ron Artest
Carmelo Anthony
Vince Carter
Josh Howard
Lebron James
Andre Kirilenko
Rashard Lewis
Corey Maggette
Tracy McGrady
Lamar Odom
Tayshaun Prince
Michael Redd
Peja Stojakovic

Not to mention the young up and comers:

Andre Igoudala
Danny Granger
Luol Deng
Andres Nocioni
Gerald Green

That young up and comer Andres Nocioni is one year younger than Marion. You can play max contract Redd(who is a bigger disapearing act in the playoffs than Marion) at SF, but I think just about anyone who has seen him play would agreee he's a SG. Peja and Artest are also playoff chokers.

All those guys who have been in the league a few years are also making a ton of money and listing them just makes it seem like Marion isn't as overpaid as some think.

 

[Gaddabout]

Shawn Marion
#21 Pick(possibly an additional pick)
for
Charlie Villanueva
#1 Pick

or

Shawn Marion
#21 Pick (possibly an additional pick)
for
Brevin Knight
#3 Pick

The first trade makes some sense for the Suns, but I don't think that's nearly enough for Toronto. I think they'll want another player (Barbs), not another conditional pick. And I think that's too much for Villi and the No. 1.

The second trade makes no sense for the Suns and I'm not sure Charlotte wants a veteran forward -- even one of Marion's caliber -- and I really doubt they want his salary.

 

[elindholm]

All those guys who have been in the league a few years are also making a ton of money and listing them just makes it seem like Marion isn't as overpaid as some think.

Right, exactly. He has decent trade value. The problem isn't that he's horribly overpaid (he isn't, although he is mildly overpaid) or a playoff choker (he isn't, even though he underperforms somewhat). The problem is that the Suns are in a position where they will soon need to spend their money in other ways.

 

[SunsTzu]

Right, exactly. He has decent trade value. The problem isn't that he's horribly overpaid (he isn't, although he is mildly overpaid) or a playoff choker (he isn't, even though he underperforms somewhat). The problem is that the Suns are in a position where they will soon need to spend their money in other ways.

I agree to some extent, and I'm not completely against trading Marion. I think I'd prefer to atleast make one run with the roster before a major shake-up though.