The Atlanta Pick is starting to look really scary for us

[cardsunsfan]

I know a lot of you guys wanted us to be in the fourth position but I think that's too close for comfort. It looks like now Atlanta has a very good chance of being in third. Atanta has played three games more than Milwaukee, so if they want to tank the end of the season they have the inside track. Most teams say they don't do that, and alot I believe.

I think Atlanta will tank the season though. There really is no reason not too and I bet the fans expect it after trading away their pic for Johnson. It would be even more embarassing for them and hurt team morale even more if they don't get in the top three.

 

[TheHopToad]

Even if they finish with the third worst record, they could always get bumped to the #4 pick when the ping-pong balls drop. Usually somebody always moves up into the top three from the rest of the lottery teams. Atlanta is not going to catch Boston or Memphis.

 

[tobiazz]

I prefer them to be closer to the worst record than the 10th worst. If they are at, say the 6th position, then we either get the 6-9th, or no pick. If they are at the 3rd position, then we either get the 4-6th, or no pick. I'll take the increased chance of no pick to get a higher pick.

If they end up at the 3rd spot, the Suns will have a ~60% of keeping the pick. Not great, but the 5th spot will only give them ~75% of keeping the pick so I'll trade the 15% for a chance at 2 spots higher in the draft.

 

[Lefty]

Looking at Atlanta's remaining schedule, I can see them winning maybe three more games.

 

[AZBALLER]

I think Atlanta will tank the season though. There really is no reason not too and I bet the fans expect it after trading away their pic for Johnson. It would be even more embarassing for them and hurt team morale even more if they don't get in the top three.

I dissagree...I think young players want to be "the man" ala JJ. They don't tank seasons, they try to kick a$$. Hence their record since the jj injury...

 

[pokerface]

Yeah its getting really scary...we might end up with the 4th pick which has to scare a lot of Hawks fans.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

It is possible that Atlanta will have the third worst record in basketball and have zero draft picks.

They own Indiana's but that is top 10 protected. Their own pick goes to us if it isn't in the top 3 and they traded away their second round pick which will be very high for a backup PG.

Plus, because they acquired that PG they are too close to the cap to do anything but Mid level exception.

Billy Knight really is the worst GM in pro sports.

 

[Divide Et Impera]

If ATL gets the #3, I hope like hell that Oden and Durant stay in school. How funny would that be?

 

[fordronken]

I really would like to see Atlanta win more games. I'd rather have the tenth pick this year than hope the Hawks do even worse next year.

 

[Joe Mama]

It is possible that Atlanta will have the third worst record in basketball and have zero draft picks.

They own Indiana's but that is top 10 protected. Their own pick goes to us if it isn't in the top 3 and they traded away their second round pick which will be very high for a backup PG.

Plus, because they acquired that PG they are too close to the cap to do anything but Mid level exception.

Billy Knight really is the worst GM in pro sports.

I can appreciate the ineptitude of Billy Knight, but there isn't a general manager in sports that comes close to being as bad as Isaiah Thomas. He might be the worst in the last 25 years.

Joe Mama

 

[asudevil83]

just a couple of days, Atlanta's pick was #7....now its back down to #4. there are so many variables that play out in the next few weeks that you can't really pay any attention until the last week of the season.

 

[myrondizzo]

i'm hoping for the 9th pick we draft well there and we are very likely to get the pick.

 

[F-Dog]

You guys are crazy.

This is the best draft since 2003, right? If the Suns had the 4th pick that year, they'd have had their pick between Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Think about adding one of those players to the current Suns team.

At #10, they'd have chosen either Nick Collison or Luke Ridnour. Are you guys so risk-averse that you'd rather have a 70% chance at column B than a 40% chance at column A?



At #10 this year, it's an open question IMO whether the Suns even keep their pick. I don't see anybody in the late-lottery area who would naturally appeal to D'Antoni et al.

 

[pokerface]

[/B]. Are you guys so risk-averse that you'd rather have a 70% chance at column B than a 40% chance at column A?

Right on! No guts no glory. I'd rather roll the dice even if the Hawks had the 3rd wost record and hope they drop down versus getting the pick in 7-10 range.

 

[fordronken]

You guys are crazy.

This is the best draft since 2003, right? If the Suns had the 4th pick that year, they'd have had their pick between Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Think about adding one of those players to the current Suns team.

At #10, they'd have chosen either Nick Collison or Luke Ridnour. Are you guys so risk-averse that you'd rather have a 70% chance at column B than a 40% chance at column A?



At #10 this year, it's an open question IMO whether the Suns even keep their pick. I don't see anybody in the late-lottery area who would naturally appeal to D'Antoni et al.

Gimme a break. It's a huge gamble to wait until next year. Remember the Chicago situation? I think that Atlanta will be a playoff team next year, especially if they get a top three pick this year.

 

[F-Dog]

Gimme a break. It's a huge gamble to wait until next year. Remember the Chicago situation? I think that Atlanta will be a playoff team next year, especially if they get a top three pick this year.

I wasn't talking about next year; in fact, none of the things you say here have the slightest impact on my argument. I'm honestly not sure why you quoted my post.


What I said was, even if the Suns get nothing at all next year, they're better off if the Hawks lose as many games as possible.

 

[pokerface]

Gimme a break. It's a huge gamble to wait until next year. Remember the Chicago situation? I think that Atlanta will be a playoff team next year, especially if they get a top three pick this year.

Oh jeesh. Its not like we got a choice in the matter...its going to play out on its own regardless what any of us think. Its just some of us would rather shoot for the stars then to play all safe like. Plus like stated prior I'd rather have a 40% chance of something really good than a 70% chance of something mediocre. Also, the lower the pick you get the more gamble you encounter with it anyway....so you gamble one way or the other whether you want to or not.

 

[Covert Rain]

I just heard Gambo talking about this very topic. He said that according to Suns officials they are OK with the pick being somewhere around 10 because they are willing to package it if needed to move up.

This is great news. That means that there is someone that the Suns want very bad in the draft. That also means the Suns are going to be aggressive to move up if need be. This draft is going to be very interesting for the Suns.

 

[F-Dog]

I just heard Gambo talking about this very topic. He said that according to Suns officials they are OK with the pick being somewhere around 10 because they are willing to package it if needed to move up.

What's the rest of the package? Barbosa?

Given the success the Suns have had reading the draft recently, I'm sure you'll forgive me if I'm less than enthused by their (supposed) confidence.

 

[asudevil83]

I just heard Gambo talking about this very topic. He said that according to Suns officials they are OK with the pick being somewhere around 10 because they are willing to package it if needed to move up.

This is great news. That means that there is someone that the Suns want very bad in the draft. That also means the Suns are going to be aggressive to move up if need be. This draft is going to be very interesting for the Suns.

chances are that they are looking at Noah.

if Noah ended up being a Camby-like player i would have no problem with that. if he ends up being a shell of that, which i see as entirely possible, then ouch.

You guys are crazy.

This is the best draft since 2003, right? If the Suns had the 4th pick that year, they'd have had their pick between Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Think about adding one of those players to the current Suns team.

At #10, they'd have chosen either Nick Collison or Luke Ridnour. Are you guys so risk-averse that you'd rather have a 70% chance at column B than a 40% chance at column A?

ah yes....but they would have also had the opportunity to draft Darko or Kaman.

and at the #10 slot, well you would have had your choices of Sweetney or Banks or Gaines or Hayes.

out of the top 10 in the draft there is pretty much a 30% chance of ending up with a guy who doesnt deserve his drafting spot.

98 - Kandi, LaFrentz, Traylor, Jason Williams
99 - Bender
00 - Swift, Fizer, Dermarr, Dooling
01 - Kwame, Battier, Eddie Griffin, Diop, Rodney White
02 - Dunleavy, Gooden, Tskita, Wagner
03 - Darko, Kaman, Sweetney
04 - Harris, Araujo, Luke Jackson
05 - Webster, Frye, Diogu (granted its too early to make that claim yet)

and with the suns lack in scouting (present last draft), they could easily make this type of mistake.

 

[pokerface]

There are a couple positives that people need to look at as to get off the gloom and doom....

1) Most of us will agree that Atlanta can do no "better" than to have the 3rd worst record in the NBA. They have very little to almost no chance of having the second or worst record. So at minimum the Suns have a 40% chance of getting that pick.....thats not so bad. Its would be far far worse if the Hawks had one of the top two picks because then their chance of collecting on that pick would be much greater.

2) The Hawks have a realitively weak schedule in April. They play Boston, the Bucks a couple times, Philly, an the Pacers. The Nets, Bulls, and Cavs are tougher but beatable. So I'm glad Atlanta has been losing lately as to have a "cushion" against possible wins next month. I think how they do against the Bucks in particular will tell a lot in how their final standings will be since the Bucks are a close rival to them right now.

My gut feeling is we don't have much to worry about with the Hawks breaking the top three. I think there is a 70% chance that their final standings will be #4 or #5 recordwise. I think only if they lost to the Bucks both times and Philly is there a chance of them of cracking the top three.

 

[ma_falaa_50]

first off, andre is not a bust. he wasnt contributing because philly's offense was centered around AI. I have seen Iggy play when I went to U of A and at times he can play timid but they was he has played with without AI is a fluke. Look at Webber- he was good with sac town and good with detriot but not with philly. y? AI.

second, I think atlanta will prolly get 4th worst record. lets look at the competition-grizzles- they have been sucking all season I dnt think they can turn it on now. Boston-paul pierce is out for the season. bobcats? they may get into a hot streak- well lets hope not. Bucks- They are playing better but loosing villenueva and bogut to injuries will get to you. I think only philly will get better and better of all this clubs.

the thing thats bad is al horford is like 3rd best prospect, if durant and oden leave. Oden may not leave. I think the suns are emphasizing too much on this draft. they have the talent to go all the way if they play like it.

if they are going to try to move up- dantoni isnt going to trade Barbosa, nash, amare, shawn, and for some odd reason diaw. Kurt maybe traded but he is more helpful than diaw. diaw is a better talent but Kurt plays with effort evrytime.

 

[asudevil83]

first off, andre is not a bust. he wasnt contributing because philly's offense was centered around AI. I have seen Iggy play when I went to U of A and at times he can play timid but they was he has played with without AI is a fluke. Look at Webber- he was good with sac town and good with detriot but not with philly. y? AI.

haha....wow, huge brain fart on that one. saw I. Diogu, read Ike Diogu.....typed Igoudala.

Igoudala is most definately NOT a bust. would have LOVED to have him on this team.

 

[ma_falaa_50]

Now Diogu is a bust. the thing Phx media was raving about him was his excellent footwork when I saw him play in person- all I saw was travel violations that the refs forgot to call.

 

[azirish]

I'm not sure if Ike Diogu is a bust (injuries and team styles can have a big effect), but there is little doubt that he was a serious reach taken so high.

It does not look like he's fitting in with the Pacers, who have a lot of PF's. I would think a deal which sent Banks and the third pick for Diogu might work for both teams. Banks can't shoot, but then neither than Tinsley and at least Banks is healthy and plays good D.

At worst, getting Ike would be salary dump, but he might become a KT type tough guy who can shoot. I think it would be worth a late first round pick.