The Atlanta Pick is starting to look really scary for us

[asudevil83]

well the hawks play the bucks twice more, and the bobcats once more. these games will probably decide the outcome of the standings at the end of the season. we just have to see who wants to lose more.

 

[Mainstreet]

If I were dantoni I would pick whomever is the most talented player left on the board and be more open to drafting other players rather than be infatuated with one certain player.

I can agree with this portion of your post, especially if the Suns do not get the Atlanta pick this year. I just do not want to hear that the Suns did not see any players left on the board worthy of drafting with their last two first round picks.

 

[JCSunsfan]

The biggest nightmare for Atlanta might be to wind up with the #3 pick. I am not sure the player taken at that spot will make them much better, and there is a very good chance they would absolutely blow that choice.

Atlanta brass have been repeatedly saying that what they need now is vet leadership--especially a vet pg. Sam Cassell would make more difference for that team than any player taken at the #3 (in the short term).

That would leave us an unprotected pick for next year. I'd still rather pick in the #4-7 slot this year. "Bird in the hand"

 

[elindholm]

It's unlikely, but I suppose it's possible that if Atlanta gets the #3 pick and can't make up their minds, they'd consider trading it to Phoenix. Phoenix would give back the 2008 pick (of course), one of their later picks in the 2007 draft, and some other compensation. In other words, they'd be changing the protection from "top three" to "top two" on the spur of the moment, with other candies to make up the difference.

The advantage for Atlanta -- again, assuming there's no one they really want at #3 -- is that then they would have their own 2008 pick back and would have more flexibility in making trades during the season.

 

[Cheesebeef]

The biggest nightmare for Atlanta might be to wind up with the #3 pick. I am not sure the player taken at that spot will make them much better, and there is a very good chance they would absolutely blow that choice.

Atlanta brass have been repeatedly saying that what they need now is vet leadership--especially a vet pg. Sam Cassell would make more difference for that team than any player taken at the #3 (in the short term).

That would leave us an unprotected pick for next year. I'd still rather pick in the #4-7 slot this year. "Bird in the hand"

uh, the biggest nightmare for a horrendous Atlanta team, with ZERO interior presence is to somehow hold on to their pick in what's supposed to be the best big man draft in years?

You would think the BEST thing for Atlanta, who is still flush with cap space this year, is to be able to get the #3 pick, take a big and then make a huge run at soon to be FAs Bibby or Chauncy Billups and be able to completely right their ship within one off-season. The above makes it out to seem like getting a vet and getting the #3 pick are mutually exclusive commodities when there's no reason to believe this to be true.

They're probably dying for the third pick, just like everyone else in the lottery (except us).

 

[Gaddabout]

I don't follow college basketball, but my hunch is that Oden is staying in school. Just a gut feeling, based on what I've read about his personality and development.

That's exactly my read on it, too. He's not like Noah -- wealthy parents -- but you almost wonder if he will ever be confident in his game to be an effective pro. He sounds intimated.

 

[JoRain]

uh, the biggest nightmare for a horrendous Atlanta team, with ZERO interior presence is to somehow hold on to their pick in what's supposed to be the best big man draft in years?

You would think the BEST thing for Atlanta, who is still flush with cap space this year, is to be able to get the #3 pick, take a big and then make a huge run at soon to be FAs Bibby or Chauncy Billups and be able to completely right their ship within one off-season. The above makes it out to seem like getting a vet and getting the #3 pick are mutually exclusive commodities when there's no reason to believe this to be true.

They're probably dying for the third pick, just like everyone else in the lottery (except us).

and don't forget, that Hawks own also the Pacers 1 rounder from Al Harrington trade. It's top 10 protected thou

 

[Treesquid PhD]

That's exactly my read on it, too. He's not like Noah -- wealthy parents -- but you almost wonder if he will ever be confident in his game to be an effective pro. He sounds intimated.

I think once the emotion of the college season wears off, Oden will go pro.

 

[Ballamania]

i think the suns will probably end up with the 4th pick. boston is 3 1/2 back memphis wont be caught and milwaukee is 1 1/2 back. i think it will be close but atlanta will be one game better than those three at the end. then the ping pong balls are a whole other issue so wait, what the hell do i know. i want that 4th though.

 

[Covert Rain]

Atlanta needs to win a few more here to stay out of the top 3. Anything in the top 10 will do since the Suns have hinted they are willing to put a package together to trade down if need be.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Hawks lost and the Bucks won tonight. Ugh.

 

[pokerface]

I posted this on the drafts thread but I guess its more appropiate here....

Friday is crucial to determining the value of the pick. The Hawks are in a good position right now...they are fourth with breathing room below them as well as above them...only the Bucks are similar to their record (a half game above in the lottery standings) and they are due to play each other Friday. Lets hope the Hawks win that one to soldiify their fourth position and not move up to third.

 

[pokerface]

Hawks lost and the Bucks won tonight. Ugh.

I'd rather the Bucks lost of course but the minor bright side to that is it makes the Celtics more unreachable for the Hawks to catch.

Lets just hope the Hawks beat the Bucks on Friday....

 

[dcsunsfan]

Using last year's draft probability table, we're actually better off with Atlanta at the third spot in the standings. It's a bit of a sweet spot. According to the table, moving from fourth to third greatly increases the odds of getting the fourth pick (.085 to .238) but doesn't significantly increase the chances of landing a top 3 pick--something moving up to the two spot would do.

Check it out:
http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_probabilities.html

The part I don't understand is why the odds shift from year to year. Does anyone know? e.g. In 2005, moving from fourth to third would make a top three pick much more likely.

EDIT: Wikipedia has the full probability table from last year:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

 

[hsandhu]

Using last year's draft probability table, we're actually better off with Atlanta at the third spot in the standings. It's a bit of a sweet spot. According to the table, moving from fourth to third greatly increases the odds of getting the fourth pick (.085 to .238) but doesn't significantly increase the chances of landing a top 3 pick--something moving up to the two spot would do.

Check it out:
http://www.nba.com/history/lottery_probabilities.html

The part I don't understand is why the odds shift from year to year. Does anyone know? e.g. In 2005, moving from fourth to third would make a top three pick much more likely.

EDIT: Wikipedia has the full probability table from last year:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

Wow, I didnt know that. So if those odds are right, we should actually be rooting for atl to get the 3 spot.

 

[Errntknght]

I believe they changed the ping pong ball count this year (from last year) because of Charlotte. I believe they were given the fourth pick last year without actually being in the lottery. We went through this a few months back... I may even have the table I generated for this years chances.

 

[Errntknght]

Probability (in percent) of a team being in the pre-lottery position given in the left most column, ending in post lottery position 1 thru 8

1 25.0 21.6 17.8 35.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 19.9 18.8 17.1 31.9 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
3 15.6 15.7 15.6 22.6 26.5 4.0 0.0 0.0
4 11.9 12.6 13.3 9.9 35.0 16.0 1.2 0.0
5 8.8 9.7 10.6 0.0 26.2 36.0 8.4 0.4
6 6.3 7.1 8.1 0.0 0.0 44.0 30.4 4.0
7 4.3 4.9 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 23.2
8 2.8 3.3 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.5

 

[Muggum]

Given those numbers, I think I'd like them to come in at #5, pre-lottery. That seems like the best risk-reward spot. #3 is dangerous, and #4 only a bit less so.

 

[pokerface]

Given those numbers, I think I'd like them to come in at #5, pre-lottery. That seems like the best risk-reward spot. #3 is dangerous, and #4 only a bit less so.

By looking at it #5 is only about 3% points less across the board than #4 so thats not so dramatic in my eyes.....its about the same range as #4 is to #3.

I say #4 is still the best spot because if another team jumps ahead of us it only drops us down to fifth pick plus we still have a chance at fourth pick which is optimal for us of course.

 

[devilfan02]

Quick question- If ATL finishes with the 4th worst record, does their pick automatically come to us? Or do we have to wait for the lottery draft no matter where they finish? So even if they finish out of the top-3 but the lottery draft puts them in the top-3, they can get the pick?

Sorry if thats confusing, I got in a argument with my roomate and am trying to prove I'm right

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Quick question- If ATL finishes with the 4th worst record, does their pick automatically come to us? Or do we have to wait for the lottery draft no matter where they finish? So even if they finish out of the top-3 but the lottery draft puts them in the top-3, they can get the pick?

Sorry if thats confusing, I got in a argument with my roomate and am trying to prove I'm right

if the lottery puts them in the top three we have to wait until next year for the pick. hence all the hand wringing about how the ping pong balls are going to drop. their ultimate finish at the end of the season is only part of the battle. the war for the pick is not complete until all the ping pong balls come to rest.

 

[devilfan02]

if the lottery puts them in the top three we have to wait until next year for the pick. hence all the hand wringing about how the ping pong balls are going to drop. their ultimate finish at the end of the season is only part of the battle. the war for the pick is not complete until all the ping pong balls come to rest.

Thanks, that's what I thought. My roomates never right, I love it

 

[devilalum]

The Hawks have way more to gain (or loose) by throwing games than any other team.

This is why I am worried.

 

[elindholm]

The Hawks will be 3rd or 4th in the lottery seedings, almost certainly. They'd have to play very well to move up to fifth, and second is within reach only if Boston wins several more games.

The Suns' chances don't change that much whether the Hawks are 3rd or 4th, so they don't have much incentive to tank. That said, they may not win another game anyway.

 

[fordronken]

If anybody want to work out the Hawks percentage chance of landing a top three pick if they stay at the three or four spot, it'd be appreciated. Elindholm? You like math, right?