The Atlanta Pick is starting to look really scary for us

[pokerface]

I'm no math whiz but I crunched the numbers a different way to show why fourth best record is the best place to be in and ALSO to show a lessor known fact that third worst record is better than fifth worst record.


3rd worst record

odds getting #1, #2 or #3 are 46.9%
odds getting #4 or #5 are 49.1%
odds getting #6 are 4.0%


4th worst record

odds getting #1, #2 or #3 are 37.8%
odds getting #4 or #5 are 60.9%
odds getting #6 are 1.2%


5th worst record

odds getting #1, #2 or #3 are 29.1%
odds getting #4 are 0.0%
odds getting #5, #6 or #7 are 70.6%


So what does this all mean?

Well with the 4th worst record we have a 62% chance of cashing in on that pick....and the picks are real good at the #4 and #5 spots. So we have a better than even chance of getting great picks.

The 3rd worst record isnt so bad because we still have a 53% chance of collecting on the pick....plus if we collect the picks are in a very good range of 4-6 (49% chance of getting #4 or #5). If we have to gamble thats not such a bad place to be in.

Now the 5th worst record I have a problem with. True there is only a 29% chance of cracking the top three with it but the odds arn't so small that it can be discounted. We have ZERO chance of getting the 4th pick which really blows. There is a 62% chance of getting the #5 or #6 which I guess is the safer but not so glamorous road to travel on. Then there is a 8% chance of getting #7 which is not so small it cant be discounted.

I just think by taking on a little additional risk the rewards are so much greater with the 3rd worst record than the 5th worst record. 4th worst record is best of both worlds IMO.

 

[elindholm]

If anybody want to work out the Hawks percentage chance of landing a top three pick if they stay at the three or four spot, it'd be appreciated. Elindholm? You like math, right?

I don't like it that much... but Errntknght just posted the numbers in another thread, last night or this morning.

Edit: Actually it's this thread, post #67.

 

[Errntknght]

The team that finishes in the third spot has a 46.9 % chance of ending 1-3 after the lottery. Fourth slot has a 37.8 % chance of ending 1-3 after the lottery.

 

[Folster]

I need to prepare myself now and assume that the Suns are not going to get the Atl. pick this year.

 

[tobiazz]

I need to prepare myself now and assume that the Suns are not going to get the Atl. pick this year.

Yes, we all do.

 

[pokerface]

Yes, we all do.

Not me! I'm assuming we get it....the odds are in our favor!

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Not me! I'm assuming we get it....the odds are in our favor!

yeah, and we had 50-50 shots at kareem abdul jabbar (lew alcindor) and david robinson and ended up with neal walk and armen gilliam. don't talk to me about odds . . . this is the suns.

 

[Cheesebeef]

yeah, and we had 50-50 shots at kareem abdul jabbar (lew alcindor) and david robinson and ended up with neal walk and armen gilliam. don't talk to me about odds . . . this is the suns.

good lord above - could you have two bigger superstars with two bigger wastes of space behind them? Anyone know who the 3rd pick of the those drafts were? I've always wondered who we didn't take to draft Walk and The Hammer.

 

[Nasser22]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Looking for the other one but here's the Robinson draft.
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
1987 DRAFT[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]

First Round
1 SA David Robinson Navy
2 Phoe Armon Gilliam Nevada-Las Vegas
3 NJ Dennis Hopson Ohio State
4 LAC Reggie Williams Georgetown
5 Sea Scottie Pippen Central Arkansas
6 Sac Kenny Smith North Carolina
7 Clev Kevin Johnson California
8 Chi Olden Polynice Virginia
9 Sea Derrick McKey Alabama
10 Chi Horace Grant Clemson
11 Ind Reggie Miller UCLA
12 Wash Tyrone Bogues Wake Forest
13 LAC Joe Wolf North Carolina
14 GS Tellis Frank Western Kentucky
15 Utah Jose Ortiz Oregon State
16 Phil Christian Welp Washington
17 Port Ronnie Murphy Jacksonville
18 NY Mark Jackson St. John's
19 LAC Ken Norman Illinois
20 Dall Jim Farmer Alabama
21 Atl Dallas Comegys DePaul
22 Bos Reggie Lewis Northeastern
23 SA Greg Anderson Houston

Edit:
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]1969 DRAFT
[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]First Round
1 Mil Lew Alcindor UCLA
2 Phoe Neal Walk Florida
3 Sea Lucius Allen UCLA
4 Det Terry Driscoll Boston College
5 Chi Larry Cannon La Salle
6 SD Bobby Smith Tulsa
7 SF Bob Portman Creighton
8 Cin Herm Gilliam Purdue
9 Bos Jo Jo White Kansas
10 Atl Butch Beard Louisville
11 NY John Warren St. John's
12 LAL Willie McCarter Drake
13 Phil Carlos Ogden Santa Clara
14 Balt Mike Davis Virginia Union
15 LAL Rick Roberson Cincinnati[/FONT]

 

[TucsonDevil]

good lord above - could you have two bigger superstars with two bigger wastes of space behind them? Anyone know who the 3rd pick of the those drafts were? I've always wondered who we didn't take to draft Walk and The Hammer.

I know that Scottie Pippen was chosen in that draft... pick #5, #6? And that same draft saw Cleveland picking a kid from Cal named Kevin Johnson.

Never mind, I see above I was beaten to the punch....

 

[nathan]

Not me! I'm assuming we get it....the odds are in our favor!

I made a program to calculate the odds. It doesn't take into account ties. If anyone wants to mess around with what the odds will be with ties, all you need to do is open the html file in notepad and change the numbers in this line:
chances=new Array(250,199,156,119,88,63,43,28,17,11,8,7,6,5);

 

[fordronken]

Does anyone know when the lottery is? Do they not schedule it until the playoff schedule is determined?

 

[Sunshooter]

Does anyone know when the lottery is? Do they not schedule it until the playoff schedule is determined?

22 May

 

[hsandhu]

Huge game tonight, as atl beat milwaukee. It looks like milwaukee is in complete tank mode, so looking good atl wont have one of the worst 3 records.

Obviously doesnt guarantee anything when the ping pong balls are drawn, but it makes our odds better.

 

[slinslin]

Atlanta is pretty much locked into the 4th spot now.

They have 6 games left and its at least 2 more wins to climb into 5th and at the same time Milwaukee has 7 games left and needs at least 2 more wins to clib into the 4th spot.

 

[slinslin]

Portland won, Sacramento won, Seattle is currenty winning so they would all be 3 up on Atlanta in the win column.

If Philly and Charlotte win 1 of their remaining games , Atlanta will have to win 3 of their last 6, otherwise they will have the #4 spot in the lottery unless Milwaukee wins more than 2 of 7 which would put Atlanta 3rd in the lottery.

Either way the odds are that we get the #4 pick.

 

[pokerface]

Atlanta is pretty much locked into the 4th spot now.

They have 6 games left and its at least 2 more wins to climb into 5th and at the same time Milwaukee has 7 games left and needs at least 2 more wins to clib into the 4th spot.

I think its looking good but the Hawks do play the Bucks one more time....lets just hope its a non factor game.

 

[JCSunsfan]

So what kind of gamblers are you?

What would you give Atlanta right now to remove their protection on the pick?

I'd strongly consider giving them the two first round picks this year, plus a future 1st--and that could be for nothing.

 

[Folster]

So what kind of gamblers are you?

What would you give Atlanta right now to remove their protection on the pick?

I'd strongly consider giving them the two first round picks this year, plus a future 1st--and that could be for nothing.

Oden or Durant are woth a lot more than a couple late first round picks.

 

[pokerface]

So what kind of gamblers are you?

What would you give Atlanta right now to remove their protection on the pick?

I'd strongly consider giving them the two first round picks this year, plus a future 1st--and that could be for nothing.

Hmm....interesting. I probably would offer them our two other first rounders and throw in our second rounder instead of giving a future first. I guess it works our about the same....

I would consider it because cashing in on that pick now could really secure our future. We would have a strong nucleus of Amare/Barbosa/high draft pick to lead us for a long time. Plus there is a chance of getting Oden or Durant....that alone is worth the price but because of that I'm not sure Atlana would be interested. Plus the Hawks have a bunch of young players now and a pick in this draft. How much youth could they want or handle?

 

[elindholm]

Either way the odds are that we get the #4 pick.

No, if they go into the lottery at #4 they are more likely to drop a spot than stay there.

In any event, if the Suns get the pick, it will probably be at #4 or #5. But then, we've known that for a while.

 

[JCSunsfan]

No, if they go into the lottery at #4 they are more likely to drop a spot than stay there.

In any event, if the Suns get the pick, it will probably be at #4 or #5. But then, we've known that for a while.

OK. But what would you be willing to give up now--pre lottery--to remove the protection on the pick--BTW, not what you think Atlanta would want or be willing to take.

What kind of gambler are you?

 

[JCSunsfan]

Oden or Durant are woth a lot more than a couple late first round picks.

That's true, but since its pre lottery, you are trading for a 40% chance at getting them, and a 60% chance (more or less) of getting nothing in return.

 

[elindholm]

OK. But what would you be willing to give up now--pre lottery--to remove the protection on the pick--BTW, not what you think Atlanta would want or be willing to take.

What kind of gambler are you?

A rational and calculating one, of course.

I haven't thought about the lottery question, because it's complicated an irrelevant. But it's a valid question, so I'll give it a shot.

Without looking up the numbers again, I'll go by memory and say that the Hawks have around a 33% chance, as things currently stand, of landing one of the top two picks. So removing the protection would break down like this:

1/3: Hawks land in the top two, Suns win big
1/6 (or so): Hawks land at #3, Suns win small
1/2: Hawks land #4 or lower, Suns lose, since they bought out the protection for nothing.

Basically, the Suns would be buying a 1/3 chance at Oden or Durant, plus a 1/6 chance at the #3 player, whoever that is. It's more complicated than that, because if they're also giving up the "backup" of the Hawks 2008 pick (i.e. since they'd get it now), but whatever, close enough.

So what's a 1/3 chance at Oden or Durant worth? I guess I'd say not as much as Barbosa. Who has the next highest trade value on the team? Diaw's trade value is negative and Marion's is impossible to assess, given how polarized this board is about him. Maybe Bell, the Cleveland pick, and a future first?

 

[JCSunsfan]

I tend to agree Eric. I don't think Diaw's trade value right now is negative though.

Bell, Cleveland and a 1st, our two firsts this year, and a future. Yeah, something like that.

I would be interested in asking some GM's around the league about Diaw's value at the moment. It seems to me that many on message boards exaggerate trade value in both directions, depending on recent play.