The Atlanta Pick is starting to look really scary for us

[pokerface]

1) We need Bell

2) The Hawks wouldn't want Bell

 

[JS22]

So what kind of gamblers are you?

What would you give Atlanta right now to remove their protection on the pick?

I'd strongly consider giving them the two first round picks this year, plus a future 1st--and that could be for nothing.

Ironically, Diaw!

(Plus a 1st and 2nd.) Unfortunately, I don't think this deal would fly.

 

[JCSunsfan]

I guess I would consider giving alot as insurance against a worst case scenario.

Atlanta lands #1 or #2. Takes Durant or Oden.
Lands a decent FA pg or drafts one with the Indy pick.

Next year we're picking in the mid-teens or worse.

The upside is great, but the downside is horrific.

Hopefully it will be somewhere in the middle, since I don't think we are going to get them to lift the protection.

 

[Joe Mama]

No way in hell Atlanta agrees to remove the protection on the pick unless the Phoenix Suns offered more than they would ever consider truly offering. It just wouldn't happen.

 

[pokerface]

No way in hell Atlanta agrees to remove the protection on the pick unless the Phoenix Suns offered more than they would ever consider truly offering. It just wouldn't happen.

I'd have to agree with that 100%

 

[Mainstreet]

I think it also might be interesting to discuss what players Phoenix may select with their other two first round picks (if they should not get the Atlanta pick). Anyone high on players that Phoenix might select in these draft positions and would Phoenix keep both picks in this scenario?

 

[JCSunsfan]

In other words, there is the very real possibility that this could be another of a very very disappointing string of Phoenix Suns drafts.

The good news is that we will know by May 22.

 

[Mainstreet]

In other words, there is the very real possibility that this could be another of a very very disappointing string of Phoenix Suns drafts.

The good news is that we will know by May 22.

I don't think the draft need be a disaster if Phoenix does not get the Atlanta pick (although it would be a disappointment). What worries me the most is that Phoenix tends to concentrate on drafting only certain players.... and if those players are not there they are not prepared to draft later. This is where Phoenix used to excel at drafting.

 

[dodie53]

can't the suns get/sign a good european/foreign PG? is there an available?

 

[asudevil83]

can't the suns get/sign a good european/foreign PG? is there an available?

Milos Vujanic....lol

 

[The Commish]

Josh Smith suspended two games for tirade against Mike Woodson.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2830897

 

[TheHopToad]

Josh Smith suspended two games for tirade against Mike Woodson.

Good advanced tanking move. They play Boston tomorrow night and it would have been hard to lose with Smith playing.

The Hawks are trying hard to get that 3rd worst record. So far, the Bucks are trying harder...

 

[jbeecham]

Josh Smith suspended two games for tirade against Mike Woodson.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2830897

Probably because Smith refused to tank the game.

 

[azirish]

Is there a chance of 0-0 game?

 

[TheHopToad]

Josh Smith suspended two games for tirade against Mike Woodson.

The Bucks have countered in the tank competition by shutting down Michael Redd for the rest of the year...

Hawks are running out of moves....maybe a Tyronn Lue "injury" next?

 

[Drop D]

Ooh! Maybe Atlanta will sign me to a 10 day contract.

 

[Sunshooter]

16/4 @Bucks will be the most important game for the Suns draft

 

[azirish]

We need to remember that end of the season is not the end of road. Atlanta could still get into the top three even if they stay at fourth if the ping pong balls fall to them or could fall out even if finished third if another team jumps into the top three.

 

[fordronken]

I think it also might be interesting to discuss what players Phoenix may select with their other two first round picks (if they should not get the Atlanta pick). Anyone high on players that Phoenix might select in these draft positions and would Phoenix keep both picks in this scenario?

I've already said it a few times, but I really want Darren Collison at 29.

 

[azirish]

I've already said it a few times, but I really want Darren Collison at 29.

I'm not sure Collison will come out if all he can get is a promise at 29. He's a guy who is likely to get lottery noise if he waits, so the Suns will need to use the Cleveland pick at minimum.

 

[Sunshooter]

I love Boston

 

[Muggum]

It looks like Atlanta is headed for #4 pre-lottery, which is a pretty good spot in terms of risk/reward. In order to move to #3, they'd have to fall further/faster than Milwaukee, who is in utter freefall after benching Redd for the rest of the year.

The next group back is Sacramento/Portland/Seattle. They're each a couple wins ahead of Atlanta, but tanking hard. Sacramento benched Kevin Martin tonight. Portland has no Zach Randolph.

I might actually prefer a #5 or 6 pre-lottery spot. Sacrifice a little reward for a little less risk.

Overall, it's shaping up pretty nicely. Earlier this year, I feared Atlanta would get good enough to make the playoffs. Then I feared they'd end up rock-bottom. As is, they're landing pretty nicely in the 4-5 range.

 

[Muggum]

Just re-looked at it. I think overall it's best to be in the #5 slot pre-lottery. So maybe Atlanta can pass either Sacto, Seattle, or Portland.

 

[pokerface]

Just re-looked at it. I think overall it's best to be in the #5 slot pre-lottery. So maybe Atlanta can pass either Sacto, Seattle, or Portland.

Gee Muggum, I wrote this really long post prior for you but it hasnt seem to have had an affect on ya....wonder why. I'd rather have 3rd slot than 5th.

I'm no math whiz but I crunched the numbers a different way to show why fourth best record is the best place to be in and ALSO to show a lessor known fact that third worst record is better than fifth worst record.


3rd worst record

odds getting #1, #2 or #3 are 46.9%
odds getting #4 or #5 are 49.1%
odds getting #6 are 4.0%


4th worst record

odds getting #1, #2 or #3 are 37.8%
odds getting #4 or #5 are 60.9%
odds getting #6 are 1.2%


5th worst record

odds getting #1, #2 or #3 are 29.1%
odds getting #4 are 0.0%
odds getting #5, #6 or #7 are 70.6%


So what does this all mean?

Well with the 4th worst record we have a 62% chance of cashing in on that pick....and the picks are real good at the #4 and #5 spots. So we have a better than even chance of getting great picks.

The 3rd worst record isnt so bad because we still have a 53% chance of collecting on the pick....plus if we collect the picks are in a very good range of 4-6 (49% chance of getting #4 or #5). If we have to gamble thats not such a bad place to be in.

Now the 5th worst record I have a problem with. True there is only a 29% chance of cracking the top three with it but the odds arn't so small that it can be discounted. We have ZERO chance of getting the 4th pick which really blows. There is a 62% chance of getting the #5 or #6 which I guess is the safer but not so glamorous road to travel on. Then there is a 8% chance of getting #7 which is not so small it cant be discounted.

I just think by taking on a little additional risk the rewards are so much greater with the 3rd worst record than the 5th worst record. 4th worst record is best of both worlds IMO.

 

[azirish]

Obviously the risk of Atlanta getting into the top three is quite real, but staying in the four or five slot reduces it substantially.

From a drafting standpoint, the only guy I want listed in the 3 to 7 slots is Horford. He could end up at either end based on workouts. There are several quality prospect left, but none fit the Suns primary need as well.

In any case, the Suns cannot afford for Atlanta getting into the top three if the Suns hope to get a rotation player.