The Ayton Plan

[Covert Rain]

It's not a question of spending money, but of what you spend it on. The Suns had an above-average payroll last season, and that's before Bridges's extension kicks in. The "Sarver is cheap" trope has been shown to be false. He has many other weaknesses, of course.



I disagree that he has a very high floor. He hasn't done a good job staying available to play (he's played in about 75% of his team's games, over his career), and his offensive numbers have benefitted from playing with a Hall-of-Fame point guard, who "makes everyone better."

Do you see him as the kind of player who could go to a mediocre team and lead them to a higher win total? I don't. How often did we see him lead the Suns offensively, even for part of a game, when he wasn't riding shotgun to either Paul or Booker? Very rarely. And how often did he stop trying on defense, before either Paul or Williams held him accountable and got his head back into the game? Pretty often. How well can he realistically be projected to perform if he doesn't have that support network?

Is anyone really worried that the Suns are going to meet Ayton's future team in a playoff series and he's going to dominate his former squad? I'm sure not.

I change my mind a lot. At the moment I'm in favor of keeping him, but I can sure sympathize with the arguments for letting him go.

I agree with a lot of what you said. However, this part about him leading the Suns offensively isn't really a good valuation of his offensive game. I am not sure we really know how much higher the ceiling is here. We have seen him get better each year while most of the time on the court being a 3rd option. Heck maybe even a 4th if you count all the three-point setups. This offense revolves around the guards and cuts to the basket.

Do you honestly think if Ayton had been drafted by the Spurs that Pop would have used him the same way? Not a chance. He likely would be at least the 2nd option I think his overall offensive game (creating his own shot) would be much further along. I wouldn't be shocked one bit if Ayton goes to another team he easily becomes a 20 PPG scorer. The rest of his game I don't see changing much.

 

[Mainstreet]

A question floating in my head, is not giving Ayton the 5 year max last off season a result of a GM decision, a coaching decision or a combination of both.

If it was strictly money / ownership issue, this does not bode well for the future.

I have to think not picking up the option on Jalen Smith was at least partially money related. Not giving the 10th pick at least a third year option sure seems that way.

Sometimes I think James Jones has a limited budget and he has to decide where to spend the money and where to make cuts.

 

[Bufalay]

That was about my memory. He's a math nerd who could spin a yarn about advanced stats, and somehow worked his way into a front-office position, through which it was discovered that he doesn't understand anything about basketball. A classic example of the Peter Principle.

Agreed, his PER was one of the first main-streamed advanced metrics which is really flawed (Chuck Hayes was always in the top 10).

However, in this instance he's reporting "insider" info and I guess he might still be considered an insider.

 

[Dr. Jones]

A question floating in my head, is not giving Ayton the 5 year max last off season a result of a GM decision, a coaching decision or a combination of both.

If it was strictly money / ownership issue, this does not bode well for the future.

I have to think not picking up the option on Jalen Smith was at least partially money related. Not giving the 10th pick at least a third year option sure seems that way.

I really think it was due to the fact that they have pretty solid control for the next two years (at that point) and they knew he wasn't worth the long term maximum commitment.

I don't see the money piece on this one. With Paul's new contract they had the flexibility. Maxing him last year may have cost us Shamet though. And he's another moveable piece this offseason when paired with Jae and other assets.

 

[Mainstreet]

I really think it was due to the fact that they have pretty solid control for the next two years (at that point) and they knew he wasn't worth the long term maximum commitment.

I don't see the money piece on this one. With Paul's new contract they had the flexibility. Maxing him last year may have cost us Shamet though. And he's another moveable piece this offseason when paired with Jae and other assets.

I'd not quite clear on what you are saying.

I don't view Shamet as much of an asset on a multi-year contract although not all of it is guaranteed.

 

[elindholm]

Yeah, I'm not so much saying that Sarver is cheap, moreso that he's not willing to do whatever it takes to win. It's an important distinction, and what separates the haves and have nots in sports.

Uh, he's been incredibly healthy for a 7 footer. Yeah, the suspension was stupid, but I'd be much more concerned if it were an injury absence.

I could understand that concern, if Ayton didn't put up better numbers with CP gone this year.

3 Phoenix Suns Players Show Silver Linings from Chris Paul’s Injury

The Phoenix Suns sure missed Chris Paul, but in his absence, they got some solid returns from three guys who could be crucial int he playoffs.

valleyofthesuns.com

Paul not being able to suit up impacted the entire Suns lineup, but many pointed to Deandre Ayton as the player who would be most affected. After all, Ayton is Paul’s pick-and-roll mate; rolls account for nearly a third of Ayton’s points total.

However, the exact opposite happened, as Ayton went on an absolute tear even without the Point God.

In those 15 games without CP3, Ayton averaged 19.5 points per game on 67.0 percent shooting—both up from his season averages. He looked as confident as ever shooting the midrange, taking jumpers without hesitation.



Absolutely! Players who are incredibly efficient and play good D typically make their teams better.

Is that an indictment of Ayton, or more a function of an offense that emphasizes ball movement and hitting the open man vs. feeding individual players?

I don't know if he's ready to take 30 shots a game, but I think Ayton could comfortably shoot more.

I have no idea how you would quantify that. I watched almost every game, and although his focus can wane at times, DA is also the most important player on our D.

Perhaps people won't realize this until he's gone.


You're basically getting an efficient 20/10, with good D no matter what. At 24, I'll take the chance.

We've seen Ayton dominate playoff series before, I definitely wouldn't want to face him in the playoffs for 10 years.

Yeah, he's not perfect, but he's proven to be well worth a max contract at this point for me. If not the Suns, there will be plenty of other teams willing to take a shot on Ayton.

Well, I hope they keep him and you prove to be right! There's definitely a chance.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Well, I hope they keep him and you prove to be right! There's definitely a chance.

It's Arizona sports - I already have my cup on, fully prepped for the next major kick in the nuts.

 

[Mainstreet]

It's Arizona sports - I already have my cup on, fully prepped for the next major kick in the nuts.

It feels like Valley sports is on a downswing although the Cardinals and Suns have played relatively well of late.

However, lots of questions about the big three at ASU: football, baseball and basketball.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I'd not quite clear on what you are saying.

I don't view Shamet as much of an asset on a multi-year contract although not all of it is guaranteed.

Shamet, Craig, and Payne all have moveable salaries with very short term commitments. For a team looking to create space they could be gold.

Any player looking to leave their current situation could force their way to a better one. For example, all these 20mil per salaries out there could be gotten if they pout and we pounce. Why S&T Ayton when you may be able to get Jerami Grant for picks, players, and relief?

Not saying it comes to that, but we have serious flexibility within our contract pool. And we need to upgrade our PF spot, not our center spot.

 

[Folster]

If the Suns have any sense, they will get at least one first rounder. We at least have to have a chance of coming out ahead on the deal.

What we've seen over the past few decades is that later 1st rounders and early 2nds are invaluable to maintaining a championship contender. The low cost talent infusion is invaluable. Shamet was a total whiff that was compounded by the contract before he even played a game for us.

 

[Mainstreet]

Shamet, Craig, and Payne all have moveable salaries with very short term commitments. For a team looking to create space they could be gold.

Any player looking to leave their current situation could force their way to a better one. For example, all these 20mil per salaries out there could be gotten if they pout and we pounce. Why S&T Ayton when you may be able to get Jerami Grant for picks, players, and relief?

Not saying it comes to that, but we have serious flexibility within our contract pool. And we need to upgrade our PF spot, not our center spot.

Shamet is not quick salary cap relief as he is not on an expiring contract.

Crowder and Saric could be traded for Jerami Grant but why would the Pistons do the trade without the Suns attaching draft picks? Grant figures to be in demand this off season.

He is an expiring contract as well.

 

[GatorAZ]

I was talking about a 5 year contract but it appears that was never on the table at least for the amount Ayton's camp wanted.

The Suns couldn’t give a big man with DA’s limitations the 5/180 he wanted and they weren’t hearing anything less which was a mistake by his agent. Something like 4 years at a slightly higher number than the RFA max would’ve been a logical compromise.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Shamet is not quick salary cap relief as he is not on an expiring contract.

Crowder and Saric could be traded for Jerami Grant but why would the Pistons do the trade without the Suns attaching draft picks? Grant figures to be in demand this off season.

He is an expiring contract as well.

Well, it would take some doing.

First, Grant would need to demand a new deal and holdout or even say, I'm never playing for you again.
We would then need to offer some 1st rounders and Jae/Saric to make it work IIRC.

First though, we need to exhaust the Durant/Lillard possibilities before even exploring this.

 

[Mainstreet]

The Suns couldn’t give a big man with DA’s limitations the 5/180 he wanted and they weren’t hearing anything less which was a mistake by his agent. Something like 4 years at a slightly higher number than the RFA max would’ve been a logical compromise.

Yeah. It never hurts to negotiate. Now it may have reached a point where it's similar to the Joe Johnson situation.

 

[Folster]

Yeah. It never hurts to negotiate. Now it may have reached a point where it's similar to the Joe Johnson situation.

Since it was brought up, this is what Joe Johnson netted us.

The Phoenix Suns today completed a sign-and-trade deal with the Atlanta Hawks that will send restricted free-agent guard Joe Johnson to Atlanta in exchange for guard/forward Boris Diaw (pronounced DEE-ow) and two future first-round draft picks. This trade also leaves Phoenix with a $6 million trade exception for their use in future dealings.

The Suns will receive Atlanta's own first round pick no later than the 2008 NBA Draft. That pick which is "lottery" protected (1-14) in 2006, has protection through No. 3 in 2007 and has no protection in 2008. In addition the Suns will also receive a conditional first round pick via either the Los Angeles Lakers or Boston Celtics from an earlier trade between Boston and Atlanta. The Laker pick which is subject to protection through No. 10 in 2006, protection through No. 5 in draft years 2007-2010 and unconditional in 2011, is owed to Boston from yet another previous trade. In the year that the Laker pick is conveyed to Boston, Phoenix will receive the least favorable of Boston's own pick or the Laker pick.

So that ended up being:

-Boris Diaw
-2008 #15: Robin Lopez (after narrowly missing out on the 2007 #4 pick) Rotten luck!
-2006 #21: Rajon Rondo who we traded with Brian Grant for a 2007 1st that ended up being #24 Rudy Fernandez who we traded with James Jones to Portland for cash.

TLDR: Diaw, Lopez and cash for Joe Johnson.

Had we kept Rondo it would've been a nice return and if we hit with the #4 it would have been amazing. God that pick selling era was miserable.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Since it was brought up, this is what Joe Johnson netted us.



So that ended up being:

-Boris Diaw
-2008 #15: Robin Lopez (after narrowly missing out on the 2007 #4 pick) Rotten luck!
-2006 #21: Rajon Rondo who we traded with Brian Grant for a 2007 1st that ended up being Rudy Fernandez who was traded to Portland for cash.

TLDR: Diaw, Lopez and cash for Joe Johnson.

Had we kept Rondo it would've been a nice return and if we hit with the #4 it would have been amazing. God that pick selling era was miserable.

Rondo was a real problem, I seriously doubt our team could have handled him. Even with the talented veterans that Boston had, they had their hands full dealing with him. But at least maybe we'd have had a chance to use him and perhaps trade him when he butted heads with out coach one too many times.

 

[Folster]

Rondo was a real problem, I seriously doubt our team could have handled him. Even with the talented veterans that Boston had, they had their hands full dealing with him. But at least maybe we'd have had a chance to use him and perhaps trade him when he butted heads with out coach one too many times.

I would've preferred him to cash considerations. I have no confidence D'Antoni would have utilized him properly. But Nash and Rondo would've been quite the playmaking duo letting Nash play off the ball at times for spot up shooting. Rondo was also a fantastic defender. Imagine 3/5ths of a defensive line-up being Rondo, Raja, Marion. What could have been.

 

[Mainstreet]

Since it was brought up, this is what Joe Johnson netted us.



So that ended up being:

-Boris Diaw
-2008 #15: Robin Lopez (after narrowly missing out on the 2007 #4 pick) Rotten luck!
-2006 #21: Rajon Rondo who we traded with Brian Grant for a 2007 1st that ended up being #24 Rudy Fernandez who we traded to Portland for cash.

TLDR: Diaw, Lopez and cash for Joe Johnson.

Had we kept Rondo it would've been a nice return and if we hit with the #4 it would have been amazing. God that pick selling era was miserable.

Ironically the Suns are again looking for polished players much like the D'Antoni era. Maybe that part rubbed off on James Jones.

 

[Folster]

Ironically the Suns are again looking for polished players much like the D'Antoni era. Maybe that part rubbed off on James Jones.

I forgot to mention James Jones was included with Rudy Fernandez to Portland for cash.

 

[Mainstreet]

I forgot to mention James Jones was included with Rudy Fernandez to Portland for cash.

Hopefully the NBA investigation concludes before July 1st.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Yeah, I'm not so much saying that Sarver is cheap, moreso that he's not willing to do whatever it takes to win. It's an important distinction, and what separates the haves and have nots in sports.

Uh, he's been incredibly healthy for a 7 footer. Yeah, the suspension was stupid, but I'd be much more concerned if it were an injury absence.

I could understand that concern, if Ayton didn't put up better numbers with CP gone this year.

3 Phoenix Suns Players Show Silver Linings from Chris Paul’s Injury

The Phoenix Suns sure missed Chris Paul, but in his absence, they got some solid returns from three guys who could be crucial int he playoffs.

valleyofthesuns.com

Paul not being able to suit up impacted the entire Suns lineup, but many pointed to Deandre Ayton as the player who would be most affected. After all, Ayton is Paul’s pick-and-roll mate; rolls account for nearly a third of Ayton’s points total.

However, the exact opposite happened, as Ayton went on an absolute tear even without the Point God.

In those 15 games without CP3, Ayton averaged 19.5 points per game on 67.0 percent shooting—both up from his season averages. He looked as confident as ever shooting the midrange, taking jumpers without hesitation.



Absolutely! Players who are incredibly efficient and play good D typically make their teams better.

Is that an indictment of Ayton, or more a function of an offense that emphasizes ball movement and hitting the open man vs. feeding individual players?

I don't know if he's ready to take 30 shots a game, but I think Ayton could comfortably shoot more.

I have no idea how you would quantify that. I watched almost every game, and although his focus can wane at times, DA is also the most important player on our D.

Perhaps people won't realize this until he's gone.


You're basically getting an efficient 20/10, with good D no matter what. At 24, I'll take the chance.

We've seen Ayton dominate playoff series before, I definitely wouldn't want to face him in the playoffs for 10 years.

Yeah, he's not perfect, but he's proven to be well worth a max contract at this point for me. If not the Suns, there will be plenty of other teams willing to take a shot on Ayton.

I am in the keep Ayton camp but it speaks volumes that some describe his play as being on an absolute tear that resulted in . . . 19.5 pts/game.

And his “dominating” the playoffs was 18.2 pts and 11.5 rebounds per game.

The truth is, neither of those are really accurate descriptions. Not when you compare him to the top tier stars in the league. He was “on a tear” and “dominating” compared to his own norms, but not really when compared to actual stars in the league.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I am in the keep Ayton camp but it speaks volumes that some describe his play as being on an absolute tear that resulted in . . . 19.5 pts/game.

And his “dominating” the playoffs was 18.2 pts and 11.5 rebounds per game.

The truth is, neither of those are really accurate descriptions. Not when you compare him to the top tier stars in the league. He was “on a tear” and “dominating” compared to his own norms, but not really when compared to actual stars in the league.

Our brains scare me. I typed out almost the exact same thing then decided against posting because I didn’t want the Michael Stone’s Mom brigade bearing down on me (no pun intended).

 

[GatorAZ]

The Suns had no interest in Rondo, he was drafted for the Celtics. Not sure he wouldn’t have gotten the Banks treatment anyway…. Out of all the draft day decisions from that era punting on the 04’ draft was the worst. You’re simply not picking that high again and we needed cheap depth.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The Suns had no interest in Rondo, he was drafted for the Celtics. Not sure he wouldn’t have gotten the Banks treatment anyway…. Out of all the draft day decisions from that era punting on the 04’ draft was the worst. You’re simply not picking that high again and we needed cheap depth.

I was a big rondo fan coming out so I was really bummed we gave him away. And yeah, punting in ‘04 was idiotic.

 

[Mainstreet]

I was a big rondo fan coming out so I was really bummed we gave him away. And yeah, punting in ‘04 was idiotic.

Suns got Jackson Vroman out of the 2004 draft at #31.